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2016 Northwestern advanced statistical profile

Updated on 1/13/2017

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2015 | 2016

Northwestern Wildcats (Big Ten West)

2016 Schedule & Results
Record: 7-6 | Second-order wins (diff.): 6.6 (-0.4) | S&P+ Rk: 49
Date Opponent Opp. S&P+ Rk Score W-L Win
Expectancy		 Adj. Scoring
Margin		 Percentile
Performance		 Off.
Percentile		 Def.
Percentile
4-Sep Western Michigan 35 21-22 L 65% 3.0 77% 72% 91%
10-Sep Illinois State N/A 7-9 L 23% -5.8 35% 3% 63%
17-Sep Duke 72 24-13 W 76% 5.6 64% 40% 70%
24-Sep Nebraska 46 13-24 L 6% -12.4 36% 44% 23%
1-Oct at Iowa 30 38-31 W 88% 9.4 85% 77% 70%
15-Oct at Michigan State 57 54-40 W 46% -0.9 55% 80% 14%
22-Oct Indiana 53 24-14 W 73% 4.8 73% 58% 75%
29-Oct at Ohio State 5 20-24 L 46% -0.8 81% 83% 58%
5-Nov Wisconsin 11 7-21 L 15% -8.1 59% 30% 74%
12-Nov at Purdue 105 45-17 W 100% 24.9 85% 83% 61%
19-Nov at Minnesota 42 12-29 L 4% -14.1 33% 16% 49%
26-Nov Illinois 95 42-21 W 92% 11.2 68% 70% 35%
28-Dec vs. Pittsburgh 20 31-24 W 23% -5.9 56% 42% 63%
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
S&P+ 29.8 63 24.0 32
Points Per Game 26.0 86 22.2 24
Five Factors
Offense Defense
Category Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP 1.25 72 1.20 31 1.27
EFFICIENCY Success Rate 39.9% 99 41.4% 52 40.9%
FIELD POSITION Avg. FP 28.8 87 30.2 87 29.7
FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Trip in 40 4.37 82 3.56 8 4.47
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED 2.11 52 Turnover Luck (PPG):
+2.65
ACTUAL 9 14
Rushing
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Rushing S&P+ 98.0 85 107.7 37 100.0
Rushing Success Rate 36.7% 119 41.1% 47 43.1%
Rushing IsoPPP 1.24 16 0.97 20 1.08
Adj. Line Yards 101.8 68 113.6 17 100.0
Opportunity Rate 33.6% 118 34.2% 20 39.7%
Power Success Rate 66.7% 74 77.3% 120 67.9%
Stuff Rate 22.7% 115 21.7% 36 18.9%

Individual Rushing Stats

Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry		 Hlt Yds/
Opp.		 Opp.
Rate		 Fumbles
(Lost)
Justin Jackson RB 5'11, 193 JR 298 1524 15 5.1 7.0 32.2% 1 (1)
Clayton Thorson QB 6'4, 220 SO 59 309 5 5.2 5.7 33.9% 7 (6)
John Moten IV RB 6'0, 202 FR 57 340 2 6.0 4.9 50.9% 0 (0)
Solomon Vault WR 5'10, 190 JR 11 26 0 2.4 0.6 18.2% 0 (0)
Auston Anderson RB 5'9, 190 SO 7 22 0 3.1 2.9 14.3% 0 (0)
Corey Acker RB 5'9, 175 JR 4 -2 0 -0.5 0.0 0.0% 0 (0)
Matt Alviti QB 6'0, 200 JR 3 12 0 4.0 1.5 33.3% 0 (0)
Tom Hruby LB 6'3, 240 SR 3 -2 0 -0.7 0.0 0.0% 1 (0)
Jelani Roberts WR 5'8, 166 SO 3 -4 0 -1.3 0.0 0.0% 0 (0)
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Passing
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Passing S&P+ 98.0 73 103.6 49 100.0
Passing Success Rate 42.5% 44 41.6% 69 40.9%
Passing IsoPPP 1.26 121 1.41 36 1.49
Adj. Sack Rate 87 93 87.4 91 100

