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Sometimes college football beats you. Sometimes you beat college football.
- Week 1: 20-17 (54%)
- Week 2: 25-26 (49%)
- Week 3: 28-23-1 (55%)
- Week 4: 29-21-2 (57%)
- Week 5: 27-28 (49%)
- Week 6: 27-28 (49%)
- Week 7: 20-36 (36%)
- Week 8: 33-21-1 (61%)
- OVERALL: 209-200-4 (51%)
My deep knowledge of the laws of mathematics (*cough*) tells me that there are only two possible outcomes for this week's picks: falling back down to 36% or rising even further to 86%. No in-between.
Win probabilities
| Win Prob. Range | Last Week | Overall | Win% |
| 50-59% | 5-6 | 39-43 | 47.6% |
| 60-69% | 12-1 | 78-26 | 75.0% |
| 70-79% | 8-2 | 86-16 | 84.3% |
| 80-89% | 11-1 | 88-18 | 83.0% |
| 90-99% | 9-0 | 120-3 | 97.6% |
While S&P+ and Vegas continue to trade haymakers, the win probabilities continue to cruise along at a pretty lovely clip. Again, it's almost too lovely -- games in the 60-79% range should be averaging out around 70%, not 80% -- but I'm not going to complain about that. S&P+ seems to have the "who's better than whom?" thing down pretty well this year, even if the "...and by how much?" follow-up gets a little bit blurry.
Thursday
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 7:00 PM | ESPN | North Carolina at Pittsburgh | +3 | Pittsburgh (30.8-28.8) | 2.0 | 54.6% | Pittsburgh |
| 7:30 PM | ESPN3 | Buffalo at Miami-OH | +7.5 | Buffalo (32.7-21.9) | 10.7 | 73.3% | Buffalo |
| 7:30 PM | ESPNU | Texas State at Georgia Southern | -20.5 | Georgia Southern (44.8-23.6) | 21.2 | 89.0% | Georgia Southern |
| 7:30 PM | FS1 | West Virginia at TCU | -14 | TCU (34.6-30.8) | 3.8 | 58.8% | West Virginia |
| 7:30 PM | CBSSN | Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan | +20 | Western Michigan (37.5-31.2) | 6.3 | 64.2% | Eastern Michigan |
| 10:30 PM | ESPN | Oregon at Arizona State | -2.5 | Arizona State (31.4-30.7) | 0.7 | 51.6% | Oregon |
Friday
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 7:00 PM | ESPNU | East Carolina at Connecticut | +7.5 | East Carolina (30.4-24.8) | 5.6 | 62.8% | Connecticut |
| 7:00 PM | ESPN2 | Louisville at Wake Forest | +11.5 | Louisville (32.4-18.0) | 14.5 | 79.8% | Louisville |
| 8:00 PM | FS1 | Louisiana Tech at Rice | +13 | Louisiana Tech (43.5-23.4) | 20.1 | 87.8% | Louisiana Tech |
| 10:15 PM | ESPN2 | Wyoming at Utah State | -28 | Utah State (37.8-16.4) | 21.3 | 89.1% | Wyoming |
Saturday
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 12:00 PM | ESPNN | Central Florida at Cincinnati | -27.5 | Cincinnati (38.5-16.8) | 21.7 | 89.5% | Central Florida |
| 12:00 PM | ESPN2 | Illinois at Penn State | -5.5 | Penn State (24.2-23.2) | 1.1 | 52.5% | Illinois |
| 12:00 PM | ESPNU | Nebraska at Purdue | +10.5 | Nebraska (33.5-23.3) | 10.2 | 72.2% | Purdue |
| 12:00 PM | ESPN | Ole Miss at Auburn | +7.5 | Ole Miss (36.0-20.9) | 15.1 | 80.8% | Ole Miss |
| 12:00 PM | BTN | Rutgers at Wisconsin | -20.5 | Wisconsin (41.7-15.4) | 26.4 | 93.6% | Wisconsin |
| 12:00 PM | SECN | South Carolina at Texas A&M | -16.5 | Texas A&M (35.4-23.0) | 12.4 | 76.4% | South Carolina |
| 12:00 PM | CBSSN | South Florida at Navy | -7.5 | Navy (34.3-22.2) | 12.0 | 75.7% | Navy |
| 12:00 PM | ABC | Syracuse at Florida State | -20.5 | Florida State (38.1-18.3) | 19.8 | 87.4% | Syracuse |
| 12:00 PM | FSN affiliates | Western Kentucky at Old Dominion | +24 | Western Kentucky (41.6-20.5) | 21.1 | 88.9% | Old Dominion |
| 12:30 PM | ESPN3 | Virginia Tech at Boston College | +2.5 | Boston College (23.2-16.0) | 7.2 | 66.1% | Boston College |
