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First, the good news: the odds portion of the F/+ rankings is doing pretty well. I was a bit worried about that since I'm using full-season methods on preseason projection data, but last week, things were nicely dialed in.
Teams given a 50-60% chance of winning went 5-3 (63%).
Teams given a 60-70% chance of winning went 7-5 (58%).
Teams given a 70-80% chance of winning went 16-5 (76%).
Teams given an 80-90% chance of winning went 24-3 (89%).
Teams given a 90-100% chance of winning went 15-1 (94%).
I'm going to track that this year, especially during this portion of the season when projections are getting slowly phased out in favor of real data. That will tell me if we're on the right track in that regard.
The bad news: Vegas kicked F/+'s ass last week, at least kind of.
"NEW" Method (inc. FCS): 37-46-1 (45%)
"OLD" Method: 19-19 (50%)*
* I realized this week that I had forgotten to add a home field advantage to the "OLD" method picks. Good times. I'm still running at a preseason level, I guess. The picks, as posted last week, went 15-23 (39%). When the home field advantage was added properly, the OLD picks improved to 19-19. The lesson as always: I'm a screw-up.
"NEW" Method in FBS vs. FCS games: 20-25-1 (45%)
When both sets of picks agreed: 12-14 (46%)
When the picks disagreed: NEW picks 5-7, OLD picks 7-5**
** As I've mentioned before, the NEW picks are based around a conservative ideal. The projections begin conservatively, with the top teams in the +20-30% range in the F/+ rankings. Teams distinguish themselves as the season progresses, and the top team in the F/+ rankings typically ends up in the +38-50% range. The NEW picks give no one the benefit of the doubt and projects almost no blowouts. As a result, the OLD picks, with a set top-to-bottom range of potential results, tends to fare better over the first weeks of the season.
This isn't terrible. There have been worse weeks, anyway. But the first week is usually a good one for the F/+ picks, as our projections are typically ahead of Vegas'. OLD picks went 30-15 in the first week, for example. But that was a little bit too good, I guess, and this year's first-week picks regressed to the mean. Alas.
So now we move on to Week 2. There are two tables below, one for FBS-vs-FBS games and one for FBS-vs-FCS. None of the usual suspects provided lines for the FCS games, however. I will try to add that later if I can, but the projections are below for posterity.
You know, because posterity cares about these picks.
FBS vs. FBS
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | NEW Prediction | Chance of winning | NEW Pick | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Diff? |
| Thu | 8:00 PM | FS1 | Arizona at UTSA | 8 | Arizona by 5.0 (26.9 - 21.9) | 66.2% | UTSA | Arizona by 9.5 | Arizona | XXX |
| Fri | 7:00 PM | ESPN | Pittsburgh at Boston College | 4 | Pittsburgh by 4.7 (31.2 - 26.6) | 65.6% | Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh by 9.0 | Pittsburgh | |
