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College football projections: Week 9 F/+ picks

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Steve Dykes

I'll admit it ... I was getting a little freaked out midday Saturday. Through the 3:30 p.m. games, the F/+ "NEW" picks were 10-21 on the week. I was preparing to spend a good chunk of Sunday figuring out what blatant, obvious error I had made in putting those picks together, since a week that bad almost had to have involved human error of some kind. And since I had just made the switch from the patched-together, incomplete F/+ ratings (basically an amalgamation of preseason projections and he FEI and S&P+ ratings in their early form) to the full, broken-out-by-unit ratings, there was always a chance that I screwed something up, especially since the "OLD" picks below were still doing just fine.

And then "NEW" went 14-7 the rest of the way and mostly evened out. A 24-28 week is far from spectacular, but it's in the acceptable, "you didn't eff something up" range. And "OLD" went crazy.

Still, it was a weird week from a win probabilities standpoint. Another one like this, and I'll need to do some playing around to make sure everything is calibrated as it should be.

Week 8 2014 Season
"NEW" Method 24-28 (46%) 210-220-7 (49%)
"OLD" Method 32-20 (62%) 196-189-6 (51%)
When Both Methods Agree 23-19 (55%) 135-136-4 (50%)
"NEW" Method w/Pace Adjustment
81-75-3 (52%%)

OLD had a hell of a week, didn't it? It went 9-1 in games in which NEW and OLD disagreed, and I'm not sure I've seen a disparity like that before.

Week 8 2014 Season
Teams with 50-60% chance of winning 3-4 (43%) 21-23 (48%)
Teams with 60-70% chance of winning 5-6 (45%) 71-46 (61%)
Teams with 70-80% chance of winning 7-3 (70%) 98-25 (80%)
Teams with 80-90% chance of winning 9-5 (64%) 97-20 (83%)
Teams with 90-100% chance of winning 10-1 (91%) 78-3 (96%)

Like I said, a pretty strange week. I'll be revisiting the curve I've set to see if there's a particular reason why the 50-69% teams are underachieving and the 70-99% teams are winning more than expected. There might not be. It might just be a weird year (or there might be some further regression to the mean coming up. Or maybe I'll find I need to start applying a different home field advantage or something.

FBS vs. FBS

LOL THE PACE ADJUSTMENTS ARE PRODUCING CRAZY THINGS AND THEY AMUSE ME SO I'M KEEPING THEM. (See: Arizona State-Washington, Auburn-South Carolina, Arizona-Washington State...holy crap, Memphis-SMU...holy crap, Texas Tech-TCU...)

(But be honest ... what seems less likely to you: Missouri scoring 41 or Vanderbilt scoring minus-7? Actually, don't answer that.)

Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread NEW Prediction Chance of winning NEW Pick OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Tue 8:00 PM ESPN2 Arkansas State at UL-Lafayette 3 Arkansas State by 21.2 (48.6 - 27.4) 80.1% Arkansas State Arkansas State by 10.1 Arkansas State
Thu 7:00 PM ESPNU Connecticut at East Carolina -28 East Carolina by 45.7 (44.5 - -1.3) 97.9% East Carolina East Carolina by 27.8 Connecticut XXX
Thu 8:00 PM ESPN Miami-FL at Virginia Tech 2 Virginia Tech by 8.6 (19.4 - 10.8) 68.5% Virginia Tech Virginia Tech by 5.7 Virginia Tech
Fri 7:00 PM ESPN2 South Florida at Cincinnati -10.5 Cincinnati by 21.0 (39.0 - 18.1) 84.7% Cincinnati Cincinnati by 14.0 Cincinnati
Fri 7:30 PM ESPNU Troy at South Alabama -14 South Alabama by 33.2 (38.0 - 4.8) 91.1% South Alabama South Alabama by 18.8 South Alabama
Fri 9:00 PM ESPN BYU at Boise State -7 BYU by 5.8 (43.3 - 37.5) 63.0% BYU BYU by 2.2 BYU
Fri 10:00 PM FS1 Oregon at California 18 Oregon by 28.0 (50.7 - 22.8) 87.4% Oregon Oregon by 14.6 California XXX
Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread NEW Prediction Chance of winning NEW Pick OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Sat 12:00 PM BTN Maryland at Wisconsin -10.5 Maryland by 7.5 (24.6 - 17.2) 66.7% Maryland Maryland by 3.7 Maryland
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN News Memphis at SMU 23.5 Memphis by 66.1 (52.7 - -13.5) 98.6% Memphis Memphis by 34.5 Memphis
Sat 12:00 PM ESPNU Minnesota at Illinois 6 Minnesota by 26.8 (37.0 - 10.1) 89.3% Minnesota Minnesota by 16.0 Minnesota
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN3 North Carolina at Virginia -7 Virginia by 35.6 (53.1 - 17.5) 91.1% Virginia Virginia by 18.7 Virginia
Sat 12:00 PM FSN affiliates North Texas at Rice -14 Rice by 22.4 (48.3 - 25.9) 83.5% Rice Rice by 13.3 North Texas XXX
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN2 Rutgers at Nebraska -20 Nebraska by 29.4 (44.8 - 15.4) 88.8% Nebraska Nebraska by 16.9 Rutgers XXX
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN Texas at Kansas State -10 Kansas State by 34.9 (33.2 - -1.8) 92.9% Kansas State Kansas State by 20.4 Kansas State
Sat 12:00 PM SECN UAB at Arkansas -25 Arkansas by 21.5 (41.9 - 20.4) 80.5% UAB Arkansas by 11.5 UAB
Sat 1:00 PM ESPN3 Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan 20.5 Northern Illinois by 25.4 (39.6 - 14.3) 86.4% Northern Illinois Northern Illinois by 13.9 Eastern Michigan XXX
Sat 1:00 PM CBSSN San Jose State at Navy -9 Navy by 28.5 (43.5 - 15.0) 87.8% Navy Navy by 16.1 Navy
Sat 2:00 PM ESPN3 Akron at Ball State 1 Akron by 13.1 (30.8 - 17.7) 73.3% Akron Akron by 6.6 Akron
Sat 2:00 PM ESPN3 Georgia Southern at Georgia State 18 Georgia Southern by 22.1 (53.0 - 30.9) 83.0% Georgia Southern Georgia Southern by 11.7 Georgia State XXX
Sat 2:00 PM ESPN3 Massachusetts at Toledo -17 Toledo by 29.1 (67.8 - 38.7) 88.0% Toledo Toledo by 16.3 Massachusetts XXX
Sat 2:00 PM ESPN3 Ohio at Western Michigan -10 Western Michigan by 36.6 (42.3 - 5.7) 94.2% Western Michigan Western Michigan by 21.8 Western Michigan
Sat 2:00 PM Pac-12 UCLA at Colorado 14 UCLA by 49.8 (75.8 - 26.0) 95.9% UCLA UCLA by 22.7 UCLA
Sat 2:30 PM ASN Kent State at Miami-OH -7 Miami-OH by 12.8 (29.9 - 17.1) 74.3% Miami-OH Miami-OH by 8.3 Miami-OH
Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread NEW Prediction Chance of winning NEW Pick OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN3 Boston College at Wake Forest 14 Boston College by 34.2 (25.2 - -9.0) 94.0% Boston College Boston College by 20.3 Boston College
