clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

2017 North Carolina advanced statistical profile

Updated on 1/3/18

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

Back to the index page.

Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.

2015 | 2016 | 2017

North Carolina Tar Heels (ACC Coastal)

2017 Schedule & Results
Record: 3-9 | Second-order wins (diff.): 3.5 (0.5) | S&P+ Rk: 94
Date Opponent Opp. S&P+ Rk Score W-L Win
Expectancy
Adj. Scoring
Margin
Percentile
Performance
Off.
Percentile
Def.
Percentile
2-Sep California 87 30-35 L 40% -2.3 44% 68% 28%
9-Sep Louisville 16 35-47 L 7% -13.9 24% 65% 20%
16-Sep at Old Dominion 115 53-23 W 100% 34.1 91% 95% 84%
23-Sep Duke 65 17-27 L 49% -0.3 50% 29% 71%
30-Sep at Georgia Tech 73 7-33 L 0% -34.8 6% 8% 18%
7-Oct Notre Dame 13 10-33 L 0% -28.9 10% 8% 30%
14-Oct Virginia 85 14-20 L 6% -14.4 20% 14% 56%
21-Oct at Virginia Tech 29 7-59 L 0% -26.6 12% 9% 42%
28-Oct Miami-FL 17 19-24 L 40% -2.4 46% 38% 54%
9-Nov at Pittsburgh 82 34-31 W 1% -20.1 14% 38% 23%
18-Nov Western Carolina N/A 65-10 W 100% 37.5 92% 97% 73%
25-Nov at NC State 38 21-33 L 2% -18.5 18% 33% 18%
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
S&P+ 26.7 83 30.7 91
Points Per Game 26.0 93 31.3 84
Five Factors
Offense Defense
Category Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
EFFICIENCY Success Rate 39.5% 96 43.5% 89 40.3%
EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP 1.15 70 1.18 69 1.17
FIELD POSITION Avg. FP 28.6 93 29.8 71 29.6
FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Trip in 40 4.44 70 4.34 56 4.42
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED 2.0 46 Turnover Luck (PPG):
-3.35
ACTUAL -6 102
Rushing
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Rushing S&P+ 98.9 74 96.7 75 100.0
Rushing Success Rate 40.8% 85 47.1% 106 42.2%
Rushing IsoPPP 0.91 61 0.95 84 0.92
Adj. Line Yards 94 101 99 64 100.0
Opportunity Rate 38.6% 66 39.9% 89 38.5%
Power Success Rate 75.0% 23 73.5% 102 67.7%
Stuff Rate 19.6% 67 19.1% 67 19.3%

Individual Rushing Stats

Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Fumbles
(Lost)
Jordon Brown TB 5'10, 195 SO 138 613 4 4.4 4.7 35.5% 1 (1)
Michael Carter TB 5'9, 195 FR 97 558 8 5.8 6.5 36.1% 1 (1)
Chazz Surratt QB 6'3, 215 FR 71 328 5 4.6 7.2 38.0% 7 (2)
Nathan Elliott QB 6'1, 215 SO 38 193 0 5.1 3.6 44.7% 0 (0)
Brandon Harris QB 6'3, 220 SR 27 153 0 5.7 3.8 48.1% 2 (0)
Johnathon Sutton TB 6'0, 230 SO 14 81 0 5.8 3.6 50.0% 0 (0)
Dazz Newsome WR 5'11, 175 FR 8 52 0 6.5 3.8 62.5% 0 (0)
Manny Miles QB 6'0, 215 JR 1 3 0 3.0 0.0 0.0% 0 (0)
Anthony Ratliff-Williams WR 6'1, 205 SO 1 1 0 1.0 0.0 0.0% 0 (0)
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Passing
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Passing S&P+ 99.0 70 95.6 84 100.0
Passing Success Rate 38.5% 91 39.0% 52 40.3%
Passing IsoPPP 1.38 89 1.52 87 1.48
Adj. Sack Rate 100.6 70 100.7 69 100

Individual Passing Stats

Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Chazz Surratt 6'3, 215 FR 107 183 1342 8 3 58.5% 14 7.1% 6.2
Nathan Elliott 6'1, 215 SO 75 146 926 10 5 51.4% 9 5.8% 5.6
Brandon Harris 6'3, 220 SR 35 71 346 1 8 49.3% 7 9.0% 3.6
Manny Miles 6'0, 215 JR 1 1 5 0 0 100.0% 0 0.0% 5.0

