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2017 Mississippi State advanced statistical profile

Updated on 1/4/18

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2015 | 2016 | 2017

Mississippi State Bulldogs (SEC West)

2017 Schedule & Results
Record: 9-4 | Second-order wins (diff.): 9.0 (0.0) | S&P+ Rk: 28
Date Opponent Opp. S&P+ Rk Score W-L Win
Expectancy
Adj. Scoring
Margin
Percentile
Performance
Off.
Percentile
Def.
Percentile
2-Sep Charleston Southern N/A 49-0 W 100% 38.1 92% 88% NULL
9-Sep at Louisiana Tech 71 57-21 W 100% 32.4 94% 91% 81%
16-Sep LSU 21 37-7 W 100% 35.6 95% 76% 95%
23-Sep at Georgia 3 3-31 L 0% -33.7 9% 4% 28%
30-Sep at Auburn 10 10-49 L 0% -37.2 7% 10% 9%
14-Oct BYU 101 35-10 W 100% 29.6 91% 78% 93%
21-Oct Kentucky 90 45-7 W 100% 33.3 91% 79% 94%
28-Oct at Texas A&M 61 35-14 W 99% 22.0 87% 61% 86%
4-Nov Massachusetts 84 34-23 W 66% 3.7 59% 40% 69%
11-Nov Alabama 1 24-31 L 6% -14.6 22% 33% 28%
18-Nov at Arkansas 91 28-21 W 87% 10.2 69% 66% 65%
23-Nov Ole Miss 42 28-31 L 54% 1.0 53% 64% 36%
30-Dec vs. Louisville 16 31-27 W 86% 10.0 73% 71% 52%
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
S&P+ 28.5 64 21.4 20
Points Per Game 34.7 40 22.7 26
Five Factors
Offense Defense
Category Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
EFFICIENCY Success Rate 45.5% 21 35.6% 13 40.3%
EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP 0.99 125 1.34 120 1.17
FIELD POSITION Avg. FP 31.1 31 28.5 42 29.6
FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Trip in 40 4.42 72 4.39 62 4.42
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED 2.6 44 Turnover Luck (PPG):
-1.39
ACTUAL -1 71
Rushing
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Rushing S&P+ 115.8 17 122.0 16 100.0
Rushing Success Rate 47.5% 16 39.2% 38 42.2%
Rushing IsoPPP 0.84 88 1.03 112 0.92
Adj. Line Yards 114.3 19 130.1 3 100.0
Opportunity Rate 44.8% 6 38.7% 70 38.5%
Power Success Rate 84.2% 2 67.6% 68 67.7%
Stuff Rate 14.3% 7 22.4% 34 19.3%

Individual Rushing Stats

Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Fumbles
(Lost)
Aeris Williams RB 6'1, 217 JR 236 1107 6 4.7 3.3 40.7% 1 (0)
Nick Fitzgerald QB 6'5, 230 JR 155 1025 14 6.6 5.6 47.1% 2 (0)
Kylin Hill RB 5'11, 212 FR 78 393 2 5.0 3.4 43.6% 1 (0)
Keytaon Thompson QB 6'4, 222 FR 69 481 6 7.0 5.8 49.3% 3 (2)
Nick Gibson RB 5'11, 211 SO 45 239 1 5.3 3.7 53.3% 1 (1)
Dontavian Lee RB 6'1, 235 JR 16 64 1 4.0 1.1 43.8% 0 (0)
Keith Mixon WR 5'8, 187 SO 2 13 0 6.5 3.5 50.0% 1 (1)
Alec Murphy RB 6'0, 230 SO 2 9 0 4.5 1.0 50.0% 0 (0)
Jesse Jackson WR 6'2, 210 JR 2 8 0 4.0 1.5 50.0% 0 (0)
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Passing
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Passing S&P+ 108.0 37 137.0 4 100.0
Passing Success Rate 42.3% 48 31.1% 4 40.3%
Passing IsoPPP 1.26 122 1.83 128 1.48
Adj. Sack Rate 202 7 142 6 100

Individual Passing Stats

Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Nick Fitzgerald 6'5, 230 JR 159 286 1782 15 11 55.6% 7 2.4% 5.9
Keytaon Thompson 6'4, 222 FR 32 66 388 2 2 48.5% 6 8.3% 4.9

