Top 5 Plays
|
|
Play Number |
Offense |
Down |
Distance |
Spot |
Quarter |
Play Description |
Home Team Win Probability Before Play |
Home Team Win Probability Added |
|
1 |
151 |
Tennessee |
1 |
10 |
12 |
4 |
Jalen Hurd Rush for 12, TOUCHDOWN |
0.712 |
-0.230 |
|
2 |
93 |
Tennessee |
1 |
10 |
33 |
2 |
FIELD_GOAL |
0.428 |
0.162 |
|
3 |
86 |
Tennessee |
3 |
16 |
75 |
2 |
Jalen Hurd Rush for 29, FIRST DOWN |
0.612 |
-0.152 |
|
4 |
162 |
Alabama |
1 |
10 |
14 |
4 |
Derrick Henry Rush for 14, TOUCHDOWN |
0.693 |
0.143 |
|
5 |
82 |
Alabama |
4 |
21 |
87 |
2 |
PUNT |
0.402 |
0.118 |
Alabama 19, Tennessee 14
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Alabama | Tennessee | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 69 | 61 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 36.6 | 23.1 | 29.6 |
| Possessions | 10 | 10 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
7 | 4 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 2.86 | 3.50 | 4.76 |
| Leverage Rate** | 66.7% | 55.7% | 68.1% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.577 | 0.553 | 0.586 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
|||
| EqPts (what's this?) | Alabama | Tennessee | |
| Total | 34.3 | 27.5 | |
| Rushing | 13.4 | 13.9 | |
| Passing | 21.0 | 13.7 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Alabama | Tennessee | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 43.5% | 42.6% | 41.6% |
| Rushing (close) | 37.8% | 41.2% | 42.5% |
| Passing (close) | 50.0% | 44.4% | 40.8% |
| Standard Downs | 47.8% | 44.1% | 47.0% |
| Passing Downs | 34.8% | 40.7% | 30.2% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Alabama | Tennessee | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.15 | 1.06 | 1.26 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.96 | 0.99 | 1.08 |
| Passing (close) | 1.31 | 1.14 | 1.47 |
| Standard Downs | 0.95 | 0.89 | 1.11 |
| Passing Downs | 1.68 | 1.28 | 1.78 |
| Line Stats | Alabama | Tennessee | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 2.63 | 3.18 | 2.85 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 18.8% | 22.2% | 4.9% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 12.5% | 16.7% | 7.4% |
| Turnovers | Alabama | Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 2.9 | 6.1 |
| Turnover Margin | +0 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Alabama +0.51 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Tennessee +0.51 | |
| TO Points Margin | Alabama +3.2 points | |
| Situational | Alabama | Tennessee |
| Q1 S&P | 0.635 | 0.595 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.427 | 0.442 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.574 | 0.528 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.643 | 0.683 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.607 | 0.578 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.567 | 0.514 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.617 | 0.579 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Alabama by 10.0 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Alabama by 5 | ||
Alabama relying on big passes and a huge pass rush to win tight games while getting outrushed (from an efficiency standpoint). I don't know what to believe anymore.
(Meanwhile, kudos, Vols. Yet another close loss, yes, but it was close enough to be a close loss, and you rendered Bama's run game relatively inefficient. Hard to do.)
