Study Hall: Baylor 28, Texas 7

Baylor 28, Texas 7

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Basics	Baylor	Texas	Nat'l Avg
Total Plays	82	74
Close Rate (non-garbage time)	80.1%
Avg Starting FP	31.8	23.2	29.7
Possessions	13	13
Scoring Opportunities*	6	4
Points Per Opportunity	3.50	1.75	4.69
Leverage Rate**	59.8%	51.4%	68.4%
Close S&P;***	0.472	0.423	0.508
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) * When using IsoPPP, the S&P; formula is (0.8Success Rate) + (0.2IsoPPP)

EqPts (what's this?)	Baylor	Texas
Total	24.4	16.1
Rushing	15.6	10.7
Passing	8.9	5.4

Success Rate (what's this?)	Baylor	Texas	Nat'l Avg
All (close)	42.7%	40.4%	42.2%
Rushing (close)	54.4%	48.3%	43.6%
Passing (close)	18.2%	32.1%	40.7%
Standard Downs	44.9%	47.4%	47.5%
Passing Downs	36.8%	26.3%	30.7%

IsoPPP (what's this?)	Baylor	Texas	Nat'l Avg
All (close)	0.65	0.50	0.85
Rushing (close)	0.55	0.51	0.73
Passing (close)	1.31	0.48	0.99
Standard Downs	0.67	0.54	0.77
Passing Downs	0.61	0.35	1.14

Line Stats	Baylor	Texas	Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?)	4.21	3.25	2.93
Std. Downs Sack Rt.	18.8%	0.0%	4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt.	0.0%	7.1%	7.3%

Turnovers	Baylor	Texas
Turnovers	0	3
Turnover Points (what's this?)	0.0	15.6
Turnover Margin	Baylor +3
Exp. TO Margin	Baylor +1.83
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin)	Baylor +1.17
TO Points Margin	Baylor +15.6 points

Situational	Baylor	Texas
Q1 S&P;	0.231	0.384
Q2 S&P;	0.495	0.590
Q3 S&P;	0.507	0.347
Q4 S&P;	0.572	0.414
1st Down S&P;	0.445	0.522
2nd Down S&P;	0.510	0.360
3rd Down S&P;	0.398	0.368

Projected Scoring Margin: Baylor by 23.9
Actual Scoring Margin: Baylor by 21

This was a "see what you want to see" game. Those who believe Baylor can become/remain a legitimate power will note that Baylor shut down another offense and was able to win comfortably on the road when the offense wasn't clicking. Those who believe Baylor isn't and will never be an elite power will point out that Texas slowed the offense down, and they were lucky UT's offense stinks.

Here's where stats can come in handy. Baylor ranked ninth in F/+ before the game and ranks ninth after it. And while the final margin was aided by turnovers, Baylor was still the superior team. Texas ganed up on the pass, and it worked, so Baylor simply rushed Linwood and Jefferson 39 times for 220 yards.