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2016 North Carolina advanced statistical profile

Updated on 1/13/2017

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2015 | 2016

North Carolina Tar Heels (ACC Coastal)

2016 Schedule & Results
Record: 8-5 | Second-order wins (diff.): 8.5 (0.5) | S&P+ Rk: 21
Date Opponent Opp. S&P+ Rk Score W-L Win
Expectancy
Adj. Scoring
Margin
Percentile
Performance
Off.
Percentile
Def.
Percentile
3-Sep vs. Georgia 68 24-33 L 20% -6.5 39% 57% 15%
10-Sep at Illinois 95 48-23 W 99% 20.1 81% 79% 48%
17-Sep James Madison N/A 56-28 W 100% 21.2 86% 99% 16%
24-Sep Pittsburgh 20 37-36 W 55% 1.0 69% 68% 52%
1-Oct at Florida State 6 37-35 W 56% 1.2 80% 91% 22%
8-Oct Virginia Tech 17 3-34 L 0% -27.5 17% 6% 93%
15-Oct at Miami-FL 14 20-13 W 82% 7.0 85% 72% 89%
22-Oct at Virginia 88 35-14 W 100% 26.6 89% 81% 77%
5-Nov Georgia Tech 45 48-20 W 95% 13.3 85% 98% 37%
10-Nov at Duke 72 27-28 L 61% 2.1 54% 58% 34%
19-Nov The Citadel N/A 41-7 W 100% 27.5 91% 73% 79%
25-Nov NC State 25 21-28 L 17% -7.5 50% 62% 30%
30-Dec vs. Stanford 23 23-25 L 68% 3.7 74% 47% 68%
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
S&P+ 36.3 26 26.6 44
Points Per Game 32.3 44 24.9 43
Five Factors
Offense Defense
Category Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP 1.40 15 1.17 19 1.27
EFFICIENCY Success Rate 45.6% 28 44.9% 97 40.9%
FIELD POSITION Avg. FP 28.4 97 28.8 51 29.7
FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Trip in 40 4.73 44 4.05 31 4.47
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED 7.43 12 Turnover Luck (PPG):
-3.63
ACTUAL -2 78
Rushing
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Rushing S&P+ 113.6 27 98.5 72 100.0
Rushing Success Rate 45.3% 49 46.2% 95 43.1%
Rushing IsoPPP 1.09 50 1.01 35 1.08
Adj. Line Yards 107.4 41 92.9 95 100.0
Opportunity Rate 41.8% 39 42.1% 98 39.7%
Power Success Rate 52.0% 127 67.6% 69 67.9%
Stuff Rate 22.0% 111 14.2% 120 18.9%

Individual Rushing Stats

Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Fumbles
(Lost)
Elijah Hood TB 6'0, 220 JR 145 858 8 5.9 6.6 42.1% 2 (2)
T.J. Logan TB 5'10, 190 SR 120 650 7 5.4 5.1 42.5% 2 (1)
Mitch Trubisky QB 6'3, 220 JR 73 440 5 6.0 5.0 52.1% 4 (3)
Jordon Brown RB 5'10, 180 FR 20 45 1 2.3 4.0 20.0% 0 (0)
Khris Francis TB 5'9, 210 SR 15 49 0 3.3 4.4 26.7% 2 (1)
Ryan Switzer WR 5'10, 185 SR 3 14 0 4.7 1.5 33.3% 2 (2)
Anthony Ratliff-Williams WR 6'1, 200 FR 2 -10 0 -5.0 0.0 0.0% 1 (1)
Nathan Elliott QB 6'1, 195 FR 1 2 0 2.0 0.0 0.0% 0 (0)
Tom Sheldon P 6'3, 200 FR 1 -18 0 -18.0 0.0 0.0% 1 (0)
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Passing
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Passing S&P+ 123.0 16 98.6 69 100.0
Passing Success Rate 45.9% 16 42.9% 81 40.9%
Passing IsoPPP 1.63 25 1.43 47 1.49
Adj. Sack Rate 158.6 17 105.2 57 100