Individual Receiving Stats

Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate Success Rate Target
Rate
Donald Gray WR 5'10, 200 SR 44 24 214 3 8.9 4.9 54.5% 45.5% 13.1%
Jordan Thomas TE 6'5, 280 SR 43 22 263 3 12.0 6.1 51.2% 46.5% 12.8%
Deddrick Thomas WR 5'9, 187 SO 43 22 227 4 10.3 5.3 51.2% 37.2% 12.8%
Jesse Jackson WR 6'2, 210 JR 39 27 276 0 10.2 7.1 69.2% 51.3% 11.6%
Reggie Todd WR 6'4, 204 FR 34 14 160 1 11.4 4.7 41.2% 29.4% 10.1%
Keith Mixon WR 5'8, 187 SO 25 18 275 1 15.3 11.0 72.0% 60.0% 7.4%
Jamal Couch WR 6'4, 227 SO 25 10 191 2 19.1 7.6 40.0% 36.0% 7.4%
Aeris Williams RB 6'1, 217 JR 22 16 142 0 8.9 6.5 72.7% 45.5% 6.5%
Farrod Green TE 6'3, 246 SO 18 9 174 0 19.3 9.7 50.0% 38.9% 5.3%
Gabe Myles WR 6'0, 195 SR 16 9 90 2 10.0 5.6 56.2% 37.5% 4.7%
Justin Johnson TE 6'3, 247 JR 11 8 44 1 5.5 4.0 72.7% 54.5% 3.3%
Osirus Mitchell WR 6'4, 207 FR 6 5 51 0 10.2 8.5 83.3% 66.7% 1.8%
Kylin Hill RB 5'11, 212 FR 5 4 38 0 9.5 7.6 80.0% 20.0% 1.5%
Nick Gibson RB 5'11, 211 SO 5 3 25 0 8.3 5.0 60.0% 40.0% 1.5%
Chris Rayford DB 6'0, 202 JR 1 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
Standard Downs
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Standard Downs S&P+ 112.6 21 127.4 7 100.0
Standard Downs Success Rate 50.7% 23 39.9% 9 46.5%
Standard Downs IsoPPP 0.92 119 1.19 115 1.07
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.41 7 2.42 15 2.92
SD Sack Rate 3.0% 20 11.6% 2 5.3%
Passing Downs
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Passing Downs S&P+ 104.0 60 123.9 14 100.0
Passing Downs Success Rate 31.6% 55 26.7% 26 30.7%
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.31 116 1.82 125 1.53
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.57 29 3.49 94 3.22
PD Sack Rate 4.1% 17 10.0% 21 7.8%
Situational
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk
Q1 S&P+ 119.9 26 127.9 14
Q2 S&P+ 99.0 79 137.0 7
Q3 S&P+ 114.6 34 113.7 26
Q4 S&P+ 108.5 41 107.4 33
1st Down S&P+ 105.2 49 132.7 6
2nd Down S&P+ 110.5 37 114.6 28
3rd Down S&P+ 115.5 30 106.8 41
Offensive Footprint
Team Rk Nat'l Average
Std. Downs Run Rate 69.8% 21 60.0%
Pass Downs Run Rate 41.1% 27 35.3%
Adj. Pace -0.7 48 +0.0
% of Solo Tackles 58.3% 129 73.8%
Defensive Footprint
Team Rk Nat'l Average
Std. Downs Run Rate 62.2% 39 59.9%
Pass. Downs Run Rate 41.2% 13 35.0%
Overall Havoc Rate 20.8% 7 16.0%
DL Havoc Rate 7.6% 11 4.9%
LB Havoc Rate 5.0% 45 4.4%
DB Havoc Rate 8.2% 16 6.5%
PD to INC 37.7% 24 33.9%
Individual Defensive Stats
Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles TFL (Sacks) Run Stuffs* Int (PBU) FF Succ. Rate**
Mark McLaurin DB 6'2, 215 JR 57.5 3.5 (1.5) 8 6 (6) 1 64.6%
Johnathan Abram DB 6'0, 210 JR 57.0 5 (2) 6 0 (5) 2 58.8%
J.T. Gray DB 6'0, 202 SR 43.5 3 (1.5) 5 1 (8) 1 43.6%
Jeffery Simmons DL 6'4, 301 SO 40.5 12 (5) 14 0 (1) 2 16.7%
Dezmond Harris LB 6'4, 243 SR 36.5 3 (2) 2 0 (0) 1 38.2%
Montez Sweat DL 6'6, 241 JR 34.5 15.5 (10.5) 9 0 (0) 0 16.7%
Erroll Thompson LB 6'1, 250 FR 33.5 5.5 (2.5) 4 0 (1) 1 23.9%
Leo Lewis LB 6'2, 235 SO 30.5 1 (1) 3 0 (1) 1 37.0%
Gerri Green LB 6'4, 245 JR 25.5 11 (5) 13 1 (3) 3 21.1%
Brandon Bryant DB 6'0, 215 JR 22.5 0.5 (0) 1 1 (2) 0 58.1%
Cameron Dantzler DB 6'2, 175 FR 20.0 2 (0) 2 1 (3) 0 66.7%
Fletcher Adams DL 6'2, 270 SO 17.5 3.5 (0.5) 10 0 (1) 1 24.1%
Willie Gay Jr. LB 6'2, 230 FR 15.5 2 (1) 6 0 (2) 1 38.5%
Jamal Peters DB 6'2, 218 JR 15.5 0 (0) 1 1 (2) 0 57.9%
Tolando Cleveland DB 6'0, 194 SR 13.5 0 (0) 0 0 (3) 0 70.6%
Kobe Jones DL 6'4, 275 FR 13.0 4.5 (1) 7 0 (0) 1 16.7%
Braxton Hoyett DL 6'3, 303 JR 13.0 2.5 (0.5) 3 1 (0) 0 28.6%
Marquiss Spencer DL 6'4, 271 SO 12.0 4.5 (1) 8 0 (2) 0 21.1%
Tre Brown DL 6'4, 305 JR 11.5 2.5 (0) 6 0 (0) 1 18.8%
Chris Rayford DB 6'0, 202 JR 11.0 1 (0) 1 0 (0) 0 55.6%
Grant Harris DL 6'3, 285 JR 9.5 1 (1) 1 0 (0) 0 28.6%
Lashard Durr DB 5'11, 195 SR 8.5 0 (0) 0 1 (3) 0 80.0%
Cory Thomas DL 6'5, 303 JR 8.0 0 (0) 2 0 (1) 1 16.7%
C.J. Morgan DB 6'0, 202 FR 4.5 0 (0) 0 0 (0) 0 60.0%
Maurice Smitherman DB 5'10, 190 SO 4.5 0 (0) 1 0 (0) 0 16.7%

