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Arkansas 54, Auburn 46: A fast start gave the Hogs just enough to last through a wild finish

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Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

arkaubwp

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team Win Probability Before Play

Home Team Win Probability Added

1

209

Arkansas

5

0

3

5

ATTEMPT

-0.077

0.476

2

182

Arkansas

4

3

6

5

Brandon Allen Pass to Drew Morgan for 6, TOUCHDOWN

0.138

0.295

3

210

Arkansas

1

10

25

5

Brandon Allen Pass to Drew Morgan for 25, TOUCHDOWN

0.399

0.277

4

211

Arkansas

5

0

3

5

ATTEMPT

0.676

0.256

5

202

Auburn

5

0

3

5

ATTEMPT

0.247

-0.256

(Obviously the win probability gets a little haphazard when you get deep into OT...)

Arkansas 54, Auburn 46

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Arkansas Auburn Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 81 86
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 30.6 21.2 29.6
Possessions 14 14
Scoring Opportunities*
9 8
Points Per Opportunity 6.00 5.75 4.76
Leverage Rate** 79.0% 68.6% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.625 0.559 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Arkansas Auburn
Total 45.2 39.7
Rushing 21.4 17.4
Passing 23.7 22.3
Success Rate (what's this?) Arkansas Auburn Nat'l Avg
All (close) 50.6% 43.0% 41.6%
Rushing (close) 52.1% 43.1% 42.5%
Passing (close) 48.5% 42.9% 40.8%
Standard Downs 54.7% 37.3% 47.0%
Passing Downs 35.3% 55.6% 30.2%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Arkansas Auburn Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.10 1.07 1.26
Rushing (close) 0.86 0.79 1.08
Passing (close) 1.48 1.49 1.47
Standard Downs 1.05 0.79 1.11
Passing Downs 1.42 1.49 1.78
Line Stats Arkansas Auburn Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.72 2.46 2.85
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 4.9%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 9.1% 4.2% 7.4%
Turnovers Arkansas Auburn
Turnovers 1 0
Turnover Points (what's this?) 3.0 0.0
Turnover Margin Auburn +1
Exp. TO Margin Auburn +0.73
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Auburn +0.27
TO Points Margin Auburn +3.0 points
Situational Arkansas Auburn
Q1 S&P 0.699 0.308
Q2 S&P 0.616 0.521
Q3 S&P 0.553 0.504
Q4 S&P 0.575 0.678
1st Down S&P 0.577 0.523
2nd Down S&P 0.672 0.453
3rd Down S&P 0.563 0.610
Projected Scoring Margin: Arkansas by 2.5
Actual Scoring Margin: Arkansas by 8

Man oh man, Auburn couldn't have started this game much worse. Arkansas scored on two of its first three drives, and the Tigers punted four times in a row, three times going three-and-out. This resulted in a lot of the efficiency and field position differences we see above. But Auburn scored on four of its final six possessions (this game had a far-less-than-rapid pace), and Arkansas only did so in two of their last six. And then overtime was just a shootout.