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College football projections: Week 2 F/+ picks

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Christian Petersen

First, the good news: the odds portion of the F/+ rankings is doing pretty well. I was a bit worried about that since I'm using full-season methods on preseason projection data, but last week, things were nicely dialed in.

Teams given a 50-60% chance of winning went 5-3 (63%).
Teams given a 60-70% chance of winning went 7-5 (58%).
Teams given a 70-80% chance of winning went 16-5 (76%).
Teams given an 80-90% chance of winning went 24-3 (89%).
Teams given a 90-100% chance of winning went 15-1 (94%).

I'm going to track that this year, especially during this portion of the season when projections are getting slowly phased out in favor of real data. That will tell me if we're on the right track in that regard.

The bad news: Vegas kicked F/+'s ass last week, at least kind of.

"NEW" Method (inc. FCS): 37-46-1 (45%)
"OLD" Method: 19-19 (50%)*

* I realized this week that I had forgotten to add a home field advantage to the "OLD" method picks. Good times. I'm still running at a preseason level, I guess. The picks, as posted last week, went 15-23 (39%). When the home field advantage was added properly, the OLD picks improved to 19-19. The lesson as always: I'm a screw-up.

"NEW" Method in FBS vs. FCS games: 20-25-1 (45%)

When both sets of picks agreed: 12-14 (46%)
When the picks disagreed: NEW picks 5-7, OLD picks 7-5**

** As I've mentioned before, the NEW picks are based around a conservative ideal. The projections begin conservatively, with the top teams in the +20-30% range in the F/+ rankings. Teams distinguish themselves as the season progresses, and the top team in the F/+ rankings typically ends up in the +38-50% range. The NEW picks give no one the benefit of the doubt and projects almost no blowouts. As a result, the OLD picks, with a set top-to-bottom range of potential results, tends to fare better over the first weeks of the season.

This isn't terrible. There have been worse weeks, anyway. But the first week is usually a good one for the F/+ picks, as our projections are typically ahead of Vegas'. OLD picks went 30-15 in the first week, for example. But that was a little bit too good, I guess, and this year's first-week picks regressed to the mean. Alas.

So now we move on to Week 2. There are two tables below, one for FBS-vs-FBS games and one for FBS-vs-FCS. None of the usual suspects provided lines for the FCS games, however. I will try to add that later if I can, but the projections are below for posterity.

You know, because posterity cares about these picks.

