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So ... I can't say I saw this one coming:
| Week 2 | 2014 Season | |
| 50-60% chance of winning | 1-2 (33%) | 6-5 (55%) |
| 60-70% chance of winning | 13-5 (72%) | 20-10 (67%) |
| 70-80% chance of winning | 18-1 (95%) | 34-6 (85%) |
| 80-90% chance of winning | 17-1 (94%) | 41-4 (91%) |
| 90-100% chance of winning | 16-0 (100%) | 31-1 (97%) |
I wanted to make sure I was tracking the Chance of Winning columns below to see if they were lining up properly. I assumed that things would be pretty blurry at the beginning of the season, then crystallize as the numbers became more accurate. That means teams in the 80-90% column winning, say, 60% of the time while teams in the 60-70% column win 80% of the time. Inconsistencies, basically.
Instead, the favorites are winning at an even higher rate than expected. Teams given a 70 percent or greater chance of winning went 51-2 last week and are winning 91 percent of their games overall.
I think I understand what's going on here; as I've written before, teams start out in a pretty packed-in range to start the season. The best teams, for instance, are projected to finish with an F/+ rating in the plus-30 percent range, even though the best teams tend to finish the year around plus-38 to plus-50. That means the range between the best and worst teams is quite a bit smaller at the beginning of the year, and since that range is part of the Win Probability calculations, teams that are much better might be given an 80 percent chance of winning a game than, say, 90-95. The range will expand as real numbers replace projected numbers.
In that regard, the win percentages above seem to justify that the ratings have teams in the right order. So that's a nice thing.
| Week 2 | 2014 Season | |
| "NEW" Method | 27-18 (60%) | 64-64-1 (50%) |
| "OLD" Method | 22-23 (49%) | 41-42 (49%) |
| When Both Methods Agree | 17-13 (57%) | 29-27 (52%) |
So I never did find spreads posted for the FBS-vs-FCS games last week, and I haven't found them this week either. Typically someone like Covers.com has them posted. Alas, I never found them last week, so the NEW projections above do not include records in those games. That's unfortunate, not because I think the numbers performed well (I have no idea) but because it makes it feel like the NEW record above is incomplete. But apparently it will remain that way.
With that caveat in mind, the NEW method certainly bounced back last week, posting perhaps artificially high numbers a week after posting artificially low ones. And with all of these percentages hovering around 50%, here's your reminder that Vegas knows what the hell it's doing. I like the way these numbers are getting a bead on most FBS teams, but Vegas has the same bead.
I have the projections and odds for FCS/FBS below even though they won't count toward the record against the spread.
FBS vs. FBS
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | NEW Prediction |
Chance of winning | NEW Pick |
OLD Prediction |
OLD Pick |
Diff? |
| Thu | 8:00 PM | CBSSN | Louisiana Tech at North Texas | -4 | North Texas by 3.5 (26.7 - 23.2) | 63.2% | Louisiana Tech | North Texas by 3.5 | Louisiana Tech | |
| Thu | 9:00 PM | ESPN | Houston at BYU | -18 | BYU by 12.0 (29.6 - 17.6) | 78.5% | Houston | BYU by 16.6 | Houston | |
| Fri | 7:00 PM | ESPNU | Toledo at Cincinnati | -11 | Cincinnati by 5.3 (34.5 - 29.3) | 66.8% | Toledo | Cincinnati by 6.2 | Toledo | |
| Fri | 8:00 PM | ESPN | Baylor at Buffalo | 34.5 | Baylor by 17.9 (40.5 - 22.7) | 86.6% | Buffalo | Baylor by 29.6 | Buffalo | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ABC/ESPN2 | Boise State at Connecticut | 16 | Boise State by 7.7 (26.3 - 18.6) | 71.3% | Connecticut | Boise State by 13.8 | Connecticut | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | SECN | Central Florida at Missouri | -10 | Missouri by 8.2 (32.4 - 24.2) | 72.3% | Central Florida | Missouri by 10.8 | Missouri | XXX |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN | East Carolina at Virginia Tech | -11 | Virginia Tech by 14.4 (28.8 - 14.4) | 82.1% | Virginia Tech | Virginia Tech by 20.3 | Virginia Tech | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN3 | Georgia Southern at Georgia Tech | -20 | Georgia Tech by 21.4 (43.1 - 21.8) | 90.5% | Georgia Tech | Georgia Tech by 31.2 | Georgia Tech | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPNU | Indiana at Bowling Green | 7.5 | Bowling Green by 1.0 (31.0 - 29.9) | 58.0% | Bowling Green | Indiana by 0.3 | Bowling Green | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ABC/ESPN2 | Kent State at Ohio State | -32 | Ohio State by 24.0 (36.1 - 12.1) | 92.9% | Kent State | Ohio State by 35.2 | Ohio State | XXX |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN3 | Massachusetts at Vanderbilt | -17 | Vanderbilt by 14.0 (29.9 - 15.9) | 81.6% | Massachusetts | Vanderbilt by 19.8 | Vanderbilt | XXX |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | CBSSN | Ohio at Marshall | -21 | Marshall by 13.9 (32.6 - 18.7) | 81.4% | Ohio | Marshall by 19.6 | Ohio | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | FS1 | Pittsburgh at Florida International | 26 | Pittsburgh by 16.9 (28.7 - 11.8) | 85.4% | Florida International | Pittsburgh by 28.1 | Pittsburgh | XXX |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN News | Syracuse at Central Michigan | 6.5 | Syracuse by 0.5 (17.0 - 16.4) | 56.8% | Central Michigan | Syracuse by 2.7 | Central Michigan | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | BTN | West Virginia at Maryland | -3.5 | Maryland by 3.8 (20.8 - 17.0) | 63.9% | Maryland | Maryland by 4.0 | Maryland | |
| Sat | 12:30 PM | ESPN3 | Louisville at Virginia | 6.5 | Louisville by 9.9 (23.8 - 13.8) | 75.3% | Louisville | Louisville by 17.3 | Louisville | |
| Sat | 2:00 PM | ESPN3 | Air Force at Georgia State | 11.5 | Air Force by 4.0 (30.4 - 26.3) | 64.3% | Georgia State | Air Force by 8.2 | Georgia State | |
| Sat | 2:00 PM | Pac-12 | Wyoming at Oregon | -43 | Oregon by 32.4 (41.6 - 9.1) | 97.7% | Wyoming | Oregon by 48.3 | Oregon | XXX |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ABC | Arkansas at Texas Tech | -3 | Texas Tech by 3.9 (41.3 - 37.4) | 64.0% | Texas Tech | Texas Tech by 4.1 | Texas Tech | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPNU | Arkansas State at Miami-FL | -16 | Miami-FL by 15.6 (29.9 - 14.3) | 83.7% | Arkansas State | Miami-FL by 22.2 | Miami-FL | XXX |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | CBS | Georgia at South Carolina | 6 | Georgia by 0.5 (32.7 - 32.2) | 56.7% | South Carolina | Georgia by 2.6 | South Carolina | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN | Iowa State at Iowa | -10 | Iowa by 14.1 (30.3 - 16.2) | 81.7% | Iowa | Iowa by 19.9 | Iowa | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Kansas at Duke | -15.5 | Duke by 14.1 (37.5 - 23.5) | 81.7% | Kansas | Duke by 19.9 | Duke | XXX |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | BTN | Miami-OH at Michigan | -31 | Michigan by 27.2 (35.8 - 8.6) | 95.2% | Miami-OH | Michigan by 40.2 | Michigan | XXX |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | CBSSN | NC State at South Florida | 1 | South Florida by 1.0 (30.2 - 29.1) | 58.0% | South Florida | NC State by 0.3 | South Florida | |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | ESPN News | Mississippi State at South Alabama | 14 | Mississippi State by 9.5 (27.8 - 18.3) | 74.6% | South Alabama | Mississippi State by 16.7 | Mississippi State | XXX |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | SECN | UL-Lafayette at Ole Miss | -27.5 | Ole Miss by 22.9 (35.3 - 12.4) | 91.9% | UL-Lafayette | Ole Miss by 33.5 | Ole Miss | XXX |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | Fox | Illinois at Washington | -13.5 | Washington by 11.2 (31.2 - 19.9) | 77.4% | Illinois | Washington by 15.5 | Washington | XXX |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | FS1 | Minnesota at TCU | -14 | TCU by 10.4 (27.5 - 17.1) | 76.0% | Minnesota | TCU by 14.1 | TCU | XXX |
| Sat | 5:00 PM | Pac-12 | Army at Stanford | -28 | Stanford by 27.7 (41.7 - 14.0) | 95.5% | Army | Stanford by 41.0 | Stanford | XXX |
| Sat | 5:00 PM | ESPN3 | Western Michigan at Idaho | -3 | Idaho by 1.0 (32.0 - 31.0) | 58.0% | Western Michigan | Western Michigan by 0.3 | Western Michigan | |
