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Top 5 Plays
|
|
Play Number |
Offense |
Down |
Distance |
Spot |
Quarter |
Play Description |
Home Team Win Probability Before Play |
Home Team Win Probability Added |
|
1 |
229 |
Duke |
1 |
10 |
25 |
5 |
Thomas Sirk Pass to Erich Schneider for 25, TOUCHDOWN |
0.594 |
-0.584 |
|
2 |
174 |
Virginia Tech |
4 |
2 |
23 |
4 |
Michael Brewer Pass to Bucky Hodges for 23, TOUCHDOWN |
0.182 |
0.387 |
|
3 |
205 |
Virginia Tech |
3 |
6 |
11 |
5 |
Michael Brewer Pass to Bucky Hodges for 11, TOUCHDOWN |
0.373 |
0.303 |
|
4 |
200 |
Virginia Tech |
4 |
5 |
20 |
5 |
FIELD_GOAL |
0.613 |
-0.214 |
|
5 |
215 |
Duke |
4 |
3 |
3 |
5 |
FIELD_GOAL |
0.620 |
0.180 |
Duke 45, Virginia Tech 43
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Duke | Virginia Tech | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 72 | 100 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 30.6 | 21.7 | 29.6 |
| Possessions | 16 | 16 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
10 | 8 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 4.50 | 5.38 | 4.76 |
| Leverage Rate** | 61.1% | 70.0% | 68.1% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.623 | 0.542 | 0.586 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
|||
| EqPts (what's this?) | Duke | Virginia Tech | |
| Total | 43.7 | 41.9 | |
| Rushing | 17.4 | 20.0 | |
| Passing | 26.3 | 21.9 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Duke | Virginia Tech | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 37.5% | 44.0% | 41.6% |
| Rushing (close) | 37.5% | 48.0% | 42.5% |
| Passing (close) | 37.5% | 40.0% | 40.8% |
| Standard Downs | 38.6% | 44.3% | 47.0% |
| Passing Downs | 35.7% | 43.3% | 30.2% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Duke | Virginia Tech | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.62 | 0.95 | 1.26 |
| Rushing (close) | 1.45 | 0.83 | 1.08 |
| Passing (close) | 1.75 | 1.10 | 1.47 |
| Standard Downs | 1.52 | 0.85 | 1.11 |
| Passing Downs | 1.77 | 1.20 | 1.78 |
| Line Stats | Duke | Virginia Tech | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 2.96 | 3.43 | 2.85 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 3.3% | 4.9% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 10.0% | 7.4% |
| Turnovers | Duke | Virginia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Turnover Margin | +0 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Duke +0.22 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Virginia Tech +0.22 | |
| TO Points Margin | +0 | |
| Situational | Duke | Virginia Tech |
| Q1 S&P | 0.651 | 0.704 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.474 | 0.316 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.912 | 0.614 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.592 | 0.570 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.655 | 0.527 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.698 | 0.480 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.574 | 0.551 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Duke by 1.8 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Duke by 2 | ||
Such an even game. Duke never trailed (until OTs 2 and 4, when VT got the ball first) but never led by more than 8 either. The Blue Devils were able to tilt the field in their favor and create more scoring opportunities, but Tech did a better job of milking points from opportunities and had the more efficient offense. And somehow, in 32 possessions, neither team had a turnover. Tough to pull that one off.
Since Duke was able to come out with a win, the Blue Devils are now very much the favorites to win the ACC Coastal. They remain a legitimate top-20 team, while UNC and Pitt are both barely staying in the top 50. Of course, Duke was a pretty big favorite at this point last year, too ... got to avoid that November collapse this time around.
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