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Updated SEC conference projections through 8 weeks

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Spruce Derden-USA TODAY Sports

Our odds of an Ole Miss-Georgia SEC title game got even stronger last week as UGA whipped Arkansas for about three quarters and Ole Miss pasted Tennessee for four. But a pair of other results -- Missouri's strangely dominant win over Florida and Alabama's completely dominant win over Texas A&M -- flipped the script for a few different SEC teams.

First, let's compare the most recent win projections to the original ones from a month or so ago.

Win projections

A month ago, the F/+ ratings had no idea what to do with the SEC West, in which all seven teams were viable, top-30 squads. But LSU has had some wobbly moments since then, and Texas A&M and Arkansas have collapsed to varying degrees. A&M has done so with velocity, while Arkansas' has been more of a slow fade. Regardless, "SEVEN HEAVYWEIGHTS!!!" has turned more into four, maybe 4.5. It's still a great division, still perhaps the best ever, but not seven deep.

Odds of SEC conference records
East F/+ Ranking Proj. Conf. Wins Last Week (Change) With Week 9 win With Week 9 loss
Georgia (4-1, 6-1) 9 6.55 6.02 (+0.53)

Missouri (2-1, 5-2) 36 5.84 4.18 (+1.66) 5.85 4.85
Florida (2-3, 3-3) 58 3.26 4.30 (-1.04)

Tennessee (0-3, 3-4) 38 3.21 3.33 (-0.12) 4.06 3.06
South Carolina (2-3, 4-3) 41 3.17 3.07 (+0.10) 4.10 3.10
Kentucky (2-2, 5-2) 76 2.21 2.75 (-0.54) 3.19 2.19
Vanderbilt (0-4, 2-5) 115 0.16 0.10 (+0.06) 1.14 0.14
West F/+ Ranking Proj. Conf. Wins Last Week (Change) With Week 8 win With Week 8 loss
Ole Miss (4-0, 7-0) 1 7.42 7.23 (+0.19) 7.55 6.55
Mississippi State (3-0, 6-0) 6 6.44 6.86 (-0.42) 6.46 5.46
Alabama (3-1, 6-1) 3 6.01 5.07 (+0.94) 6.16 5.16
Auburn (2-1, 5-1) 5 4.84 5.20 (-0.36) 4.90 3.90
LSU (2-2, 6-2) 27 3.89 3.15 (+0.74) 4.76 3.76
Texas A&M (2-3, 5-3) 59 2.46 3.60 (-1.14)

Arkansas (0-4, 3-4) 50 0.55 1.13 (-0.58)

Fortunes changed pretty dramatically for four teams. Florida looked so bad against Missouri that the Gators fell from 44th to 58th in the F/+ rankings (Missouri rose from 48th to 36th), and A&M looked sooooo baaaaaad against Alabama that the Aggies fell from 36th to 59th (Alabama rose from 10th to third). Those teams' win expectations shifted accordingly, and Missouri got a double-shift of sorts -- the Tigers' odds of beating A&M in College Station increased dramatically (and too much for my own comfort level). Hell, their odds of beating Arkansas, Kentucky, and Tennessee all improved as well.

So Missouri, with a bottom-30 offense, now has a decent chance of going 6-2 in conference. Having actually watched Mizzou's last four games, I can't imagine that it actually happens, but it's on the table. That's what awesome defense and special teams can do for you, I guess.

EAST
Major contenders: Georgia
Minor contenders: Missouri

But yeah, Georgia's still the favorite here. Missouri could technically match the Dawgs at 6-2 or 7-1, but even then, the Tiger would have to surpass the Dawgs since Georgia own the tie-breaker. Not bloody likely.

WEST
Serious contenders: Ole Miss
Minor contenders: Mississippi State, Alabama

Alabama's fantastic performance against A&M, plus a favorable remaining schedule (both Mississippi State and Auburn have to come to Tuscaloosa), now give the Tide a solid chance of finishing 7-1. The problem is that Ole Miss, which owns the tie-breaker, has a 90.2 percent chance of finishing 7-1 or better. (That's how well the Rebels have been playing of late.) So barring a pretty significant upset, the Tide are out. That means that, even if MSU loses at Alabama, we're probably looking at a winner-take-all Egg Bowl in Oxford. Batten down the hatches.

Sure bets

Here are the remaining in-conference win probabilities, broken into ranges.

Team / Range 10-19%
Chance
20-29%
Chance
30-39%
Chance
40-49%
Chance
50-59%
Chance
60-69%
Chance
70-79%
Chance
80-89%
Chance
Alabama (3-1)




2 1 1
Arkansas (0-4) 2 2





Auburn (2-1)
1 2



2
Florida (2-3) 1
1



1
Georgia (4-1)




1
2
Kentucky (2-2) 4






LSU (2-2) 1 1



1 1
Mississippi State (3-0)
1 1



3
Missouri (2-1)

1


2 2
Ole Miss (4-0)





2 2
South Carolina (2-3) 1

1
1

Tennessee (0-3) 1


1 1
2
Texas A&M (2-3) 2 1





Vanderbilt (0-4) 4






70+% games: Missouri 4, Ole Miss 4, Mississippi State 3, Alabama 2, Auburn 2, Georgia 2, LSU 2, Tennessee 2, Florida 1.

Slog Level Delta

Here are the odds of a division champion finishing with a particular record:

Record West Winner East Winner
4-4 0.0% 0.0%
5-3 0.0% 0.6%
6-2 1.1% 33.3%
7-1 40.7% 66.1%
8-0 58.2% 0.0%

No slog here.

All Projections

Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
9 25-Oct-14 Alabama Tennessee 84.8%
9 25-Oct-14 Mississippi State Kentucky 97.8%
9 25-Oct-14 Ole Miss LSU 86.6%
9 25-Oct-14 South Carolina Auburn 6.8%
9 25-Oct-14 Vanderbilt Missouri 1.4%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
10 01-Nov-14 Arkansas Mississippi State 4.2%
10 01-Nov-14 Auburn Ole Miss 21.3%
10 01-Nov-14 Florida Georgia 2.6%
10 01-Nov-14 Kentucky Missouri 7.7%
10 01-Nov-14 Tennessee South Carolina 56.0%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
11 08-Nov-14 Alabama LSU 78.3%
11 08-Nov-14 Florida Vanderbilt 89.8%
11 08-Nov-14 Georgia Kentucky 97.3%
11 08-Nov-14 Texas A&M Auburn 2.0%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
12 15-Nov-14 Auburn Georgia 39.9%
12 15-Nov-14 Kentucky Tennessee 8.6%
12 15-Nov-14 LSU Arkansas 72.8%
12 15-Nov-14 Mississippi State Alabama 31.7%
12 15-Nov-14 Missouri Texas A&M 75.2%
12 15-Nov-14 South Carolina Florida 66.5%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
13 22-Nov-14 Missouri Tennessee 38.8%
13 22-Nov-14 Ole Miss Arkansas 96.7%
13 22-Nov-14 Vanderbilt Mississippi State 1.4%
Week Date Road Home Road Team's %Chance
14 27-Nov-14 LSU Texas A&M 80.9%
14 28-Nov-14 Arkansas Missouri 21.6%
14 29-Nov-14 Auburn Alabama 31.7%
14 29-Nov-14 Mississippi State Ole Miss 21.3%
14 29-Nov-14 Tennessee Vanderbilt 97.9%