Updated SEC conference projections through 8 weeks

Our odds of an Ole Miss-Georgia SEC title game got even stronger last week as UGA whipped Arkansas for about three quarters and Ole Miss pasted Tennessee for four. But a pair of other results -- Missouri's strangely dominant win over Florida and Alabama's completely dominant win over Texas A&M -- flipped the script for a few different SEC teams.

First, let's compare the most recent win projections to the original ones from a month or so ago.

Win projections

A month ago, the F/+ ratings had no idea what to do with the SEC West, in which all seven teams were viable, top-30 squads. But LSU has had some wobbly moments since then, and Texas A&M and Arkansas have collapsed to varying degrees. A&M has done so with velocity, while Arkansas' has been more of a slow fade. Regardless, "SEVEN HEAVYWEIGHTS!!!" has turned more into four, maybe 4.5. It's still a great division, still perhaps the best ever, but not seven deep.

Odds of SEC conference records

Fortunes changed pretty dramatically for four teams. Florida looked so bad against Missouri that the Gators fell from 44th to 58th in the F/+ rankings (Missouri rose from 48th to 36th), and A&M looked sooooo baaaaaad against Alabama that the Aggies fell from 36th to 59th (Alabama rose from 10th to third). Those teams' win expectations shifted accordingly, and Missouri got a double-shift of sorts -- the Tigers' odds of beating A&M in College Station increased dramatically (and too much for my own comfort level). Hell, their odds of beating Arkansas, Kentucky, and Tennessee all improved as well.

So Missouri, with a bottom-30 offense, now has a decent chance of going 6-2 in conference. Having actually watched Mizzou's last four games, I can't imagine that it actually happens, but it's on the table. That's what awesome defense and special teams can do for you, I guess.

EAST
Major contenders: Georgia
Minor contenders: Missouri

But yeah, Georgia's still the favorite here. Missouri could technically match the Dawgs at 6-2 or 7-1, but even then, the Tiger would have to surpass the Dawgs since Georgia own the tie-breaker. Not bloody likely.

WEST
Serious contenders: Ole Miss
Minor contenders: Mississippi State, Alabama

Alabama's fantastic performance against A&M, plus a favorable remaining schedule (both Mississippi State and Auburn have to come to Tuscaloosa), now give the Tide a solid chance of finishing 7-1. The problem is that Ole Miss, which owns the tie-breaker, has a 90.2 percent chance of finishing 7-1 or better. (That's how well the Rebels have been playing of late.) So barring a pretty significant upset, the Tide are out. That means that, even if MSU loses at Alabama, we're probably looking at a winner-take-all Egg Bowl in Oxford. Batten down the hatches.

Sure bets

Here are the remaining in-conference win probabilities, broken into ranges.

70+% games: Missouri 4, Ole Miss 4, Mississippi State 3, Alabama 2, Auburn 2, Georgia 2, LSU 2, Tennessee 2, Florida 1.

Slog Level Delta

Here are the odds of a division champion finishing with a particular record:

No slog here.

All Projections