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2015 North Carolina advanced statistical profile

Updated on 8/20/2016

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2015 | 2016

North Carolina Tar Heels (ACC Coastal)

2015 Schedule & Results
Record: 11-3 | Second-order wins (diff.): 11.0 (0.0) | S&P+ Rk: 29
Date Opponent Opp. S&P+ Rk Score W-L Win
Expectancy		 Adj. Scoring
Margin		 Percentile
Performance		 Off.
Percentile		 Def.
Percentile
3-Sep vs. South Carolina 88 13-17 L 36% -2.8 50% 30% 40%
12-Sep NC A&T N/A 53-14 W 100% 35.2 71% 59% 57%
19-Sep Illinois 61 48-14 W 97% 14.9 86% 83% 45%
26-Sep Delaware N/A 41-14 W 96% 13.6 41% 37% 17%
3-Oct at Georgia Tech 68 38-31 W 71% 4.5 72% 70% 39%
17-Oct Wake Forest 92 50-14 W 100% 26.9 70% 93% 50%
24-Oct Virginia 73 26-13 W 99% 18.8 65% 76% 89%
29-Oct at Pittsburgh 40 26-19 W 96% 13.8 81% 78% 82%
7-Nov Duke 75 66-31 W 100% 24.6 89% 97% 38%
14-Nov Miami-FL 51 59-21 W 99% 19.4 85% 78% 84%
21-Nov at Virginia Tech 59 30-27 W 83% 7.5 55% 71% 62%
28-Nov at NC State 36 45-34 W 82% 7.4 59% 84% 53%
5-Dec vs. Clemson 2 37-45 L 28% -4.6 56% 80% 70%
29-Dec vs. Baylor 14 38-49 L 11% -10.0 36% 91% 36%
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
S&P+ 39.1 17 28.6 70
Points Per Game 40.7 9 24.5 42
Five Factors
Offense Defense
Category Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP 1.44 4 1.11 5 1.27
EFFICIENCY Success Rate 46.8% 18 46.2% 108 40.3%
FIELD POSITION Avg. FP 32.3 25 28.0 34 29.9
FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Trip in 40 5.28 21 3.99 20 4.67
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED 3.11 41 Turnover Luck (PPG):
+1.39
ACTUAL 7 27
Rushing
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Rushing S&P+ 120.3 12 85.6 116 100.0
Rushing Success Rate 49.4% 11 49.4% 117 42.3%
Rushing IsoPPP 1.23 13 1.04 52 1.08
Adj. Line Yards 124 3 88 117 100.0
Opportunity Rate 43.3% 20 42.8% 114 38.9%
Power Success Rate 58.8% 109 68.2% 81 66.3%
Stuff Rate 15.2% 6 13.7% 125 19.6%

Individual Rushing Stats

Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry		 Hlt Yds/
Opp.		 Opp.
Rate		 Fumbles
(Lost)
Elijah Hood TB 6'0, 220 SO 219 1463 17 6.7 6.2 46.6% 4 (1)
Marquise Williams QB 6'2, 225 SR 143 1052 13 7.4 7.6 46.2% 9 (5)
T.J. Logan TB 5'10, 190 JR 67 400 5 6.0 7.4 35.8% 3 (1)
Ty'Son Williams TB 6'0, 220 FR 19 57 0 3.0 1.5 21.1% 0 (0)
Mitch Trubisky QB 6'3, 220 SO 15 109 3 7.3 10.0 40.0% 2 (1)
Khris Francis TB 5'9, 210 JR 11 37 0 3.4 4.6 18.2% 0 (0)
Romar Morris TB 5'10, 190 SR 10 64 1 6.4 3.2 60.0% 0 (0)
Charles Brunson TB 5'11, 205 JR 9 25 1 2.8 2.5 22.2% 0 (0)
Caleb Henderson QB 6'3, 215 FR 5 53 0 10.6 6.4 80.0% 1 (0)
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Passing
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Passing S&P+ 117.8 24 104.1 55 100.0
Passing Success Rate 43.8% 38 41.5% 72 40.3%
Passing IsoPPP 1.70 12 1.23 6 1.49
Adj. Sack Rate 150.9 27 85.3 91 100

