clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

2015 Penn State advanced statistical profile

Updated on 8/20/2016

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

Back to the index page.

Got position corrections? Note them here.

Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.

2015 | 2016

Penn State Nittany Lions (Big Ten East)

2015 Schedule & Results
Record: 7-6 | Second-order wins (diff.): 7.2 (0.2) | S&P+ Rk: 30
Date Opponent Opp. S&P+ Rk Score W-L Win
Expectancy
Adj. Scoring
Margin
Percentile
Performance
Off.
Percentile
Def.
Percentile
5-Sep at Temple 49 10-27 L 10% -10.1 75% 40% 59%
12-Sep Buffalo 96 27-14 W 96% 13.9 90% 43% 96%
19-Sep Rutgers 105 28-3 W 100% 35.3 88% 66% 86%
26-Sep San Diego State 45 37-21 W 99% 17.6 97% 84% 97%
3-Oct Army 123 20-14 W 72% 4.7 82% 21% 49%
10-Oct Indiana 60 29-7 W 92% 11.3 81% 48% 92%
17-Oct at Ohio State 3 10-38 L 0% -21.9 23% 59% 35%
24-Oct vs. Maryland 65 31-30 W 55% 1.0 27% 43% 35%
31-Oct Illinois 61 39-0 W 100% 34.6 88% 73% 98%
7-Nov at Northwestern 56 21-23 L 57% 1.5 46% 65% 34%
21-Nov Michigan 6 16-28 L 2% -15.8 35% 48% 72%
28-Nov at Michigan State 13 16-55 L 1% -19.6 9% 56% 7%
2-Jan vs. Georgia 32 17-24 L 30% -4.2 58% 60% 62%
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
S&P+ 29.9 59 19.5 15
Points Per Game 23.2 101 21.8 26
Five Factors
Offense Defense
Category Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP 1.40 13 1.17 21 1.27
EFFICIENCY Success Rate 36.4% 111 38.1% 33 40.3%
FIELD POSITION Avg. FP 31.4 38 31.5 103 29.9
FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Trip in 40 4.12 107 4.81 81 4.67
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED 7.13 18 Turnover Luck (PPG):
-1.20
ACTUAL 4 37
Rushing
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Rushing S&P+ 106.1 53 109.8 37 100.0
Rushing Success Rate 38.0% 107 39.1% 44 42.3%
Rushing IsoPPP 1.22 16 1.12 87 1.08
Adj. Line Yards 104.5 45 104.3 46 100.0
Opportunity Rate 38.2% 78 38.0% 65 38.9%
Power Success Rate 53.1% 122 68.6% 85 66.3%
Stuff Rate 25.1% 120 19.3% 77 19.6%

Individual Rushing Stats

Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Fumbles
(Lost)
Saquon Barkley RB 5'11, 222 FR 182 1076 7 5.9 7.3 40.7% 2 (1)
Akeel Lynch RB 5'11, 220 JR 55 282 2 5.1 8.7 29.1% 0 (0)
Nick Scott RB 5'11, 198 FR 30 133 1 4.4 4.0 33.3% 1 (1)
Christian Hackenberg QB 6'4, 228 JR 28 145 2 5.2 4.1 39.3% 3 (2)
Mark Allen RB 5'6, 181 FR 28 101 1 3.6 6.2 25.0% 1 (1)
Brandon Polk WR 5'9, 170 FR 18 159 1 8.8 8.0 66.7% 0 (0)
Trace McSorley QB 6'0, 196 FR 12 48 0 4.0 2.4 41.7% 0 (0)
Johnathan Thomas RB 5'11, 221 FR 11 42 0 3.8 1.8 45.5% 0 (0)
DeAndre Thompkins WR 5'11, 185 FR 5 12 1 2.4 0.9 40.0% 4 (4)
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Passing
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Passing S&P+ 98.2 73 124.5 10 100.0
Passing Success Rate 35.0% 107 36.9% 31 40.3%
Passing IsoPPP 1.56 40 1.22 4 1.49
Adj. Sack Rate 72.3 111 197.1 1 100

