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2016 Ole Miss advanced statistical profile

Updated on 1/13/2017

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2015 | 2016

Ole Miss Rebels (SEC West)

2016 Schedule & Results
Record: 5-7 | Second-order wins (diff.): 6.0 (1.0) | S&P+ Rk: 27
Date Opponent Opp. S&P+ Rk Score W-L Win
Expectancy
Adj. Scoring
Margin
Percentile
Performance
Off.
Percentile
Def.
Percentile
5-Sep vs. Florida State 6 34-45 L 23% -5.8 73% 73% 37%
10-Sep Wofford N/A 38-13 W 100% 21.3 75% 47% 32%
17-Sep Alabama 1 43-48 L 60% 2.0 93% 98% 46%
24-Sep Georgia 68 45-14 W 100% 28.8 96% 99% 83%
1-Oct Memphis 44 48-28 W 97% 15.3 92% 87% 58%
15-Oct at Arkansas 48 30-34 L 70% 4.2 73% 51% 57%
22-Oct at LSU 4 21-38 L 0% -20.4 46% 68% 30%
29-Oct Auburn 13 29-40 L 38% -2.5 75% 88% 35%
5-Nov Georgia Southern 91 37-27 W 88% 9.3 74% 71% 51%
12-Nov at Texas A&M 24 29-28 W 19% -6.9 59% 52% 52%
19-Nov at Vanderbilt 71 17-38 L 0% -21.6 15% 8% 12%
26-Nov Mississippi State 56 20-55 L 0% -23.4 18% 41% 7%
Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
S&P+ 38.7 14 30.1 74
Points Per Game 32.6 42 34.0 100
Five Factors
Offense Defense
Category Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP 1.36 27 1.35 109 1.27
EFFICIENCY Success Rate 43.1% 53 42.5% 62 40.9%
FIELD POSITION Avg. FP 28.8 89 27.7 28 29.7
FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Trip in 40 4.45 75 4.96 108 4.47
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED -3.33 94 Turnover Luck (PPG):
+0.14
ACTUAL -3 84
Rushing
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Rushing S&P+ 104.1 59 99.5 66 100.0
Rushing Success Rate 42.0% 83 43.0% 69 43.1%
Rushing IsoPPP 1.05 65 1.25 121 1.08
Adj. Line Yards 113.6 15 103 58 100.0
Opportunity Rate 39.6% 69 41.3% 89 39.7%
Power Success Rate 56.8% 116 64.7% 45 67.9%
Stuff Rate 19.6% 83 18.6% 70 18.9%

Individual Rushing Stats

Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Fumbles
(Lost)
Akeem Judd RB 5'11, 228 SR 165 826 6 5.0 4.4 37.0% 0 (0)
Chad Kelly QB 6'2, 224 SR 65 425 5 6.5 4.5 53.8% 5 (3)
Eugene Brazley RB 5'9, 192 JR 61 261 2 4.3 4.7 32.8% 0 (0)
Shea Patterson QB 6'2, 200 FR 33 213 0 6.5 4.4 57.6% 3 (1)
Jason Pellerin QB 6'4, 230 FR 28 99 3 3.5 1.6 32.1% 1 (1)
D'Vaughn Pennamon RB 5'11, 218 FR 20 58 1 2.9 3.1 20.0% 0 (0)
D.K. Buford RB 5'11, 227 SO 10 29 0 2.9 1.8 20.0% 0 (0)
Van Jefferson WR 6'2, 187 FR 5 40 0 8.0 7.8 60.0% 1 (0)
Will Gleeson P 6'3, 189 JR 1 14 0 14.0 6.5 100.0% 0 (0)
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Passing
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Passing S&P+ 124.1 14 98.3 71 100.0
Passing Success Rate 44.0% 34 41.7% 71 40.9%
Passing IsoPPP 1.59 29 1.49 76 1.49
Adj. Sack Rate 102 58 85.3 95 100