Individual Passing Stats

Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate		 Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Marquise Williams 6'2, 225 SR 219 357 3072 24 10 61.3% 15 4.0% 8.0
Mitch Trubisky 6'3, 220 SO 40 47 555 6 0 85.1% 1 2.1% 11.4
Caleb Henderson 6'3, 215 FR 0 1 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.0

Individual Receiving Stats

Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch		 Yds/
Target		 Catch Rate Success Rate Target
Rate
Quinshad Davis WR 6'4, 220 SR 82 55 638 4 11.6 7.8 67.1% 58.5% 21.0%
Ryan Switzer WR 5'10, 185 JR 79 56 708 6 12.6 9.0 70.9% 45.6% 20.2%
Bug Howard WR 6'5, 210 JR 57 29 488 4 16.8 8.6 50.9% 43.9% 14.6%
Mack Hollins WR 6'4, 210 JR 51 30 745 8 24.8 14.6 58.8% 52.9% 13.0%
Brandon Fritts TE 6'4, 245 FR 21 16 203 4 12.7 9.7 76.2% 66.7% 5.4%
Kendrick Singleton TE 6'2, 215 SR 21 12 142 2 11.8 6.8 57.1% 38.1% 5.4%
T.J. Logan TB 5'10, 190 JR 16 11 151 1 13.7 9.4 68.8% 43.8% 4.1%
Elijah Hood TB 6'0, 220 SO 16 13 71 0 5.5 4.4 81.2% 31.2% 4.1%
Austin Proehl WR 5'10, 175 SO 14 12 225 1 18.8 16.1 85.7% 78.6% 3.6%
Damien Washington WR 6'1, 195 SR 11 8 115 0 14.4 10.5 72.7% 72.7% 2.8%
Romar Morris TB 5'10, 190 SR 9 9 54 0 6.0 6.0 100.0% 66.7% 2.3%
Jordan Fieulleteau WR 6'3, 210 SO 7 6 100 0 16.7 14.3 85.7% 57.1% 1.8%
Dalton Stogner WR 6'4, 200 JR 2 2 9 0 4.5 4.5 100.0% 0.0% 0.5%
Charles Brunson TB 5'11, 205 JR 2 1 0 0 0.0 0.0 50.0% 0.0% 0.5%
Marquise Williams QB 6'2, 225 SR 1 1 37 1 37.0 37.0 100.0% 100.0% 0.3%
Shakeel Rashad LB 6'2, 235 SR 1 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
Standard Downs
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Standard Downs S&P+ 120.3 9 94.4 87 100.0
Standard Downs Success Rate 50.6% 26 52.2% 114 46.5%
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.33 4 1.01 17 1.11
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.41 5 3.42 124 2.90
SD Sack Rate 3.6% 35 5.0% 65 5.0%
Passing Downs
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Passing Downs S&P+ 117.3 28 98.5 75 100.0
Passing Downs Success Rate 36.7% 20 30.0% 57 30.7%
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.82 55 1.60 25 1.77
PD Line Yards per Carry 4.06 5 3.60 104 3.20
PD Sack Rate 5.2% 21 4.9% 108 7.5%
Situational
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk
Q1 S&P+ 122.6 17 100.6 59
Q2 S&P+ 123.5 15 94.3 84
Q3 S&P+ 134.7 4 86.4 114
Q4 S&P+ 119.4 13 97.9 77
1st Down S&P+ 130.4 2 94.8 91
2nd Down S&P+ 119.4 21 94.6 89
3rd Down S&P+ 118.1 20 99.3 73
Offensive Footprint
Team Rk Nat'l Average
Std. Downs Run Rate 59.6% 68 60.4%
Pass Downs Run Rate 36.2% 45 34.0%
Adj. Pace -4.3 101 +0.0
% of Solo Tackles 71.5% 92 74.9%
Defensive Footprint
Team Rk Nat'l Average
Std. Downs Run Rate 66.2% 15 60.3%
Pass. Downs Run Rate 40.0% 14 33.9%
Overall Havoc Rate 14.0% 99 16.0%
DL Havoc Rate 4.1% 87 5.1%
LB Havoc Rate 3.2% 97 4.5%
DB Havoc Rate 6.6% 56 6.3%
PD to INC 39.9% 12 32.8%
Individual Defensive Stats
Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Shakeel Rashad LB 6'2, 235 SR 104.0 12.0% 8.5 1.5 2 2 3 0
Donnie Miles S 5'11, 210 SO 102.0 11.8% 2.0 0.0 0 2 1 0
Jeff Schoettmer LB 6'2, 235 SR 72.0 8.3% 6.5 0.0 2 1 1 0
Des Lawrence CB 6'1, 185 JR 51.0 5.9% 2.5 0.0 2 14 0 0
M.J. Stewart CB 5'11, 200 SO 48.0 5.5% 2.5 1.0 4 14 1 0
Andre Smith LB 6'0, 235 FR 38.5 4.4% 2.0 1.0 1 1 1 0
Sam Smiley S 5'11, 190 SR 36.5 4.2% 1.0 0.0 1 1 0 1
Dominquie Green S 5'11, 190 JR 33.5 3.9% 0.0 0.0 2 2 1 0
Cayson Collins LB 6'1, 235 SO 30.5 3.5% 3.0 0.0 0 0 1 0
Malik Simmons CB 5'11, 190 SR 30.0 3.5% 0.0 0.0 2 7 0 0
Dajaun Drennon DE 6'4, 255 SO 29.5 3.4% 5.0 1.5 0 1 0 0
Nazair Jones DT 6'5, 295 SO 29.5 3.4% 4.0 0.0 1 3 1 0
Jeremiah Clarke DT 6'5, 315 FR 29.5 3.4% 2.0 1.0 0 0 0 0
Justin Thomason DT 6'4, 295 SR 28.0 3.2% 4.5 3.5 0 0 0 0
Junior Gnonkonde DE 6'4, 260 JR 26.0 3.0% 7.0 3.5 0 1 0 1
Jessie Rogers DE 6'4, 270 SR 25.0 2.9% 2.5 1.0 0 0 0 0
Mikey Bart DE 6'3, 270 JR 22.5 2.6% 6.5 6.5 0 0 1 0
Tyler Powell DL 6'4, 290 SO 16.0 1.8% 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 0
Robert Dinkins DT 6'1, 270 FR 13.0 1.5% 1.0 1.0 0 1 0 0
Cole Holcomb LB 6'1, 215 FR 12.0 1.4% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Jalen Dalton DE 6'6, 280 FR 11.5 1.3% 1.0 0.0 0 2 0 0
Brian Walker CB 5'11, 190 JR 10.5 1.2% 1.0 0.0 0 5 0 0
Mike Hughes CB 5'11, 185 FR 10.5 1.2% 0.0 0.0 0 3 0 0
Malik Carney DE 6'3, 230 FR 8.0 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
J.K. Britt S 6'0, 195 FR 6.0 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0 2 0 0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.
Special Teams

