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Appalachian State 31, Georgia Southern 13: So you've noticed how good ASU is, right?

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Joshua S. Kelly-USA TODAY Sports

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Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team Win Probability Before Play

Home Team Win Probability Added

1

25

Georgia Southern

3

19

72

1

Kevin Ellison Pass to Myles Campbell for 19, FIRST DOWN

0.486

-0.135

2

49

Appalachian State

1

65

65

2

PENALTY

0.523

0.093

3

22

Georgia Southern

3

9

74

1

Kevin Ellison Rush for 11, FIRST DOWN

0.466

-0.086

4

24

Georgia Southern

2

10

63

1

Matt Breida Rush for -9

0.405

0.081

5

63

Appalachian State

2

12

41

2

Taylor Lamb Pass to Marcus Cox for 30, FIRST DOWN

0.722

0.078

Appalachian State 31, Georgia Southern 13

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Appalachian State Georgia Southern Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 68 51
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 75.6%
Avg Starting FP 32.1 24.9 29.6
Possessions 11 10
Scoring Opportunities*
7 3
Points Per Opportunity 4.43 4.67 4.76
Leverage Rate** 67.4% 56.1% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.632 0.486 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Appalachian State Georgia Southern
Total 41.5 23.0
Rushing 22.5 17.3
Passing 19.0 5.7
Success Rate (what's this?) Appalachian State Georgia Southern Nat'l Avg
All (close) 40.8% 34.2% 41.6%
Rushing (close) 33.3% 35.5% 42.5%
Passing (close) 52.6% 30.0% 40.8%
Standard Downs 39.4% 39.1% 47.0%
Passing Downs 43.8% 27.8% 30.2%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Appalachian State Georgia Southern Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.53 1.06 1.26
Rushing (close) 1.25 0.90 1.08
Passing (close) 1.80 1.68 1.47
Standard Downs 1.31 1.22 1.11
Passing Downs 1.93 0.79 1.78
Line Stats Appalachian State Georgia Southern Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.03 2.03 2.85
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 8.3% 0.0% 4.9%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 16.7% 7.4%
Turnovers Appalachian State Georgia Southern
Turnovers 0 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 0.0 6.1
Turnover Margin Appalachian State +2
Exp. TO Margin Appalachian State +0.22
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Appalachian State +1.78
TO Points Margin Appalachian State +6.1 points
Situational Appalachian State Georgia Southern
Q1 S&P 0.646 0.609
Q2 S&P 0.651 0.238
Q3 S&P 0.633 0.454
Q4 S&P 0.688 0.725
1st Down S&P 0.639 0.505
2nd Down S&P 0.583 0.581
3rd Down S&P 0.702 0.449
Projected Scoring Margin: Appalachian State by 24.6
Actual Scoring Margin: Appalachian State by 18

So ... you've noticed how well the Mountaineers have been playing, right? They got whipped by Clemson and have beaten everybody else on the (admittedly not incredibly hard) schedule by an average score of 43-7. From the "it's not who you play, it's how" perspective, ASU is playing really, really well. Like, "top 30 in both Off. S&P+ and Def. S&P+" well.

When I was previewing ASU this offseason, I didn't know how to treat last season's late hot streak. There were such distinct poles between their early-season and late-season form that I wasn't sure what that meant moving forward.

It meant good things. Georgia Southern is a strong team, and ASU outplayed the Eagles in just about every way.