| Fri | 10:30 PM | ESPN | Washington State at Nevada | 4 | Nevada by 2.6 (30.2 - 27.6) | 61.3% | Nevada | Nevada by 2.1 | Nevada | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ABC/ESPN2 | Akron at Penn State | -14.5 | Penn State by 17.9 (32.6 - 14.7) | 86.6% | Penn State | Penn State by 25.5 | Penn State | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | SECN | Arkansas State at Tennessee | -17 | Tennessee by 8.4 (23.7 - 15.4) | 72.5% | Arkansas State | Tennessee by 10.9 | Arkansas State | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | CBSSN | Buffalo at Army | -3.5 | Army by 1.5 (28.6 - 27.1) | 59.0% | Buffalo | Army by 0.5 | Buffalo | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN News | Central Michigan at Purdue | -3 | Purdue by 1.0 (28.5 - 27.5) | 57.8% | Central Michigan | Central Michigan by 0.4 | Central Michigan | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | SECN | Florida Atlantic at Alabama | -40.5 | Alabama by 34.7 (47.2 - 12.6) | 98.3% | Florida Atlantic | Alabama by 51.2 | Alabama | XXX |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | FS1 | Kansas State at Iowa State | 12.5 | Kansas State by 9.1 (43.6 - 34.5) | 73.9% | Iowa State | Kansas State by 15.8 | Kansas State | XXX |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN | Missouri at Toledo | 4 | Missouri by 4.6 (37.8 - 33.2) | 65.5% | Missouri | Missouri by 8.9 | Missouri | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ABC/ESPN2 | Oklahoma at Tulsa | 25 | Oklahoma by 15.0 (33.0 - 18.0) | 83.0% | Tulsa | Oklahoma by 24.8 | Tulsa | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | FSN Affiliates | SMU at North Texas | -3 | North Texas by 4.5 (25.9 - 21.5) | 65.2% | North Texas | North Texas by 5.0 | North Texas | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | BTN | Western Kentucky at Illinois | -6 | Illinois by 3.4 (33.5 - 30.2) | 63.0% | Western Kentucky | Illinois by 3.3 | Western Kentucky | |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | ESPN3 | Navy at Temple | 3 | Temple by 2.7 (22.3 - 19.6) | 61.6% | Temple | Temple by 2.3 | Temple | |
| Sat | 2:00 PM | ESPN3 | New Mexico State at Georgia State | 1 | Georgia State by 5.8 (34.4 - 28.6) | 67.7% | Georgia State | Georgia State by 7.0 | Georgia State | |
| Sat | 2:00 PM | ESPN3 | South Alabama at Kent State | 3 | Kent State by 0.3 (24.4 - 24.2) | 56.2% | Kent State | South Alabama by 1.5 | Kent State | |
| Sat | 2:00 PM | FSN Affiliates | UAB at Mississippi State | -27.5 | Mississippi State by 24.6 (38.5 - 13.9) | 93.4% | UAB | Mississippi State by 35.8 | Mississippi State | XXX |
| Sat | 3:00 PM | ESPN3 | Colorado at Massachusetts | 17 | Colorado by 7.3 (29.7 - 22.4) | 70.5% | Massachusetts | Colorado by 12.9 | Massachusetts | |
| Sat | 3:00 PM | Pac-12 | Fresno State at Utah | -10.5 | Utah by 12.2 (37.6 - 25.5) | 78.8% | Utah | Utah by 16.7 | Utah | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN2 | Ball State at Iowa | -17.5 | Iowa by 11.7 (31.8 - 20.1) | 78.1% | Ball State | Iowa by 16.1 | Ball State | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | CBSSN | Maryland at South Florida | 13 | Maryland by 3.3 (23.0 - 19.7) | 62.8% | South Florida | Maryland by 6.9 | South Florida | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | BTN | Middle Tennessee at Minnesota | -16 | Minnesota by 6.1 (31.4 - 25.3) | 68.3% | Middle Tennessee | Minnesota by 7.4 | Middle Tennessee | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | BTN | Northern Illinois at Northwestern | -7 | Northwestern by 3.3 (28.5 - 25.2) | 62.9% | Northern Illinois | Northwestern by 3.2 | Northern Illinois | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPNU | Ohio at Kentucky | -13 | Kentucky by 12.2 (36.2 - 24.0) | 78.9% | Ohio | Kentucky by 16.8 | Kentucky | XXX |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ABC | USC at Stanford | -3 | Stanford by 6.0 (28.0 - 22.0) | 68.3% | Stanford | Stanford by 7.4 | Stanford | |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | SECN | Eastern Michigan at Florida | -38 | Florida by 26.9 (34.1 - 7.3) | 95.0% | Eastern Michigan | Florida by 39.2 | Florida | XXX |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | ESPN News | Georgia Tech at Tulane | 10 | Georgia Tech by 6.5 (38.0 - 31.5) | 69.1% | Tulane | Georgia Tech by 11.8 | Georgia Tech | XXX |
