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2017 Air Force advanced statistical profile

Updated on 1/3/18

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2015 | 2016 | 2017

Air Force Falcons (MWC Mountain)

2017 Schedule & Results
Record: 5-7 | Second-order wins (diff.): 5.0 (0.0) | S&P+ Rk: 100
Date Opponent Opp. S&P+ Rk Score W-L Win
Expectancy
Adj. Scoring
Margin
Percentile
Performance
Off.
Percentile
Def.
Percentile
2-Sep VMI N/A 62-0 W 100% 49.0 93% 96% 99%
16-Sep at Michigan 27 13-29 L 2% -19.9 16% 7% 58%
23-Sep San Diego State 34 24-28 L 73% 5.7 65% 49% 67%
30-Sep at New Mexico 104 38-56 L 1% -23.0 11% 62% 5%
7-Oct at Navy 69 45-48 L 63% 3.0 57% 93% 7%
14-Oct UNLV 95 34-30 W 57% 1.5 54% 83% 25%
20-Oct at Nevada 108 45-42 W 90% 11.8 72% 91% 14%
28-Oct at Colorado State 45 45-28 W 82% 8.3 71% 75% 41%
4-Nov Army 59 0-21 L 0% -30.9 8% 3% NULL
11-Nov Wyoming 53 14-28 L 10% -11.9 26% 16% 48%
18-Nov at Boise State 23 19-44 L 18% -8.5 33% 51% 21%
25-Nov Utah State 57 38-35 W 10% -11.6 27% 54% 24%
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
S&P+ 29.5 54 35.2 118
Points Per Game 31.4 57 32.4 97
Five Factors
Offense Defense
Category Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
EFFICIENCY Success Rate 45.1% 26 42.1% 76 40.3%
EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP 1.01 122 1.46 130 1.17
FIELD POSITION Avg. FP 26.8 123 31.7 116 29.6
FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Trip in 40 5.46 2 5.34 128 4.42
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED -8.2 125 Turnover Luck (PPG):
-0.77
ACTUAL -10 118
Rushing
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Rushing S&P+ 108.2 50 98.5 69 100.0
Rushing Success Rate 46.6% 24 43.7% 85 42.2%
Rushing IsoPPP 0.82 96 1.22 130 0.92
Adj. Line Yards 104.5 47 98.2 68 100.0
Opportunity Rate 43.3% 15 37.2% 60 38.5%
Power Success Rate 77.8% 14 78.1% 117 67.7%
Stuff Rate 15.2% 13 18.6% 74 19.3%

Individual Rushing Stats

Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Fumbles
(Lost)
Arion Worthman QB 5'11, 205 JR 205 935 13 4.6 4.5 38.5% 15 (7)
Tim McVey RB 5'9, 190 SR 131 744 7 5.7 3.9 49.6% 4 (0)
Taven Birdow FB 6'1, 220 SO 88 384 5 4.4 1.7 40.9% 1 (1)
Jacob Stafford FB 6'0, 230 SR 68 398 1 5.9 5.5 38.2% 1 (0)
Ronald Cleveland WR 5'9, 174 JR 50 421 3 8.4 8.1 56.0% 3 (1)
Isaiah Sanders QB 6'2, 213 SO 48 225 3 4.7 1.9 45.8% 0 (0)
Parker Wilson RB 5'11, 230 JR 44 200 0 4.5 3.4 36.4% 0 (0)
Nolan Eriksen RB 5'9, 192 SO 40 228 1 5.7 4.0 45.0% 1 (1)
Nate Romine QB 5'11, 190 SR 17 120 1 7.1 8.3 52.9% 3 (2)
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Passing
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Passing S&P+ 98.9 73 88.1 109 100.0
Passing Success Rate 37.7% 99 39.2% 54 40.3%
Passing IsoPPP 2.16 3 1.94 130 1.48
Adj. Sack Rate 49.7 127 61.6 117 100

Individual Passing Stats

Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Arion Worthman 5'11, 205 JR 54 109 1100 10 4 49.5% 16 12.8% 7.9
Nate Romine 5'11, 190 SR 9 16 133 0 1 56.3% 4 20.0% 5.4
Isaiah Sanders 6'2, 213 SO 4 15 33 0 1 26.7% 2 11.8% 1.5

