The 1970s were defined by bluebloods, and to be sure, that was the case with 1979.
The top four in the year-end AP poll were Alabama, USC, Oklahoma, and Ohio State. Recent national champion Pitt was seventh, Arkansas eighth, Nebraska ninth, and Washington and Texas were both in the top 12. All sensible.
But there was weird stuff going on beneath the surface.
I seem to refer to those in the 99th percentile as "truly elite," or something close to that, in this series. Using that term, there were no "truly elite" teams in 1979. Only one topped 98 percent, and only three topped 97. When I first cranked out these ratings and saw that the 1980 season in particular had tons of elite teams, I feared there was some sort of long-tail effect coming from the fact that there were so many teams involved (there was no Division 1-AA yet). But 1979 was the antidote to that worry.
LaVell Edwards' first truly awesome team at BYU was awfully strong. The Cougars went 11-1, beating Texas A&M in Houston to start the year and crushing all other regular season opponents by an average of 43-11. A crazy Holiday Bowl loss to Indiana dampens their case here, but they didn't only dominate because they were in a weak conference. They were also really good.
Of course, since we've worked backwards through the 1980s, you probably weren't that surprised to see BYU in the top 10 below. Your eye instead may have settled on No. 5: Wayne Hardin's Temple Owls. Another weak-SOS all-star, the Owls were still impressive. Maybe not TOP-FIVE impressive, but their only losses were to Pitt (No. 11 in Est. S&P+) by one point and at Penn State (No. 10). They crushed West Virginia (No. 71) in Morgantown and beat Syracuse (No. 36) 49-17 in Philadelphia, and unlike BYU, they came to play in their bowl game, handling California (No. 25), 28-17. That was an awfully good team.
The rankings contain plenty of other interesting teams as you scroll down. Central Michigan was 23rd, Utah State 30th, McNeese State 34th, UT-Arlington 40th. (At this point, McNeese wasn't particularly unusual -- the Cowboys were between 60th and 71st three times between 1975-78 and were 42nd or better each year from 1979-81.)
Still, this season was defined by the big boys. John Robinson's USC Trojans beat LSU, Notre Dame, Washington, and Ohio State. Alabama beat all but one team (Auburn) by double digits. Oklahoma lost to Texas but beat Nebraska and Florida State. Nebraska started 10-0 with mostly dominant wins before losing to OU and Houston by a combined six points. Texas beat Missouri, Oklahoma, Houston, Baylor and Washington and lost only to Arkansas. This would have been a hell of a playoff race.
| S&P+ Rk | Team | Record | Est S&P+ | Percentile | Off. S&P+ | Rk | Def. S&P+ | Rk |
| 1 | USC | 11-0-1 | 21.0 | 98.48% | 33.9 | 3 | 12.9 | 18 |
