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Our odds of an Ole Miss-Georgia SEC title game got even stronger last week as UGA whipped Arkansas for about three quarters and Ole Miss pasted Tennessee for four. But a pair of other results -- Missouri's strangely dominant win over Florida and Alabama's completely dominant win over Texas A&M -- flipped the script for a few different SEC teams.
First, let's compare the most recent win projections to the original ones from a month or so ago.


Win projections
A month ago, the F/+ ratings had no idea what to do with the SEC West, in which all seven teams were viable, top-30 squads. But LSU has had some wobbly moments since then, and Texas A&M and Arkansas have collapsed to varying degrees. A&M has done so with velocity, while Arkansas' has been more of a slow fade. Regardless, "SEVEN HEAVYWEIGHTS!!!" has turned more into four, maybe 4.5. It's still a great division, still perhaps the best ever, but not seven deep.

East | F/+ Ranking | Proj. Conf. Wins | Last Week (Change) | With Week 9 win | With Week 9 loss |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Georgia (4-1, 6-1) | 9 | 6.55 | 6.02 (+0.53) | ||
Missouri (2-1, 5-2) | 36 | 5.84 | 4.18 (+1.66) | 5.85 | 4.85 |
Florida (2-3, 3-3) | 58 | 3.26 | 4.30 (-1.04) | ||
Tennessee (0-3, 3-4) | 38 | 3.21 | 3.33 (-0.12) | 4.06 | 3.06 |
South Carolina (2-3, 4-3) | 41 | 3.17 | 3.07 (+0.10) | 4.10 | 3.10 |
Kentucky (2-2, 5-2) | 76 | 2.21 | 2.75 (-0.54) | 3.19 | 2.19 |
Vanderbilt (0-4, 2-5) | 115 | 0.16 | 0.10 (+0.06) | 1.14 | 0.14 |
West | F/+ Ranking | Proj. Conf. Wins | Last Week (Change) | With Week 8 win | With Week 8 loss |
Ole Miss (4-0, 7-0) | 1 | 7.42 | 7.23 (+0.19) | 7.55 | 6.55 |
Mississippi State (3-0, 6-0) | 6 | 6.44 | 6.86 (-0.42) | 6.46 | 5.46 |
Alabama (3-1, 6-1) | 3 | 6.01 | 5.07 (+0.94) | 6.16 | 5.16 |
Auburn (2-1, 5-1) | 5 | 4.84 | 5.20 (-0.36) | 4.90 | 3.90 |
LSU (2-2, 6-2) | 27 | 3.89 | 3.15 (+0.74) | 4.76 | 3.76 |
Texas A&M (2-3, 5-3) | 59 | 2.46 | 3.60 (-1.14) | ||
Arkansas (0-4, 3-4) | 50 | 0.55 | 1.13 (-0.58) |
Fortunes changed pretty dramatically for four teams. Florida looked so bad against Missouri that the Gators fell from 44th to 58th in the F/+ rankings (Missouri rose from 48th to 36th), and A&M looked sooooo baaaaaad against Alabama that the Aggies fell from 36th to 59th (Alabama rose from 10th to third). Those teams' win expectations shifted accordingly, and Missouri got a double-shift of sorts -- the Tigers' odds of beating A&M in College Station increased dramatically (and too much for my own comfort level). Hell, their odds of beating Arkansas, Kentucky, and Tennessee all improved as well.
So Missouri, with a bottom-30 offense, now has a decent chance of going 6-2 in conference. Having actually watched Mizzou's last four games, I can't imagine that it actually happens, but it's on the table. That's what awesome defense and special teams can do for you, I guess.
EAST
Major contenders: Georgia
Minor contenders: Missouri
But yeah, Georgia's still the favorite here. Missouri could technically match the Dawgs at 6-2 or 7-1, but even then, the Tiger would have to surpass the Dawgs since Georgia own the tie-breaker. Not bloody likely.
WEST
Serious contenders: Ole Miss
Minor contenders: Mississippi State, Alabama
Alabama's fantastic performance against A&M, plus a favorable remaining schedule (both Mississippi State and Auburn have to come to Tuscaloosa), now give the Tide a solid chance of finishing 7-1. The problem is that Ole Miss, which owns the tie-breaker, has a 90.2 percent chance of finishing 7-1 or better. (That's how well the Rebels have been playing of late.) So barring a pretty significant upset, the Tide are out. That means that, even if MSU loses at Alabama, we're probably looking at a winner-take-all Egg Bowl in Oxford. Batten down the hatches.
