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Duke 45, Virginia Tech 43: Winning a coin flip game makes the Blue Devils Coastal favorites

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Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

VTDukewp

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team Win Probability Before Play

Home Team Win Probability Added

1

229

Duke

1

10

25

5

Thomas Sirk Pass to Erich Schneider for 25, TOUCHDOWN

0.594

-0.584

2

174

Virginia Tech

4

2

23

4

Michael Brewer Pass to Bucky Hodges for 23, TOUCHDOWN

0.182

0.387

3

205

Virginia Tech

3

6

11

5

Michael Brewer Pass to Bucky Hodges for 11, TOUCHDOWN

0.373

0.303

4

200

Virginia Tech

4

5

20

5

FIELD_GOAL

0.613

-0.214

5

215

Duke

4

3

3

5

FIELD_GOAL

0.620

0.180

Duke 45, Virginia Tech 43

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Duke Virginia Tech Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 72 100
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 30.6 21.7 29.6
Possessions 16 16
Scoring Opportunities*
10 8
Points Per Opportunity 4.50 5.38 4.76
Leverage Rate** 61.1% 70.0% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.623 0.542 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Duke Virginia Tech
Total 43.7 41.9
Rushing 17.4 20.0
Passing 26.3 21.9
Success Rate (what's this?) Duke Virginia Tech Nat'l Avg
All (close) 37.5% 44.0% 41.6%
Rushing (close) 37.5% 48.0% 42.5%
Passing (close) 37.5% 40.0% 40.8%
Standard Downs 38.6% 44.3% 47.0%
Passing Downs 35.7% 43.3% 30.2%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Duke Virginia Tech Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.62 0.95 1.26
Rushing (close) 1.45 0.83 1.08
Passing (close) 1.75 1.10 1.47
Standard Downs 1.52 0.85 1.11
Passing Downs 1.77 1.20 1.78
Line Stats Duke Virginia Tech Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.96 3.43 2.85
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 3.3% 4.9%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 10.0% 7.4%
Turnovers Duke Virginia Tech
Turnovers 0 0
Turnover Points (what's this?) 0.0 0.0
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin Duke +0.22
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Virginia Tech +0.22
TO Points Margin +0
Situational Duke Virginia Tech
Q1 S&P 0.651 0.704
Q2 S&P 0.474 0.316
Q3 S&P 0.912 0.614
Q4 S&P 0.592 0.570
1st Down S&P 0.655 0.527
2nd Down S&P 0.698 0.480
3rd Down S&P 0.574 0.551
Projected Scoring Margin: Duke by 1.8
Actual Scoring Margin: Duke by 2

Such an even game. Duke never trailed (until OTs 2 and 4, when VT got the ball first) but never led by more than 8 either. The Blue Devils were able to tilt the field in their favor and create more scoring opportunities, but Tech did a better job of milking points from opportunities and had the more efficient offense. And somehow, in 32 possessions, neither team had a turnover. Tough to pull that one off.

Since Duke was able to come out with a win, the Blue Devils are now very much the favorites to win the ACC Coastal. They remain a legitimate top-20 team, while UNC and Pitt are both barely staying in the top 50. Of course, Duke was a pretty big favorite at this point last year, too ... got to avoid that November collapse this time around.