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Georgia Tech 22, Florida State 16: Yellow Jackets get major perseverance points

Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

FSUgtwp

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team Win Probability Before Play

Home Team Win Probability Added

1

158

Florida State

4

6

38

4

FIELD GOAL BLOCKED

0.495

0.505

2

42

Georgia Tech

3

5

56

2

Justin Thomas Pass INTERCEPTED

0.568

-0.222

3

141

Georgia Tech

4

6

59

4

Justin Thomas Pass to Brad Stewart for 36

0.366

0.183

4

67

Georgia Tech

2

6

60

2

Justin Thomas Rush for 60, TOUCHDOWN

0.233

0.177

5

127

Florida State

3

10

10

4

Everett Golson Pass INTERCEPTED

0.239

0.173

From Matt Mills:

My model Home Team Win Probability Before Playicted that the game was basically a toss-up when Aguayo lined up for his field goal. I think this gives GT a much better shot than we actually had, but I think we can get a better estimate with some loose math. There are basically three outcomes on this play, Aguayo missis the kick and Tech goes to overtime, he makes it and we lose, or the actual block six that occurred. Aguayo is a phenomenal kicker but I'm not comfortable putting the odds of him making a 56 yards field goal better than 50/50. If he misses and we go to OT let's say our chances of winning are conservatively 50% but realistically maybe closer to 30-40%, I wouldn't trust us winning a kicking battle with Butker's struggles this year. And then the odds of what actually happened are, I dunno, 1 in 10,000 (about 800 games a year, maybe an average of 4 field goals a game, a block and return happens maybe once every three years? That would be 1 in 9600). So we get: GT odds of winning = (49.995% * 0%) + (49.995% * 35%) + (0.01% * 100%) = 17% chance of winning. Give or take some percentages.

Georgia Tech 22, Florida State 16

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Florida State Georgia Tech Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 58 59
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 37.5 21.4 29.6
Possessions 10 9
Scoring Opportunities*
5 4
Points Per Opportunity 3.20 4.00 4.76
Leverage Rate** 67.2% 66.1% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.529 0.547 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Florida State Georgia Tech
Total 25.1 27.6
Rushing 8.2 23.2
Passing 16.9 4.4
Success Rate (what's this?) Florida State Georgia Tech Nat'l Avg
All (close) 36.2% 33.9% 41.6%
Rushing (close) 33.3% 37.5% 42.5%
Passing (close) 38.2% 18.2% 40.8%
Standard Downs 33.3% 43.6% 47.0%
Passing Downs 42.1% 15.0% 30.2%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Florida State Georgia Tech Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.20 1.38 1.26
Rushing (close) 1.03 1.29 1.08
Passing (close) 1.30 2.18 1.47
Standard Downs 1.09 1.19 1.11
Passing Downs 1.37 2.44 1.78
Line Stats Florida State Georgia Tech Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.24 3.21 2.85
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 11.8% 0.0% 4.9%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 5.9% 11.1% 7.4%
Turnovers Florida State Georgia Tech
Turnovers 1 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 5.8 14.3
Turnover Margin Florida State +1
Exp. TO Margin Georgia Tech +0.07
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Florida State +1.07
TO Points Margin Florida State +8.5 points
Situational Florida State Georgia Tech
Q1 S&P 0.336 0.492
Q2 S&P 0.653 0.721
Q3 S&P 0.398 0.519
Q4 S&P 0.561 0.567
1st Down S&P 0.512 0.606
2nd Down S&P 0.490 0.408
3rd Down S&P 0.673 0.717
Projected Scoring Margin: Florida State by 6.0
Actual Scoring Margin: Georgia Tech by 6

We probably should have guessed that it would be Georgia Tech that ended FSU's long conference winning streak -- the Jackets had come as close as anybody to ending it before, losing 37-35 in last year's ACC title game and 21-15 in 2012's. And what a way to end it.

Hell of a perseverance job here by Tech, by the way. Never mind the ending -- Georgia Tech had lost five games in a row, three by one possession, and they had to deal with a couple of early turnovers. The Yellow Jackets could have folded. Instead, they overcame a drastic fied position disadvantage with ... defense! The offense bailed itself out just enough on passing downs, and the defense came through in a major way. Hell of a result for Paul Johnson's squad.