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Alabama 19, Tennessee 14: Tide win with big pass rush and big passes? Odd.

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John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

tennaubwp

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team Win Probability Before Play

Home Team Win Probability Added

1

151

Tennessee

1

10

12

4

Jalen Hurd Rush for 12, TOUCHDOWN

0.712

-0.230

2

93

Tennessee

1

10

33

2

FIELD_GOAL

0.428

0.162

3

86

Tennessee

3

16

75

2

Jalen Hurd Rush for 29, FIRST DOWN

0.612

-0.152

4

162

Alabama

1

10

14

4

Derrick Henry Rush for 14, TOUCHDOWN

0.693

0.143

5

82

Alabama

4

21

87

2

PUNT

0.402

0.118

Alabama 19, Tennessee 14

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Alabama Tennessee Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 69 61
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 36.6 23.1 29.6
Possessions 10 10
Scoring Opportunities*
7 4
Points Per Opportunity 2.86 3.50 4.76
Leverage Rate** 66.7% 55.7% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.577 0.553 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Alabama Tennessee
Total 34.3 27.5
Rushing 13.4 13.9
Passing 21.0 13.7
Success Rate (what's this?) Alabama Tennessee Nat'l Avg
All (close) 43.5% 42.6% 41.6%
Rushing (close) 37.8% 41.2% 42.5%
Passing (close) 50.0% 44.4% 40.8%
Standard Downs 47.8% 44.1% 47.0%
Passing Downs 34.8% 40.7% 30.2%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Alabama Tennessee Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.15 1.06 1.26
Rushing (close) 0.96 0.99 1.08
Passing (close) 1.31 1.14 1.47
Standard Downs 0.95 0.89 1.11
Passing Downs 1.68 1.28 1.78
Line Stats Alabama Tennessee Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.63 3.18 2.85
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 18.8% 22.2% 4.9%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 12.5% 16.7% 7.4%
Turnovers Alabama Tennessee
Turnovers 1 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 2.9 6.1
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin Alabama +0.51
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Tennessee +0.51
TO Points Margin Alabama +3.2 points
Situational Alabama Tennessee
Q1 S&P 0.635 0.595
Q2 S&P 0.427 0.442
Q3 S&P 0.574 0.528
Q4 S&P 0.643 0.683
1st Down S&P 0.607 0.578
2nd Down S&P 0.567 0.514
3rd Down S&P 0.617 0.579
Projected Scoring Margin: Alabama by 10.0
Actual Scoring Margin: Alabama by 5

Alabama relying on big passes and a huge pass rush to win tight games while getting outrushed (from an efficiency standpoint). I don't know what to believe anymore.

(Meanwhile, kudos, Vols. Yet another close loss, yes, but it was close enough to be a close loss, and you rendered Bama's run game relatively inefficient. Hard to do.)