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Study Hall: Florida State 31, Notre Dame 27

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Streeter Lecka

Florida State 31, Notre Dame 27

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Florida State Notre Dame Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 57 87
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 25.9 32.3 29.8
Possessions 13 12
Scoring Opportunities*
5 7
Points Per Opportunity 6.20 3.86 4.69
Leverage Rate** 75.4% 71.3% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.584 0.501 0.506
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Florida State Notre Dame
Total 24.5 28.9
Rushing 5.8 8.6
Passing 18.7 20.3
Success Rate (what's this?) Florida State Notre Dame Nat'l Avg
All (close) 52.6% 43.7% 42.0%
Rushing (close) 40.0% 53.1% 43.5%
Passing (close) 62.5% 38.2% 40.4%
Standard Downs 60.5% 43.6% 47.3%
Passing Downs 28.6% 44.0% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Florida State Notre Dame Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.82 0.76 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.58 0.51 0.73
Passing (close) 0.93 0.97 0.99
Standard Downs 0.69 0.71 0.77
Passing Downs 1.63 0.88 1.14
Line Stats Florida State Notre Dame Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 1.80 3.72 2.93
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 4.6% 0.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 16.7% 7.4%
Turnovers Florida State Notre Dame
Turnovers 1 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 3.4 9.2
Turnover Margin Florida State +1
Exp. TO Margin Florida State +3
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Notre Dame +2
TO Points Margin Florida State +5.8 points
Situational Florida State Notre Dame
Q1 S&P 0.605 0.463
Q2 S&P 0.421 0.546
Q3 S&P 0.717 0.617
Q4 S&P 0.598 0.430
1st Down S&P 0.599 0.490
2nd Down S&P 0.638 0.567
3rd Down S&P 0.468 0.436
Projected Scoring Margin: Florida State by 1.4
Actual Scoring Margin: Florida State by 4

That Notre Dame's success rate was actually better on passing downs is pretty impressive. The Irish faced 25 passing downs and were successful on 11 -- 6-for-7 rushing, and 5-for-18 passing.

Shoulda run more. #analysis

(Actually, they really probably should have.)

Meanwhile, the FSU passing game is clicking at an incredibly high level, but that run game still just isn't. And it's still a bit confusing to me.