In Stage #2, we calculated the Earned Wins for each team based completely on the raw number of rated wins and total losses. We will now take these unadjusted Earned Wins and use them to recalculate the Earned Wins of each team. This step will be repeated until for every team, the new calculation of Earned Wins does not differ from number of Earned Wins in the immediately preceding step.
While the computer program is running this iterative process, it will also enforce the following rules.
- Each team's rated wins are prorated using the following formula: (12 x RW)/(RW + L). A team's Earned Wins are bounded above by the result of this proration.
- A team's Earned Wins are constricted by its number of win points as follows:
55 win points = maximum of 11 earned wins
45 win points = maximum of 10 earned wins
36 win points = maximum of 9 earned wins
28 win points = maximum of 8 earned wins
21 win points = maximum of 7 earned wins
15 win points = maximum of 6 earned wins
10 win points = maximum of 5 earned wins
6 win points = maximum of 4 earned wins
3 win points = maximum of 3 earned wins
1 win point = maximum of 2 earned wins
0 win points = maximum of 1 earned win
These restrictions keep teams from earning wins by simply not losing to bad teams even though they have few, if any, impressive wins.
The relationship above is defined by the function MAX EW = 0.5(radical(8 x WP + 1)+1). This function is used for all win point values and not just those listed above.
- If a rated team loses to an unrated team, the number of loss points earned by the rated team is calculated by treating the unrated team as a rated team with one exception - the unrated team's losses all earn 11 loss points.
- A single win can earn at most 11 win points and a single loss can earn at most 11 loss points.
- A team's loss points are constricted by its number of actual losses as follows:
1 loss = maximum of 11 loss points
2 losses = maximum of 21 loss points
3 losses = maximum of 30 loss points
4 losses = maximum of 38 loss points
5 losses = maximum of 45 loss points
6 losses = maximum of 51 loss points
7 losses = maximum of 56 loss points
8 losses = maximum of 60 loss points
9 losses = maximum of 63 loss points
10 losses = maximum of 65 loss points
11 losses = maximum of 66 loss points
These restrictions keep teams from accumulating an unrealistic number of loss points based on assumed losses and not actual losses. The relationship above is defined by MAX LP = 0.5 x L(23-L).
The table below shows the adjusted Earned Wins and the secondary Earned Wins for each rated team. Secondary Earned Wins are the result of removing the restriction that Earned Wins cannot exceed actual wins.
|
TEAM |
W |
L |
EW |
EW2 |
|
Air Force (CO) |
2 |
10 |
0.120 |
0.120 |
|
Akron (OH) |
5 |
7 |
2.667 |
2.712 |
|
Alabama |
11 |
1 |
9.776 |
9.776 |
|
Arizona |
7 |
5 |
6.232 |
6.232 |
|
Arizona St. |
10 |
3 |
9.000 |
10.351 |
|
Arkansas |
3 |
9 |
1.200 |
2.451 |
|
Arkansas St. |
7 |
5 |
4.497 |
4.497 |
|
Army (NY) |
3 |
9 |
0.323 |
0.323 |
|
Auburn (AL) |
12 |
1 |
11.000 |
11.641 |
|
Ball St. (IN) |
10 |
2 |
5.587 |
5.587 |
|
Baylor (TX) |
11 |
1 |
9.735 |
9.735 |
|
Boise St. (ID) |
8 |
4 |
4.962 |
4.962 |
|
Boston College (MA) |
7 |
5 |
5.615 |
5.615 |
|
Bowling Green (OH) |
10 |
3 |
5.843 |
5.843 |
|
Brigham Young (UT) |
8 |
4 |
6.748 |
6.748 |
|
Buffalo (NY) |
8 |
4 |
3.848 |
3.848 |
|
California |
1 |
11 |
0.000 |
0.907 |
|
Central Florida |
11 |
1 |
7.953 |
7.953 |
|
Central Michigan |
6 |
6 |
2.545 |
2.545 |
|
Cincinnati (OH) |
9 |
3 |
4.716 |
4.716 |
|
Clemson (SC) |
10 |
2 |