| Sat | 6:00 PM | Eastern Michigan at Old Dominion | -18 | Old Dominion by 7.8 (33.9 - 26.0) | 71.5% | Eastern Michigan | Old Dominion by 10.2 | Eastern Michigan | ||
| Sat | 6:00 PM | ESPN2 | Southern Miss at Alabama | -48 | Alabama by 37.7 (44.8 - 7.1) | 98.6% | Southern Miss | Alabama by 56.4 | Alabama | XXX |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | MWC Video | Northern Illinois at UNLV | 10 | Northern Illinois by 10.7 (26.9 - 16.1) | 76.6% | Northern Illinois | Northern Illinois by 18.6 | Northern Illinois | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | FCSA | Tulsa at Florida Atlantic | -1 | Tulsa by 4.8 (37.8 - 33.0) | 65.8% | Tulsa | Tulsa by 9.3 | Tulsa | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPNU | UL-Monroe at LSU | -31 | LSU by 28.1 (38.9 - 10.8) | 95.8% | UL-Monroe | LSU by 41.6 | LSU | XXX |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | FSN Affiliates | UTSA at Oklahoma State | -13.5 | Oklahoma State by 12.2 (27.8 - 15.6) | 78.8% | UTSA | Oklahoma State by 16.9 | Oklahoma State | XXX |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | CBSSN | Wake Forest at Utah State | -14 | Utah State by 9.0 (14.0 - 5.0) | 73.7% | Wake Forest | Utah State by 12.0 | Wake Forest | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee | -1.5 | Western Kentucky by 1.4 (38.1 - 36.7) | 58.8% | Western Kentucky | Western Kentucky by 4.1 | Western Kentucky | ||
| Sat | 7:30 PM | SECN | Kentucky at Florida | -18 | Florida by 12.1 (31.0 - 18.9) | 78.7% | Kentucky | Florida by 16.8 | Kentucky | |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | NBC | Purdue at Notre Dame | -28 | Notre Dame by 28.9 (41.5 - 12.6) | 96.2% | Notre Dame | Notre Dame by 42.8 | Notre Dame | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | ESPN News | Navy at Texas State | 10 | Navy by 5.2 (40.5 - 35.2) | 66.7% | Texas State | Navy by 10.0 | Navy | XXX |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | New Mexico State at UTEP | -11 | UTEP by 9.9 (31.6 - 21.7) | 75.1% | New Mexico State | UTEP by 13.3 | UTEP | XXX | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | BTN | Penn State at Rutgers | 3 | Penn State by 3.2 (31.1 - 28.0) | 62.6% | Penn State | Penn State by 6.8 | Penn State | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | ABC | Tennessee at Oklahoma | -21 | Oklahoma by 20.4 (33.2 - 12.8) | 89.5% | Tennessee | Oklahoma by 29.6 | Oklahoma | XXX |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | Fox | UCLA at Texas | 7.5 | UCLA by 3.7 (20.8 - 17.1) | 63.6% | Texas | UCLA by 7.6 | UCLA | XXX |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | ESPN | USC at Boston College | 17 | USC by 12.8 (33.8 - 21.0) | 79.8% | Boston College | USC by 21.8 | USC | XXX |
| Sat | 9:00 PM | ESPN2 | Rice at Texas A&M | -32 | Texas A&M by 26.5 (46.5 - 20.0) | 94.8% | Rice | Texas A&M by 39.1 | Texas A&M | XXX |
| Sat | 10:00 PM | ESPNU | Arizona State at Colorado | 15.5 | Arizona State by 18.4 (40.9 - 22.4) | 87.3% | Arizona State | Arizona State by 30.5 | Arizona State | |
| Sat | 10:30 PM | CBSSN | Nebraska at Fresno State | 10.5 | Nebraska by 7.8 (28.6 - 20.8) | 71.5% | Fresno State | Nebraska by 14.0 | Nebraska | XXX |
| Sat | 11:00 PM | Pac-12 | Nevada at Arizona | -15.5 | Arizona by 12.4 (34.2 - 21.9) | 79.1% | Nevada | Arizona by 17.2 | Arizona | XXX |
FBS vs. FCS
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Prediction | Chance of winning |
| Sat | 3:00 PM | ESPN3 | Indiana State at Ball State | Ball State by 13.3 (29.4 - 16.1) | 80.6% |
| Sat | 3:00 PM | MWC Video | UC Davis at Colorado State | Colorado State by 10.4 (33.5 - 23.1) | 76.0% |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | CSBA | Alabama A&M at UAB | UAB by 23.4 (37.8 - 14.4) | 92.4% |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Abilene Christian at Troy | Troy by 2.2 (27.4 - 25.2) | 60.5% |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | Pac-12 | Portland State at Washington State | Washington State by 11.8 (32.5 - 20.7) | 78.3% |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | ESPN3 | SE Louisiana at Tulane | Tulane by 3.0 (26.6 - 23.6) | 62.2% |
| Sun | 12:00 AM | MWC Video | Northern Iowa at Hawaii | Hawaii by 4.1 (21.2 - 17.1) | 64.5% |