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I'll admit it ... I was getting a little freaked out midday Saturday. Through the 3:30 p.m. games, the F/+ "NEW" picks were 10-21 on the week. I was preparing to spend a good chunk of Sunday figuring out what blatant, obvious error I had made in putting those picks together, since a week that bad almost had to have involved human error of some kind. And since I had just made the switch from the patched-together, incomplete F/+ ratings (basically an amalgamation of preseason projections and he FEI and S&P+ ratings in their early form) to the full, broken-out-by-unit ratings, there was always a chance that I screwed something up, especially since the "OLD" picks below were still doing just fine.
And then "NEW" went 14-7 the rest of the way and mostly evened out. A 24-28 week is far from spectacular, but it's in the acceptable, "you didn't eff something up" range. And "OLD" went crazy.
Still, it was a weird week from a win probabilities standpoint. Another one like this, and I'll need to do some playing around to make sure everything is calibrated as it should be.
| Week 8 | 2014 Season | |
| "NEW" Method | 24-28 (46%) | 210-220-7 (49%) |
| "OLD" Method | 32-20 (62%) | 196-189-6 (51%) |
| When Both Methods Agree | 23-19 (55%) | 135-136-4 (50%) |
| "NEW" Method w/Pace Adjustment | 81-75-3 (52%%) |
OLD had a hell of a week, didn't it? It went 9-1 in games in which NEW and OLD disagreed, and I'm not sure I've seen a disparity like that before.
| Week 8 | 2014 Season | |
| Teams with 50-60% chance of winning | 3-4 (43%) | 21-23 (48%) |
| Teams with 60-70% chance of winning | 5-6 (45%) | 71-46 (61%) |
| Teams with 70-80% chance of winning | 7-3 (70%) | 98-25 (80%) |
| Teams with 80-90% chance of winning | 9-5 (64%) | 97-20 (83%) |
| Teams with 90-100% chance of winning | 10-1 (91%) | 78-3 (96%) |
Like I said, a pretty strange week. I'll be revisiting the curve I've set to see if there's a particular reason why the 50-69% teams are underachieving and the 70-99% teams are winning more than expected. There might not be. It might just be a weird year (or there might be some further regression to the mean coming up. Or maybe I'll find I need to start applying a different home field advantage or something.
FBS vs. FBS
LOL THE PACE ADJUSTMENTS ARE PRODUCING CRAZY THINGS AND THEY AMUSE ME SO I'M KEEPING THEM. (See: Arizona State-Washington, Auburn-South Carolina, Arizona-Washington State...holy crap, Memphis-SMU...holy crap, Texas Tech-TCU...)
(But be honest ... what seems less likely to you: Missouri scoring 41 or Vanderbilt scoring minus-7? Actually, don't answer that.)
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | NEW Prediction | Chance of winning | NEW Pick | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Different? |
| Tue | 8:00 PM | ESPN2 | Arkansas State at UL-Lafayette | 3 | Arkansas State by 21.2 (48.6 - 27.4) | 80.1% | Arkansas State | Arkansas State by 10.1 | Arkansas State | |
| Thu | 7:00 PM | ESPNU | Connecticut at East Carolina | -28 | East Carolina by 45.7 (44.5 - -1.3) | 97.9% | East Carolina | East Carolina by 27.8 | Connecticut | XXX |
| Thu | 8:00 PM | ESPN | Miami-FL at Virginia Tech | 2 | Virginia Tech by 8.6 (19.4 - 10.8) | 68.5% | Virginia Tech | Virginia Tech by 5.7 | Virginia Tech | |
| Fri | 7:00 PM | ESPN2 | South Florida at Cincinnati | -10.5 | Cincinnati by 21.0 (39.0 - 18.1) | 84.7% | Cincinnati | Cincinnati by 14.0 | Cincinnati | |
| Fri | 7:30 PM | ESPNU | Troy at South Alabama | -14 | South Alabama by 33.2 (38.0 - 4.8) | 91.1% | South Alabama | South Alabama by 18.8 | South Alabama | |
| Fri | 9:00 PM | ESPN | BYU at Boise State | -7 | BYU by 5.8 (43.3 - 37.5) | 63.0% | BYU | BYU by 2.2 | BYU | |
| Fri | 10:00 PM | FS1 | Oregon at California | 18 | Oregon by 28.0 (50.7 - 22.8) | 87.4% | Oregon | Oregon by 14.6 | California | XXX |
