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Study Hall: Ole Miss 23, Alabama 17

Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

Ole Miss 23, Alabama 17

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Alabama Ole Miss Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 75 63
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 20.6 31.1 29.7
Possessions 11 14
Scoring Opportunities*
5 5
Points Per Opportunity 2.00 4.80 4.69
Leverage Rate** 74.7% 58.7% 68.4%
Close S&P*** 0.473 0.473 0.508
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Alabama Ole Miss
Total 18.8 21.3
Rushing 9.3 3.9
Passing 9.5 17.4
Success Rate (what's this?) Alabama Ole Miss Nat'l Avg
All (close) 45.3% 34.9% 42.2%
Rushing (close) 44.2% 23.3% 43.6%
Passing (close) 46.9% 45.5% 40.7%
Standard Downs 53.6% 43.2% 47.5%
Passing Downs 21.1% 23.1% 30.7%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Alabama Ole Miss Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.55 0.97 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.49 0.55 0.73
Passing (close) 0.63 1.16 0.99
Standard Downs 0.53 0.86 0.77
Passing Downs 0.72 1.25 1.14
Line Stats Alabama Ole Miss Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.90 1.76 2.93
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 6.7% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 10.0% 5.6% 7.3%
Turnovers Alabama Ole Miss
Turnovers 2 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 7.6 6.6
Turnover Margin Ole Miss +1
Exp. TO Margin Alabama +0.44
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Ole Miss +1.44
TO Points Margin Ole Miss +0.9 points
Situational Alabama Ole Miss
Q1 S&P 0.402 0.434
Q2 S&P 0.469 0.240
Q3 S&P 0.551 0.565
Q4 S&P 0.455 0.585
1st Down S&P 0.518 0.435
2nd Down S&P 0.441 0.532
3rd Down S&P 0.380 0.475
Projected Scoring Margin: Ole Miss by 3.4
Actual Scoring Margin: Ole Miss by 6

By my count, Alabama had won 30 straight games and 42 of 43 when allowing fewer than 24 points. Well, now it's 42 of 44, I guess. Ole Miss ran the ball about as poorly as I assumed, but Bo Wallace not only avoided disaster but made some plays -- 58 percent completion rate, 13.9 yards per completion, a 50-yarder to Evan Engram, a 34-yarder to Vince Sanders. There was no Bad Bo to be found, and if Bad Bo is on two-month vacation, the Rebs are going to win a lot of games.

(Bad Bo probably isn't on two-month vacation -- he made an extended appearance the week before against Memphis -- but if he also times his appearances well, Ole Miss could still roll.)