Individual Passing Stats

Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Christian Hackenberg 6'4, 228 JR 192 359 2525 16 6 53.5% 38 9.6% 5.8
Trace McSorley 6'0, 196 FR 20 40 185 2 0 50.0% 1 2.4% 4.4

Individual Receiving Stats

Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate Success Rate Target
Rate
Chris Godwin WR 6'1, 208 SO 118 70 1103 5 15.8 9.4 59.3% 53.4% 29.9%
DaeSean Hamilton WR 6'1, 206 SO 89 45 585 6 13.0 6.6 50.6% 39.3% 22.6%
Geno Lewis WR 6'1, 205 JR 37 17 196 3 11.5 5.3 45.9% 35.1% 9.4%
Saquon Barkley RB 5'11, 222 FR 31 20 161 1 8.1 5.2 64.5% 29.0% 7.9%
Mike Gesicki TE 6'6, 255 SO 30 13 125 1 9.6 4.2 43.3% 26.7% 7.6%
Kyle Carter TE 6'3, 252 SR 24 14 135 0 9.6 5.6 58.3% 33.3% 6.1%
Saeed Blacknall WR 6'3, 211 SO 18 8 248 1 31.0 13.8 44.4% 33.3% 4.6%
Brandon Polk WR 5'9, 170 FR 8 6 57 1 9.5 7.1 75.0% 12.5% 2.0%
Mark Allen RB 5'6, 181 FR 8 4 44 1 11.0 5.5 50.0% 37.5% 2.0%
Brent Wilkerson TE 6'3, 250 JR 7 6 39 0 6.5 5.6 85.7% 57.1% 1.8%
Nick Scott RB 5'11, 198 FR 6 4 43 0 10.8 7.2 66.7% 33.3% 1.5%
DeAndre Thompkins WR 5'11, 185 FR 6 3 33 0 11.0 5.5 50.0% 16.7% 1.5%
Akeel Lynch RB 5'11, 220 JR 6 4 8 0 2.0 1.3 66.7% 0.0% 1.5%
Christian Hackenberg QB 6'4, 228 JR 1 1 14 1 14.0 14.0 100.0% 100.0% 0.3%
Gregg Garrity WR 5'10, 157 JR 1 1 4 0 4.0 4.0 100.0% 100.0% 0.3%
Brandon Bell LB 6'1, 231 JR 1 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
Standard Downs
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Standard Downs S&P+ 107.8 38 105.3 45 100.0
Standard Downs Success Rate 43.9% 104 46.3% 62 46.5%
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.20 24 1.01 25 1.11
SD Line Yards per Carry 2.75 88 2.73 41 2.90
SD Sack Rate 8.6% 117 6.0% 35 5.0%
Passing Downs
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Passing Downs S&P+ 89.4 96 135.2 6 100.0
Passing Downs Success Rate 23.2% 123 23.8% 8 30.7%
Passing Downs IsoPPP 2.03 12 1.69 44 1.77
PD Line Yards per Carry 2.64 109 3.25 69 3.20
PD Sack Rate 9.1% 92 13.9% 1 7.5%
Situational
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk
Q1 S&P+ 106.6 58 124.1 16
Q2 S&P+ 102.5 68 104.6 63
Q3 S&P+ 103.7 64 114.3 29
Q4 S&P+ 103.9 65 116.3 23
1st Down S&P+ 118.3 19 113.7 26
2nd Down S&P+ 87.0 105 114.5 27
3rd Down S&P+ 94.8 89 109.1 41
Offensive Footprint
Team Rk Nat'l Average
Std. Downs Run Rate 52.5% 103 60.4%
Pass Downs Run Rate 34.5% 55 34.0%
Adj. Pace -9.0 128 +0.0
% of Solo Tackles 76.3% 49 74.9%
Defensive Footprint
Team Rk Nat'l Average
Std. Downs Run Rate 63.2% 36 60.3%
Pass. Downs Run Rate 37.1% 35 33.9%
Overall Havoc Rate 20.1% 9 16.0%
DL Havoc Rate 9.7% 1 5.1%
LB Havoc Rate 4.8% 49 4.5%
DB Havoc Rate 5.6% 84 6.3%
PD to INC 32.7% 65 32.8%
Individual Defensive Stats
Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Jason Cabinda LB 6'1, 245 SO 69.5 9.9% 5.5 2.5 1 5 1 0
Marcus Allen S 6'2, 209 SO 62.0 8.8% 5.0 1.0 0 2 2 1
Troy Reeder LB 6'1, 241 FR 54.5 7.8% 5.5 0.0 1 1 0 0
Austin Johnson DT 6'4, 323 JR 54.0 7.7% 15.0 6.5 0 2 1 1
Brandon Bell LB 6'1, 231 JR 50.5 7.2% 12.5 5.5 1 0 3 0
Jordan Lucas S 6'0, 199 SR 45.0 6.4% 2.5 1.0 0 3 1 0
Carl Nassib DE 6'7, 272 SR 38.5 5.5% 19.5 15.5 1 1 6 0
Grant Haley CB 5'9, 189 SO 34.0 4.8% 1.5 0.0 2 7 1 0
Anthony Zettel DT 6'4, 284 SR 33.5 4.8% 11.0 4.0 0 6 1 0
Malik Golden S 6'0, 205 JR 28.5 4.1% 0.0 0.0 1 1 0 0
Trevor Williams CB 6'0, 200 SR 27.5 3.9% 3.0 0.0 1 3 0 0
Garrett Sickels DE 6'4, 258 SO 24.5 3.5% 5.5 3.0 0 1 1 1
John Reid CB 5'10, 186 FR 23.5 3.3% 1.0 0.0 2 3 1 1
Troy Apke S 6'1, 198 SO 20.0 2.8% 0.0 0.0 0 1 1 0
Manny Bowen LB 6'1, 200 FR 15.0 2.1% 0.5 0.0 0 0 1 0
Evan Schwan DE 6'6, 256 JR 14.5 2.1% 0.5 0.0 0 1 0 0
Jake Cooper LB 6'1, 226 FR 11.5 1.6% 2.5 1.0 0 1 0 0
Christian Campbell CB 6'1, 186 SO 11.0 1.6% 1.0 0.0 0 2 0 0
Curtis Cothran DE 6'5, 261 SO 10.5 1.5% 4.0 2.5 0 0 0 0
Parker Cothren DT 6'4, 302 SO 8.5 1.2% 0.5 0.5 0 1 0 0
Torrence Brown DE 6'3, 250 FR 8.0 1.1% 5.5 1.5 0 0 0 0
Antoine White DT 6'2, 292 FR 8.0 1.1% 1.5 1.0 0 0 0 0
Von Walker LB 5'11, 219 JR 8.0 1.1% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Jordan Dudas LB 6'0, 209 SR 6.5 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Nick Scott RB 5'11, 198 FR 6.5 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.
Special Teams

