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Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Sometimes college football beats you. Sometimes you beat college football.

  • Week 1: 20-17 (54%)
  • Week 2: 25-26 (49%)
  • Week 3: 28-23-1 (55%)
  • Week 4: 29-21-2 (57%)
  • Week 5: 27-28 (49%)
  • Week 6: 27-28 (49%)
  • Week 7: 20-36 (36%)
  • Week 8: 33-21-1 (61%)
  • OVERALL: 209-200-4 (51%)

My deep knowledge of the laws of mathematics (*cough*) tells me that there are only two possible outcomes for this week's picks: falling back down to 36% or rising even further to 86%. No in-between.

Win probabilities

Win Prob. Range Last Week Overall Win%
50-59% 5-6 39-43 47.6%
60-69% 12-1 78-26 75.0%
70-79% 8-2 86-16 84.3%
80-89% 11-1 88-18 83.0%
90-99% 9-0 120-3 97.6%

While S&P+ and Vegas continue to trade haymakers, the win probabilities continue to cruise along at a pretty lovely clip. Again, it's almost too lovely -- games in the 60-79% range should be averaging out around 70%, not 80% -- but I'm not going to complain about that. S&P+ seems to have the "who's better than whom?" thing down pretty well this year, even if the "...and by how much?" follow-up gets a little bit blurry.

Thursday

Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
7:00 PM ESPN North Carolina at Pittsburgh +3 Pittsburgh (30.8-28.8) 2.0 54.6% Pittsburgh
7:30 PM ESPN3 Buffalo at Miami-OH +7.5 Buffalo (32.7-21.9) 10.7 73.3% Buffalo
7:30 PM ESPNU Texas State at Georgia Southern -20.5 Georgia Southern (44.8-23.6) 21.2 89.0% Georgia Southern
7:30 PM FS1 West Virginia at TCU -14 TCU (34.6-30.8) 3.8 58.8% West Virginia
7:30 PM CBSSN Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan +20 Western Michigan (37.5-31.2) 6.3 64.2% Eastern Michigan
10:30 PM ESPN Oregon at Arizona State -2.5 Arizona State (31.4-30.7) 0.7 51.6% Oregon

Friday

Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
7:00 PM ESPNU East Carolina at Connecticut +7.5 East Carolina (30.4-24.8) 5.6 62.8% Connecticut
7:00 PM ESPN2 Louisville at Wake Forest +11.5 Louisville (32.4-18.0) 14.5 79.8% Louisville
8:00 PM FS1 Louisiana Tech at Rice +13 Louisiana Tech (43.5-23.4) 20.1 87.8% Louisiana Tech
10:15 PM ESPN2 Wyoming at Utah State -28 Utah State (37.8-16.4) 21.3 89.1% Wyoming

