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Top 5 Plays
|
|
Play Number |
Offense |
Down |
Distance |
Spot |
Quarter |
Play Description |
Home Team Win Probability Before Play |
Home Team Win Probability Added |
|
1 |
209 |
Arkansas |
5 |
0 |
3 |
5 |
ATTEMPT |
-0.077 |
0.476 |
|
2 |
182 |
Arkansas |
4 |
3 |
6 |
5 |
Brandon Allen Pass to Drew Morgan for 6, TOUCHDOWN |
0.138 |
0.295 |
|
3 |
210 |
Arkansas |
1 |
10 |
25 |
5 |
Brandon Allen Pass to Drew Morgan for 25, TOUCHDOWN |
0.399 |
0.277 |
|
4 |
211 |
Arkansas |
5 |
0 |
3 |
5 |
ATTEMPT |
0.676 |
0.256 |
|
5 |
202 |
Auburn |
5 |
0 |
3 |
5 |
ATTEMPT |
0.247 |
-0.256 |
(Obviously the win probability gets a little haphazard when you get deep into OT...)
Arkansas 54, Auburn 46
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Arkansas | Auburn | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 81 | 86 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 30.6 | 21.2 | 29.6 |
| Possessions | 14 | 14 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
9 | 8 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 6.00 | 5.75 | 4.76 |
| Leverage Rate** | 79.0% | 68.6% | 68.1% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.625 | 0.559 | 0.586 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
|||
| EqPts (what's this?) | Arkansas | Auburn | |
| Total | 45.2 | 39.7 | |
| Rushing | 21.4 | 17.4 | |
| Passing | 23.7 | 22.3 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Arkansas | Auburn | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 50.6% | 43.0% | 41.6% |
| Rushing (close) | 52.1% | 43.1% | 42.5% |
| Passing (close) | 48.5% | 42.9% | 40.8% |
| Standard Downs | 54.7% | 37.3% | 47.0% |
| Passing Downs | 35.3% | 55.6% | 30.2% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Arkansas | Auburn | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.10 | 1.07 | 1.26 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.86 | 0.79 | 1.08 |
| Passing (close) | 1.48 | 1.49 | 1.47 |
| Standard Downs | 1.05 | 0.79 | 1.11 |
| Passing Downs | 1.42 | 1.49 | 1.78 |
| Line Stats | Arkansas | Auburn | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.72 | 2.46 | 2.85 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.9% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 9.1% | 4.2% | 7.4% |
| Turnovers | Arkansas | Auburn |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 3.0 | 0.0 |
| Turnover Margin | Auburn +1 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Auburn +0.73 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Auburn +0.27 | |
| TO Points Margin | Auburn +3.0 points | |
| Situational | Arkansas | Auburn |
| Q1 S&P | 0.699 | 0.308 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.616 | 0.521 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.553 | 0.504 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.575 | 0.678 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.577 | 0.523 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.672 | 0.453 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.563 | 0.610 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Arkansas by 2.5 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Arkansas by 8 | ||
Man oh man, Auburn couldn't have started this game much worse. Arkansas scored on two of its first three drives, and the Tigers punted four times in a row, three times going three-and-out. This resulted in a lot of the efficiency and field position differences we see above. But Auburn scored on four of its final six possessions (this game had a far-less-than-rapid pace), and Arkansas only did so in two of their last six. And then overtime was just a shootout.
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