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Top 5 Plays
|
|
Play Number |
Offense |
Down |
Distance |
Spot |
Quarter |
Play Description |
Home Team Win Probability Before Play |
Home Team Win Probability Added |
|
1 |
25 |
Georgia Southern |
3 |
19 |
72 |
1 |
Kevin Ellison Pass to Myles Campbell for 19, FIRST DOWN |
0.486 |
-0.135 |
|
2 |
49 |
Appalachian State |
1 |
65 |
65 |
2 |
PENALTY |
0.523 |
0.093 |
|
3 |
22 |
Georgia Southern |
3 |
9 |
74 |
1 |
Kevin Ellison Rush for 11, FIRST DOWN |
0.466 |
-0.086 |
|
4 |
24 |
Georgia Southern |
2 |
10 |
63 |
1 |
Matt Breida Rush for -9 |
0.405 |
0.081 |
|
5 |
63 |
Appalachian State |
2 |
12 |
41 |
2 |
Taylor Lamb Pass to Marcus Cox for 30, FIRST DOWN |
0.722 |
0.078 |
Appalachian State 31, Georgia Southern 13
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Appalachian State | Georgia Southern | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 68 | 51 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 75.6% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 32.1 | 24.9 | 29.6 |
| Possessions | 11 | 10 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
7 | 3 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 4.43 | 4.67 | 4.76 |
| Leverage Rate** | 67.4% | 56.1% | 68.1% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.632 | 0.486 | 0.586 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
|||
| EqPts (what's this?) | Appalachian State | Georgia Southern | |
| Total | 41.5 | 23.0 | |
| Rushing | 22.5 | 17.3 | |
| Passing | 19.0 | 5.7 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Appalachian State | Georgia Southern | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 40.8% | 34.2% | 41.6% |
| Rushing (close) | 33.3% | 35.5% | 42.5% |
| Passing (close) | 52.6% | 30.0% | 40.8% |
| Standard Downs | 39.4% | 39.1% | 47.0% |
| Passing Downs | 43.8% | 27.8% | 30.2% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Appalachian State | Georgia Southern | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.53 | 1.06 | 1.26 |
| Rushing (close) | 1.25 | 0.90 | 1.08 |
| Passing (close) | 1.80 | 1.68 | 1.47 |
| Standard Downs | 1.31 | 1.22 | 1.11 |
| Passing Downs | 1.93 | 0.79 | 1.78 |
| Line Stats | Appalachian State | Georgia Southern | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.03 | 2.03 | 2.85 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 8.3% | 0.0% | 4.9% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 16.7% | 7.4% |
| Turnovers | Appalachian State | Georgia Southern |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 0 | 2 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 0.0 | 6.1 |
| Turnover Margin | Appalachian State +2 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Appalachian State +0.22 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Appalachian State +1.78 | |
| TO Points Margin | Appalachian State +6.1 points | |
| Situational | Appalachian State | Georgia Southern |
| Q1 S&P | 0.646 | 0.609 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.651 | 0.238 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.633 | 0.454 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.688 | 0.725 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.639 | 0.505 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.583 | 0.581 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.702 | 0.449 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Appalachian State by 24.6 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Appalachian State by 18 | ||
So ... you've noticed how well the Mountaineers have been playing, right? They got whipped by Clemson and have beaten everybody else on the (admittedly not incredibly hard) schedule by an average score of 43-7. From the "it's not who you play, it's how" perspective, ASU is playing really, really well. Like, "top 30 in both Off. S&P+ and Def. S&P+" well.
When I was previewing ASU this offseason, I didn't know how to treat last season's late hot streak. There were such distinct poles between their early-season and late-season form that I wasn't sure what that meant moving forward.
It meant good things. Georgia Southern is a strong team, and ASU outplayed the Eagles in just about every way.
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