Rating Rank
Special Teams S&P+ -0.3 81
Category Rate Rank
FG Value (per kick) 0.25 37
Punt Success Rate 46.9% 110
Kickoff Success Rate 68.2% 77
Punt Return Success Rate 54.8% 47
Kick Return Success Rate 32.6% 110
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
Joey Julius 5'10, 259 FR 20-24 10-12 83.3%
Tyler Davis 5'11, 186 SO 11-11 8-8 100.0%
Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Daniel Pasquariello 6'1, 200 SO 58 39.9 3 10 11 36.2%
Chris Gulla 6'1, 199 SO 23 37.7 2 6 6 52.2%
Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
Joey Julius 5'10, 259 FR 53 62.0 22 41.5% 1 5 0 0
Tyler Davis 5'11, 186 SO 10 59.5 3 30.0% 0 1 0 0
Chris Gulla 6'1, 199 SO 3 50.0 0 0.0% 1 0 1 0
Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
DeAndre Thompkins 5'11, 185 FR 23 7.7 0 23 3 (3)
Mark Allen 5'6, 181 FR 5 6.6 0 0 0 (0)
Gregg Garrity 5'10, 157 JR 2 4.5 0 6 0 (0)
Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Koa Farmer 6'1, 222 FR 18 22.5 0 0 1 (1)
Nick Scott 5'11, 198 FR 13 23.8 0 0 1 (1)
Brandon Polk 5'9, 170 FR 10 20.9 0 0 0 (0)

Stats via SportSource Analytics