The fun part is realizing that every fan base in the country has experienced the same ridiculous moments of their own. Granted, each team has had a different mix of happiness and sadness (and not every fan base has had to deal with fifth downs and flea kickers), but every time you are dipped into the world of another team and set of fans, you realize how deep and ridiculously passionate the college football world is.July 12 Q&A
Overall, of the 697 regular season games involving IA opponents in 2012, the point spread differed from the actual result by an average of 12.10 points. While that may intuitively seem high considering the reverence with which the point spread is regarded, keep in mind that the smallest amount the point spread can differ from the actual result is zero, while the largest amount is theoretically infinite (if realistically about 55). Consider that it takes about six reasonably accurate spreads (say a difference of five points) to bring the huge UCLA/Arizona outlier down to the twelve point average.From an interesting look at Vegas vs. college football by the good folks at College Football by the Numbers.
The men who head the sports divisions of ABC and CBS say the networks did not do well financially in their telecasts of NCAA football games last season. "We had the worst year financially in our history for college football," said Jim Spence, president of ABC Sports. CBS Sports President Neal Pilson said the situation was the same for his network. The network officials, meeting in Oregon, blamed the lack of profits on overexposure and too high a price tag for the right to show the games … The Justice Department yesterday urged Supreme Court Justice Byron White not to stay a lower court order which nullified the NCAA's existing television contracts and opened the way for colleges to make their own TV deals.The Miami News, 7/20/1983. Twenty-nine years ago "A bad year for college football" meant something just a little bit different than it does now.
In other news, Adrian Arrington's 2006 was secretly great. And when you combine the catch rates with the yards you have a dead heat between Mario Manningham '06 and Junior Hemingway '11 as the best season in this time frame, with Avant's '05 drawing an honorable mention for moving the chains.Brian at MGoBlog plays with target data. (Not sure what happened with Sam McGuffie. Will fix.)
San Jose State was nothing if not exciting in 2011. They played in 10 games decided by 10 points or fewer, and they came within one close loss of bowl eligibility. They have improved in each of head coach Mike McIntyre's first two seasons in San Jose, however, and if they can account for some losses on the offensive line and at quarterback, they could do so again in 2012.My San Jose State preview is up at the mothership. And evidently I forgot to share yesterday's Idaho preview here, so you've got that one to read, too.
DeWayne Walker took over a mostly hopeless program in 2009, and after a couple of steps backwards, his New Mexico State Aggies took a definitive step forward in 2011. They knocked off Minnesota and Fresno State, and they came within just a few points of their first five-win season since 2004. Walker's regime absolutely made progress in his third year, but now they encounter the downside of the life cycle. They return just eight total starters from last year's 4-9 squad and almost certainly face a bit of a rebuilding season. But can a coach with nine wins in three years survive a down year? There is quite a bit of pressure for New Mexico State to win right now. Not only is the WAC in flux, having recently lost established programs Boise State, Fresno State, Nevada and Hawaii and brought in new blood in Texas State and UTSA, but the entire mid-major universe is in flux right now. With the Mountain West and Conference USA forming a merger and potentially looking to add a few extra members, now would be a very good time to be good at football. And if NMSU cannot maintain 2011's progress, will Walker survive to see year five in Las Cruces?My New Mexico State preview is up at the mothership.
I am not particularly optimistic about 2012, but one has to be impressed with the moves [new head coach Charley] Molnar has made to date. He has assembled a quality staff, he will likely engineer offensive competence within a year or two, and lord knows he has plenty of ambition and confidence to go around. The future is intriguing for UMass, even if 2012 will be largely forgettable.My UMass profile is up at the mothership.
In 2006, an average of 41,908 Miami fans attended the Orange Bowl to watch Larry Coker's Hurricanes, five years removed from the national title, take on a home slate of ACC squads. On September 3, 2011, 56,743 UT-San Antonio fans filled the AlamoDome to watch their Roadrunners, replete with zero all-time wins, play Northeastern State. One has to wonder how long it took Carr Sports Associates, Inc., to complete the "Will football work at UTSA?" feasibility study it was assigned in 2006. One also has to wonder how much they charged for it.My UTSA profile is up at the mothership.
Picked clean by the Mountain West, the WAC is certainly a semi-friendly environment for a new program to find success. In their inaugural FBS campaign, Texas State will face an FCS program (Stephen F. Austin, whom they beat by nine last year), fellow FBS newbie UTSA, and four FBS programs projected 107th or worse. If, somehow, the TSU defense is shored up, and if the offense can stay in standard downs, then there are opportunities for wins on the table. Still, one would have to figure Franchione and company would find a 3-9 or 4-8 season rather successful during this first go-round.Why read my 2012 Texas State football preview? Because a) it's about football, and b) you really need a little more Dennis Franchione (i.e. college football's Dan Monson) in your life again.
There are only three things that matter for evaluating a team on a drive, where did you start, how many points did you score and what position did you give the ball back to your defense/special teams. Plays taken to achieve results and time elapsed off of the clock can be valuable in certain situations, but in general those three data points are the key. If we can effectively measure each play in how it contributes to those three key factors at once, why break it up into two pieces and why make it black and white?The success rate conversation continues back at MGoBlog. And I should point out, as Brett has, that he is, to a degree, meaning this more of a discussion of how coaches use the tool, which is obviously a completely different issue.