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | NEW Prediction | Chance of winning | NEW Pick | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Different? |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | BTN | Maryland at Wisconsin | -10.5 | Maryland by 7.5 (24.6 - 17.2) | 66.7% | Maryland | Maryland by 3.7 | Maryland | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN News | Memphis at SMU | 23.5 | Memphis by 66.1 (52.7 - -13.5) | 98.6% | Memphis | Memphis by 34.5 | Memphis | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPNU | Minnesota at Illinois | 6 | Minnesota by 26.8 (37.0 - 10.1) | 89.3% | Minnesota | Minnesota by 16.0 | Minnesota | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN3 | North Carolina at Virginia | -7 | Virginia by 35.6 (53.1 - 17.5) | 91.1% | Virginia | Virginia by 18.7 | Virginia | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | FSN affiliates | North Texas at Rice | -14 | Rice by 22.4 (48.3 - 25.9) | 83.5% | Rice | Rice by 13.3 | North Texas | XXX |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN2 | Rutgers at Nebraska | -20 | Nebraska by 29.4 (44.8 - 15.4) | 88.8% | Nebraska | Nebraska by 16.9 | Rutgers | XXX |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN | Texas at Kansas State | -10 | Kansas State by 34.9 (33.2 - -1.8) | 92.9% | Kansas State | Kansas State by 20.4 | Kansas State | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | SECN | UAB at Arkansas | -25 | Arkansas by 21.5 (41.9 - 20.4) | 80.5% | UAB | Arkansas by 11.5 | UAB | |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | ESPN3 | Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan | 20.5 | Northern Illinois by 25.4 (39.6 - 14.3) | 86.4% | Northern Illinois | Northern Illinois by 13.9 | Eastern Michigan | XXX |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | CBSSN | San Jose State at Navy | -9 | Navy by 28.5 (43.5 - 15.0) | 87.8% | Navy | Navy by 16.1 | Navy | |
| Sat | 2:00 PM | ESPN3 | Akron at Ball State | 1 | Akron by 13.1 (30.8 - 17.7) | 73.3% | Akron | Akron by 6.6 | Akron | |
| Sat | 2:00 PM | ESPN3 | Georgia Southern at Georgia State | 18 | Georgia Southern by 22.1 (53.0 - 30.9) | 83.0% | Georgia Southern | Georgia Southern by 11.7 | Georgia State | XXX |
| Sat | 2:00 PM | ESPN3 | Massachusetts at Toledo | -17 | Toledo by 29.1 (67.8 - 38.7) | 88.0% | Toledo | Toledo by 16.3 | Massachusetts | XXX |
| Sat | 2:00 PM | ESPN3 | Ohio at Western Michigan | -10 | Western Michigan by 36.6 (42.3 - 5.7) | 94.2% | Western Michigan | Western Michigan by 21.8 | Western Michigan | |
| Sat | 2:00 PM | Pac-12 | UCLA at Colorado | 14 | UCLA by 49.8 (75.8 - 26.0) | 95.9% | UCLA | UCLA by 22.7 | UCLA | |
| Sat | 2:30 PM | ASN | Kent State at Miami-OH | -7 | Miami-OH by 12.8 (29.9 - 17.1) | 74.3% | Miami-OH | Miami-OH by 8.3 | Miami-OH | |
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | NEW Prediction | Chance of winning | NEW Pick | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Different? |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Boston College at Wake Forest | 14 | Boston College by 34.2 (25.2 - -9.0) | 94.0% | Boston College | Boston College by 20.3 | Boston College | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Central Michigan at Buffalo | 6 | Central Michigan by 14.7 (41.9 - 27.3) | 75.1% | Central Michigan | Central Michigan by 7.5 | Central Michigan | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | FS1 | Florida Atlantic at Marshall | -28 | Marshall by 60.1 (59.2 - -0.9) | 98.6% | Marshall | Marshall by 34.9 | Marshall | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPNU | Georgia Tech at Pittsburgh | -3 | Pittsburgh by 2.3 (55.2 - 52.9) | 59.1% | Georgia Tech | Pittsburgh by 1.9 | Georgia Tech | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | CSNC | Louisiana Tech at Southern Miss | 9 | Louisiana Tech by 22.9 (31.6 - 8.7) | 85.0% | Louisiana Tech | Louisiana Tech by 13.0 | Louisiana Tech | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ABC | Michigan at Michigan State | -17.5 | Michigan State by 33.0 (34.5 - 1.4) | 91.9% | Michigan State | Michigan State by 19.5 | Michigan State | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | CBS | Mississippi State at Kentucky | 14.5 | Mississippi State by 50.1 (46.6 - -3.5) | 97.8% | Mississippi State | Mississippi State by 26.3 | Mississippi State | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN2 | Oregon State at Stanford | -13 | Stanford by 26.5 (22.8 - -3.8) | 88.5% | Stanford | Stanford by 16.6 | Stanford | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Fox | Texas Tech at TCU | -23 | TCU by 64.9 (76.3 - 11.4) | 98.6% | TCU | TCU by 33.0 | TCU | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN | West Virginia at Oklahoma State | -1 | West Virginia by 15.5 (42.7 - 27.2) | 74.1% | West Virginia | West Virginia by 7.0 | West Virginia | |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | $CSLive | Old Dominion at Western Kentucky | -10.5 | Western Kentucky by 20.6 (63.2 - 42.6) | 80.8% | Western Kentucky | Western Kentucky by 11.7 | Western Kentucky | |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | ESPN News | UNLV at Utah State | -17 | Utah State by 49.9 (49.6 - -0.3) | 98.4% | Utah State | Utah State by 29.5 | Utah State | |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | SECN | Vanderbilt at Missouri | -23 | Missouri by 48.7 (41.3 - -7.3) | 98.6% | Missouri | Missouri by 34.3 | Missouri | |
| Sat | 5:00 PM | CBSSN | Temple at Central Florida | -7 | Central Florida by 31.4 (36.9 - 5.5) | 92.8% | Central Florida | Central Florida by 20.4 | Central Florida | |
| Sat | 6:00 PM | Pac-12 | Arizona at Washington State | 2.5 | Arizona by 24.4 (66.6 - 42.2) | 81.6% | Arizona | Arizona by 10.9 | Arizona | |
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | NEW Prediction | Chance of winning | NEW Pick | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Different? |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPNU | Syracuse at Clemson | -14.5 | Clemson by 58.1 (54.3 - -3.8) | 98.6% | Clemson | Clemson by 31.3 | Clemson | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Texas State at UL-Monroe | -3 | UL-Monroe by 7.6 (22.4 - 14.9) | 66.1% | UL-Monroe | UL-Monroe by 4.7 | UL-Monroe | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ASN | UTEP at UTSA | -11 | UTSA by 33.1 (39.6 - 6.5) | 91.8% | UTSA | UTSA by 19.4 | UTSA | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | MWC Video | Wyoming at Colorado State | -18.5 | Colorado State by 51.3 (53.8 - 2.4) | 98.6% | Colorado State | Colorado State by 32.7 | Colorado State | |
| Sat | 7:15 PM | ESPN | Ole Miss at LSU | 4 | Ole Miss by 26.4 (33.6 - 7.3) | 86.6% | Ole Miss | Ole Miss by 14.1 | Ole Miss | |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | ESPN2 | Alabama at Tennessee | 17.5 | Alabama by 25.1 (28.1 - 2.9) | 84.8% | Alabama | Alabama by 12.9 | Tennessee | XXX |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | SECN | South Carolina at Auburn | -19 | Auburn by 37.5 (64.3 - 26.8) | 93.2% | Auburn | Auburn by 20.8 | Auburn | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | ABC | Ohio State at Penn State | 14.5 | Ohio State by 26.7 (33.2 - 6.4) | 86.0% | Ohio State | Ohio State by 13.6 | Penn State | XXX |
| Sat | 10:00 PM | FS1 | USC at Utah | 1 | USC by 1.1 (23.8 - 22.8) | 57.2% | USC | Utah by 0.1 | Utah | XXX |
| Sat | 10:45 PM | ESPN | Arizona State at Washington | 3.5 | Arizona State by 32.9 (48.8 - 15.9) | 89.8% | Arizona State | Arizona State by 16.4 | Arizona State | |
| Sun | 12:00 AM | MWC Video | Nevada at Hawaii | 3 | Nevada by 21.0 (36.6 - 15.6) | 80.0% | Nevada | Nevada by 10.0 | Nevada |
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