* Stuffs are rushes stopped at or behind the line. They are not necessarily tackles for loss (since they include zero-yard gains), so adding sacks and stuffs won't necessarily equal TFLs. Also: the figure is based on how many stuffs a tackler has taken part in -- solo tackles and assist tackles count for the same amount.

** For defenders, Success Rate is defined as the offense's success rate on plays in which the defender made a tackle. The lower the number, the better for the defender. On average, due to proximity to the line of scrimmage, defensive linemen will produce lower success rates than linebackers, who producer lower rates than defensive backs.

Special Teams

Rating Rank
Special Teams S&P+ 0.6 16
Category Rate Rank
FG Value (per kick) 0.12 52
Punt Success Rate 61.8% 44
Kickoff Success Rate 92.0% 7
Punt Return Success Rate 52.2% 53
Kick Return Success Rate 55.2% 20
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
Jace Christmann 6'0, 195 FR 42-42 12-14 85.7%
Tucker Day 6'0, 206 FR 8-10 2-4 50.0%
Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Logan Cooke 6'5, 228 SR 52 42.7 5 21 19 76.9%
Kody Schexnayder 5'10, 203 SO 1 28.0 0 0 0 0.0%
Nick Fitzgerald 6'5, 230 JR 1 14.0 0 0 0 0.0%
Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
Logan Cooke 6'5, 228 SR 73 64.2 43 58.9% 0 1 4 1
Tucker Day 6'0, 206 FR 2 65.0 2 100.0% 0 0 0 0
Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Gabe Myles 6'0, 195 SR 8 3.6 0 16 1 (1)
Donald Gray 5'10, 200 SR 7 9.0 0 21 0 (0)
Deddrick Thomas 5'9, 187 SO 6 17.3 1 4 0 (0)
Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Reggie Todd 6'4, 204 FR 15 18.5 0 0 0 (0)
Deddrick Thomas 5'9, 187 SO 6 21.5 0 0 0 (0)
Keith Mixon 5'8, 187 SO 5 17.8 0 0 1 (1)
Tackler Pos Ht, Wt Year ST Tackles PR Avg KR Avg
J.T. Gray DB 6'0, 202 SR 6.0 3.0 17.1
Cameron Dantzler DB 6'2, 175 FR 5.5 5.0 16.5
Dontavian Lee RB 6'1, 235 JR 3.5 21.2
Chris Rayford DB 6'0, 202 JR 3.0 -2.5 22.3
Jamal Peters DB 6'2, 218 JR 2.5 16.8

Stats via SportSource Analytics