Updated on 1/13/2017
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2015 | 2016
North Carolina Tar Heels (ACC Coastal)
2016 Schedule & Results
| Record: 8-5 | Second-order wins (diff.): 8.5 (0.5) | S&P+ Rk: 21 | |||||||||
| Date | Opponent | Opp. S&P+ Rk | Score | W-L | Win Expectancy |
Adj. Scoring Margin |
Percentile Performance |
Off. Percentile |
Def. Percentile |
| 3-Sep | vs. Georgia | 68 | 24-33 | L | 20% | -6.5 | 39% | 57% | 15% |
| 10-Sep | at Illinois | 95 | 48-23 | W | 99% | 20.1 | 81% | 79% | 48% |
| 17-Sep | James Madison | N/A | 56-28 | W | 100% | 21.2 | 86% | 99% | 16% |
| 24-Sep | Pittsburgh | 20 | 37-36 | W | 55% | 1.0 | 69% | 68% | 52% |
| 1-Oct | at Florida State | 6 | 37-35 | W | 56% | 1.2 | 80% | 91% | 22% |
| 8-Oct | Virginia Tech | 17 | 3-34 | L | 0% | -27.5 | 17% | 6% | 93% |
| 15-Oct | at Miami-FL | 14 | 20-13 | W | 82% | 7.0 | 85% | 72% | 89% |
| 22-Oct | at Virginia | 88 | 35-14 | W | 100% | 26.6 | 89% | 81% | 77% |
| 5-Nov | Georgia Tech | 45 | 48-20 | W | 95% | 13.3 | 85% | 98% | 37% |
| 10-Nov | at Duke | 72 | 27-28 | L | 61% | 2.1 | 54% | 58% | 34% |
| 19-Nov | The Citadel | N/A | 41-7 | W | 100% | 27.5 | 91% | 73% | 79% |
| 25-Nov | NC State | 25 | 21-28 | L | 17% | -7.5 | 50% | 62% | 30% |
| 30-Dec | vs. Stanford | 23 | 23-25 | L | 68% | 3.7 | 74% | 47% | 68% |
| Category | Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk |
| S&P+ | 36.3 | 26 | 26.6 | 44 |
| Points Per Game | 32.3 | 44 | 24.9 | 43 |
Five Factors
| Offense | Defense | |||||
| Category | Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Nat'l Avg. | |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | IsoPPP | 1.40 | 15 | 1.17 | 19 | 1.27 |
| EFFICIENCY | Success Rate | 45.6% | 28 | 44.9% | 97 | 40.9% |
| FIELD POSITION | Avg. FP | 28.4 | 97 | 28.8 | 51 | 29.7 |
| FINISHING DRIVES | Pts. Per Trip in 40 | 4.73 | 44 | 4.05 | 31 | 4.47 |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED | 7.43 | 12 | Turnover Luck (PPG): -3.63 |
||
| ACTUAL | -2 | 78 | ||||
Rushing
| Offense | Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Nat'l Avg. | |
| Rushing S&P+ | 113.6 | 27 | 98.5 | 72 | 100.0 |
| Rushing Success Rate | 45.3% | 49 | 46.2% | 95 | 43.1% |
| Rushing IsoPPP | 1.09 | 50 | 1.01 | 35 | 1.08 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 107.4 | 41 | 92.9 | 95 | 100.0 |
| Opportunity Rate | 41.8% | 39 | 42.1% | 98 | 39.7% |
| Power Success Rate | 52.0% | 127 | 67.6% | 69 | 67.9% |
| Stuff Rate | 22.0% | 111 | 14.2% | 120 | 18.9% |
Individual Rushing Stats
| Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Rushes | Yards | TD | Yards/ Carry |
Hlt Yds/ Opp. |
Opp. Rate |
Fumbles (Lost) |
| Elijah Hood | TB | 6'0, 220 | JR | 145 | 858 | 8 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 42.1% | 2 (2) |
| T.J. Logan | TB | 5'10, 190 | SR | 120 | 650 | 7 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 42.5% | 2 (1) |
| Mitch Trubisky | QB | 6'3, 220 | JR | 73 | 440 | 5 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 52.1% | 4 (3) |
| Jordon Brown | RB | 5'10, 180 | FR | 20 | 45 | 1 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 20.0% | 0 (0) |
| Khris Francis | TB | 5'9, 210 | SR | 15 | 49 | 0 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 26.7% | 2 (1) |
| Ryan Switzer | WR | 5'10, 185 | SR | 3 | 14 | 0 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 33.3% | 2 (2) |
| Anthony Ratliff-Williams | WR | 6'1, 200 | FR | 2 | -10 | 0 | -5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 1 (1) |
| Nathan Elliott | QB | 6'1, 195 | FR | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0 (0) |
| Tom Sheldon | P | 6'3, 200 | FR | 1 | -18 | 0 | -18.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 1 (0) |
| NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns. | ||||||||||
Passing
| Offense | Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Nat'l Avg. | |
| Passing S&P+ | 123.0 | 16 | 98.6 | 69 | 100.0 |
| Passing Success Rate | 45.9% | 16 | 42.9% | 81 | 40.9% |
| Passing IsoPPP | 1.63 | 25 | 1.43 | 47 | 1.49 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 158.6 | 17 | 105.2 | 57 | 100 |
Individual Passing Stats