Sure bets
Here are the remaining in-conference win probabilities, broken into ranges.
Team / Range | 10-19% Chance |
20-29% Chance |
30-39% Chance |
40-49% Chance |
50-59% Chance |
60-69% Chance |
70-79% Chance |
80-89% Chance |
Alabama (3-1) | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||
Arkansas (0-4) | 2 | 2 | ||||||
Auburn (2-1) | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||||
Florida (2-3) | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||
Georgia (4-1) | 1 | 2 | ||||||
Kentucky (2-2) | 4 | |||||||
LSU (2-2) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
Mississippi State (3-0) | 1 | 1 | 3 | |||||
Missouri (2-1) | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||||
Ole Miss (4-0) | 2 | 2 | ||||||
South Carolina (2-3) | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||
Tennessee (0-3) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | ||||
Texas A&M (2-3) | 2 | 1 | ||||||
Vanderbilt (0-4) | 4 |
70+% games: Missouri 4, Ole Miss 4, Mississippi State 3, Alabama 2, Auburn 2, Georgia 2, LSU 2, Tennessee 2, Florida 1.
Slog Level Delta
Here are the odds of a division champion finishing with a particular record:
Record | West Winner | East Winner |
4-4 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
5-3 | 0.0% | 0.6% |
6-2 | 1.1% | 33.3% |
7-1 | 40.7% | 66.1% |
8-0 | 58.2% | 0.0% |
No slog here.
All Projections
Week | Date | Road | Home | Road Team's %Chance |
9 | 25-Oct-14 | Alabama | Tennessee | 84.8% |
9 | 25-Oct-14 | Mississippi State | Kentucky | 97.8% |
9 | 25-Oct-14 | Ole Miss | LSU | 86.6% |
9 | 25-Oct-14 | South Carolina | Auburn | 6.8% |
9 | 25-Oct-14 | Vanderbilt | Missouri | 1.4% |
Week | Date | Road | Home | Road Team's %Chance |
10 | 01-Nov-14 | Arkansas | Mississippi State | 4.2% |
10 | 01-Nov-14 | Auburn | Ole Miss | 21.3% |
10 | 01-Nov-14 | Florida | Georgia | 2.6% |
10 | 01-Nov-14 | Kentucky | Missouri | 7.7% |
10 | 01-Nov-14 | Tennessee | South Carolina | 56.0% |
Week | Date | Road | Home | Road Team's %Chance |
11 | 08-Nov-14 | Alabama | LSU | 78.3% |
11 | 08-Nov-14 | Florida | Vanderbilt | 89.8% |
11 | 08-Nov-14 | Georgia | Kentucky | 97.3% |
11 | 08-Nov-14 | Texas A&M | Auburn | 2.0% |
Week | Date | Road | Home | Road Team's %Chance |
12 | 15-Nov-14 | Auburn | Georgia | 39.9% |
12 | 15-Nov-14 | Kentucky | Tennessee | 8.6% |
12 | 15-Nov-14 | LSU | Arkansas | 72.8% |
12 | 15-Nov-14 | Mississippi State | Alabama | 31.7% |
12 | 15-Nov-14 | Missouri | Texas A&M | 75.2% |
12 | 15-Nov-14 | South Carolina | Florida | 66.5% |
Week | Date | Road | Home | Road Team's %Chance |
13 | 22-Nov-14 | Missouri | Tennessee | 38.8% |
13 | 22-Nov-14 | Ole Miss | Arkansas | 96.7% |
13 | 22-Nov-14 | Vanderbilt | Mississippi State | 1.4% |
Week | Date | Road | Home | Road Team's %Chance |
14 | 27-Nov-14 | LSU | Texas A&M | 80.9% |
14 | 28-Nov-14 | Arkansas | Missouri | 21.6% |
14 | 29-Nov-14 | Auburn | Alabama | 31.7% |
14 | 29-Nov-14 | Mississippi State | Ole Miss | 21.3% |
14 | 29-Nov-14 | Tennessee | Vanderbilt | 97.9% |
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