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Updated Pac-12 projections through 8 weeks

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Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Win projections

I didn't get a chance to update the Pac-12 numbers last week, but if you're looking for a comparison point, here's my post from two weeks ago. Basically, Oregon's gone from slight North favorite to overwhelming North favorite, and the South picture is only slightly clearer than it was on October 8.

Odds of Pac-12 conference records
North F/+ Ranking Proj. Conf. Wins 2 Weeks Ago (Change) With Week 9 win With Week 9 loss
Oregon (3-1, 6-1) 7 7.40 6.05 (+1.35) 7.53 6.53
Stanford (2-2, 4-3) 28 4.60 5.66 (-1.06) 4.71 3.71
California (2-3, 4-3) 43 3.23 4.84 (-1.61) 4.11 3.11
Washington (1-2, 5-2) 62 2.91 2.52 (+0.39) 3.80 2.80
Oregon State (1-2, 4-2) 56 2.73 3.12 (-0.39) 3.62 2.62
Washington State (1-3, 2-5) 61 2.34 3.76 (-1.42) 3.15 2.15
South F/+ Ranking Proj. Conf. Wins 2 Weeks Ago (Change) With Week 9 win With Week 9 loss
Arizona State (3-1, 5-1) 13 7.13 5.10 (+2.03) 7.23 6.23
USC (4-1, 5-2) 21 6.57 5.12 (+1.45) 7.00 6.00
UCLA (2-2, 5-2) 12 6.09 5.77 (+0.32) 6.13 5.13
Arizona (2-1, 5-1) 29 5.65 6.55 (-0.90) 5.84 4.84
Utah (2-1, 5-1) 31 4.78 4.31 (+0.47) 5.35 4.35
Colorado (0-4, 2-5) 80 0.57 1.21 (-0.64) 1.53 0.53

NORTH
Major contenders: Oregon
Minor contenders: none

If you want any hope of a North race, instead of an Oregon coronation run, you need Cal to upset the Ducks on Friday night. The odds of that aren't good (about 13%), but without it, Oregon basically has at least one freebie. Lose to Stanford? No matter! You're still in the driver's seat because Stanford's probably going to lose again.

(This only applies to the conference title race, obviously. Another loss would be death for Oregon's national title hopes.)

SOUTH
Serious contenders: Arizona State, USC
Minor contenders: UCLA, Arizona

Following a dominating performance over Stanford, Arizona State not only has two straight impressive wins following its blowout loss to UCLA ... the Sun Devils also hold a tie-breaker advantage over USC thanks to the Hail Mary in the Coliseum. Meanwhile, Arizona's tight loss to that same USC team has basically flipped the fortunes in the South. Now it's ASU with a leg up on the rest of the division. The Sun Devils have an excellent chance of winning in Seattle and further extending their edge this weekend, while USC gets a major test in heading to Utah. If Utah upsets USC (and it would barely constitute an upset) and Washington upsets ASU, things would get incredibly messy. So yeah, let's root for that.

Sure bets

Here are the remaining in-conference win probabilities, broken into ranges.

Team / Range 10-19%
Chance
20-29%
Chance
30-39%
Chance
40-49%
Chance
50-59%
Chance
60-69%
Chance
70-79%
Chance
80-89%
Chance
Arizona (2-1)
1 2



3
Arizona State (3-1)




1 1 3
California (2-3) 2
1

1

Colorado (0-4) 4
1




Oregon (3-1)





1 4
Oregon State (1-2) 3
1 1
1

Stanford (2-2) 1 1


2
1
UCLA (2-2)




1 2 2
USC (4-1)

1
1

2
Utah (2-1)
2 1 1
1
1
Washington (1-2) 3
1
1 1

Washington State (1-3) 3
1

1

70+% games: Oregon 5, Arizona State 4, UCLA 4, Arizona 3, USC 2, Stanford 1, Utah 1

The reason Oregon and ASU are your new division favorites? Good records and a pretty soft home stretch.

Slog Level Delta

Here are the odds of a division champion finishing with a particular record:

Record North Winner South Winner
5-4 0.3% 0.0%
6-3 6.0% 0.7%
7-2 34.4% 43.6%
8-1 59.3% 55.7%
9-0 0.0% 0.0%

If Oregon starts to tumble, we could get into weird "5-4 or 6-3" territory there, but it's not very likely. Looks like an 8-1 North champion vs. an 8-1/7-2 South champion.

All Projections

This is an enormous weekend. If Oregon and Arizona State each win on the road, their chances of respective division titles become, if not airtight (particularly for UO), then close to it.

Hello, ASU. You've kind of come out of nowhere, haven't you...

Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
9 24-Oct-14 Oregon California 87.4%
9 25-Oct-14 Arizona Washington State 81.6%
9 25-Oct-14 Arizona State Washington 89.8%
9 25-Oct-14 Oregon State Stanford 11.5%
9 25-Oct-14 UCLA Colorado 95.9%
9 25-Oct-14 USC Utah 57.2%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
10 01-Nov-14 Arizona UCLA 23.8%
10 01-Nov-14 California Oregon State 62.9%
10 01-Nov-14 Stanford Oregon 15.1%
10 01-Nov-14 USC Washington State 86.3%
10 01-Nov-14 Utah Arizona State 23.5%
10 01-Nov-14 Washington Colorado 63.8%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
11 08-Nov-14 Colorado Arizona 4.1%
11 08-Nov-14 Oregon Utah 75.5%
11 08-Nov-14 UCLA Washington 90.2%
11 08-Nov-14 Washington State Oregon State 33.5%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
12 13-Nov-14 California USC 15.5%
12 15-Nov-14 Arizona State Oregon State 88.0%
12 15-Nov-14 Utah Stanford 35.5%
12 15-Nov-14 Washington Arizona 9.8%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
13 22-Nov-14 Arizona Utah 38.0%
13 22-Nov-14 Colorado Oregon 1.4%
13 22-Nov-14 Oregon State Washington 40.3%
13 22-Nov-14 Stanford California 67.4%
13 22-Nov-14 USC UCLA 30.1%
13 22-Nov-14 Washington State Arizona State 4.5%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
14 28-Nov-14 Arizona State Arizona 62.5%
14 28-Nov-14 Stanford UCLA 23.9%
14 29-Nov-14 Oregon Oregon State 94.0%
14 29-Nov-14 Utah Colorado 89.9%
14 29-Nov-14 Washington Washington State 36.6%