| Sat | 4:30 PM | ESPN | Ole Miss at Vanderbilt | 20 | Ole Miss by 8.9 (22.8 - 13.9) | 73.5% | Vanderbilt | Ole Miss by 15.5 | Vanderbilt | |
| Sat | 6:00 PM | ESPN3 | Old Dominion at NC State | -17 | NC State by 13.7 (34.8 - 21.1) | 81.2% | Old Dominion | NC State by 19.2 | NC State | XXX |
| Sat | 6:30 PM | Fox | Michigan State at Oregon | -11.5 | Oregon by 7.3 (42.5 - 35.2) | 70.6% | Michigan State | Oregon by 9.3 | Michigan State | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | CBSSN | Arizona State at New Mexico | 25 | Arizona State by 20.7 (41.9 - 21.1) | 89.8% | New Mexico | Arizona State by 33.6 | Arizona State | XXX |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Duke at Troy | 19 | Duke by 16.2 (38.6 - 22.4) | 84.5% | Troy | Duke by 26.6 | Duke | XXX |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPNU | East Carolina at South Carolina | -17 | South Carolina by 14.0 (36.9 - 22.9) | 81.6% | East Carolina | South Carolina by 19.6 | South Carolina | XXX |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Idaho at UL-Monroe | -14 | UL-Monroe by 7.0 (21.1 - 14.0) | 70.1% | Idaho | UL-Monroe by 8.9 | Idaho | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Louisiana Tech at UL-Lafayette | -14 | UL-Lafayette by 16.4 (33.5 - 17.1) | 84.9% | UL-Lafayette | UL-Lafayette by 23.3 | UL-Lafayette | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN2 | San Jose State at Auburn | -31 | Auburn by 19.5 (44.8 - 25.3) | 88.5% | San Jose State | Auburn by 28.0 | San Jose State | |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | FS1 | BYU at Texas | -1 | Texas by 2.2 (23.1 - 20.9) | 60.6% | Texas | Texas by 1.6 | Texas | |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | NBC | Michigan at Notre Dame | -4 | Notre Dame by 3.3 (33.8 - 30.6) | 62.7% | Michigan | Notre Dame by 3.1 | Michigan | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | ESPN News | San Diego State at North Carolina | -16 | North Carolina by 11.9 (33.8 - 21.9) | 78.4% | San Diego State | North Carolina by 16.3 | North Carolina | XXX |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | ESPN | Virginia Tech at Ohio State | -11 | Ohio State by 8.0 (32.2 - 24.1) | 72.0% | Virginia Tech | Ohio State by 10.4 | Virginia Tech | |
| Sat | 10:00 PM | Pac-12 | Memphis at UCLA | -24 | UCLA by 17.8 (31.9 - 14.1) | 86.6% | Memphis | UCLA by 25.4 | UCLA | XXX |
| Sat | 10:15 PM | ESPNU | Air Force at Wyoming | 2 | Wyoming by 3.4 (25.1 - 21.8) | 62.9% | Wyoming | Wyoming by 3.3 | Wyoming | |
| Sat | 10:15 PM | ESPN2 | Colorado State at Boise State | -10.5 | Boise State by 12.1 (29.8 - 17.7) | 78.7% | Boise State | Boise State by 16.6 | Boise State | |
| Sat | 10:30 PM | CBSSN | Oregon State at Hawaii | 10.5 | Oregon State by 9.2 (23.7 - 14.5) | 74.0% | Hawaii | Oregon State by 16.0 | Oregon State | XXX |
| Sat | 11:00 PM | FS1 | Texas Tech at UTEP | 20.5 | Texas Tech by 14.6 (36.0 - 21.4) | 82.4% | UTEP | Texas Tech by 24.2 | Texas Tech | XXX |
FBS vs. FCS
Remember: these are c-o-n-s-e-r-v-a-t-i-v-e in the projected scoring margins.
