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Okay, fine, so the pace adjustments aren't going to hit at 60% every week...
| Week 7 | 2014 Season | |
| "NEW" Method | 24-24-2 (52%) | 186-192-7 (49%) |
| "OLD" Method | 23-25-2 (48%) | 164-169-6 (49%) |
| When Both Methods Agree | 22-23-2 (49%) | 112-117-4 (49%) |
| "NEW" Method w/Pace Adjustment | 57-47-3 (55%) |
The MAC ruined the fun this week -- F/+ picks were 1-5 in MAC contests and 23-19-2 (55%) otherwise.
Meanwhile, the coinflip games have now skewed slightly in favor of the underdog, but since anything with a win probability under 60% really is basically a coinflip (it means a tiny, tiny difference between two teams' F/+ ratings), I won't worry too much about that. If the 50-60% teams have a good week and the 70-80% teams have a bad week, we might finally have everybody in the right range (50-60s between 50-60, et al).
| Week 7 | 2014 Season | |
| Teams with 50-60% chance of winning | 1-6 (14%) | 18-19 (49%) |
| Teams with 60-70% chance of winning | 12-7 (63%) | 66-40 (62%) |
| Teams with 70-80% chance of winning | 7-3 (70%) | 91-22 (81%) |
| Teams with 80-90% chance of winning | 11-2 (85%) | 88-15 (85%) |
| Teams with 90-100% chance of winning | 5-0 (100%) | 68-2 (97%) |
FBS vs. FBS
I don't feel like creating a table for the lone FBS vs. FCS game, so I'll just mention here that the projected score for Furman at South Carolina (12 pm ET, SEC Network) is 'Cocks 61.7, Paladins 19.5.
And I was disappointed to see that the projected score of Florida-Mizzou wasn't 3-(-2).
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | NEW Prediction | Chance of winning | NEW Pick | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Different? |
| Thu | 7:30 PM | ESPN | Virginia Tech at Pittsburgh | -1 | Virginia Tech by 6.9 (29.4 - 22.5) | 65.1% | Virginia Tech | Virginia Tech by 3.7 | Virginia Tech | |
| Thu | 10:00 PM | Pac-12 | Utah at Oregon State | 3 | Utah by 16.8 (28.5 - 11.7) | 77.5% | Utah | Utah by 9.9 | Utah | |
| Fri | 8:00 PM | ESPN | Fresno State at Boise State | -17 | Boise State by 56.6 (56.8 - 0.3) | 98.1% | Boise State | Boise State by 31.0 | Boise State | |
| Fri | 9:00 PM | ESPNU | Temple at Houston | -7.5 | Houston by 10.9 (23.5 - 12.6) | 71.0% | Houston | Houston by 7.1 | Temple | XXX |
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | NEW Prediction | Chance of winning | NEW Pick | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Different? |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | FS1 | Baylor at West Virginia | 8.5 | Baylor by 30.5 (59.0 - 28.5) | 85.0% | Baylor | Baylor by 14.6 | Baylor | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN2 | Iowa at Maryland | -4.5 | Maryland by 9.5 (19.3 - 9.7) | 69.3% | Maryland | Maryland by 6.3 | Maryland | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN | Kansas State at Oklahoma | -7.5 | Oklahoma by 27.5 (36.9 - 9.3) | 87.4% | Oklahoma | Oklahoma by 17.0 | Oklahoma | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | BTN | Purdue at Minnesota | -13 | Minnesota by 26.3 (35.3 - 9.0) | 87.9% | Minnesota | Minnesota by 17.4 | Minnesota | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN News | South Florida at Tulsa | 2 | Tulsa by 10.7 (37.1 - 26.5) | 70.6% | Tulsa | Tulsa by 6.9 | Tulsa | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN3 | Syracuse at Wake Forest | 5 | Syracuse by 0.3 (12.3 - 12.0) | 56.2% | Wake Forest | Wake Forest by 0.1 | Wake Forest | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPNU | Tulane at Central Florida | -19.5 | Central Florida by 33.1 (42.6 - 9.5) | 93.7% | Central Florida | Central Florida by 23.0 | Central Florida | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | FSN affiliates | UTSA at Louisiana Tech | -12.5 | UTSA by 1.5 (20.6 - 19.1) | 58.0% | UTSA | UTSA by 0.6 | UTSA | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ASN | Western Kentucky at Florida Atlantic | 6.5 | Western Kentucky by 17.5 (51.0 - 33.6) | 77.9% | Western Kentucky | Western Kentucky by 10.1 | Western Kentucky | |