| Player | Ht, Wt | Year | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp Rate |
Sacks | Sack Rate | Yards/ Att. |
| Mitch Trubisky | 6'3, 220 | JR | 304 | 447 | 3748 | 30 | 6 | 68.0% | 20 | 4.3% | 7.7 |
| Nathan Elliott | 6'1, 195 | FR | 8 | 9 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 88.9% | 0 | 0.0% | 6.1 |
Individual Receiving Stats
| Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD | Yds/ Catch |
Yds/ Target |
Catch Rate | Success Rate | Target Rate |
| Ryan Switzer | WR | 5'10, 185 | SR | 128 | 96 | 1112 | 6 | 11.6 | 8.7 | 75.0% | 46.1% | 28.6% |
| Bug Howard | WR | 6'5, 210 | SR | 84 | 53 | 827 | 8 | 15.6 | 9.9 | 63.1% | 53.6% | 18.8% |
| Austin Proehl | WR | 5'10, 175 | JR | 75 | 43 | 597 | 3 | 13.9 | 8.0 | 57.3% | 49.3% | 16.7% |
| T.J. Logan | TB | 5'10, 190 | SR | 34 | 29 | 244 | 3 | 8.4 | 7.2 | 85.3% | 35.3% | 7.6% |
| Mack Hollins | WR | 6'4, 210 | SR | 29 | 16 | 309 | 4 | 19.3 | 10.7 | 55.2% | 41.4% | 6.5% |
| Elijah Hood | TB | 6'0, 220 | JR | 27 | 25 | 142 | 0 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 92.6% | 44.4% | 6.0% |
| Thomas Jackson | WR | 5'11, 195 | JR | 18 | 17 | 186 | 4 | 10.9 | 10.3 | 94.4% | 77.8% | 4.0% |
| Carl Tucker | TE | 6'2, 240 | FR | 15 | 9 | 130 | 1 | 14.4 | 8.7 | 60.0% | 53.3% | 3.3% |
| Jordan Cunningham | WR | 6'2, 190 | JR | 10 | 6 | 82 | 0 | 13.7 | 8.2 | 60.0% | 50.0% | 2.2% |
| Brandon Fritts | TE | 6'4, 245 | SO | 8 | 6 | 59 | 1 | 9.8 | 7.4 | 75.0% | 50.0% | 1.8% |
| Anthony Ratliff-Williams | WR | 6'1, 200 | FR | 8 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 37.5% | 25.0% | 1.8% |
| Khris Francis | TB | 5'9, 210 | SR | 4 | 4 | 46 | 0 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 100.0% | 50.0% | 0.9% |
| Jake Bargas | TE | 6'4, 230 | FR | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 100.0% | 50.0% | 0.4% |
| Mitch Trubisky | QB | 6'3, 220 | JR | 2 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 0.4% |
| Jordon Brown | RB | 5'10, 180 | FR | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.2% |
| Devin Perry | WR | 6'2, 205 | SO | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
Standard Downs
| Offense | Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Nat'l Avg. | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 116.4 | 16 | 100.2 | 58 | 100.0 |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 48.7% | 47 | 49.8% | 90 | 47.3% |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.25 | 20 | 1.08 | 50 | 1.12 |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.02 | 63 | 3.30 | 108 | 2.98 |
| SD Sack Rate | 4.0% | 43 | 4.3% | 82 | 5.1% |
Passing Downs
| Offense | Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Nat'l Avg. | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 130.8 | 9 | 103.5 | 58 | 100.0 |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 39.2% | 8 | 32.9% | 89 | 31.1% |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.77 | 55 | 1.48 | 3 | 1.76 |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.14 | 79 | 2.79 | 26 | 3.24 |
| PD Sack Rate | 5.5% | 30 | 9.9% | 18 | 7.9% |
Situational
| Offense | Defense | |||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | |
| Q1 S&P+ | 129.3 | 10 | 98.6 | 73 |
| Q2 S&P+ | 114.3 | 33 | 102.3 | 60 |
| Q3 S&P+ | 118.7 | 25 | 102.7 | 53 |
| Q4 S&P+ | 109.5 | 36 | 101.6 | 60 |
| 1st Down S&P+ | 119.4 | 16 | 96.7 | 79 |
| 2nd Down S&P+ | 120.7 | 17 | 105.1 | 49 |
| 3rd Down S&P+ | 114.7 | 31 | 111.3 | 40 |
Offensive Footprint
| Team | Rk | Nat'l Average | |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 51.5% | 106 | 60.2% |
| Pass Downs Run Rate | 25.3% | 110 | 34.6% |
| Adj. Pace | -7.0 | 118 | +0.0 |
| % of Solo Tackles | 73.0% | 79 | 74.2% |
Defensive Footprint
| Team | Rk | Nat'l Average | |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 68.4% | 13 | 60.2% |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 45.4% | 2 | 34.5% |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 12.6% | 112 | 15.8% |
| DL Havoc Rate | 5.1% | 56 | 5.0% |
| LB Havoc Rate | 2.8% | 108 | 4.3% |
| DB Havoc Rate | 4.6% | 119 | 6.4% |
| PD to INC | 32.4% | 72 | 33.1% |
Individual Defensive Stats
| Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | Year | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF |
| Cole Holcomb | LB | 6'1, 215 | SO | 88.5 | 11.3% | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| Andre Smith | LB | 6'0, 235 | SO | 84.5 | 10.8% | 6.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| Donnie Miles | S | 5'11, 210 | JR | 77.5 | 9.9% | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| M.J. Stewart | CB | 5'11, 200 | JR | 57.0 | 7.3% | 3.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 11 | 2 |
| Dominquie Green | S | 5'11, 190 | SR | 53.0 | 6.8% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Nazair Jones | DT | 6'5, 295 | JR | 51.0 | 6.5% | 9.5 | 2.5 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| Cayson Collins | LB | 6'1, 235 | JR | 45.0 | 5.8% | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Malik Carney | DE | 6'3, 230 | SO | 35.0 | 4.5% | 8.5 | 5.5 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Des Lawrence | CB | 6'1, 185 | SR | 32.5 | 4.2% | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 |
| Jeremiah Clarke | DT | 6'5, 315 | SO | 31.0 | 4.0% | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Aaron Crawford | DT | 6'1, 310 | FR | 28.5 | 3.6% | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Dorn | DB | 6'2, 185 | FR | 23.5 | 3.0% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Mikey Bart | DE | 6'3, 270 | SR | 23.0 | 2.9% | 5.0 | 4.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jalen Dalton | DT | 6'6, 280 | SO | 20.0 | 2.6% | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Ayden Bonilla | LB | 6'2, 220 | SO | 17.0 | 2.2% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyler Powell | DL | 6'4, 290 | JR | 13.5 | 1.7% | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Corey Bell Jr. | CB | 5'9, 170 | SO | 13.5 | 1.7% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrice Rene | DB | 6'2, 200 | FR | 12.5 | 1.6% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Dajaun Drennon | DE | 6'4, 255 | JR | 11.0 | 1.4% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dominique Ross | LB | 6'3, 210 | FR | 9.0 | 1.2% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Strowbridge | DE | 6'4, 250 | FR | 8.5 | 1.1% | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| J.K. Britt | S | 6'0, 195 | SO | 6.0 | 0.8% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hunter Crafford | LB | 6'2, 225 | JR | 5.5 | 0.7% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khris Francis | TB | 5'9, 210 | SR | 4.5 | 0.6% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Ratliff-Williams | WR | 6'1, 200 | FR | 3.5 | 0.4% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Special Teams
| Rating | Rank | |
| Special Teams S&P+ | 1.4 | 9 |
| Category | Rate | Rank |
| FG Value (per kick) | 0.24 | 36 |
| Punt Success Rate | 70.0% | 14 |
| Kickoff Success Rate | 80.7% | 34 |
| Punt Return Success Rate | 58.8% | 38 |
| Kick Return Success Rate | 48.5% | 41 |
| Place-Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | PAT | FG | Pct |
| Nick Weiler | 6'0, 190 | SR | 51-52 | 15-21 | 71.4% |
| Punter | Ht, Wt | Year | Punts | Avg | TB | FC | I20 | FC/I20 Ratio |
| Tom Sheldon | 6'3, 200 | FR | 50 | 42.7 | 6 | 21 | 15 | 72.0% |
| Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | Kickoffs | Avg | TB | TB% | OOB | Fair Catches |
Onside Att |
Onside Success |
| Nick Weiler | 6'0, 190 | SR | 80 | 64.1 | 47 | 58.8% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Tom Sheldon | 6'3, 200 | FR | 2 | 58.0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Punt Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Ryan Switzer | 5'10, 185 | SR | 16 | 6.6 | 0 | 13 | 1 (1) |
| Austin Proehl | 5'10, 175 | JR | 1 | 28.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 (0) |
| Kick Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| T.J. Logan | 5'10, 190 | SR | 21 | 32.9 | 2 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Anthony Ratliff-Williams | 6'1, 200 | FR | 7 | 19.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Khris Francis | 5'9, 210 | SR | 4 | 12.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 (0) |
Stats via SportSource Analytics