Individual Receiving Stats

Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate Success Rate Target
Rate
Anthony Ratliff-Williams WR 6'1, 205 SO 64 35 630 6 18.0 9.8 54.7% 48.4% 16.9%
Jordan Cunningham WR 6'2, 190 SR 43 26 308 1 11.9 7.2 60.5% 48.8% 11.3%
Brandon Fritts TE 6'4, 250 JR 41 25 177 4 7.1 4.3 61.0% 41.5% 10.8%
Jordon Brown TB 5'10, 195 SO 37 29 237 0 8.2 6.4 78.4% 51.4% 9.8%
Austin Proehl WR 5'10, 185 SR 32 21 337 1 16.1 10.5 65.6% 62.5% 8.4%
Dazz Newsome WR 5'11, 175 FR 31 18 227 0 12.6 7.3 58.1% 45.2% 8.2%
Josh Cabrera WR 6'3, 205 JR 20 11 113 3 10.3 5.7 55.0% 20.0% 5.3%
Beau Corrales WR 6'4, 205 FR 19 9 143 3 15.9 7.5 47.4% 42.1% 5.0%
Roscoe Johnson WR 6'1, 190 FR 18 9 90 0 10.0 5.0 50.0% 27.8% 4.7%
Michael Carter TB 5'9, 195 FR 17 11 100 1 9.1 5.9 64.7% 41.2% 4.5%
Thomas Jackson WR 5'11, 200 JR 13 7 97 2 13.9 7.5 53.8% 53.8% 3.4%
Juval Mollette WR 6'4, 200 SO 12 2 19 0 9.5 1.6 16.7% 16.7% 3.2%
Jake Bargas TE 6'4, 245 SO 11 8 72 0 9.0 6.6 72.7% 36.4% 2.9%
Carl Tucker TE 6'2, 255 SO 7 6 100 0 16.7 14.3 85.7% 85.7% 1.8%
Devin Perry WR 6'2, 200 JR 4 1 16 0 16.0 4.0 25.0% 25.0% 1.1%
Rontavius Groves WR 5'11, 175 FR 3 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.8%
Standard Downs
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Standard Downs S&P+ 98.8 73 96.8 80 100.0
Standard Downs Success Rate 44.1% 102 47.9% 85 46.5%
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.09 49 1.07 75 1.07
SD Line Yards per Carry 2.53 118 3.00 76 2.92
SD Sack Rate 3.4% 27 4.9% 71 5.3%
Passing Downs
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Passing Downs S&P+ 100.3 70 97.8 77 100.0
Passing Downs Success Rate 30.3% 72 33.8% 103 30.7%
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.34 113 1.53 75 1.53
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.76 13 3.62 101 3.22
PD Sack Rate 10.6% 109 7.7% 63 7.8%
Situational
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk
Q1 S&P+ 88.5 103 103.4 54
Q2 S&P+ 105.6 57 97.4 77
Q3 S&P+ 87.7 112 88.1 106
Q4 S&P+ 113.4 23 94.7 92
1st Down S&P+ 105.3 48 91.6 101
2nd Down S&P+ 98.9 77 101.9 63
3rd Down S&P+ 79.8 125 97.3 79
Offensive Footprint
Team Rk Nat'l Average
Std. Downs Run Rate 54.8% 88 60.0%
Pass Downs Run Rate 29.4% 97 35.3%
Adj. Pace -2.1 24 +0.0
% of Solo Tackles 71.9% 85 73.8%
Defensive Footprint
Team Rk Nat'l Average
Std. Downs Run Rate 63.8% 27 59.9%
Pass. Downs Run Rate 38.1% 37 35.0%
Overall Havoc Rate 15.9% 62 16.0%
DL Havoc Rate 6.8% 25 4.9%
LB Havoc Rate 2.4% 114 4.4%
DB Havoc Rate 6.7% 61 6.5%
PD to INC 36.4% 39 33.9%
Individual Defensive Stats
Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles TFL (Sacks) Run Stuffs* Int (PBU) FF Succ. Rate**
Cayson Collins LB 6'1, 230 SR 67.5 4.5 (2) 8 0 (1) 2 43.6%
Cole Holcomb LB 6'1, 225 JR 67.0 2.5 (0.5) 5 0 (3) 0 45.2%
Myles Dorn S 6'2, 210 SO 52.5 2.5 (0) 7 2 (5) 1 62.0%
J.K. Britt S 6'0, 200 JR 43.5 1.5 (0) 2 1 (1) 1 68.1%
Malik Carney DE 6'3, 235 JR 41.5 12 (5.5) 12 0 (2) 2 26.3%
M.J. Stewart CB 6'0, 205 SR 39.0 5 (2) 2 0 (12) 0 55.8%
Donnie Miles S 5'11, 210 SR 30.5 0.5 (0) 5 1 (1) 1 66.7%
Jonathan Smith LB 6'1, 230 SO 29.5 4 (0) 5 0 (1) 0 41.0%
Myles Wolfolk S 6'0, 200 FR 28.0 1 (0) 2 2 (2) 1 51.9%
Dajaun Drennon DE 6'4, 245 SR 27.5 4 (0.5) 11 0 (0) 0 27.3%
K.J. Sails CB 5'11, 175 SO 26.0 1 (0) 1 0 (13) 0 83.3%
Jeremiah Clarke DT 6'5, 315 JR 23.5 4.5 (0.5) 8 0 (1) 0 31.3%
Jason Strowbridge DL 6'4, 270 SO 23.0 5.5 (1) 5 0 (1) 1 20.6%
Jalen Dalton DT 6'6, 295 JR 21.5 8 (3) 9 0 (3) 0 32.1%
Aaron Crawford DT 6'1, 310 SO 20.5 5 (3) 4 0 (0) 0 17.2%
Ayden Bonilla LB 6'2, 225 JR 20.5 0.5 (0) 2 0 (0) 0 56.0%
Patrice Rene CB 6'2, 205 SO 19.0 2 (0) 3 0 (1) 0 68.2%
Tomon Fox DE 6'3, 245 FR 18.0 4 (4) 2 0 (1) 1 20.0%
Andre Smith LB 6'0, 240 JR 15.5 0.5 (0) 3 1 (1) 0 57.1%
Allen Artis S 6'1, 215 SR 9.0 0 (0) 0 0 (0) 0 80.0%
Allen Cater DE 6'4, 250 SO 7.5 1 (0) 2 0 (1) 1 18.2%
Hunter Crafford LB 6'2, 230 SR 7.5 0.5 (0) 2 0 (0) 0 20.0%
Tre Shaw CB 6'0, 190 FR 7.5 0 (0) 1 0 (0) 0 66.7%
Tyrone Hopper DL 6'4, 235 FR 6.5 1 (1) 1 0 (1) 1 25.0%
Dominique Ross LB 6'3, 210 SO 6.0 0.5 (0) 1 0 (0) 0 33.3%