Individual Passing Stats

Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Chad Kelly 6'2, 224 SR 205 328 2758 19 8 62.5% 16 4.7% 7.7
Shea Patterson 6'2, 200 FR 72 132 880 6 3 54.5% 9 6.4% 5.9
Jason Pellerin 6'4, 230 FR 11 22 104 2 3 50.0% 1 4.3% 4.1

Individual Receiving Stats

Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate Success Rate Target
Rate
Evan Engram TE 6'3, 235 SR 93 65 926 8 14.3 10.0 69.9% 53.8% 20.1%
Damore'ea Stringfellow WR 6'2, 219 JR 81 46 716 6 15.6 8.8 56.8% 51.9% 17.5%
Van Jefferson WR 6'2, 192 FR 75 49 543 3 11.1 7.2 65.3% 50.7% 16.2%
Quincy Adeboyejo WR 6'3, 195 SR 68 35 456 1 13.0 6.7 51.5% 47.1% 14.7%
A.J. Brown WR 6'1, 225 FR 43 29 412 2 14.2 9.6 67.4% 55.8% 9.3%
DaMarkus Lodge WR 6'2, 190 SO 21 15 203 2 13.5 9.7 71.4% 38.1% 4.5%
Akeem Judd RB 5'11, 224 SR 21 15 106 1 7.1 5.1 71.4% 28.6% 4.5%
Eugene Brazley RB 5'9, 192 JR 18 14 114 1 8.1 6.3 77.8% 50.0% 3.9%
Markell Pack WR 6'2, 184 JR 17 11 157 1 14.3 9.2 64.7% 52.9% 3.7%
Taz Zettergren TE 6'3, 218 SR 9 4 79 0 19.8 8.8 44.4% 44.4% 1.9%
Hunter Thurley TE 6'4, 249 SR 4 2 34 0 17.0 8.5 50.0% 50.0% 0.9%
Octavious Cooley TE 6'3, 246 FR 4 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.9%
D.K. Metcalf WR 6'4, 210 FR 3 2 13 2 6.5 4.3 66.7% 66.7% 0.6%
D'Vaughn Pennamon RB 5'11, 223 FR 2 2 20 0 10.0 10.0 100.0% 100.0% 0.4%
Dawson Knox TE 6'4, 243 FR 2 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.4%
Derrick Jones DB 6'2, 188 SR 1 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Standard Downs
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Standard Downs S&P+ 115.8 17 98.5 69 100.0
Standard Downs Success Rate 46.8% 77 46.1% 49 47.3%
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.27 12 1.24 116 1.12
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.01 66 2.89 56 2.98
SD Sack Rate 5.3% 71 2.6% 114 5.1%
Passing Downs
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Nat'l Avg.
Passing Downs S&P+ 113.0 34 99.7 71 100.0
Passing Downs Success Rate 34.9% 28 34.0% 102 31.1%
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.62 108 1.70 50 1.76
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.65 27 3.36 76 3.24
PD Sack Rate 7.6% 59 9.2% 30 7.9%
Situational
Offense Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk
Q1 S&P+ 125.3 18 95.3 83
Q2 S&P+ 120.3 17 99.7 68
Q3 S&P+ 114.3 29 98.2 70
Q4 S&P+ 102.7 60 102.9 56
1st Down S&P+ 118.5 18 106.4 45
2nd Down S&P+ 113.0 28 94.2 92
3rd Down S&P+ 118.8 24 98.8 71
Offensive Footprint
Team Rk Nat'l Average
Std. Downs Run Rate 51.4% 107 60.2%
Pass Downs Run Rate 29.0% 96 34.6%
Adj. Pace +2.4 42 +0.0
% of Solo Tackles 73.2% 77 74.2%
Defensive Footprint
Team Rk Nat'l Average
Std. Downs Run Rate 65.9% 21 60.2%
Pass. Downs Run Rate 41.1% 16 34.5%
Overall Havoc Rate 13.6% 99 15.8%
DL Havoc Rate 5.1% 55 5.0%
LB Havoc Rate 2.4% 119 4.3%
DB Havoc Rate 6.2% 66 6.4%
PD to INC 31.3% 85 33.1%
Individual Defensive Stats
Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF
DeMarquis Gates LB 6'2, 211 JR 59.0 8.1% 5.5 4.0 0 2 1
Zedrick Woods DB 5'11, 203 SO 45.5 6.3% 2.5 0.0 3 3 0
Marquis Haynes DE 6'3, 222 JR 41.0 5.7% 11.0 7.0 1 3 3
Myles Hartsfield DB 5'11, 199 FR 36.0 5.0% 2.0 0.0 0 1 0
A.J. Moore DB 5'11, 199 JR 32.5 4.5% 5.0 0.0 0 1 0
Tony Conner DB 6'0, 213 SR 30.0 4.1% 3.5 0.5 0 5 0
Detric Bing-Dukes LB 6'1, 247 SO 30.0 4.1% 3.0 0.0 0 0 0
Rommel Mageo LB 6'2, 233 SR 30.0 4.1% 1.5 0.0 0 1 0
Tayler Polk LB 5'11, 212 JR 26.5 3.7% 0.5 0.0 0 1 0
Fadol Brown DE 6'4, 268 SR 26.0 3.6% 5.5 2.5 0 0 0
Benito Jones DT 6'2, 308 FR 26.0 3.6% 4.5 0.5 0 0 0
Deontay Anderson DB 6'1, 211 FR 25.0 3.4% 1.5 0.0 1 0 0
Terry Caldwell LB 6'1, 216 SR 23.5 3.2% 0.0 0.0 0 1 1
Carlos Davis DB 5'8, 170 SR 22.0 3.0% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0
Jaylon Jones DB 5'11, 177 FR 21.0 2.9% 0.0 0.0 0 5 1
D.J. Jones DT 6'0, 321 SR 20.5 2.8% 3.0 2.0 1 0 0
Tony Bridges DB 6'0, 185 SR 20.5 2.8% 2.0 0.0 0 4 1
Issac Gross DT 6'1, 263 SR 20.0 2.8% 1.5 0.0 0 0 0
Breeland Speaks DT 6'3, 290 SO 19.5 2.7% 1.5 1.0 0 1 0
Derrick Jones DB 6'2, 188 SR 18.0 2.5% 1.5 0.0 2 3 0
Jalen Julius DB 5'10, 180 FR 18.0 2.5% 1.5 0.5 0 2 0
Ray Ray Smith LB 6'2, 216 JR 15.5 2.1% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0
John Youngblood DE 6'3, 255 SR 14.0 1.9% 1.5 0.0 0 1 0
Temario Strong LB 6'0, 225 SR 13.5 1.9% 2.5 0.0 0 0 0
Garrald McDowell DE 6'2, 261 SO 12.5 1.7% 1.5 1.0 0 0 1
Special Teams

