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Promotion And Relegation In College Football

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It's Relegation Week at SB Nation! I contributed a seven-year promotion-and-relegation simulation today at the mothership at the link above. It was way too much fun and took up way too much time. Now it's back to Mountain West team previews...

In other news, Adrian Arrington's 2006 was secretly great. And when you combine the catch rates...

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In other news, Adrian Arrington's 2006 was secretly great. And when you combine the catch rates with the yards you have a dead heat between Mario Manningham '06 and Junior Hemingway '11 as the best season in this time frame, with Avant's '05 drawing an honorable mention for moving the chains.

Brian at MGoBlog plays with target data. (Not sure what happened with Sam McGuffie. Will fix.)

In 1935, Alabama's head coach Frank Thomas was featured in Sport Story Magazine where he espoused...

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In 1935, Alabama's head coach Frank Thomas was featured in Sport Story Magazine where he espoused his particular philosophy toward the game (he used the Notre Dame system) and his thoughts on that year's Rose Bowl which had been won by the Crimson Tide. Included in the piece was a pair of diagrammed pass plays that Thomas broke down in some detail, explaining that Alabama's effectiveness in the air had been the key to the 29-13 victory over Stanford. The labeled players are Dixie Howell, Don Hutson and the team's "other end" Paul Bryant. If I am not mistaken, this video shows the play in "Diagram No. 1." It's a fascinating little look back at the X's & O's of the game as it was played three-quarters of a century ago.

San Jose State was nothing if not exciting in 2011. They played in 10 games decided by 10 points or...

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San Jose State was nothing if not exciting in 2011. They played in 10 games decided by 10 points or fewer, and they came within one close loss of bowl eligibility. They have improved in each of head coach Mike McIntyre's first two seasons in San Jose, however, and if they can account for some losses on the offensive line and at quarterback, they could do so again in 2012.

My San Jose State preview is up at the mothership. And evidently I forgot to share yesterday's Idaho preview here, so you've got that one to read, too.

DeWayne Walker took over a mostly hopeless program in 2009, and after a couple of steps backwards,...

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DeWayne Walker took over a mostly hopeless program in 2009, and after a couple of steps backwards, his New Mexico State Aggies took a definitive step forward in 2011. They knocked off Minnesota and Fresno State, and they came within just a few points of their first five-win season since 2004. Walker's regime absolutely made progress in his third year, but now they encounter the downside of the life cycle. They return just eight total starters from last year's 4-9 squad and almost certainly face a bit of a rebuilding season. But can a coach with nine wins in three years survive a down year? There is quite a bit of pressure for New Mexico State to win right now. Not only is the WAC in flux, having recently lost established programs Boise State, Fresno State, Nevada and Hawaii and brought in new blood in Texas State and UTSA, but the entire mid-major universe is in flux right now. With the Mountain West and Conference USA forming a merger and potentially looking to add a few extra members, now would be a very good time to be good at football. And if NMSU cannot maintain 2011's progress, will Walker survive to see year five in Las Cruces?

My New Mexico State preview is up at the mothership.

I am not particularly optimistic about 2012, but one has to be impressed with the moves [new head...

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I am not particularly optimistic about 2012, but one has to be impressed with the moves [new head coach Charley] Molnar has made to date. He has assembled a quality staff, he will likely engineer offensive competence within a year or two, and lord knows he has plenty of ambition and confidence to go around. The future is intriguing for UMass, even if 2012 will be largely forgettable.

My UMass profile is up at the mothership.

In 2006, an average of 41,908 Miami fans attended the Orange Bowl to watch Larry Coker's...

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In 2006, an average of 41,908 Miami fans attended the Orange Bowl to watch Larry Coker's Hurricanes, five years removed from the national title, take on a home slate of ACC squads. On September 3, 2011, 56,743 UT-San Antonio fans filled the AlamoDome to watch their Roadrunners, replete with zero all-time wins, play Northeastern State. One has to wonder how long it took Carr Sports Associates, Inc., to complete the "Will football work at UTSA?" feasibility study it was assigned in 2006. One also has to wonder how much they charged for it.

My UTSA profile is up at the mothership.

Picked clean by the Mountain West, the WAC is certainly a semi-friendly environment for a new...

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Picked clean by the Mountain West, the WAC is certainly a semi-friendly environment for a new program to find success. In their inaugural FBS campaign, Texas State will face an FCS program (Stephen F. Austin, whom they beat by nine last year), fellow FBS newbie UTSA, and four FBS programs projected 107th or worse. If, somehow, the TSU defense is shored up, and if the offense can stay in standard downs, then there are opportunities for wins on the table. Still, one would have to figure Franchione and company would find a 3-9 or 4-8 season rather successful during this first go-round.

Why read my 2012 Texas State football preview? Because a) it's about football, and b) you really need a little more Dennis Franchione (i.e. college football's Dan Monson) in your life again.

There are only three things that matter for evaluating a team on a drive, where did you start, how...

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There are only three things that matter for evaluating a team on a drive, where did you start, how many points did you score and what position did you give the ball back to your defense/special teams. Plays taken to achieve results and time elapsed off of the clock can be valuable in certain situations, but in general those three data points are the key. If we can effectively measure each play in how it contributes to those three key factors at once, why break it up into two pieces and why make it black and white?

The success rate conversation continues back at MGoBlog. And I should point out, as Brett has, that he is, to a degree, meaning this more of a discussion of how coaches use the tool, which is obviously a completely different issue.

You could say it about any sport, actually. The Bruins got hot for a few rounds and won the Cup....

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You could say it about any sport, actually. The Bruins got hot for a few rounds and won the Cup. The Mavericks caught fire and won the NBA title. The Cardinals were on life support, heated up for a couple months and improbably won the World Series. Can you even remember regular seasons meaning this little? Nowadays, you just want to make it to the Final Four — after that, it's all about executing and catching a couple of breaks.

Via Bill Simmons' Super Bowl post-mortem column. A pretty clear (if indirect) endorsement of the smallest college football playoff possible, really.