Individual Receiving Stats

Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate Success Rate Target
Rate
Marcus Bennett WR 6'0, 186 JR 35 19 398 3 21.0 11.4 54.3% 54.3% 25.5%
Ronald Cleveland WR 5'9, 174 JR 25 11 261 2 23.7 10.4 44.0% 40.0% 18.2%
Geraud Sanders WR 6'3, 210 SO 20 9 194 3 21.6 9.7 45.0% 40.0% 14.6%
Ryan Reffitt TE 6'5, 240 SR 16 8 173 2 21.6 10.8 50.0% 43.8% 11.7%
Tim McVey RB 5'9, 190 SR 15 6 136 0 22.7 9.1 40.0% 33.3% 10.9%
Kade Waguespack TE 6'2, 230 SO 4 2 35 0 17.5 8.8 50.0% 50.0% 2.9%
Nolan Eriksen RB 5'9, 192 SO 4 4 23 0 5.8 5.8 100.0% 75.0% 2.9%
Jake Matkovich WR 6'5, 195 JR 4 1 18 0 18.0 4.5 25.0% 25.0% 2.9%
Jacob Stafford FB 6'0, 230 SR 3 3 33 0 11.0 11.0 100.0% 66.7% 2.2%
Garrett Amy WR 5'8, 185 JR 2 1 10 0 10.0 5.0 50.0% 50.0% 1.5%
Ja'Mel Sanders LB 6'1, 205 SR 2 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0% 1.5%
Arion Worthman QB 5'11, 205 JR 1 1 24 0 24.0 24.0 100.0% 100.0% 0.7%
Adam Farah WR 6'1, 185 SO 1 1 8 0 8.0 8.0 100.0% 0.0% 0.7%
Andrew Smith WR 5'8, 165 JR 1 1 6 0 6.0 6.0 100.0% 100.0% 0.7%
Tyler Williams WR 5'10, 185 SR 1 1 2 0 2.0 2.0 100.0% 0.0% 0.7%
Taven Birdow FB 6'1, 220 SO 1 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.7%
Standard Downs
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Standard Downs S&P+ 102.1 60 94.8 95 100.0
Standard Downs Success Rate 50.3% 25 48.4% 92 46.5%
Standard Downs IsoPPP 0.89 124 1.36 129 1.07
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.23 24 3.25 108 2.92
SD Sack Rate 11.4% 129 4.3% 81 5.3%
Passing Downs
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Passing Downs S&P+ 107.6 50 95.1 86 100.0
Passing Downs Success Rate 30.9% 65 28.5% 42 30.7%
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.56 51 1.85 129 1.53
PD Line Yards per Carry 2.49 120 3.19 71 3.22
PD Sack Rate 14.7% 124 3.6% 124 7.8%
Situational
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk
Q1 S&P+ 98.8 74 79.0 125
Q2 S&P+ 100.3 75 99.5 71
Q3 S&P+ 105.8 56 89.3 101
Q4 S&P+ 114.5 21 84.9 123
1st Down S&P+ 97.2 74 82.7 124
2nd Down S&P+ 105.9 50 94.5 91
3rd Down S&P+ 112.1 39 89.2 104
Offensive Footprint
Team Rk Nat'l Average
Std. Downs Run Rate 88.2% 4 60.0%
Pass Downs Run Rate 69.1% 3 35.3%
Adj. Pace -4.1 5 +0.0
% of Solo Tackles 64.7% 123 73.8%
Defensive Footprint
Team Rk Nat'l Average
Std. Downs Run Rate 73.0% 1 59.9%
Pass. Downs Run Rate 44.5% 5 35.0%
Overall Havoc Rate 12.2% 121 16.0%
DL Havoc Rate 2.6% 118 4.9%
LB Havoc Rate 5.5% 33 4.4%
DB Havoc Rate 4.0% 127 6.5%
PD to INC 28.7% 115 33.9%
Individual Defensive Stats
Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles TFL (Sacks) Run Stuffs* Int (PBU) FF Succ. Rate**
Jack Flor LB 6'2, 225 SR 72.5 3 (3) 9 0 (1) 1 41.3%
Grant Ross LB 6'1, 225 SR 69.5 9.5 (1) 20 0 (1) 4 40.2%
Marquis Griffin DB 5'11, 195 SR 54.0 4.5 (0) 9 0 (6) 0 60.0%
Kyle Floyd DB 6'2, 210 JR 43.0 0 (0) 5 1 (7) 0 48.3%
James Jones DB 6'2, 171 SO 36.5 0 (0) 1 1 (1) 0 72.0%
Lakota Wills LB 6'3, 220 FR 34.5 6 (2) 11 1 (0) 0 27.3%
Jeremy Fejedelem DB 5'10, 190 SO 28.5 1 (0) 2 0 (4) 0 62.1%
Santo Coppola DL 6'4, 270 SR 28.0 3.5 (1) 6 0 (1) 0 28.2%
Shaquille Vereen LB 5'9, 186 SR 27.5 3 (0) 7 1 (1) 0 30.6%
Micah Capra DL 6'2, 270 JR 21.0 2 (0) 11 0 (0) 0 15.6%
Ja'Mel Sanders LB 6'1, 205 SR 18.5 1.5 (0) 2 0 (1) 0 57.1%
Mosese Fifita DL 6'1, 320 SO 13.5 3 (1) 3 0 (0) 1 20.0%
Garrett Kauppila DB 6'2, 200 JR 13.0 1.5 (0) 2 0 (0) 1 20.0%
Cody Gessler DL 5'11, 263 JR 12.0 2.5 (1) 3 0 (0) 0 25.0%
Robert Bullard DB 5'9, 180 JR 8.5 0 (0) 0 0 (0) 0 50.0%
Brett Baldwin DB 6'0, 175 SR 7.0 0 (0) 0 0 (0) 0 83.3%
Jordan Jackson DT 6'5, 260 FR 6.5 0 (0) 0 0 (1) 0 28.6%
Brody Bagnall LB 6'2, 230 JR 5.0 0 (0) 0 0 (0) 0 50.0%
Zane Lewis DB 6'1, 186 SO 4.5 0 (0) 0 0 (0) 0 50.0%
Arion Worthman QB 5'11, 205 JR 4.0 0 (0) 0 0 (0) 0 66.7%
Malik Dawkins DB 6'0, 177 SO 3.5 0 (0) 0 0 (0) 0 0.0%
Kyle Johnson LB 6'0, 221 SO 3.5 0 (0) 0 0 (0) 0 50.0%
Abraham Nuno LB 6'0, 210 JR 3.0 0 (0) 0 0 (0) 0 0.0%
Ryan Darby DL 6'3, 245 JR 2.5 1 (0) 1 0 (1) 0 0.0%
Dailen Sutton DB 6'1, 181 JR 2.5 0 (0) 0 0 (0) 0 0.0%