| 2 | Alabama | 12-0 | 19.8 | 97.93% | 28.6 | 12 | 8.8 | 3 |
| 3 | BYU | 11-1 | 18.7 | 97.33% | 36.5 | 1 | 17.8 | 48 |
| 4 | Nebraska | 10-2 | 18.3 | 97.03% | 30.5 | 7 | 12.2 | 12 |
| 5 | Temple | 10-2 | 17.8 | 96.64% | 34.1 | 2 | 16.4 | 39 |
| 6 | Oklahoma | 11-1 | 17.6 | 96.48% | 31.8 | 5 | 14.2 | 30 |
| 7 | Texas | 9-3 | 17.0 | 96.02% | 22.0 | 53 | 5.0 | 1 |
| 8 | Ohio State | 11-1 | 16.8 | 95.82% | 29.9 | 8 | 13.1 | 22 |
| 9 | Arkansas | 10-2 | 16.7 | 95.74% | 25.7 | 26 | 9.0 | 4 |
| 10 | Penn State | 8-4 | 16.3 | 95.38% | 26.2 | 21 | 9.9 | 7 |
| 11 | Pittsburgh | 11-1 | 15.7 | 94.71% | 24.8 | 32 | 9.1 | 5 |
| 12 | North Carolina | 8-3-1 | 15.5 | 94.48% | 26.8 | 17 | 11.3 | 11 |
| 13 | Florida State | 11-1 | 14.8 | 93.59% | 27.6 | 15 | 12.9 | 19 |
| 14 | Texas A&M | 6-5 | 14.7 | 93.47% | 25.6 | 27 | 10.9 | 9 |
| 15 | Houston | 11-1 | 14.6 | 93.37% | 25.2 | 29 | 10.6 | 8 |
| 16 | Washington | 9-3 | 13.8 | 92.25% | 26.7 | 18 | 12.9 | 20 |
| 17 | Clemson | 8-4 | 13.4 | 91.58% | 20.0 | 70 | 6.6 | 2 |
| 18 | NC State | 7-4 | 13.1 | 91.13% | 28.0 | 13 | 14.9 | 34 |
| 19 | Michigan | 8-4 | 11.5 | 88.18% | 25.0 | 31 | 13.5 | 25 |
| 20 | Baylor | 8-4 | 11.4 | 87.96% | 24.2 | 38 | 12.8 | 17 |
| 21 | LSU | 7-5 | 10.9 | 86.93% | 23.2 | 47 | 12.3 | 13 |
| 22 | Maryland | 7-4 | 10.7 | 86.56% | 20.5 | 66 | 9.7 | 6 |
| 23 | South Carolina | 8-4 | 10.2 | 85.32% | 23.9 | 41 | 13.7 | 26 |
| 24 | Central Michigan | 10-0-1 | 9.8 | 84.42% | 24.2 | 39 | 14.4 | 32 |
| 25 | California | 6-6 | 9.6 | 83.78% | 23.6 | 45 | 14.0 | 29 |
| S&P+ Rk | Team | Record | Est S&P+ | Percentile | Off. S&P+ | Rk | Def. S&P+ | Rk |
| 26 | Auburn | 8-3 | 9.2 | 82.78% | 30.5 | 6 | 21.3 | 79 |
| 27 | Notre Dame | 7-4 | 9.1 | 82.55% | 24.5 | 34 | 15.5 | 35 |
| 28 | Tennessee | 7-5 | 9.1 | 82.48% | 27.3 | 16 | 18.2 | 51 |
| 29 | UCLA | 5-6 | 8.8 | 81.83% | 27.8 | 14 | 18.9 | 60 |
| 30 | Utah State | 7-3-1 | 8.2 | 80.07% | 32.8 | 4 | 24.6 | 110 |
| 31 | Missouri | 7-5 | 7.9 | 79.17% | 21.7 | 56 | 13.8 | 28 |
| 32 | Southern Miss | 6-4-1 | 7.5 | 77.99% | 20.7 | 65 | 13.2 | 23 |
| 33 | East Carolina | 7-3-1 | 7.4 | 77.57% | 29.8 | 9 | 22.4 | 93 |
| 34 | McNeese State | 11-1 | 7.3 | 77.37% | 19.7 | 71 | 12.5 | 14 |
| 35 | Wake Forest | 8-4 | 6.7 | 75.38% | 25.1 | 30 | 18.5 | 54 |
| 36 | Syracuse | 7-5 | 6.4 | 74.49% | 29.0 | 10 | 22.6 | 96 |
| 37 | Tulane | 9-3 | 6.3 | 74.06% | 23.8 | 42 | 17.6 | 46 |
| 38 | Rutgers | 8-3 | 6.3 | 74.06% | 22.5 | 50 | 16.2 | 36 |
| 39 | Arizona State | 6-6 | 6.1 | 73.57% | 24.5 | 35 | 18.4 | 52 |
| 40 | UT-Arlington | 8-3 | 5.9 | 72.79% | 25.8 | 25 | 19.9 | 68 |
| 41 | Virginia | 6-5 | 5.8 | 72.36% | 18.5 | 80 | 12.8 | 16 |
| 42 | Indiana | 8-4 | 5.2 | 70.55% | 26.2 | 20 | 21.0 | 75 |
| 43 | Purdue | 10-2 | 5.0 | 69.85% | 23.9 | 40 | 18.9 | 57 |
| 44 | Miami-OH | 6-5 | 4.6 | 68.18% | 18.9 | 74 | 14.3 | 31 |
