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Top 5 Plays
|
Play Number |
Offense |
Down |
Distance |
Spot |
Quarter |
Play Description |
Home Team Win Probability Before Play |
Home Team Win Probability Added |
1 |
57 |
Utah |
3 |
3 |
58 |
2 |
Travis Wilson Pass INTERCEPTED |
0.308 |
0.219 |
2 |
91 |
Utah |
4 |
2 |
45 |
2 |
Travis Wilson Pass INTERCEPTED |
0.786 |
0.147 |
3 |
79 |
USC |
2 |
18 |
18 |
2 |
Ronald Jones II Rush for 18, TOUCHDOWN |
0.658 |
0.113 |
4 |
34 |
USC |
3 |
7 |
88 |
1 |
Cody Kessler Rush for -9 |
0.489 |
-0.098 |
5 |
11 |
USC |
3 |
4 |
82 |
1 |
Cody Kessler Pass to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 19 |
0.505 |
0.091 |
USC 42, Utah 24
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
Basics | USC | Utah | Nat'l Avg |
---|---|---|---|
Total Plays | 74 | 64 | |
Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 75.4% | ||
Avg Starting FP | 32.9 | 29.7 | 29.6 |
Possessions | 12 | 13 | |
Scoring Opportunities* |
7 | 4 | |
Points Per Opportunity | 5.00 | 6.00 | 4.76 |
Leverage Rate** | 78.6% | 75.0% | 68.1% |
Close S&P*** | 0.561 | 0.513 | 0.586 |
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
|||
EqPts (what's this?) | USC | Utah | |
Total | 35.6 | 30.5 | |
Rushing | 13.3 | 9.3 | |
Passing | 22.3 | 21.2 | |
Success Rate (what's this?) | USC | Utah | Nat'l Avg |
All (close) | 44.6% | 41.7% | 41.6% |
Rushing (close) | 39.3% | 45.5% | 42.5% |
Passing (close) | 50.0% | 38.5% | 40.8% |
Standard Downs | 38.6% | 47.2% | 47.0% |
Passing Downs | 66.7% | 25.0% | 30.2% |
IsoPPP (what's this?) | USC | Utah | Nat'l Avg |
All (close) | 1.02 | 0.90 | 1.26 |
Rushing (close) | 0.81 | 0.75 | 1.08 |
Passing (close) | 1.19 | 1.04 | 1.47 |
Standard Downs | 0.87 | 0.90 | 1.11 |
Passing Downs | 1.35 | 0.85 | 1.78 |
Line Stats | USC | Utah | Nat'l Avg |
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 2.01 | 3.12 | 2.85 |
Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 5.0% | 6.3% | 4.9% |
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 25.0% | 0.0% | 7.4% |
Turnovers | USC | Utah |
---|---|---|
Turnovers | 0 | 4 |
Turnover Points (what's this?) | 0.0 | 27.5 |
Turnover Margin | USC +4 | |
Exp. TO Margin | USC +1.61 | |
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | USC +2.39 | |
TO Points Margin | USC +27.5 points | |
Situational | USC | Utah |
Q1 S&P | 0.644 | 0.721 |
Q2 S&P | 0.604 | 0.397 |
Q3 S&P | 0.460 | 0.477 |
Q4 S&P | 0.608 | 0.714 |
1st Down S&P | 0.575 | 0.577 |
2nd Down S&P | 0.466 | 0.663 |
3rd Down S&P | 0.713 | 0.540 |
Projected Scoring Margin: USC by 32.6 | ||
Actual Scoring Margin: USC by 18 |
This shall forever be known as the Cam F*ing Smith Game: three INTs, one of them a pick six.
Utah made an effort to go over the middle, doing so with 41% of its passes. But USC's defense, Smith especially, responded to the challenge and made life difficult for Travis Wilson. A bonus of three key turnovers (the fourth was a garbage time INT on a hail mary) was the subsequent benefit on USC's average starting field position (32.9, their best since the Arkansas State game).
