Georgia Tech 22, Florida State 16: Yellow Jackets get major perseverance points

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From Matt Mills:

My model Home Team Win Probability Before Playicted that the game was basically a toss-up when Aguayo lined up for his field goal. I think this gives GT a much better shot than we actually had, but I think we can get a better estimate with some loose math. There are basically three outcomes on this play, Aguayo missis the kick and Tech goes to overtime, he makes it and we lose, or the actual block six that occurred. Aguayo is a phenomenal kicker but I'm not comfortable putting the odds of him making a 56 yards field goal better than 50/50. If he misses and we go to OT let's say our chances of winning are conservatively 50% but realistically maybe closer to 30-40%, I wouldn't trust us winning a kicking battle with Butker's struggles this year. And then the odds of what actually happened are, I dunno, 1 in 10,000 (about 800 games a year, maybe an average of 4 field goals a game, a block and return happens maybe once every three years? That would be 1 in 9600). So we get: GT odds of winning = (49.995% * 0%) + (49.995% * 35%) + (0.01% * 100%) = 17% chance of winning. Give or take some percentages.

Georgia Tech 22, Florida State 16

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We probably should have guessed that it would be Georgia Tech that ended FSU's long conference winning streak -- the Jackets had come as close as anybody to ending it before, losing 37-35 in last year's ACC title game and 21-15 in 2012's. And what a way to end it.

Hell of a perseverance job here by Tech, by the way. Never mind the ending -- Georgia Tech had lost five games in a row, three by one possession, and they had to deal with a couple of early turnovers. The Yellow Jackets could have folded. Instead, they overcame a drastic fied position disadvantage with ... defense! The offense bailed itself out just enough on passing downs, and the defense came through in a major way. Hell of a result for Paul Johnson's squad.