| 1:00 PM | ESPN3 | Massachusetts at Ball State | -2.5 | Massachusetts (31.9-31.2) | 0.6 | 51.4% | Massachusetts |
| 2:00 PM | ESPN3 | Central Michigan at Akron | +3 | Central Michigan (26.6-25.6) | 0.9 | 52.1% | Akron |
| 2:30 PM | FCS | UTEP at Southern Miss | -24.5 | Southern Miss (46.1-15.7) | 30.4 | 96.0% | Southern Miss |
| 3:00 PM | Pac-12 | Colorado at UCLA | -21 | UCLA (43.6-17.7) | 25.9 | 93.2% | UCLA |
| 3:00 PM | ESPN3 | Georgia Tech at Virginia | +6 | Georgia Tech (34.5-25.9) | 8.5 | 68.9% | Georgia Tech |
| 3:00 PM | Fox | USC at California | +6 | USC (35.3-29.8) | 5.5 | 62.5% | California |
| 3:30 PM | ESPNU | Boise State at UNLV | +20 | Boise State (33.0-16.8) | 16.2 | 82.5% | UNLV |
| 3:30 PM | ABC/ESPN2 | Clemson at NC State | +10.5 | Clemson (33.2-20.2) | 13.0 | 77.3% | Clemson |
| 3:30 PM | CBS | Florida vs. Georgia | +3 | Florida (28.4-24.9) | 3.6 | 58.2% | Florida |
| 3:30 PM | ASN | Florida International at Florida Atlantic | +2.5 | Florida Atlantic (28.1-25.9) | 2.2 | 55.2% | Florida Atlantic |
| 3:30 PM | FSN affiliates | Marshall at Charlotte | +18.5 | Marshall (31.4-12.1) | 19.3 | 86.8% | Marshall |
| 3:30 PM | ABC/ESPN2 | Maryland at Iowa | -17 | Iowa (36.6-15.1) | 21.6 | 89.4% | Iowa |
| 3:30 PM | FS1 | Oklahoma at Kansas | +40 | Oklahoma (49.0-11.3) | 37.8 | 98.5% | Kansas |
| 3:30 PM | ESPN | Oklahoma State at Texas Tech | +3 | Oklahoma State (38.2-33.0) | 5.1 | 61.7% | Oklahoma State |
| 3:30 PM | CBSSN | San Diego State at Colorado State | +3.5 | San Diego State (27.0-23.7) | 3.3 | 57.5% | Colorado State |
| 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Troy at Appalachian State | -24 | Appalachian State (40.4-13.9) | 26.5 | 93.7% | Appalachian State |
| 4:00 PM | ESPN News | Tulsa at SMU | +3.5 | Tulsa (38.5-31.0) | 7.4 | 66.6% | Tulsa |
| 4:00 PM | SECN | UT Martin at Arkansas | Arkansas (50.5-11.5) | 39.1 | 98.8% | ||
| 5:00 PM | ESPN3 | UL-Monroe at UL-Lafayette | -11.5 | UL-Lafayette (36.4-22.1) | 14.3 | 79.6% | UL-Lafayette |
| 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Georgia State at Arkansas State | -18.5 | Arkansas State (35.4-21.9) | 13.5 | 78.2% | Georgia State |
| 7:00 PM | ESPNU | Miami-FL at Duke | Duke (32.8-15.9) | 16.9 | 83.6% | ? | |
| 7:00 PM | ESPN | Michigan at Minnesota | +14 | Michigan (31.4-10.1) | 21.3 | 89.0% | Michigan |
| 7:00 PM | Pac-12 | Oregon State at Utah | -24 | Utah (40.5-13.2) | 27.3 | 94.3% | Utah |
| 7:00 PM | FS1 | Texas at Iowa State | +6.5 | Iowa State (31.2-26.8) | 4.3 | 59.9% | Iowa State |
| 7:00 PM | CBSSN | Tulane at Memphis | -32 | Memphis (44.0-17.2) | 26.8 | 93.9% | Tulane |
| 7:00 PM | ASN | UTSA at North Texas | +9.5 | UTSA (35.7-21.2) | 14.4 | 79.8% | UTSA |
| 7:00 PM | ESPN2 | Vanderbilt at Houston | -11.5 | Houston (33.4-20.4) | 13.0 | 77.4% | Houston |
| 7:30 PM | SECN | Tennessee at Kentucky | +9 | Tennessee (34.8-23.9) | 10.8 | 73.4% | Tennessee |
| 8:00 PM | ESPN3 | Idaho at New Mexico State | +5.5 | Idaho (35.8-32.6) | 3.2 | 57.3% | New Mexico State |
| 8:00 PM | ABC | Notre Dame at Temple | +10.5 | Notre Dame (28.5-25.1) | 3.4 | 57.9% | Temple |
| 10:30 PM | CBSSN | Air Force at Hawaii | +7 | Air Force (31.8-22.8) | 9.0 | 69.9% | Air Force |
| 10:30 PM | ESPN | Stanford at Washington State | +12 | Stanford (38.2-27.9) | 10.4 | 72.6% | Washington State |
| 11:00 PM | FS1 | Arizona at Washington | -4.5 | Washington (35.3-26.3) | 9.0 | 69.8% | Washington |
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