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College football projections: Week 8 F/+ picks

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Justin K. Aller

Okay, fine, so the pace adjustments aren't going to hit at 60% every week...

Week 7 2014 Season
"NEW" Method 24-24-2 (52%) 186-192-7 (49%)
"OLD" Method 23-25-2 (48%) 164-169-6 (49%)
When Both Methods Agree 22-23-2 (49%) 112-117-4 (49%)
"NEW" Method w/Pace Adjustment
57-47-3 (55%)

The MAC ruined the fun this week -- F/+ picks were 1-5 in MAC contests and 23-19-2 (55%) otherwise.

Meanwhile, the coinflip games have now skewed slightly in favor of the underdog, but since anything with a win probability under 60% really is basically a coinflip (it means a tiny, tiny difference between two teams' F/+ ratings), I won't worry too much about that. If the 50-60% teams have a good week and the 70-80% teams have a bad week, we might finally have everybody in the right range (50-60s between 50-60, et al).

Week 7 2014 Season
Teams with 50-60% chance of winning 1-6 (14%) 18-19 (49%)
Teams with 60-70% chance of winning 12-7 (63%) 66-40 (62%)
Teams with 70-80% chance of winning 7-3 (70%) 91-22 (81%)
Teams with 80-90% chance of winning 11-2 (85%) 88-15 (85%)
Teams with 90-100% chance of winning 5-0 (100%) 68-2 (97%)

FBS vs. FBS

I don't feel like creating a table for the lone FBS vs. FCS game, so I'll just mention here that the projected score for Furman at South Carolina (12 pm ET, SEC Network) is 'Cocks 61.7, Paladins 19.5.

And I was disappointed to see that the projected score of Florida-Mizzou wasn't 3-(-2).

Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread NEW Prediction Chance of winning NEW Pick OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Tue 8:00 PM ESPN2 UL-Lafayette at Texas State -2.5 Texas State by 7.3 (39.2 - 31.9) 65.8% Texas State Texas State by 4.6 Texas State
Thu 7:30 PM ESPN Virginia Tech at Pittsburgh -1 Virginia Tech by 6.9 (29.4 - 22.5) 65.1% Virginia Tech Virginia Tech by 3.7 Virginia Tech
Thu 10:00 PM Pac-12 Utah at Oregon State 3 Utah by 16.8 (28.5 - 11.7) 77.5% Utah Utah by 9.9 Utah
Fri 8:00 PM ESPN Fresno State at Boise State -17 Boise State by 56.6 (56.8 - 0.3) 98.1% Boise State Boise State by 31.0 Boise State
Fri 9:00 PM ESPNU Temple at Houston -7.5 Houston by 10.9 (23.5 - 12.6) 71.0% Houston Houston by 7.1 Temple XXX
Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread NEW Prediction Chance of winning NEW Pick OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Sat 12:00 PM FS1 Baylor at West Virginia 8.5 Baylor by 30.5 (59.0 - 28.5) 85.0% Baylor Baylor by 14.6 Baylor
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN2 Iowa at Maryland -4.5 Maryland by 9.5 (19.3 - 9.7) 69.3% Maryland Maryland by 6.3 Maryland
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN Kansas State at Oklahoma -7.5 Oklahoma by 27.5 (36.9 - 9.3) 87.4% Oklahoma Oklahoma by 17.0 Oklahoma
Sat 12:00 PM BTN Purdue at Minnesota -13 Minnesota by 26.3 (35.3 - 9.0) 87.9% Minnesota Minnesota by 17.4 Minnesota
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN News South Florida at Tulsa 2 Tulsa by 10.7 (37.1 - 26.5) 70.6% Tulsa Tulsa by 6.9 Tulsa
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN3 Syracuse at Wake Forest 5 Syracuse by 0.3 (12.3 - 12.0) 56.2% Wake Forest Wake Forest by 0.1 Wake Forest
Sat 12:00 PM ESPNU Tulane at Central Florida -19.5 Central Florida by 33.1 (42.6 - 9.5) 93.7% Central Florida Central Florida by 23.0 Central Florida
Sat 12:00 PM FSN affiliates UTSA at Louisiana Tech -12.5 UTSA by 1.5 (20.6 - 19.1) 58.0% UTSA UTSA by 0.6 UTSA
Sat 12:00 PM ASN Western Kentucky at Florida Atlantic 6.5 Western Kentucky by 17.5 (51.0 - 33.6) 77.9% Western Kentucky Western Kentucky by 10.1 Western Kentucky
Sat 12:30 PM ESPN3 Virginia at Duke -3 Virginia by 0.4 (18.5 - 18.1) 56.2% Virginia Duke by 0.1 Virginia
Sat 2:00 PM ESPN3 Akron at Ohio 3 Akron by 27.0 (36.0 - 9.0) 88.7% Akron Akron by 17.4 Akron
Sat 2:00 PM ESPN3 Western Michigan at Bowling Green -1 Western Michigan by 26.7 (44.5 - 17.9) 85.6% Western Michigan Western Michigan by 15.0 Western Michigan
Sat 3:00 PM ESPN3 Appalachian State at Troy -7 Troy by 24.5 (50.7 - 26.3) 85.6% Troy Troy by 15.7 Troy
Sat 3:00 PM ESPN3 Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts -16 Massachusetts by 22.6 (32.8 - 10.3) 84.6% Massachusetts Massachusetts by 15.0 Eastern Michigan XXX
Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread NEW Prediction Chance of winning NEW Pick OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN3 Army at Kent State 4 Army by 1.2 (24.4 - 23.2) 57.6% Kent State Army by 0.4 Kent State
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN3 Ball State at Central Michigan -8 Central Michigan by 10.5 (35.3 - 24.7) 71.4% Central Michigan Central Michigan by 7.3 Ball State XXX
Sat 3:30 PM CBSSN Cincinnati at SMU 14 Cincinnati by 26.2 (40.8 - 14.6) 88.5% Cincinnati Cincinnati by 17.3 Cincinnati
Sat 3:30 PM ESPNU Clemson at Boston College 5 Clemson by 11.6 (30.0 - 18.4) 70.2% Clemson Clemson by 6.0 Clemson
Sat 3:30 PM FSN affiliates Kansas at Texas Tech -14 Texas Tech by 25.7 (39.7 - 14.0) 85.8% Texas Tech Texas Tech by 15.9 Texas Tech