Individual Passing Stats

Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate		 Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Clayton Thorson 6'4, 220 SO 280 478 3182 22 9 58.6% 38 7.4% 5.8
Matt Alviti 6'0, 200 JR 1 1 2 0 0 100.0% 1 50.0% -3.5

Individual Receiving Stats

Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch		 Yds/
Target		 Catch Rate Success Rate Target
Rate
Austin Carr WR 6'1, 200 SR 131 90 1247 12 13.9 9.5 68.7% 60.3% 27.9%
Flynn Nagel WR 5'11, 181 SO 65 40 447 2 11.2 6.9 61.5% 49.2% 13.9%
Justin Jackson RB 5'11, 193 JR 54 35 219 0 6.3 4.1 64.8% 33.3% 11.5%
Garrett Dickerson SB 6'3, 240 JR 49 34 318 5 9.4 6.5 69.4% 44.9% 10.4%
Andrew Scanlan WR 6'2, 215 SR 46 29 331 0 11.4 7.2 63.0% 52.2% 9.8%
Macan Wilson WR 6'0, 186 JR 41 22 306 1 13.9 7.5 53.7% 48.8% 8.7%
Solomon Vault WR 5'10, 190 JR 36 15 164 2 10.9 4.6 41.7% 27.8% 7.7%
Bennett Skowronek WR 6'4, 210 FR 27 8 70 0 8.8 2.6 29.6% 29.6% 5.8%
Cameron Green SB 6'3, 210 FR 7 4 31 0 7.8 4.4 57.1% 57.1% 1.5%
John Moten IV RB 6'0, 202 FR 4 3 44 0 14.7 11.0 75.0% 75.0% 0.9%
Charlie Fessler WR 6'4, 215 FR 2 1 7 0 7.0 3.5 50.0% 50.0% 0.4%
James Prather SB 6'4, 230 SO 2 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.4%
Auston Anderson RB 5'9, 190 SO 2 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.4%
Matt Micucci PK 5'11, 190 SR 1 1 2 0 2.0 2.0 100.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Marcus McShepard DB 5'11, 200 JR 1 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Ifeadi Odenigbo DL 6'3, 265 SR 1 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Standard Downs
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Standard Downs S&P+ 100.0 71 98.5 70 100.0
Standard Downs Success Rate 45.3% 95 48.8% 79 47.3%
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.05 92 1.09 56 1.12
SD Line Yards per Carry 2.74 102 2.86 53 2.98
SD Sack Rate 5.5% 82 2.3% 120 5.1%
Passing Downs
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Passing Downs S&P+ 98.7 79 121.3 16 100.0
Passing Downs Success Rate 29.3% 84 25.4% 14 31.1%
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.84 37 1.62 23 1.76
PD Line Yards per Carry 2.88 98 1.87 4 3.24
PD Sack Rate 10.1% 101 8.5% 46 7.9%
Situational
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk
Q1 S&P+ 98.6 81 116.8 23
Q2 S&P+ 102.2 66 106.5 49
Q3 S&P+ 112.3 34 99.7 65
Q4 S&P+ 83.4 121 97.5 73
1st Down S&P+ 99.2 72 93.4 91
2nd Down S&P+ 92.4 99 118.8 20
3rd Down S&P+ 109.8 42 114.8 29
Offensive Footprint
Team Rk Nat'l Average
Std. Downs Run Rate 50.9% 110 60.2%
Pass Downs Run Rate 35.2% 49 34.6%
Adj. Pace +3.0 34 +0.0
% of Solo Tackles 77.7% 36 74.2%
Defensive Footprint