FBS vs. FBS

Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread NEW Prediction Chance of winning NEW Pick OLD Prediction OLD Pick Diff?
Thu 8:00 PM FS1 Arizona at UTSA 8 Arizona by 5.0 (26.9 - 21.9) 66.2% UTSA Arizona by 9.5 Arizona XXX
Fri 7:00 PM ESPN Pittsburgh at Boston College 4 Pittsburgh by 4.7 (31.2 - 26.6) 65.6% Pittsburgh Pittsburgh by 9.0 Pittsburgh
Fri 10:30 PM ESPN Washington State at Nevada 4 Nevada by 2.6 (30.2 - 27.6) 61.3% Nevada Nevada by 2.1 Nevada
Sat 12:00 PM ABC/ESPN2 Akron at Penn State -14.5 Penn State by 17.9 (32.6 - 14.7) 86.6% Penn State Penn State by 25.5 Penn State
Sat 12:00 PM SECN Arkansas State at Tennessee -17 Tennessee by 8.4 (23.7 - 15.4) 72.5% Arkansas State Tennessee by 10.9 Arkansas State
Sat 12:00 PM CBSSN Buffalo at Army -3.5 Army by 1.5 (28.6 - 27.1) 59.0% Buffalo Army by 0.5 Buffalo
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN News Central Michigan at Purdue -3 Purdue by 1.0 (28.5 - 27.5) 57.8% Central Michigan Central Michigan by 0.4 Central Michigan
Sat 12:00 PM SECN Florida Atlantic at Alabama -40.5 Alabama by 34.7 (47.2 - 12.6) 98.3% Florida Atlantic Alabama by 51.2 Alabama XXX
Sat 12:00 PM FS1 Kansas State at Iowa State 12.5 Kansas State by 9.1 (43.6 - 34.5) 73.9% Iowa State Kansas State by 15.8 Kansas State XXX
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN Missouri at Toledo 4 Missouri by 4.6 (37.8 - 33.2) 65.5% Missouri Missouri by 8.9 Missouri
Sat 12:00 PM ABC/ESPN2 Oklahoma at Tulsa 25 Oklahoma by 15.0 (33.0 - 18.0) 83.0% Tulsa Oklahoma by 24.8 Tulsa
Sat 12:00 PM FSN Affiliates SMU at North Texas -3 North Texas by 4.5 (25.9 - 21.5) 65.2% North Texas North Texas by 5.0 North Texas
Sat 12:00 PM BTN Western Kentucky at Illinois -6 Illinois by 3.4 (33.5 - 30.2) 63.0% Western Kentucky Illinois by 3.3 Western Kentucky
Sat 1:00 PM ESPN3 Navy at Temple 3 Temple by 2.7 (22.3 - 19.6) 61.6% Temple Temple by 2.3 Temple
Sat 2:00 PM ESPN3 New Mexico State at Georgia State 1 Georgia State by 5.8 (34.4 - 28.6) 67.7% Georgia State Georgia State by 7.0 Georgia State
Sat 2:00 PM ESPN3 South Alabama at Kent State 3 Kent State by 0.3 (24.4 - 24.2) 56.2% Kent State South Alabama by 1.5 Kent State
Sat 2:00 PM FSN Affiliates UAB at Mississippi State -27.5 Mississippi State by 24.6 (38.5 - 13.9) 93.4% UAB Mississippi State by 35.8 Mississippi State XXX
Sat 3:00 PM ESPN3 Colorado at Massachusetts 17 Colorado by 7.3 (29.7 - 22.4) 70.5% Massachusetts Colorado by 12.9 Massachusetts
Sat 3:00 PM Pac-12 Fresno State at Utah -10.5 Utah by 12.2 (37.6 - 25.5) 78.8% Utah Utah by 16.7 Utah
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN2 Ball State at Iowa -17.5 Iowa by 11.7 (31.8 - 20.1) 78.1% Ball State Iowa by 16.1 Ball State
Sat 3:30 PM CBSSN Maryland at South Florida 13 Maryland by 3.3 (23.0 - 19.7) 62.8% South Florida Maryland by 6.9 South Florida
Sat 3:30 PM BTN Middle Tennessee at Minnesota -16 Minnesota by 6.1 (31.4 - 25.3) 68.3% Middle Tennessee Minnesota by 7.4 Middle Tennessee
