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USC 42, Utah 24: The Cam Smith game

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Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team Win Probability Before Play

Home Team Win Probability Added

1

57

Utah

3

3

58

2

Travis Wilson Pass INTERCEPTED

0.308

0.219

2

91

Utah

4

2

45

2

Travis Wilson Pass INTERCEPTED

0.786

0.147

3

79

USC

2

18

18

2

Ronald Jones II Rush for 18, TOUCHDOWN

0.658

0.113

4

34

USC

3

7

88

1

Cody Kessler Rush for -9

0.489

-0.098

5

11

USC

3

4

82

1

Cody Kessler Pass to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 19

0.505

0.091

USC 42, Utah 24

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics USC Utah Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 74 64
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 75.4%
Avg Starting FP 32.9 29.7 29.6
Possessions 12 13
Scoring Opportunities*
7 4
Points Per Opportunity 5.00 6.00 4.76
Leverage Rate** 78.6% 75.0% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.561 0.513 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) USC Utah
Total 35.6 30.5
Rushing 13.3 9.3
Passing 22.3 21.2
Success Rate (what's this?) USC Utah Nat'l Avg
All (close) 44.6% 41.7% 41.6%
Rushing (close) 39.3% 45.5% 42.5%
Passing (close) 50.0% 38.5% 40.8%
Standard Downs 38.6% 47.2% 47.0%
Passing Downs 66.7% 25.0% 30.2%
IsoPPP (what's this?) USC Utah Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.02 0.90 1.26
Rushing (close) 0.81 0.75 1.08
Passing (close) 1.19 1.04 1.47
Standard Downs 0.87 0.90 1.11
Passing Downs 1.35 0.85 1.78
Line Stats USC Utah Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.01 3.12 2.85
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 5.0% 6.3% 4.9%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 25.0% 0.0% 7.4%
Turnovers USC Utah
Turnovers 0 4
Turnover Points (what's this?) 0.0 27.5
Turnover Margin USC +4
Exp. TO Margin USC +1.61
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) USC +2.39
TO Points Margin USC +27.5 points
Situational USC Utah
Q1 S&P 0.644 0.721
Q2 S&P 0.604 0.397
Q3 S&P 0.460 0.477
Q4 S&P 0.608 0.714
1st Down S&P 0.575 0.577
2nd Down S&P 0.466 0.663
3rd Down S&P 0.713 0.540
Projected Scoring Margin: USC by 32.6
Actual Scoring Margin: USC by 18

This shall forever be known as the Cam F*ing Smith Game: three INTs, one of them a pick six.

Utah made an effort to go over the middle, doing so with 41% of its passes. But USC's defense, Smith especially, responded to the challenge and made life difficult for Travis Wilson. A bonus of three key turnovers (the fourth was a garbage time INT on a hail mary) was the subsequent benefit on USC's average starting field position (32.9, their best since the Arkansas State game).

Formations/Basics

Utah USC
Backs-Wide % of Plays Yds/Play % of Plays Yds/Play
0 backs, 4 wide 1.4% 0.0
0 backs, 5 wide 3.1% 3.0 2.7% 7.0
1 back, 2 wide 1.6% 0.0 15.1% 8.4
1 back, 3 wide 14.1% 3.1 23.3% 2.8
1 back, 4 wide 48.4% 6.5 20.5% 6.1
2 backs, 2 wide 9.4% 10.5 20.5% 4.9
2 backs, 3 wide 23.4% 3.6 11.0% 7.0
3 backs, 1 wide 1.4% 0.0
3 backs, 2 wide 4.1% 2.3
No Huddle? % of Plays Yds/Play
Utah 100.0% 5.5
USC 98.6% 5.3
Utah USC
Hash % of Plays Yds/Play % of Plays Yds/Play
Left 45.3% 5.2 42.5% 4.5
Middle 14.1% 6.3 6.8% 3.6
Right 40.6% 5.6 50.7% 6.0

Passing

Utah USC
Passing Comp Rt Yds/Pass Passing Comp Rt Yds/Pass
Behind Line 9-10, 102 yards 90.0% 10.2 7-7, 51 yards 100.0% 7.3
0 to 4 5-8, 35 yards 62.5% 4.4 7-9, 76 yards 77.8% 8.4
5 to 9 6-12, 41 yards 50.0% 3.4 3-4, 35 yards 75.0% 8.8
10 to 19 3-3, 55 yards 100.0% 18.3 2-3, 48 yards 66.7% 16.0
20 to 29 1-2, 21 yards 50.0% 10.5 2-4, 54 yards 50.0% 13.5
30-plus 0-1, 0 yards 0.0% 0.0 0-2, 0 yards 0.0% 0.0
Utah USC
% Blitz: 20.5% 39.4%
Avg. Rushers 4.1 4.4
Passing (no blitz) 19-28, 235 yards, 3 sacks, 7.6 yds. per att. 16-19, 201 yards, 1 sacks, 10.1 yds. per att.
Passing (blitz) 5-8, 19 yards, 0 sacks, 2.4 yds. per att. 5-10, 63 yards, 3 sacks, 4.8 yds. per att.
Reason for INC/INT Utah USC
QB Fault 3 5
Good Defense 6 3
WR Fault 2 0

Travis Wilson was really, really bad. He threw three key interceptions, but he also only averaged 3.54 air yards per attempt after you remove the Hail Mary. The longest pass attempt was 21 yards, and only four total passes traveled over 10 yards. Britain Covey is fun to watch (and I'm sure Utah fans already knew that). He was the only thing that really gave the Trojans problems with a great kick return, a punt return that set up a two-yard TD for Utah, and two big receiving TDs.

Cody Kessler was his good self in this game. He averaged a decent 6.29 yards per attempt, got away with one INT that a Utah defender dropped, and was aided yet again by Juju Smith-Schuster and his glorious stiff-arm. I'll still be critical of him until he shows he can come back from behind, but he's definitely good when he's ahead.

Rushing

Utah USC
Rush-Yds YPC Rush-Yds YPC
To Edge 6-38 6.3 9-48 5.3
Toward Tackle 7-37 5.3 2-3 1.5
Up Middle 6-15 2.5 5-28 5.6

The Trojans surprisingly (at least compared to my expectations) stopped Devontae Booker. Game flow also had some influence on this, as the interceptions effectively took him out of the game plan.

Ronald Jones' explosion was on display with four runs of 10+ yards. However, he also had five runs of 0 or negative yardage. He is definitely the most exciting running back USC has, even if he isn't yet consistent.

QB Activity

Utah USC
QB Move Rushes-Yds Passes-Yds Sacks-Yds Rushes-Yds Passes-Yds Sacks-Yds
Rollout 1-(-4)
Option - triple option 1-(-2)
Option - zone read 6-42
QB Draw 1-(-5)
QB Sneak 1-1
Sack - in pocket 1-(-7) 2-(-13)
Sack - coverage sack 1-(-7)
Sack - QB fault 2-(-13)

Although Utah mixed in a fair amount of read option, had the game been closer, I'm sure they would've used it even more.