| Sat | 12:30 PM | ESPN3 | Virginia at Duke | -3 | Virginia by 0.4 (18.5 - 18.1) | 56.2% | Virginia | Duke by 0.1 | Virginia | |
| Sat | 2:00 PM | ESPN3 | Akron at Ohio | 3 | Akron by 27.0 (36.0 - 9.0) | 88.7% | Akron | Akron by 17.4 | Akron | |
| Sat | 2:00 PM | ESPN3 | Western Michigan at Bowling Green | -1 | Western Michigan by 26.7 (44.5 - 17.9) | 85.6% | Western Michigan | Western Michigan by 15.0 | Western Michigan | |
| Sat | 3:00 PM | ESPN3 | Appalachian State at Troy | -7 | Troy by 24.5 (50.7 - 26.3) | 85.6% | Troy | Troy by 15.7 | Troy | |
| Sat | 3:00 PM | ESPN3 | Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts | -16 | Massachusetts by 22.6 (32.8 - 10.3) | 84.6% | Massachusetts | Massachusetts by 15.0 | Eastern Michigan | XXX |
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | NEW Prediction | Chance of winning | NEW Pick | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Different? |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Army at Kent State | 4 | Army by 1.2 (24.4 - 23.2) | 57.6% | Kent State | Army by 0.4 | Kent State | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Ball State at Central Michigan | -8 | Central Michigan by 10.5 (35.3 - 24.7) | 71.4% | Central Michigan | Central Michigan by 7.3 | Ball State | XXX |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | CBSSN | Cincinnati at SMU | 14 | Cincinnati by 26.2 (40.8 - 14.6) | 88.5% | Cincinnati | Cincinnati by 17.3 | Cincinnati | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPNU | Clemson at Boston College | 5 | Clemson by 11.6 (30.0 - 18.4) | 70.2% | Clemson | Clemson by 6.0 | Clemson | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | FSN affiliates | Kansas at Texas Tech | -14 | Texas Tech by 25.7 (39.7 - 14.0) | 85.8% | Texas Tech | Texas Tech by 15.9 | Texas Tech | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN | Michigan State at Indiana | 14.5 | Michigan State by 44.4 (69.4 - 25.0) | 94.8% | Michigan State | Michigan State by 23.7 | Michigan State | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | NC State at Louisville | -17 | Louisville by 47.4 (42.6 - -4.8) | 97.4% | Louisville | Louisville by 28.8 | Louisville | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | RSNW | New Mexico at Air Force | -10 | Air Force by 33.1 (46.6 - 13.6) | 91.0% | Air Force | Air Force by 20.1 | Air Force | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ABC/ESPN2 | Rutgers at Ohio State | -19.5 | Ohio State by 12.0 (36.5 - 24.5) | 71.9% | Rutgers | Ohio State by 7.6 | Rutgers | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | CBS | Texas A&M at Alabama | -11 | Alabama by 26.3 (47.8 - 21.5) | 84.9% | Alabama | Alabama by 15.2 | Alabama | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | FCSA | UAB at Middle Tennessee | 1.5 | UAB by 9.4 (40.6 - 31.2) | 67.4% | UAB | UAB by 4.7 | UAB | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ABC/ESPN2 | UCLA at California | 7 | UCLA by 11.7 (50.5 - 38.8) | 71.4% | UCLA | UCLA by 6.6 | California | XXX |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | SECN | Georgia at Arkansas | 3.5 | Georgia by 18.1 (41.5 - 23.3) | 80.4% | Georgia | Georgia by 11.6 | Georgia | |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | FS1 | Oklahoma State at TCU | -9 | TCU by 30.1 (45.6 - 15.6) | 87.2% | TCU | TCU by 16.9 | TCU | |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | ESPN3 | San Jose State at Wyoming | 2 | San Jose State by 1.2 (22.2 - 21.0) | 57.5% | Wyoming | San Jose State by 0.4 | Wyoming | |