| Game | Date | Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Prediction | Chance of winning |
| 8 | 06-Sep-14 | Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPNU | McNeese State at Nebraska | Nebraska by 18.6 (33.9 - 15.3) | 87.5% |
| 9 | 06-Sep-14 | Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN3 | Stony Brook at Connecticut | Connecticut by 6.1 (28.8 - 22.7) | 68.4% |
| 10 | 06-Sep-14 | Sat | 12:00 PM | BTN | Western Illinois at Wisconsin | Wisconsin by 26.0 (34.8 - 8.8) | 94.4% |
| 11 | 06-Sep-14 | Sat | 12:00 PM | BTN | Howard at Rutgers | Rutgers by 19.4 (40.2 - 20.9) | 88.4% |
| 18 | 06-Sep-14 | Sat | 12:30 PM | ACC/ESPN3 | South Carolina State at Clemson | Clemson by 25.6 (37.7 - 12.1) | 94.1% |
| 24 | 06-Sep-14 | Sat | 3:00 PM | Pac-12 | Eastern Washington at Washington | Washington by 17.2 (27.4 - 10.2) | 85.8% |
| 25 | 06-Sep-14 | Sat | 3:00 PM | Pac-12 | Sacramento State at California | California by 13.4 (29.8 - 16.3) | 80.7% |
| 28 | 06-Sep-14 | Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Richmond at Virginia | Virginia by 9.9 (18.0 - 8.2) | 75.2% |
| 29 | 06-Sep-14 | Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Eastern Kentucky at Miami-OH | Eastern Kentucky by 5.2 (22.7 - 17.4) | 66.7% |
| 30 | 06-Sep-14 | Sat | 3:30 PM | FSN Affiliates | Missouri State at Oklahoma State | Oklahoma State by 23.0 (36.4 - 13.4) | 92.0% |
| 31 | 06-Sep-14 | Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Virginia Military at Bowling Green | Bowling Green by 31.7 (45.3 - 13.6) | 97.5% |
| 38 | 06-Sep-14 | Sat | 4:00 PM | SECN(alt) | Nicholls State at Arkansas | Arkansas by 18.0 (39.9 - 21.9) | 86.8% |
| 41 | 06-Sep-14 | Sat | 6:00 PM | Wagner at Florida International | Florida International by 13.6 (21.6 - 8.0) | 81.0% | |
| 42 | 06-Sep-14 | Sat | 6:00 PM | ESPN3 | Campbell at Appalachian State | Appalachian State by 10.3 (24.2 - 13.8) | 75.9% |
| 43 | 06-Sep-14 | Sat | 6:00 PM | ESPN3 | Savannah State at Georgia Southern | Georgia Southern by 16.7 (32.5 - 15.8) | 85.2% |
| 45 | 06-Sep-14 | Sat | 6:30 PM | ESPN3 | Gardner-Webb at Wake Forest | Wake Forest by 11.5 (22.0 - 10.5) | 77.8% |
| 50 | 06-Sep-14 | Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Murray State at Louisville | Louisville by 27.9 (30.4 - 2.5) | 95.6% |
| 51 | 06-Sep-14 | Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Southeast Missouri State at Kansas | Kansas by 11.0 (27.1 - 16.0) | 77.1% |
| 52 | 06-Sep-14 | Sat | 7:00 PM | CSBA | Rhode Island at Marshall | Marshall by 20.7 (36.9 - 16.3) | 89.7% |
| 53 | 06-Sep-14 | Sat | 7:00 PM | Alcorn St. at Southern Miss | Southern Miss by 11.2 (27.9 - 16.7) | 77.3% | |
| 54 | 06-Sep-14 | Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Florida A&M at Miami-FL | Miami-FL by 37.2 (44.1 - 6.8) | 98.6% |
| 59 | 06-Sep-14 | Sat | 7:30 PM | SECN | Sam Houston State at LSU | LSU by 24.3 (29.3 - 5.1) | 93.1% |
| 60 | 06-Sep-14 | Sat | 7:30 PM | RSPI | Towson at West Virginia | West Virginia by 9.3 (29.0 - 19.7) | 74.1% |
| 61 | 06-Sep-14 | Sat | 7:30 PM | FSN Affiliates | Northwestern State at Baylor | Baylor by 26.3 (38.3 - 12.0) | 94.6% |
| 62 | 06-Sep-14 | Sat | 7:30 PM | SECN(alt) | Lamar at Texas A&M | Texas A&M by 30.5 (47.2 - 16.7) | 97.0% |
| 63 | 06-Sep-14 | Sat | 7:30 PM | FSN Affiliates | Citadel at Florida State | Florida State by 42.4 (44.5 - 2.1) | 98.6% |
| 65 | 06-Sep-14 | Sat | 8:00 PM | MWC Video | Idaho State at Utah State | Utah State by 16.9 (24.9 - 8.1) | 85.4% |
| 66 | 06-Sep-14 | Sat | 8:00 PM | ESPN3 | Grambling at Houston | Houston by 34.8 (32.2 - -2.6) | 98.3% |
| 69 | 06-Sep-14 | Sat | 10:00 PM | MWC Video | Northern Colorado at UNLV | UNLV by 14.5 (34.5 - 20.0) | 82.2% |
Tread carefully, Miami (Ohio), UConn, WVU, Virginia, App State and Kansas...
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