Saturday

Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
12:00 PM ESPNN Central Florida at Cincinnati -27.5 Cincinnati (38.5-16.8) 21.7 89.5% Central Florida
12:00 PM ESPN2 Illinois at Penn State -5.5 Penn State (24.2-23.2) 1.1 52.5% Illinois
12:00 PM ESPNU Nebraska at Purdue +10.5 Nebraska (33.5-23.3) 10.2 72.2% Purdue
12:00 PM ESPN Ole Miss at Auburn +7.5 Ole Miss (36.0-20.9) 15.1 80.8% Ole Miss
12:00 PM BTN Rutgers at Wisconsin -20.5 Wisconsin (41.7-15.4) 26.4 93.6% Wisconsin
12:00 PM SECN South Carolina at Texas A&M -16.5 Texas A&M (35.4-23.0) 12.4 76.4% South Carolina
12:00 PM CBSSN South Florida at Navy -7.5 Navy (34.3-22.2) 12.0 75.7% Navy
12:00 PM ABC Syracuse at Florida State -20.5 Florida State (38.1-18.3) 19.8 87.4% Syracuse
12:00 PM FSN affiliates Western Kentucky at Old Dominion +24 Western Kentucky (41.6-20.5) 21.1 88.9% Old Dominion
12:30 PM ESPN3 Virginia Tech at Boston College +2.5 Boston College (23.2-16.0) 7.2 66.1% Boston College
1:00 PM ESPN3 Massachusetts at Ball State -2.5 Massachusetts (31.9-31.2) 0.6 51.4% Massachusetts
2:00 PM ESPN3 Central Michigan at Akron +3 Central Michigan (26.6-25.6) 0.9 52.1% Akron
2:30 PM FCS UTEP at Southern Miss -24.5 Southern Miss (46.1-15.7) 30.4 96.0% Southern Miss
3:00 PM Pac-12 Colorado at UCLA -21 UCLA (43.6-17.7) 25.9 93.2% UCLA
3:00 PM ESPN3 Georgia Tech at Virginia +6 Georgia Tech (34.5-25.9) 8.5 68.9% Georgia Tech
3:00 PM Fox USC at California +6 USC (35.3-29.8) 5.5 62.5% California
3:30 PM ESPNU Boise State at UNLV +20 Boise State (33.0-16.8) 16.2 82.5% UNLV
3:30 PM ABC/ESPN2 Clemson at NC State +10.5 Clemson (33.2-20.2) 13.0 77.3% Clemson
3:30 PM CBS Florida vs. Georgia +3 Florida (28.4-24.9) 3.6 58.2% Florida
3:30 PM ASN Florida International at Florida Atlantic +2.5 Florida Atlantic (28.1-25.9) 2.2 55.2% Florida Atlantic
3:30 PM FSN affiliates Marshall at Charlotte +18.5 Marshall (31.4-12.1) 19.3 86.8% Marshall
3:30 PM ABC/ESPN2 Maryland at Iowa -17 Iowa (36.6-15.1) 21.6 89.4% Iowa
3:30 PM FS1 Oklahoma at Kansas +40 Oklahoma (49.0-11.3) 37.8 98.5% Kansas
3:30 PM ESPN Oklahoma State at Texas Tech +3 Oklahoma State (38.2-33.0) 5.1 61.7% Oklahoma State
3:30 PM CBSSN San Diego State at Colorado State +3.5 San Diego State (27.0-23.7) 3.3 57.5% Colorado State
3:30 PM ESPN3 Troy at Appalachian State -24 Appalachian State (40.4-13.9) 26.5 93.7% Appalachian State
4:00 PM ESPN News Tulsa at SMU +3.5 Tulsa (38.5-31.0) 7.4 66.6% Tulsa
4:00 PM SECN UT Martin at Arkansas Arkansas (50.5-11.5) 39.1 98.8%
5:00 PM ESPN3 UL-Monroe at UL-Lafayette -11.5 UL-Lafayette (36.4-22.1) 14.3 79.6% UL-Lafayette
7:00 PM ESPN3 Georgia State at Arkansas State -18.5 Arkansas State (35.4-21.9) 13.5 78.2% Georgia State
7:00 PM ESPNU Miami-FL at Duke Duke (32.8-15.9) 16.9 83.6% ?
7:00 PM ESPN Michigan at Minnesota +14 Michigan (31.4-10.1) 21.3 89.0% Michigan
7:00 PM Pac-12 Oregon State at Utah -24 Utah (40.5-13.2) 27.3 94.3% Utah
7:00 PM FS1 Texas at Iowa State +6.5 Iowa State (31.2-26.8) 4.3 59.9% Iowa State
7:00 PM CBSSN Tulane at Memphis -32 Memphis (44.0-17.2) 26.8 93.9% Tulane
7:00 PM ASN UTSA at North Texas +9.5 UTSA (35.7-21.2) 14.4 79.8% UTSA
7:00 PM ESPN2 Vanderbilt at Houston -11.5 Houston (33.4-20.4) 13.0 77.4% Houston
7:30 PM SECN Tennessee at Kentucky +9 Tennessee (34.8-23.9) 10.8 73.4% Tennessee
8:00 PM ESPN3 Idaho at New Mexico State +5.5 Idaho (35.8-32.6) 3.2 57.3% New Mexico State
8:00 PM ABC Notre Dame at Temple +10.5 Notre Dame (28.5-25.1) 3.4 57.9% Temple
10:30 PM CBSSN Air Force at Hawaii +7 Air Force (31.8-22.8) 9.0 69.9% Air Force
10:30 PM ESPN Stanford at Washington State +12 Stanford (38.2-27.9) 10.4 72.6% Washington State
11:00 PM FS1 Arizona at Washington -4.5 Washington (35.3-26.3) 9.0 69.8% Washington