Team Rk Nat'l Average
Std. Downs Run Rate 57.5% 89 60.2%
Pass. Downs Run Rate 27.5% 118 34.5%
Overall Havoc Rate 16.1% 51 15.8%
DL Havoc Rate 5.2% 52 5.0%
LB Havoc Rate 4.1% 64 4.3%
DB Havoc Rate 6.7% 45 6.4%
PD to INC 36.3% 35 33.1%
Individual Defensive Stats
Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF
Godwin Igwebuike S 6'0, 205 JR 93.0 12.5% 6.0 0.0 2 7 1
Anthony Walker, Jr. LB 6'1, 245 JR 83.5 11.2% 10.0 2.0 1 5 4
Nate Hall LB 6'2, 230 SO 58.0 7.8% 6.0 0.0 0 2 0
Montre Hartage CB 6'0, 190 SO 54.0 7.2% 0.0 0.0 5 9 0
Jaylen Prater LB 6'0, 230 SR 46.0 6.2% 2.0 0.0 0 1 0
Kyle Queiro S 6'3, 200 JR 42.5 5.7% 3.5 0.0 2 6 0
Trae Williams DB 5'11, 200 FR 37.5 5.0% 1.0 0.0 1 7 0
Joseph Jones LB 6'1, 235 SR 36.0 4.8% 4.5 2.0 0 2 0
Jared McGee S 6'1, 215 SO 31.0 4.2% 1.5 0.0 3 3 0
Xavier Washington DE 6'1, 243 JR 29.0 3.9% 7.5 4.5 0 0 0
Brett Walsh LB 6'1, 215 JR 29.0 3.9% 2.0 1.0 0 0 0
C.J. Robbins DL 6'5, 305 SR 25.0 3.3% 5.5 3.0 0 1 2
Marcus McShepard DB 5'11, 200 JR 25.0 3.3% 0.0 0.0 1 4 0
Tyler Lancaster DL 6'3, 310 JR 21.0 2.8% 3.5 0.0 0 0 0
Joe Gaziano DL 6'4, 265 FR 19.5 2.6% 6.5 4.5 0 2 0
Ifeadi Odenigbo DL 6'3, 265 SR 19.0 2.5% 12.0 10.0 0 0 2
Jordan Thompson DL 6'3, 290 SO 14.0 1.9% 2.0 0.0 0 1 0
Fred Wyatt DL 6'4, 285 SO 13.0 1.7% 1.5 0.0 0 1 0
Nathan Fox LB 6'2, 245 FR 9.5 1.3% 0.5 0.0 0 0 0
Alex Miller DL 6'3, 260 FR 9.5 1.3% 0.0 0.0 0 1 0
Alonzo Mayo DB 5'11, 170 FR 7.5 1.0% 0.5 0.0 0 1 0
Matthew Harris CB 5'11, 184 SR 6.0 0.8% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0
Greg Kuhar DL 6'3, 309 SR 5.0 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0
Trent Goens DL 6'3, 250 FR 4.0 0.5% 1.0 0.0 1 0 0
Corey Acker RB 5'9, 175 JR 4.0 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0
Special Teams

 Rating Rank
Special Teams S&P+ -1.2 109
Category Rate Rank
FG Value (per kick) -0.40 118
Punt Success Rate 50.7% 94
Kickoff Success Rate 69.2% 80
Punt Return Success Rate 40.0% 105
Kick Return Success Rate 51.7% 29
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
Jack Mitchell 6'3, 210 SR 42-43 8-12 66.7%
Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Hunter Niswander 6'5, 240 JR 73 41.3 6 20 20 54.8%
Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches		 Onside
Att		 Onside
Success
Jack Mitchell 6'3, 210 SR 65 61.3 32 49.2% 0 1 1 0
Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Flynn Nagel 5'11, 181 SO 20 6.6 0 22 0 (0)
Matthew Harris 5'11, 184 SR 0 0.0 0 1 0 (0)
Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Solomon Vault 5'10, 190 JR 23 24.3 1 0 0 (0)
Flynn Nagel 5'11, 181 SO 5 19.6 0 0 0 (0)
Garrett Dickerson 6'3, 240 JR 1 13.0 0 0 0 (0)

Stats via SportSource Analytics