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Week 3 Picks

We're still in the "take this with a grain of salt" part of the season

Scott Olmos-USA TODAY Sports

Update #2 - I didn't not turn on the SoS nor the home field advantage factor in the predictions I posted earlier.  When I did, it made a few differences.  The updated picks are below.

With most teams having two weeks worth of data, here's my picks for this week.

I know, some are headscratchers.  That's because it's still hope is that by the time I'm picking Week 5 teams will be have regressed sufficiently to their own mean that their stats accurately reflect their likelihood of play.

Houston +18 at BYU
Louisiana Tech -2 at North Texas

Baylor -24 at Buffalo
Toledo at Cincinnatti - no line as Cincy hasn't played a game yet.

Abilene Christian +4 at Troy
Air Force -9 at Georgia State
Alabama A&M +24 at UAB
Arizona State -14 at Colorado
Arkansas -12 at Texas Tech
Arkansas State +5 at Miami (Florida)
Army +14 at Stanford
Boise State -4 at Connecticut
California-Davis +19 at Colorado State
UCF +5 at Missouri
East Carolina +4 at Virginia Tech
Eastern Michigan +15 at Old Dominion
Georgia -13 at South Carolina
Georgia Southern -10 at Georgia Tech
Illinois +2 at Washington
Indiana +2 at Bowling Green
Indiana State +20 at Ball State
Iowa State +9 at Iowa
Kansas +17 at Duke
Kent State +15 at Ohio State
Kentucky +16 at Florida
Louisiana-Lafayette +24 at Mississippi
Louisiana-Monroe +19 at LSU
Louisville -5 at Virginia
Massachusetts +3 at Vanderbilt
Miami (Ohio) +15 at Michigan
Minnesota +7 at TCU
Mississippi State -3 at South Alabama
Navy +23 at Texas State
Nebraska -12 at Fresno State
Nevada +14 at Arizona
New Mexico State +4 at UTEP
North Carolina State +0 at South Florida
Northern Illinois -20 at UNLV
Northern Iowa +1 at Hawai'i
Ohio +10 at Marshall
Penn State -4 at Rutgers
Pittsburgh -13 at Florida International
Portland State +17 at Washington State
Purdue +26 at Notre Dame
Rice +29 at Texas A&M
Southeastern Louisiana +14 at Tulane
USC -13 at Boston College
Southern Mississippi +24 at Alabama
Syracuse +12 at Central Michigan
Tennessee +9 at Oklahoma
UTSA +2 at Oklahoma State
Tulsa 0 at Florida Atlantic
UCLA -5 at Texas
Wake Forest -2 at Utah State
West Virginia -3 at Maryland
Western Kentucky +5 at Middle Tennessee
Western Michigan +8 at Idaho
Wyoming +20 at Oregon