Sat 3:30 PM BTN Northern Illinois at Northwestern -7 Northwestern by 3.3 (28.5 - 25.2) 62.9% Northern Illinois Northwestern by 3.2 Northern Illinois
Sat 3:30 PM ESPNU Ohio at Kentucky -13 Kentucky by 12.2 (36.2 - 24.0) 78.9% Ohio Kentucky by 16.8 Kentucky XXX
Sat 3:30 PM ABC USC at Stanford -3 Stanford by 6.0 (28.0 - 22.0) 68.3% Stanford Stanford by 7.4 Stanford
Sat 4:00 PM SECN Eastern Michigan at Florida -38 Florida by 26.9 (34.1 - 7.3) 95.0% Eastern Michigan Florida by 39.2 Florida XXX
Sat 4:00 PM ESPN News Georgia Tech at Tulane 10 Georgia Tech by 6.5 (38.0 - 31.5) 69.1% Tulane Georgia Tech by 11.8 Georgia Tech XXX
Sat 4:30 PM ESPN Ole Miss at Vanderbilt 20 Ole Miss by 8.9 (22.8 - 13.9) 73.5% Vanderbilt Ole Miss by 15.5 Vanderbilt
Sat 6:00 PM ESPN3 Old Dominion at NC State -17 NC State by 13.7 (34.8 - 21.1) 81.2% Old Dominion NC State by 19.2 NC State XXX
Sat 6:30 PM Fox Michigan State at Oregon -11.5 Oregon by 7.3 (42.5 - 35.2) 70.6% Michigan State Oregon by 9.3 Michigan State
Sat 7:00 PM CBSSN Arizona State at New Mexico 25 Arizona State by 20.7 (41.9 - 21.1) 89.8% New Mexico Arizona State by 33.6 Arizona State XXX
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 Duke at Troy 19 Duke by 16.2 (38.6 - 22.4) 84.5% Troy Duke by 26.6 Duke XXX
Sat 7:00 PM ESPNU East Carolina at South Carolina -17 South Carolina by 14.0 (36.9 - 22.9) 81.6% East Carolina South Carolina by 19.6 South Carolina XXX
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 Idaho at UL-Monroe -14 UL-Monroe by 7.0 (21.1 - 14.0) 70.1% Idaho UL-Monroe by 8.9 Idaho
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 Louisiana Tech at UL-Lafayette -14 UL-Lafayette by 16.4 (33.5 - 17.1) 84.9% UL-Lafayette UL-Lafayette by 23.3 UL-Lafayette
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN2 San Jose State at Auburn -31 Auburn by 19.5 (44.8 - 25.3) 88.5% San Jose State Auburn by 28.0 San Jose State
Sat 7:30 PM FS1 BYU at Texas -1 Texas by 2.2 (23.1 - 20.9) 60.6% Texas Texas by 1.6 Texas
Sat 7:30 PM NBC Michigan at Notre Dame -4 Notre Dame by 3.3 (33.8 - 30.6) 62.7% Michigan Notre Dame by 3.1 Michigan
Sat 8:00 PM ESPN News San Diego State at North Carolina -16 North Carolina by 11.9 (33.8 - 21.9) 78.4% San Diego State North Carolina by 16.3 North Carolina XXX
Sat 8:00 PM ESPN Virginia Tech at Ohio State -11 Ohio State by 8.0 (32.2 - 24.1) 72.0% Virginia Tech Ohio State by 10.4 Virginia Tech
Sat 10:00 PM Pac-12 Memphis at UCLA -24 UCLA by 17.8 (31.9 - 14.1) 86.6% Memphis UCLA by 25.4 UCLA XXX
Sat 10:15 PM ESPNU Air Force at Wyoming 2 Wyoming by 3.4 (25.1 - 21.8) 62.9% Wyoming Wyoming by 3.3 Wyoming
Sat 10:15 PM ESPN2 Colorado State at Boise State -10.5 Boise State by 12.1 (29.8 - 17.7) 78.7% Boise State Boise State by 16.6 Boise State
Sat 10:30 PM CBSSN Oregon State at Hawaii 10.5 Oregon State by 9.2 (23.7 - 14.5) 74.0% Hawaii Oregon State by 16.0 Oregon State XXX
Sat 11:00 PM FS1 Texas Tech at UTEP 20.5 Texas Tech by 14.6 (36.0 - 21.4) 82.4% UTEP Texas Tech by 24.2 Texas Tech XXX