Formations/Basics
Utah | USC | |||
Backs-Wide | % of Plays | Yds/Play | % of Plays | Yds/Play |
0 backs, 4 wide | 1.4% | 0.0 | ||
0 backs, 5 wide | 3.1% | 3.0 | 2.7% | 7.0 |
1 back, 2 wide | 1.6% | 0.0 | 15.1% | 8.4 |
1 back, 3 wide | 14.1% | 3.1 | 23.3% | 2.8 |
1 back, 4 wide | 48.4% | 6.5 | 20.5% | 6.1 |
2 backs, 2 wide | 9.4% | 10.5 | 20.5% | 4.9 |
2 backs, 3 wide | 23.4% | 3.6 | 11.0% | 7.0 |
3 backs, 1 wide | 1.4% | 0.0 | ||
3 backs, 2 wide | 4.1% | 2.3 |
No Huddle? | % of Plays | Yds/Play |
Utah | 100.0% | 5.5 |
USC | 98.6% | 5.3 |
Utah | USC | |||
Hash | % of Plays | Yds/Play | % of Plays | Yds/Play |
Left | 45.3% | 5.2 | 42.5% | 4.5 |
Middle | 14.1% | 6.3 | 6.8% | 3.6 |
Right | 40.6% | 5.6 | 50.7% | 6.0 |
Passing
Utah | USC | |||||
Passing | Comp Rt | Yds/Pass | Passing | Comp Rt | Yds/Pass | |
Behind Line | 9-10, 102 yards | 90.0% | 10.2 | 7-7, 51 yards | 100.0% | 7.3 |
0 to 4 | 5-8, 35 yards | 62.5% | 4.4 | 7-9, 76 yards | 77.8% | 8.4 |
5 to 9 | 6-12, 41 yards | 50.0% | 3.4 | 3-4, 35 yards | 75.0% | 8.8 |
10 to 19 | 3-3, 55 yards | 100.0% | 18.3 | 2-3, 48 yards | 66.7% | 16.0 |
20 to 29 | 1-2, 21 yards | 50.0% | 10.5 | 2-4, 54 yards | 50.0% | 13.5 |
30-plus | 0-1, 0 yards | 0.0% | 0.0 | 0-2, 0 yards | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Utah | USC | |
% Blitz: | 20.5% | 39.4% |
Avg. Rushers | 4.1 | 4.4 |
Passing (no blitz) | 19-28, 235 yards, 3 sacks, 7.6 yds. per att. | 16-19, 201 yards, 1 sacks, 10.1 yds. per att. |
Passing (blitz) | 5-8, 19 yards, 0 sacks, 2.4 yds. per att. | 5-10, 63 yards, 3 sacks, 4.8 yds. per att. |
Reason for INC/INT | Utah | USC |
QB Fault | 3 | 5 |
Good Defense | 6 | 3 |
WR Fault | 2 | 0 |
Travis Wilson was really, really bad. He threw three key interceptions, but he also only averaged 3.54 air yards per attempt after you remove the Hail Mary. The longest pass attempt was 21 yards, and only four total passes traveled over 10 yards. Britain Covey is fun to watch (and I'm sure Utah fans already knew that). He was the only thing that really gave the Trojans problems with a great kick return, a punt return that set up a two-yard TD for Utah, and two big receiving TDs.
Cody Kessler was his good self in this game. He averaged a decent 6.29 yards per attempt, got away with one INT that a Utah defender dropped, and was aided yet again by Juju Smith-Schuster and his glorious stiff-arm. I'll still be critical of him until he shows he can come back from behind, but he's definitely good when he's ahead.
Rushing
Utah | USC | |||
Rush-Yds | YPC | Rush-Yds | YPC | |
To Edge | 6-38 | 6.3 | 9-48 | 5.3 |
Toward Tackle | 7-37 | 5.3 | 2-3 | 1.5 |
Up Middle | 6-15 | 2.5 | 5-28 | 5.6 |
The Trojans surprisingly (at least compared to my expectations) stopped Devontae Booker. Game flow also had some influence on this, as the interceptions effectively took him out of the game plan.
Ronald Jones' explosion was on display with four runs of 10+ yards. However, he also had five runs of 0 or negative yardage. He is definitely the most exciting running back USC has, even if he isn't yet consistent.
QB Activity
Utah | USC | |||||
QB Move | Rushes-Yds | Passes-Yds | Sacks-Yds | Rushes-Yds | Passes-Yds | Sacks-Yds |
Rollout | 1-(-4) | |||||
Option - triple option | 1-(-2) | |||||
Option - zone read | 6-42 | |||||
QB Draw | 1-(-5) | |||||
QB Sneak | 1-1 | |||||
Sack - in pocket | 1-(-7) | 2-(-13) | ||||
Sack - coverage sack | 1-(-7) | |||||
Sack - QB fault | 2-(-13) |
Although Utah mixed in a fair amount of read option, had the game been closer, I'm sure they would've used it even more.