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Temple 24, East Carolina 14: The win that secured a GameDay visit

James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports

tempecuwp

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team Win Probability Before Play

Home Team Win Probability Added

1

174

Temple

2

13

23

4

P.J. Walker Pass to Robby Anderson for 23, TOUCHDOWN

0.659

-0.310

2

154

East Carolina

1

10

45

4

Anthony Scott Rush for 0, FUMBLE

0.850

-0.163

3

122

East Carolina

2

10

59

3

Blake Kemp Pass INTERCEPTED

0.745

-0.163

4

90

East Carolina

4

10

37

2

Blake Kemp Pass to Bryce Williams for 21, FIRST DOWN

0.443

0.160

5

169

Temple

2

24

85

4

P.J. Walker Pass to Robby Anderson for 51, FIRST DOWN

0.804

-0.156

Temple 24, East Carolina 14

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics East Carolina Temple Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 88 61
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 25.5 33.6 29.6
Possessions 12 12
Scoring Opportunities*
5 6
Points Per Opportunity 2.80 4.00 4.76
Leverage Rate** 59.1% 60.7% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.502 0.553 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) East Carolina Temple
Total 33.3 29.1
Rushing 12.0 6.6
Passing 21.3 22.5
Success Rate (what's this?) East Carolina Temple Nat'l Avg
All (close) 37.5% 36.1% 41.6%
Rushing (close) 37.9% 36.0% 42.5%
Passing (close) 37.3% 36.1% 40.8%
Standard Downs 40.4% 32.4% 47.0%
Passing Downs 33.3% 41.7% 30.2%
IsoPPP (what's this?) East Carolina Temple Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.01 1.32 1.26
Rushing (close) 1.09 0.73 1.08
Passing (close) 0.97 1.73 1.47
Standard Downs 0.83 0.72 1.11
Passing Downs 1.33 2.05 1.78
Line Stats East Carolina Temple Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.04 1.61 2.85
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 10.3% 0.0% 4.9%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 10.0% 0.0% 7.4%
Turnovers East Carolina Temple
Turnovers 2 0
Turnover Points (what's this?) 9.3 0.0
Turnover Margin Temple +2
Exp. TO Margin Temple +1.1
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Temple +0.9
TO Points Margin Temple +9.3 points
Situational East Carolina Temple
Q1 S&P 0.547 0.438
Q2 S&P 0.595 0.548
Q3 S&P 0.485 0.328
Q4 S&P 0.372 0.723
1st Down S&P 0.504 0.572
2nd Down S&P 0.419 0.432
3rd Down S&P 0.477 0.730
Projected Scoring Margin: Temple by 5.1
Actual Scoring Margin: Temple by 10

Little bit of a magic act by Temple here, relying on turnovers and special teams to escape a potential trap game. The Owls clamped down in the second half and eventually generated just enough big plays to get the job done, but yikes.

I'm glad the Owls won, though. The AAC is fun as hell this year, and I'm really hoping for an AAC title game of undefeated Memphis/Houston vs. 12-0 or 11-1 Temple. It deserves it for being so entertaining. And having GameDay in Philly is pretty fantastic, too.