Individual Passing Stats

Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Mitch Trubisky 6'3, 220 JR 304 447 3748 30 6 68.0% 20 4.3% 7.7
Nathan Elliott 6'1, 195 FR 8 9 55 0 0 88.9% 0 0.0% 6.1

Individual Receiving Stats

Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate Success Rate Target
Rate
Ryan Switzer WR 5'10, 185 SR 128 96 1112 6 11.6 8.7 75.0% 46.1% 28.6%
Bug Howard WR 6'5, 210 SR 84 53 827 8 15.6 9.9 63.1% 53.6% 18.8%
Austin Proehl WR 5'10, 175 JR 75 43 597 3 13.9 8.0 57.3% 49.3% 16.7%
T.J. Logan TB 5'10, 190 SR 34 29 244 3 8.4 7.2 85.3% 35.3% 7.6%
Mack Hollins WR 6'4, 210 SR 29 16 309 4 19.3 10.7 55.2% 41.4% 6.5%
Elijah Hood TB 6'0, 220 JR 27 25 142 0 5.7 5.3 92.6% 44.4% 6.0%
Thomas Jackson WR 5'11, 195 JR 18 17 186 4 10.9 10.3 94.4% 77.8% 4.0%
Carl Tucker TE 6'2, 240 FR 15 9 130 1 14.4 8.7 60.0% 53.3% 3.3%
Jordan Cunningham WR 6'2, 190 JR 10 6 82 0 13.7 8.2 60.0% 50.0% 2.2%
Brandon Fritts TE 6'4, 245 SO 8 6 59 1 9.8 7.4 75.0% 50.0% 1.8%
Anthony Ratliff-Williams WR 6'1, 200 FR 8 3 21 0 7.0 2.6 37.5% 25.0% 1.8%
Khris Francis TB 5'9, 210 SR 4 4 46 0 11.5 11.5 100.0% 50.0% 0.9%
Jake Bargas TE 6'4, 230 FR 2 2 22 0 11.0 11.0 100.0% 50.0% 0.4%
Mitch Trubisky QB 6'3, 220 JR 2 1 8 0 8.0 4.0 50.0% 50.0% 0.4%
Jordon Brown RB 5'10, 180 FR 1 1 15 0 15.0 15.0 100.0% 100.0% 0.2%
Devin Perry WR 6'2, 205 SO 1 1 6 0 6.0 6.0 100.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Standard Downs
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Standard Downs S&P+ 116.4 16 100.2 58 100.0
Standard Downs Success Rate 48.7% 47 49.8% 90 47.3%
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.25 20 1.08 50 1.12
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.02 63 3.30 108 2.98
SD Sack Rate 4.0% 43 4.3% 82 5.1%
Passing Downs
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Passing Downs S&P+ 130.8 9 103.5 58 100.0
Passing Downs Success Rate 39.2% 8 32.9% 89 31.1%
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.77 55 1.48 3 1.76
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.14 79 2.79 26 3.24
PD Sack Rate 5.5% 30 9.9% 18 7.9%
Situational
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk
Q1 S&P+ 129.3 10 98.6 73
Q2 S&P+ 114.3 33 102.3 60
Q3 S&P+ 118.7 25 102.7 53
Q4 S&P+ 109.5 36 101.6 60
1st Down S&P+ 119.4 16 96.7 79
2nd Down S&P+ 120.7 17 105.1 49
3rd Down S&P+ 114.7 31 111.3 40
Offensive Footprint
Team Rk Nat'l Average
Std. Downs Run Rate 51.5% 106 60.2%
Pass Downs Run Rate 25.3% 110 34.6%
Adj. Pace -7.0 118 +0.0
% of Solo Tackles 73.0% 79 74.2%
Defensive Footprint
Team Rk Nat'l Average
Std. Downs Run Rate 68.4% 13 60.2%
Pass. Downs Run Rate 45.4% 2 34.5%