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN3 Central Michigan at Buffalo 6 Central Michigan by 14.7 (41.9 - 27.3) 75.1% Central Michigan Central Michigan by 7.5 Central Michigan
Sat 3:30 PM FS1 Florida Atlantic at Marshall -28 Marshall by 60.1 (59.2 - -0.9) 98.6% Marshall Marshall by 34.9 Marshall
Sat 3:30 PM ESPNU Georgia Tech at Pittsburgh -3 Pittsburgh by 2.3 (55.2 - 52.9) 59.1% Georgia Tech Pittsburgh by 1.9 Georgia Tech
Sat 3:30 PM CSNC Louisiana Tech at Southern Miss 9 Louisiana Tech by 22.9 (31.6 - 8.7) 85.0% Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech by 13.0 Louisiana Tech
Sat 3:30 PM ABC Michigan at Michigan State -17.5 Michigan State by 33.0 (34.5 - 1.4) 91.9% Michigan State Michigan State by 19.5 Michigan State
Sat 3:30 PM CBS Mississippi State at Kentucky 14.5 Mississippi State by 50.1 (46.6 - -3.5) 97.8% Mississippi State Mississippi State by 26.3 Mississippi State
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN2 Oregon State at Stanford -13 Stanford by 26.5 (22.8 - -3.8) 88.5% Stanford Stanford by 16.6 Stanford
Sat 3:30 PM Fox Texas Tech at TCU -23 TCU by 64.9 (76.3 - 11.4) 98.6% TCU TCU by 33.0 TCU
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN West Virginia at Oklahoma State -1 West Virginia by 15.5 (42.7 - 27.2) 74.1% West Virginia West Virginia by 7.0 West Virginia
Sat 4:00 PM $CSLive Old Dominion at Western Kentucky -10.5 Western Kentucky by 20.6 (63.2 - 42.6) 80.8% Western Kentucky Western Kentucky by 11.7 Western Kentucky
Sat 4:00 PM ESPN News UNLV at Utah State -17 Utah State by 49.9 (49.6 - -0.3) 98.4% Utah State Utah State by 29.5 Utah State
Sat 4:00 PM SECN Vanderbilt at Missouri -23 Missouri by 48.7 (41.3 - -7.3) 98.6% Missouri Missouri by 34.3 Missouri
Sat 5:00 PM CBSSN Temple at Central Florida -7 Central Florida by 31.4 (36.9 - 5.5) 92.8% Central Florida Central Florida by 20.4 Central Florida
Sat 6:00 PM Pac-12 Arizona at Washington State 2.5 Arizona by 24.4 (66.6 - 42.2) 81.6% Arizona Arizona by 10.9 Arizona
Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread NEW Prediction Chance of winning NEW Pick OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Sat 7:00 PM ESPNU Syracuse at Clemson -14.5 Clemson by 58.1 (54.3 - -3.8) 98.6% Clemson Clemson by 31.3 Clemson
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 Texas State at UL-Monroe -3 UL-Monroe by 7.6 (22.4 - 14.9) 66.1% UL-Monroe UL-Monroe by 4.7 UL-Monroe
Sat 7:00 PM ASN UTEP at UTSA -11 UTSA by 33.1 (39.6 - 6.5) 91.8% UTSA UTSA by 19.4 UTSA
Sat 7:00 PM MWC Video Wyoming at Colorado State -18.5 Colorado State by 51.3 (53.8 - 2.4) 98.6% Colorado State Colorado State by 32.7 Colorado State
Sat 7:15 PM ESPN Ole Miss at LSU 4 Ole Miss by 26.4 (33.6 - 7.3) 86.6% Ole Miss Ole Miss by 14.1 Ole Miss
Sat 7:30 PM ESPN2 Alabama at Tennessee 17.5 Alabama by 25.1 (28.1 - 2.9) 84.8% Alabama Alabama by 12.9 Tennessee XXX
Sat 7:30 PM SECN South Carolina at Auburn -19 Auburn by 37.5 (64.3 - 26.8) 93.2% Auburn Auburn by 20.8 Auburn
Sat 8:00 PM ABC Ohio State at Penn State 14.5 Ohio State by 26.7 (33.2 - 6.4) 86.0% Ohio State Ohio State by 13.6 Penn State XXX
Sat 10:00 PM FS1 USC at Utah 1 USC by 1.1 (23.8 - 22.8) 57.2% USC Utah by 0.1 Utah XXX
Sat 10:45 PM ESPN Arizona State at Washington 3.5 Arizona State by 32.9 (48.8 - 15.9) 89.8% Arizona State Arizona State by 16.4 Arizona State
Sun 12:00 AM MWC Video Nevada at Hawaii 3 Nevada by 21.0 (36.6 - 15.6) 80.0% Nevada Nevada by 10.0 Nevada