* Stuffs are rushes stopped at or behind the line. They are not necessarily tackles for loss (since they include zero-yard gains), so adding sacks and stuffs won't necessarily equal TFLs. Also: the figure is based on how many stuffs a tackler has taken part in -- solo tackles and assist tackles count for the same amount.

** For defenders, Success Rate is defined as the offense's success rate on plays in which the defender made a tackle. The lower the number, the better for the defender. On average, due to proximity to the line of scrimmage, defensive linemen will produce lower success rates than linebackers, who producer lower rates than defensive backs.

Special Teams

Rating Rank
Special Teams S&P+ 0.4 33
Category Rate Rank
FG Value (per kick) -0.04 77
Punt Success Rate 69.0% 21
Kickoff Success Rate 88.1% 13
Punt Return Success Rate 57.1% 36
Kick Return Success Rate 39.5% 89
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
Freeman Jones 6'0, 210 JR 37-38 9-14 64.3%
Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Tom Sheldon 6'3, 205 SO 45 45.8 2 18 13 68.9%
Hunter Lent 6'5, 230 JR 25 44.9 0 6 9 60.0%
Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
Freeman Jones 6'0, 210 JR 59 63.9 30 50.8% 1 1 3 0
Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
M.J. Stewart 6'0, 205 SR 15 11.3 0 11 0 (0)
Austin Proehl 5'10, 185 SR 5 9.8 0 8 1 (1)
Rontavius Groves 5'11, 175 FR 1 7.0 0 1 0 (0)
Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Anthony Ratliff-Williams 6'1, 205 SO 34 26.3 2 0 0 (0)
Allen Cater 6'4, 250 SO 3 10.3 0 0 0 (0)
M.J. Stewart 6'0, 205 SR 2 18.0 0 0 0 (0)
Tackler Pos Ht, Wt Year ST Tackles PR Avg KR Avg
J.K. Britt S 6'0, 200 JR 5.5 7.0 15.8
Cayson Collins LB 6'1, 230 SR 5.0 15.8
Tre Shaw CB 6'0, 190 FR 4.5 1.5 21.0
Allen Artis S 6'1, 215 SR 4.5 14.5 19.0
Hunter Crafford LB 6'2, 230 SR 4.0 12.7 12.0

Stats via SportSource Analytics