 Rating Rank
Special Teams S&P+ 1.3 13
Category Rate Rank
FG Value (per kick) 0.49 4
Punt Success Rate 50.0% 96
Kickoff Success Rate 86.4% 14
Punt Return Success Rate 52.2% 52
Kick Return Success Rate 61.3% 11
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
Nick Weiler 6'0, 190 JR 67-67 20-23 87.0%
Freeman Jones 6'0, 200 FR 1-1 0-0 #DIV/0!
Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Joey Mangili 6'3, 210 JR 24 40.8 2 10 7 70.8%
Corbin Daly 6'3, 200 FR 13 37.9 1 4 3 53.8%
Hunter Lent 6'5, 230 FR 6 37.5 0 1 2 50.0%
Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches		 Onside
Att		 Onside
Success
Nick Weiler 6'0, 190 JR 103 62.9 55 53.4% 0 4 2 0
Freeman Jones 6'0, 200 FR 0 0.0 0 0.0% 0 1 1 0
Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Ryan Switzer 5'10, 185 JR 22 13.7 2 14 2 (0)
Bug Howard 6'5, 210 JR 1 1.0 0 0 0 (0)
Austin Proehl 5'10, 175 SO 0 0.0 0 1 0 (0)
Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
T.J. Logan 5'10, 190 JR 21 23.4 0 1 0 (0)
Dan Mastromatteo 6'2, 235 JR 3 2.0 0 0 1 (0)
Mike Hughes 5'11, 185 FR 3 35.3 0 0 1 (0)

Stats via SportSource Analytics