| Sat | 5:00 PM | ESPN3 | Miami-OH at Northern Illinois | -11 | Northern Illinois by 3.9 (34.0 - 30.1) | 61.2% | Miami-OH | Northern Illinois by 2.6 | Miami-OH | |
| Sat | 5:00 PM | ESPN3 | New Mexico State at Idaho | -4 | Idaho by 9.4 (54.9 - 45.5) | 67.5% | Idaho | Idaho by 5.4 | Idaho | |
| Sat | 6:00 PM | Pac-12 | Colorado at USC | -19.5 | USC by 47.5 (71.8 - 24.3) | 94.9% | USC | USC by 24.5 | USC | |
| Sat | 6:00 PM | $CSLive | Marshall at Florida International | 22 | Marshall by 33.4 (31.3 - -2.1) | 91.7% | Marshall | Marshall by 20.1 | Florida International | XXX |
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | NEW Prediction | Chance of winning | NEW Pick | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Different? |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPNU | Georgia Tech at North Carolina | 3 | Georgia Tech by 34.7 (68.4 - 33.7) | 92.1% | Georgia Tech | Georgia Tech by 20.5 | Georgia Tech | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN2 | Missouri at Florida | -6 | Florida by 7.0 (19.4 - 12.5) | 65.4% | Florida | Florida by 4.5 | Missouri | XXX |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ASN | Southern Miss at North Texas | -10 | North Texas by 0.6 (20.2 - 19.7) | 56.6% | Southern Miss | North Texas by 0.7 | Southern Miss | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN | Tennessee at Ole Miss | -16 | Ole Miss by 41.1 (37.9 - -3.2) | 94.7% | Ole Miss | Ole Miss by 24.2 | Ole Miss | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | CBSSN | Utah State at Colorado State | -5.5 | Colorado State by 21.0 (38.6 - 17.6) | 82.6% | Colorado State | Colorado State by 13.6 | Colorado State | |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | ESPN3 | Georgia State at South Alabama | -17 | South Alabama by 15.8 (39.1 - 23.3) | 76.1% | Georgia State | South Alabama by 9.8 | Georgia State | |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | SECN | Kentucky at LSU | -9 | LSU by 22.0 (34.8 - 12.8) | 82.6% | LSU | LSU by 13.6 | LSU | |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | BTN | Nebraska at Northwestern | 7 | Nebraska by 17.9 (34.8 - 16.9) | 77.4% | Nebraska | Nebraska by 9.8 | Nebraska | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | LHN | Iowa State at Texas | -13 | Texas by 2.4 (27.0 - 24.6) | 59.5% | Iowa State | Texas by 1.9 | Iowa State | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | ABC | Notre Dame at Florida State | -11.5 | Florida State by 4.7 (29.4 - 24.7) | 62.9% | Notre Dame | Florida State by 3.3 | Notre Dame | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | FS1 | Washington at Oregon | -21 | Oregon by 37.9 (45.8 - 7.9) | 93.9% | Oregon | Oregon by 23.2 | Oregon | |
| Sat | 10:15 PM | ESPN2 | Nevada at BYU | -10 | BYU by 27.3 (55.5 - 28.2) | 85.5% | BYU | BYU by 15.7 | BYU | |
| Sat | 10:30 PM | CBSSN | Hawaii at San Diego State | -8 | Hawaii by 3.9 (18.5 - 14.6) | 61.2% | Hawaii | Hawaii by 1.9 | Hawaii | |
| Sat | 10:30 PM | ESPN | Stanford at Arizona State | 3 | Stanford by 10.1 (23.3 - 13.2) | 70.0% | Stanford | Stanford by 6.0 | Stanford |
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