* Stuffs are rushes stopped at or behind the line. They are not necessarily tackles for loss (since they include zero-yard gains), so adding sacks and stuffs won't necessarily equal TFLs. Also: the figure is based on how many stuffs a tackler has taken part in -- solo tackles and assist tackles count for the same amount.

** For defenders, Success Rate is defined as the offense's success rate on plays in which the defender made a tackle. The lower the number, the better for the defender. On average, due to proximity to the line of scrimmage, defensive linemen will produce lower success rates than linebackers, who producer lower rates than defensive backs.

Special Teams

Rating Rank
Special Teams S&P+ 0.3 43
Category Rate Rank
FG Value (per kick) 0.28 23
Punt Success Rate 61.0% 48
Kickoff Success Rate 74.6% 60
Punt Return Success Rate 40.0% 86
Kick Return Success Rate 23.1% 127
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
Luke Strebel 5'10, 175 SR 43-43 9-12 75.0%
Matthew Philichi 5'9, 180 JR 2-2 1-1 100.0%
Noah Crabbe , 0 0-1 0-0 #DIV/0!
Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Charlie Scott 6'1, 192 SO 41 42.1 0 12 13 61.0%
Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
Luke Strebel 5'10, 175 SR 54 60.8 29 53.7% 0 2 1 1
Matthew Philichi 5'9, 180 JR 11 62.5 4 36.4% 0 1 1 0
Noah Crabbe , 0 1 65.0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0
Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Ronald Cleveland 5'9, 174 JR 9 5.8 0 15 0 (0)
Garrett Kauppila 6'2, 200 JR 1 10.0 0 0 0 (0)
Lesley Dalger 6'4, 225 SO 0 0.0 0 0 1 (0)
Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Tim McVey 5'9, 190 SR 21 18.6 0 0 0 (0)
Malik Miller 5'10, 200 JR 2 13.0 0 0 1 (1)
Garrett Amy 5'8, 185 JR 2 10.5 0 0 0 (0)
Tackler Pos Ht, Wt Year ST Tackles PR Avg KR Avg
Jeremy Fejedelem DB 5'10, 190 SO 4.0 20.0
Zane Lewis DB 6'1, 186 SO 3.5 22.3
Malik Dawkins DB 6'0, 177 SO 3.0 20.7
Lakota Wills LB 6'3, 220 FR 2.5 15.0
Abraham Nuno LB 6'0, 210 JR 2.5 17.3

Stats via SportSource Analytics