Overall Havoc Rate 12.6% 112 15.8%
DL Havoc Rate 5.1% 56 5.0%
LB Havoc Rate 2.8% 108 4.3%
DB Havoc Rate 4.6% 119 6.4%
PD to INC 32.4% 72 33.1%
Individual Defensive Stats
Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF
Cole Holcomb LB 6'1, 215 SO 88.5 11.3% 5.0 1.0 0 5 0
Andre Smith LB 6'0, 235 SO 84.5 10.8% 6.0 1.0 0 3 1
Donnie Miles S 5'11, 210 JR 77.5 9.9% 3.0 0.0 0 2 0
M.J. Stewart CB 5'11, 200 JR 57.0 7.3% 3.5 0.0 0 11 2
Dominquie Green S 5'11, 190 SR 53.0 6.8% 1.0 0.0 1 5 0
Nazair Jones DT 6'5, 295 JR 51.0 6.5% 9.5 2.5 0 3 1
Cayson Collins LB 6'1, 235 JR 45.0 5.8% 4.0 0.0 0 0 2
Malik Carney DE 6'3, 230 SO 35.0 4.5% 8.5 5.5 0 0 2
Des Lawrence CB 6'1, 185 SR 32.5 4.2% 2.0 1.0 0 10 0
Jeremiah Clarke DT 6'5, 315 SO 31.0 4.0% 4.0 2.0 0 2 0
Aaron Crawford DT 6'1, 310 FR 28.5 3.6% 1.5 1.0 0 0 0
Myles Dorn DB 6'2, 185 FR 23.5 3.0% 1.0 0.0 0 1 0
Mikey Bart DE 6'3, 270 SR 23.0 2.9% 5.0 4.0 0 1 1
Jalen Dalton DT 6'6, 280 SO 20.0 2.6% 1.5 0.0 0 1 0
Ayden Bonilla LB 6'2, 220 SO 17.0 2.2% 0.0 0.0 0 0 1
Tyler Powell DL 6'4, 290 JR 13.5 1.7% 3.0 1.5 0 0 0
Corey Bell Jr. CB 5'9, 170 SO 13.5 1.7% 1.0 0.0 0 0 0
Patrice Rene DB 6'2, 200 FR 12.5 1.6% 0.0 0.0 0 2 0
Dajaun Drennon DE 6'4, 255 JR 11.0 1.4% 1.0 1.0 0 0 0
Dominique Ross LB 6'3, 210 FR 9.0 1.2% 1.0 1.0 0 0 0
Jason Strowbridge DE 6'4, 250 FR 8.5 1.1% 2.5 2.0 0 0 0
J.K. Britt S 6'0, 195 SO 6.0 0.8% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0
Hunter Crafford LB 6'2, 225 JR 5.5 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0
Khris Francis TB 5'9, 210 SR 4.5 0.6% 1.0 0.0 0 0 0
Anthony Ratliff-Williams WR 6'1, 200 FR 3.5 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0
Special Teams

Rating Rank
Special Teams S&P+ 1.4 9
Category Rate Rank
FG Value (per kick) 0.24 36
Punt Success Rate 70.0% 14
Kickoff Success Rate 80.7% 34
Punt Return Success Rate 58.8% 38
Kick Return Success Rate 48.5% 41
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
Nick Weiler 6'0, 190 SR 51-52 15-21 71.4%
Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Tom Sheldon 6'3, 200 FR 50 42.7 6 21 15 72.0%
Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
Nick Weiler 6'0, 190 SR 80 64.1 47 58.8% 0 1 1 0
Tom Sheldon 6'3, 200 FR 2 58.0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0
Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Ryan Switzer 5'10, 185 SR 16 6.6 0 13 1 (1)
Austin Proehl 5'10, 175 JR 1 28.0 0 1 0 (0)
Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
T.J. Logan 5'10, 190 SR 21 32.9 2 0 0 (0)
Anthony Ratliff-Williams 6'1, 200 FR 7 19.7 0 0 0 (0)
Khris Francis 5'9, 210 SR 4 12.8 0 0 1 (0)

Stats via SportSource Analytics