Rating Rank
Special Teams S&P+ 1.1 21
Category Rate Rank
FG Value (per kick) 0.51 11
Punt Success Rate 58.5% 49
Kickoff Success Rate 82.3% 24
Punt Return Success Rate 30.0% 121
Kick Return Success Rate 35.1% 99
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
Gary Wunderlich 6'0, 193 JR 41-43 22-23 95.7%
Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Will Gleeson 6'3, 189 JR 28 44.1 1 12 10 78.6%
Gary Wunderlich 6'0, 193 JR 21 43.7 1 9 2 52.4%
Chad Kelly 6'2, 224 SR 3 43.7 2 0 1 33.3%
Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
Nathan Noble 6'3, 229 SR 78 63.8 32 41.0% 0 2 2 1
Gary Wunderlich 6'0, 193 JR 1 49.0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0
Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Carlos Davis 5'8, 170 SR 6 8.2 0 15 0 (0)
Van Jefferson 6'2, 192 FR 4 2.8 0 10 1 (0)
Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Carlos Davis 5'8, 170 SR 33 22.8 0 0 0 (0)
Kailo Moore 5'10, 194 SR 3 19.7 0 0 0 (0)
Zedrick Woods 5'11, 203 SO 1 26.0 0 0 1 (0)

Stats via SportSource Analytics