| 45 | Texas Tech | 3-6-2 | 3.8 | 65.07% | 16.5 | 95 | 12.8 | 15 |
| 46 | Minnesota | 4-6-1 | 3.6 | 64.47% | 26.2 | 22 | 22.6 | 95 |
| 47 | Iowa | 5-6 | 3.6 | 64.34% | 22.5 | 51 | 18.9 | 59 |
| 48 | Mississippi State | 3-8 | 3.5 | 64.24% | 17.2 | 91 | 13.7 | 27 |
| 49 | Georgia | 6-5 | 3.1 | 62.52% | 19.5 | 72 | 16.4 | 40 |
| 50 | Lamar | 6-3-2 | 3.0 | 62.26% | 21.8 | 55 | 18.7 | 56 |
| S&P+ Rk | Team | Record | Est S&P+ | Percentile | Off. S&P+ | Rk | Def. S&P+ | Rk |
| 51 | Cornell | 5-4 | 2.6 | 60.50% | 23.6 | 44 | 21.0 | 76 |
| 52 | Brown | 6-3 | 2.5 | 60.06% | 18.8 | 75 | 16.4 | 38 |
| 53 | Kentucky | 5-6 | 2.4 | 59.84% | 15.8 | 99 | 13.4 | 24 |
| 54 | Utah | 6-6 | 2.3 | 59.46% | 24.7 | 33 | 22.3 | 91 |
| 55 | Yale | 8-1 | 2.2 | 58.93% | 17.0 | 92 | 14.8 | 33 |
| 56 | Oklahoma State | 7-4 | 2.0 | 58.26% | 19.3 | 73 | 17.3 | 45 |
| 57 | Miami-FL | 5-6 | 2.0 | 58.15% | 20.9 | 62 | 18.9 | 58 |
| 58 | SMU | 5-6 | 1.8 | 57.55% | 21.9 | 54 | 20.1 | 70 |
| 59 | Hawaii | 6-5 | 1.8 | 57.40% | 24.4 | 37 | 22.6 | 98 |
| 60 | Arizona | 6-5-1 | 1.5 | 56.32% | 21.1 | 60 | 19.5 | 66 |
| 61 | Western Michigan | 6-5 | 1.5 | 56.21% | 14.5 | 113 | 13.0 | 21 |
| 62 | Stanford | 5-5-1 | 1.5 | 55.97% | 23.4 | 46 | 21.9 | 86 |
| 63 | Ball State | 6-5 | 1.3 | 55.27% | 22.6 | 49 | 21.3 | 80 |
| 64 | San Diego State | 8-3 | 0.8 | 53.30% | 26.0 | 23 | 25.2 | 115 |
| 65 | West Texas A&M | 6-4-1 | 0.8 | 53.13% | 20.1 | 69 | 19.3 | 65 |
| 66 | Michigan State | 5-6 | 0.6 | 52.49% | 22.7 | 48 | 22.1 | 89 |
| 67 | Ole Miss | 4-7 | 0.5 | 52.18% | 25.3 | 28 | 24.7 | 111 |
| 68 | UT-Chattanooga | 5-1 | 0.3 | 51.38% | 23.7 | 43 | 23.4 | 104 |
| 69 | Virginia Tech | 5-6 | 0.2 | 50.89% | 20.4 | 68 | 20.2 | 72 |
| 70 | Toledo | 7-3-1 | 0.2 | 50.65% | 18.4 | 82 | 18.2 | 50 |
| 71 | West Virginia | 5-6 | -0.5 | 48.04% | 20.9 | 63 | 21.3 | 81 |
| 72 | Ohio | 6-5 | -0.8 | 46.67% | 18.3 | 84 | 19.1 | 64 |
| 73 | TCU | 2-8-1 | -0.9 | 46.16% | 15.5 | 104 | 16.5 | 42 |
| 74 | Princeton | 5-4 | -1.1 | 45.33% | 17.5 | 89 | 18.6 | 55 |
| 75 | Boston College | 5-6 | -1.4 | 44.08% | 18.6 | 78 | 20.0 | 69 |
| S&P+ Rk | Team | Record | Est S&P+ | Percentile | Off. S&P+ | Rk | Def. S&P+ | Rk |
| 76 | San Jose State | 6-4-1 | -1.6 | 43.43% | 28.8 | 11 | 30.4 | 135 |
| 77 | Dartmouth | 4-4-1 | -1.7 | 43.22% | 9.3 | 135 | 11.0 | 10 |
| 78 | Harvard | 3-6 | -1.7 | 43.16% | 17.3 | 90 | 19.0 | 61 |
| 79 | Louisville | 4-6-1 | -2.2 | 41.19% | 15.7 | 102 | 17.8 | 49 |
| 80 | UNLV | 9-1-2 | -2.2 | 41.11% | 26.4 | 19 | 28.5 | 131 |
| 81 | Georgia Tech | 4-6-1 | -2.4 | 40.16% | 14.3 | 114 | 16.7 | 43 |
| 82 | Cincinnati | 2-9 | -2.8 | 38.61% | 18.5 | 81 | 21.3 | 78 |
| 83 | Holy Cross | 5-6 | -3.2 | 37.18% | 13.2 | 121 | 16.4 | 41 |
| 84 | Colorado State | 4-7-1 | -3.4 | 36.30% | 15.7 | 100 | 19.1 | 63 |