FBS vs. FCS

Remember: these are c-o-n-s-e-r-v-a-t-i-v-e in the projected scoring margins.

Game Date Day Time (ET) TV Game Prediction Chance of winning
8 06-Sep-14 Sat 12:00 PM ESPNU McNeese State at Nebraska Nebraska by 18.6 (33.9 - 15.3) 87.5%
9 06-Sep-14 Sat 12:00 PM ESPN3 Stony Brook at Connecticut Connecticut by 6.1 (28.8 - 22.7) 68.4%
10 06-Sep-14 Sat 12:00 PM BTN Western Illinois at Wisconsin Wisconsin by 26.0 (34.8 - 8.8) 94.4%
11 06-Sep-14 Sat 12:00 PM BTN Howard at Rutgers Rutgers by 19.4 (40.2 - 20.9) 88.4%
18 06-Sep-14 Sat 12:30 PM ACC/ESPN3 South Carolina State at Clemson Clemson by 25.6 (37.7 - 12.1) 94.1%
24 06-Sep-14 Sat 3:00 PM Pac-12 Eastern Washington at Washington Washington by 17.2 (27.4 - 10.2) 85.8%
25 06-Sep-14 Sat 3:00 PM Pac-12 Sacramento State at California California by 13.4 (29.8 - 16.3) 80.7%
28 06-Sep-14 Sat 3:30 PM ESPN3 Richmond at Virginia Virginia by 9.9 (18.0 - 8.2) 75.2%
29 06-Sep-14 Sat 3:30 PM ESPN3 Eastern Kentucky at Miami-OH Eastern Kentucky by 5.2 (22.7 - 17.4) 66.7%
30 06-Sep-14 Sat 3:30 PM FSN Affiliates Missouri State at Oklahoma State Oklahoma State by 23.0 (36.4 - 13.4) 92.0%
31 06-Sep-14 Sat 3:30 PM ESPN3 Virginia Military at Bowling Green Bowling Green by 31.7 (45.3 - 13.6) 97.5%
38 06-Sep-14 Sat 4:00 PM SECN(alt) Nicholls State at Arkansas Arkansas by 18.0 (39.9 - 21.9) 86.8%
41 06-Sep-14 Sat 6:00 PM Wagner at Florida International Florida International by 13.6 (21.6 - 8.0) 81.0%
42 06-Sep-14 Sat 6:00 PM ESPN3 Campbell at Appalachian State Appalachian State by 10.3 (24.2 - 13.8) 75.9%
43 06-Sep-14 Sat 6:00 PM ESPN3 Savannah State at Georgia Southern Georgia Southern by 16.7 (32.5 - 15.8) 85.2%
45 06-Sep-14 Sat 6:30 PM ESPN3 Gardner-Webb at Wake Forest Wake Forest by 11.5 (22.0 - 10.5) 77.8%
50 06-Sep-14 Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 Murray State at Louisville Louisville by 27.9 (30.4 - 2.5) 95.6%
51 06-Sep-14 Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 Southeast Missouri State at Kansas Kansas by 11.0 (27.1 - 16.0) 77.1%
52 06-Sep-14 Sat 7:00 PM CSBA Rhode Island at Marshall Marshall by 20.7 (36.9 - 16.3) 89.7%
53 06-Sep-14 Sat 7:00 PM Alcorn St. at Southern Miss Southern Miss by 11.2 (27.9 - 16.7) 77.3%
54 06-Sep-14 Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 Florida A&M at Miami-FL Miami-FL by 37.2 (44.1 - 6.8) 98.6%
59 06-Sep-14 Sat 7:30 PM SECN Sam Houston State at LSU LSU by 24.3 (29.3 - 5.1) 93.1%
60 06-Sep-14 Sat 7:30 PM RSPI Towson at West Virginia West Virginia by 9.3 (29.0 - 19.7) 74.1%
61 06-Sep-14 Sat 7:30 PM FSN Affiliates Northwestern State at Baylor Baylor by 26.3 (38.3 - 12.0) 94.6%
62 06-Sep-14 Sat 7:30 PM SECN(alt) Lamar at Texas A&M Texas A&M by 30.5 (47.2 - 16.7) 97.0%
63 06-Sep-14 Sat 7:30 PM FSN Affiliates Citadel at Florida State Florida State by 42.4 (44.5 - 2.1) 98.6%
65 06-Sep-14 Sat 8:00 PM MWC Video Idaho State at Utah State Utah State by 16.9 (24.9 - 8.1) 85.4%
66 06-Sep-14 Sat 8:00 PM ESPN3 Grambling at Houston Houston by 34.8 (32.2 - -2.6) 98.3%
69 06-Sep-14 Sat 10:00 PM MWC Video Northern Colorado at UNLV UNLV by 14.5 (34.5 - 20.0) 82.2%

Tread carefully, Miami (Ohio), UConn, WVU, Virginia, App State and Kansas...