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN Michigan State at Indiana 14.5 Michigan State by 44.4 (69.4 - 25.0) 94.8% Michigan State Michigan State by 23.7 Michigan State
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN3 NC State at Louisville -17 Louisville by 47.4 (42.6 - -4.8) 97.4% Louisville Louisville by 28.8 Louisville
Sat 3:30 PM RSNW New Mexico at Air Force -10 Air Force by 33.1 (46.6 - 13.6) 91.0% Air Force Air Force by 20.1 Air Force
Sat 3:30 PM ABC/ESPN2 Rutgers at Ohio State -19.5 Ohio State by 12.0 (36.5 - 24.5) 71.9% Rutgers Ohio State by 7.6 Rutgers
Sat 3:30 PM CBS Texas A&M at Alabama -11 Alabama by 26.3 (47.8 - 21.5) 84.9% Alabama Alabama by 15.2 Alabama
Sat 3:30 PM FCSA UAB at Middle Tennessee 1.5 UAB by 9.4 (40.6 - 31.2) 67.4% UAB UAB by 4.7 UAB
Sat 3:30 PM ABC/ESPN2 UCLA at California 7 UCLA by 11.7 (50.5 - 38.8) 71.4% UCLA UCLA by 6.6 California XXX
Sat 4:00 PM SECN Georgia at Arkansas 3.5 Georgia by 18.1 (41.5 - 23.3) 80.4% Georgia Georgia by 11.6 Georgia
Sat 4:00 PM FS1 Oklahoma State at TCU -9 TCU by 30.1 (45.6 - 15.6) 87.2% TCU TCU by 16.9 TCU
Sat 4:00 PM ESPN3 San Jose State at Wyoming 2 San Jose State by 1.2 (22.2 - 21.0) 57.5% Wyoming San Jose State by 0.4 Wyoming
Sat 5:00 PM ESPN3 Miami-OH at Northern Illinois -11 Northern Illinois by 3.9 (34.0 - 30.1) 61.2% Miami-OH Northern Illinois by 2.6 Miami-OH
Sat 5:00 PM ESPN3 New Mexico State at Idaho -4 Idaho by 9.4 (54.9 - 45.5) 67.5% Idaho Idaho by 5.4 Idaho
Sat 6:00 PM Pac-12 Colorado at USC -19.5 USC by 47.5 (71.8 - 24.3) 94.9% USC USC by 24.5 USC
Sat 6:00 PM $CSLive Marshall at Florida International 22 Marshall by 33.4 (31.3 - -2.1) 91.7% Marshall Marshall by 20.1 Florida International XXX
Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread NEW Prediction Chance of winning NEW Pick OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Sat 7:00 PM ESPNU Georgia Tech at North Carolina 3 Georgia Tech by 34.7 (68.4 - 33.7) 92.1% Georgia Tech Georgia Tech by 20.5 Georgia Tech
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN2 Missouri at Florida -6 Florida by 7.0 (19.4 - 12.5) 65.4% Florida Florida by 4.5 Missouri XXX
Sat 7:00 PM ASN Southern Miss at North Texas -10 North Texas by 0.6 (20.2 - 19.7) 56.6% Southern Miss North Texas by 0.7 Southern Miss
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN Tennessee at Ole Miss -16 Ole Miss by 41.1 (37.9 - -3.2) 94.7% Ole Miss Ole Miss by 24.2 Ole Miss
Sat 7:00 PM CBSSN Utah State at Colorado State -5.5 Colorado State by 21.0 (38.6 - 17.6) 82.6% Colorado State Colorado State by 13.6 Colorado State
Sat 7:30 PM ESPN3 Georgia State at South Alabama -17 South Alabama by 15.8 (39.1 - 23.3) 76.1% Georgia State South Alabama by 9.8 Georgia State
Sat 7:30 PM SECN Kentucky at LSU -9 LSU by 22.0 (34.8 - 12.8) 82.6% LSU LSU by 13.6 LSU
Sat 7:30 PM BTN Nebraska at Northwestern 7 Nebraska by 17.9 (34.8 - 16.9) 77.4% Nebraska Nebraska by 9.8 Nebraska
Sat 8:00 PM LHN Iowa State at Texas -13 Texas by 2.4 (27.0 - 24.6) 59.5% Iowa State Texas by 1.9 Iowa State
Sat 8:00 PM ABC Notre Dame at Florida State -11.5 Florida State by 4.7 (29.4 - 24.7) 62.9% Notre Dame Florida State by 3.3 Notre Dame
Sat 8:00 PM FS1 Washington at Oregon -21 Oregon by 37.9 (45.8 - 7.9) 93.9% Oregon Oregon by 23.2 Oregon
Sat 10:15 PM ESPN2 Nevada at BYU -10 BYU by 27.3 (55.5 - 28.2) 85.5% BYU BYU by 15.7 BYU
Sat 10:30 PM CBSSN Hawaii at San Diego State -8 Hawaii by 3.9 (18.5 - 14.6) 61.2% Hawaii Hawaii by 1.9 Hawaii
Sat 10:30 PM ESPN Stanford at Arizona State 3 Stanford by 10.1 (23.3 - 13.2) 70.0% Stanford Stanford by 6.0 Stanford