| 85 | East Tennessee State | 7-4 | -3.5 | 35.80% | 16.2 | 97 | 19.7 | 67 |
| 86 | Arkansas State | 4-7 | -3.7 | 35.19% | 14.0 | 117 | 17.7 | 47 |
| 87 | Oregon | 6-5 | -3.8 | 34.59% | 16.8 | 93 | 20.6 | 74 |
| 88 | Navy | 7-4 | -4.1 | 33.50% | 13.1 | 123 | 17.2 | 44 |
| 89 | Florida | 0-10-1 | -4.3 | 33.02% | 14.7 | 110 | 19.0 | 62 |
| 90 | Wisconsin | 4-7 | -4.3 | 32.97% | 21.5 | 58 | 25.8 | 119 |
| 91 | Villanova | 5-6 | -4.3 | 32.88% | 17.8 | 86 | 22.1 | 88 |
| 92 | Iowa State | 3-8 | -4.4 | 32.62% | 14.1 | 115 | 18.4 | 53 |
| 93 | Washington State | 3-8 | -4.5 | 32.24% | 25.8 | 24 | 30.3 | 134 |
| 94 | Colorado | 3-8 | -4.6 | 31.65% | 17.8 | 87 | 22.4 | 92 |
| 95 | Bowling Green | 4-7 | -4.7 | 31.55% | 18.5 | 79 | 23.2 | 102 |
| 96 | Kansas | 3-8 | -4.7 | 31.36% | 21.2 | 59 | 25.9 | 121 |
| 97 | Appalachian State | 3-8 | -5.1 | 30.11% | 21.6 | 57 | 26.7 | 122 |
| 98 | UL-Lafayette | 4-7 | -5.1 | 29.83% | 11.1 | 128 | 16.3 | 37 |
| 99 | Northwestern State | 3-6 | -5.2 | 29.63% | 18.8 | 76 | 24.0 | 107 |
| 100 | Duke | 2-8-1 | -5.3 | 29.08% | 16.2 | 96 | 21.6 | 84 |
| S&P+ Rk | Team | Record | Est S&P+ | Percentile | Off. S&P+ | Rk | Def. S&P+ | Rk |
| 101 | Northern Illinois | 5-5-1 | -5.4 | 28.86% | 14.7 | 111 | 20.1 | 71 |
| 102 | Southern Illinois | 8-3 | -5.6 | 28.11% | 16.6 | 94 | 22.3 | 90 |
| 103 | Colgate | 5-4-1 | -5.9 | 27.20% | 15.5 | 105 | 21.3 | 82 |
| 104 | Western Carolina | 6-5 | -6.0 | 26.69% | 18.4 | 83 | 24.4 | 109 |
| 105 | Fresno State | 4-7 | -6.1 | 26.54% | 24.5 | 36 | 30.5 | 137 |
| 106 | New Mexico | 6-6 | -6.5 | 25.30% | 15.1 | 108 | 21.5 | 83 |
| 107 | Furman | 5-6 | -6.7 | 24.37% | 22.0 | 52 | 28.7 | 132 |
| 108 | Illinois | 2-8-1 | -7.2 | 23.01% | 15.6 | 103 | 22.8 | 100 |
| 109 | Rice | 1-10 | -7.2 | 22.86% | 20.9 | 61 | 28.1 | 130 |
| 110 | Indiana State | 8-3 | -7.3 | 22.70% | 20.7 | 64 | 28.0 | 128 |
| 111 | Long Beach State | 7-4 | -7.3 | 22.55% | 18.1 | 85 | 25.4 | 116 |
| 112 | Tulsa | 6-5 | -7.6 | 21.67% | 15.1 | 107 | 22.7 | 99 |
| 113 | Kansas State | 3-8 | -7.8 | 21.04% | 13.3 | 120 | 21.1 | 77 |
| 114 | North Texas | 5-6 | -7.8 | 20.96% | 15.0 | 109 | 22.9 | 101 |
| 115 | Memphis | 5-6 | -8.6 | 18.71% | 13.4 | 119 | 22.0 | 87 |
| 116 | The Citadel | 6-5 | -8.9 | 17.94% | 18.7 | 77 | 27.6 | 127 |
| 117 | Wyoming | 4-8 | -9.2 | 17.17% | 14.6 | 112 | 23.8 | 106 |
| 118 | UL-Monroe | 3-8 | -9.9 | 15.33% | 12.6 | 124 | 22.6 | 94 |
| 119 | Louisiana Tech | 2-9 | -10.4 | 14.22% | 9.9 | 133 | 20.3 | 73 |
| 120 | William & Mary | 4-7 | -10.8 | 13.29% | 10.8 | 131 | 21.6 | 85 |
| 121 | Drake | 3-8 | -11.6 | 11.52% | 14.0 | 116 | 25.7 | 118 |
| 122 | VMI | 6-4-1 | -11.8 | 11.26% | 10.8 | 130 | 22.6 | 97 |
| 123 | Illinois State | 3-8 | -11.8 | 11.15% | 15.7 | 101 | 27.5 | 125 |
| 124 | Connecticut | 3-6-2 | -12.9 | 9.26% | 11.4 | 127 | 24.2 | 108 |
| 125 | Pacific | 3-7 | -12.9 | 9.13% | 10.8 | 129 | 23.8 | 105 |
| S&P+ Rk | Team | Record | Est S&P+ | Percentile | Off. S&P+ | Rk | Def. S&P+ | Rk |
| 126 | Army | 2-8-1 | -13.0 | 9.02% | 11.9 | 126 | 24.8 | 112 |
| 127 | Fullerton State | 3-8 | -13.4 | 8.41% | 12.2 | 125 | 25.5 | 117 |
| 128 | Vanderbilt | 1-10 | -13.5 | 8.20% | 20.5 | 67 | 34.0 | 140 |
| 129 | Oregon State | 1-10 | -14.5 | 6.78% | 17.5 | 88 | 32.0 | 138 |
| 130 | Kent | 1-10 | -14.5 | 6.76% | 13.1 | 122 | 27.6 | 126 |
| 131 | Eastern Michigan | 2-8-1 | -15.1 | 5.96% | 8.2 | 138 | 23.4 | 103 |
| 132 | Pennsylvania | 0-9 | -15.3 | 5.77% | 13.6 | 118 | 28.9 | 133 |
| 133 | Northwestern | 1-10 | -15.3 | 5.71% | 15.1 | 106 | 30.5 | 136 |
| 134 | UTEP | 2-9 | -16.3 | 4.66% | 8.7 | 136 | 25.0 | 113 |
| 135 | Columbia | 1-8 | -16.6 | 4.38% | 8.5 | 137 | 25.1 | 114 |
| 136 | Wichita State | 1-10 | -17.1 | 3.94% | 10.1 | 132 | 27.2 | 124 |
| 137 | New Mexico State | 2-9 | -17.1 | 3.87% | 16.1 | 98 | 33.2 | 139 |
| 138 | Marshall | 1-10 | -17.4 | 3.65% | 9.7 | 134 | 27.0 | 123 |
| 139 | Richmond | 0-11 | -20.1 | 1.93% | 5.8 | 140 | 25.9 | 120 |
| 140 | Air Force | 2-9 | -21.7 | 1.28% | 6.4 | 139 | 28.1 | 129 |
Or maybe it wouldn't have been an interesting Playoff race at all
As always with this look at a hypothetical Playoff, let's start with the end-of-regular-season AP rankings.
1. Ohio State (11-0)
2. Alabama (11-0)
3. USC (10-0-1)
4. Florida State (11-0)
Oh. Well then. I guess that's that.
There was a lot of post-bowl movement in the polls. No. 3 USC beat No. 1 Ohio State by one, and No. 5 Oklahoma thumped No. 4 Florida State, 24-7. I guess maybe you could have made a Playoff case for an Oklahoma (10-1 heading into the bowls) or No. 6 Arkansas (10-1), but while Florida State was certainly still in up-and-comer mode, the Seminoles had womped Arizona State, Mississippi State, and a ranked South Carolina team and had beaten LSU on the road. Amazing SOS, this is not. But I figure it's good enough to get the 'Noles in. (Undefeated No. 9 BYU, however, not so much.)
So we get 1 Ohio State vs. 4 FSU and 2 Alabama vs. 3 USC, and odds slightly favor a USC-Ohio State final. Maybe it would even have been in the Rose Bowl. Regardless, this was one of the easiest Playoff conversations ever.
One other note:
It is impossible to understate how dreadful Northwestern and Oregon State were during this period. Once again, despite tons of chaff, they both show up in the bottom 12 here. Between 1979-83, OSU topped even the 7th percentile just once; between 1978-83, Northwestern topped the 6th once. The Wildcats had been decent as recently as 1971, and the Beavers had finished in the top 15 in 1968. Just a crazy spiral.
Next up: 1978, one of this Missouri fan's favorite seasons.
Loading comments...