8.859 |
8.859 |
|
Colorado |
4 |
8 |
2.400 |
2.670 |
|
Colorado St. |
7 |
6 |
2.230 |
2.230 |
|
Connecticut |
3 |
9 |
0.615 |
0.615 |
|
Duke (NC) |
10 |
3 |
8.061 |
8.061 |
|
East Carolina (NC) |
9 |
3 |
5.755 |
5.755 |
|
Eastern Michigan |
2 |
10 |
0.000 |
0.091 |
|
Florida |
4 |
8 |
3.915 |
3.915 |
|
Florida Atlantic |
6 |
6 |
3.538 |
3.538 |
|
Florida St. |
13 |
0 |
11.138 |
11.138 |
|
Fresno St. (CA) |
11 |
1 |
7.493 |
7.493 |
|
Georgia |
8 |
4 |
7.636 |
8.263 |
|
Georgia Tech |
7 |
5 |
6.000 |
6.312 |
|
Hawaii |
1 |
11 |
0.029 |
0.029 |
|
Houston (TX) |
8 |
4 |
5.540 |
5.540 |
|
Idaho |
1 |
11 |
0.017 |
0.017 |
|
Illinois |
4 |
8 |
2.400 |
2.763 |
|
Indiana |
5 |
7 |
4.364 |
4.866 |
|
Iowa |
8 |
4 |
7.200 |
7.208 |
|
Iowa St. |
3 |
9 |
1.924 |
1.924 |
|
Kansas |
3 |
9 |
1.659 |
1.659 |
|
Kansas St. |
7 |
5 |
5.797 |
5.797 |
|
Kent St. (OH) |
4 |
8 |
1.333 |
1.446 |
|
Kentucky |
2 |
10 |
0.000 |
1.000 |
|
Louisiana St. |
9 |
3 |
7.947 |
7.947 |
|
Louisiana Tech |
4 |
8 |
0.554 |
0.554 |
|
Louisiana-Lafayette |
8 |
4 |
4.475 |
4.475 |
|
Louisiana-Monroe |
6 |
6 |
3.824 |
3.824 |
|
Louisville (KY) |
11 |
1 |
6.642 |
6.642 |
|
Marshall (WV) |
9 |
4 |
4.933 |
4.933 |
|
Maryland |
7 |
5 |
4.905 |
4.905 |
|
Memphis (TN) |
3 |
9 |
0.734 |
0.734 |
|
Miami (FL) |
9 |
3 |
7.789 |
7.789 |
|
Michigan |
7 |
5 |
6.780 |
6.780 |
|
Michigan St. |
12 |
1 |
10.048 |
10.048 |
|
Middle Tennessee St. |
8 |
4 |
4.556 |
4.556 |
|
Minnesota |
8 |
4 |
7.117 |
7.117 |
|
Mississippi |
7 |
5 |
6.545 |
6.908 |
|
Mississippi St. |
6 |
6 |
5.455 |
5.961 |
|
Missouri |
11 |
2 |
10.000 |
10.236 |
|
Navy (MD) |
8 |
4 |
5.523 |
5.523 |
|
Nebraska |
8 |
4 |
6.456 |
6.456 |
|
Nevada |
4 |
8 |
2.153 |
2.153 |
|
Nevada-Las Vegas |
7 |
5 |
4.068 |
4.068 |
|
New Mexico |
3 |
9 |
0.301 |
0.301 |
|
New Mexico St. |
2 |
10 |
0.092 |
0.092 |
|
North Carolina |
6 |
6 |
5.273 |
5.273 |
|
North Carolina St. |
3 |
9 |
1.700 |
1.700 |
|
North Dakota State |
13 |
0 |
3.941 |
3.941 |
|
North Texas |
8 |
4 |
5.033 |
5.033 |
|
Northern Illinois |
12 |
1 |
7.476 |
7.476 |
|
Northwestern (IL) |
5 |
7 |
3.600 |
4.075 |
|
Notre Dame (IN) |
8 |
4 |
8.000 |
8.108 |
|
Ohio |
7 |
5 |
3.531 |
3.531 |
|
Ohio St. |
12 |
1 |
10.034 |
10.034 |
|
Oklahoma |
10 |
2 |
9.142 |
9.142 |
|
Oklahoma St. |
10 |
2 |
8.918 |
8.918 |
|
Old Dominion (VA) |
8 |
4 |
1.033 |
1.033 |
|
Oregon |
10 |
2 |
8.850 |
8.850 |
|
Oregon St. |
6 |
6 |
5.250 |
5.250 |
|
Penn St. |
7 |
5 |
5.930 |
5.930 |
|
Pittsburgh (PA) |
6 |
6 |
5.515 |
5.515 |
|
Purdue (IN) |
1 |
11 |
0.000 |
0.771 |
|
Rice (TX) |
10 |
3 |
6.205 |
6.205 |
|
Rutgers (NJ) |
6 |
6 |
2.839 |
2.839 |
|
San Diego St. (CA) |
7 |
5 |
4.354 |
4.354 |
|
San Jose St. (CA) |
6 |
6 |
3.901 |
3.901 |
|
South Alabama |
6 |
6 |
3.076 |
3.076 |
|
South Carolina |
10 |
2 |
9.370 |
9.370 |
|
South Florida |
2 |
10 |
0.576 |
0.576 |
|
Southern California |
9 |
4 |
7.967 |
7.967 |
|
Southern Methodist (TX) |
5 |
7 |
1.923 |
1.923 |
|
Stanford (CA) |
11 |
2 |
10.154 |
10.922 |
|
Syracuse (NY) |
6 |
6 |
4.939 |
4.939 |
|
Temple (PA) |
2 |
10 |
0.187 |
0.187 |
|
Tennessee |
5 |
7 |
4.364 |
5.141 |
|
Texas |
8 |
4 |
7.211 |
7.211 |
|
Texas A&M |
8 |
4 |
7.636 |
7.687 |
|
Texas Christian |
4 |
8 |
2.918 |
2.918 |
|
Texas St. |
6 |
6 |
2.224 |
2.224 |
|
Texas Tech |
7 |
5 |
5.441 |
5.441 |
|
Texas-El Paso |
2 |
10 |
0.099 |
0.099 |
|
Texas-San Antonio |
7 |
5 |
4.416 |
4.416 |
|
Toledo (OH) |
7 |
5 |
4.855 |
4.855 |
|
Troy (AL) |
6 |
6 |
3.334 |
3.334 |
|
Tulane (LA) |
7 |
5 |
4.017 |
4.017 |
|
Tulsa (OK) |
3 |
9 |
0.741 |
0.741 |
|
UCLA |
9 |
3 |
8.642 |
8.642 |
|
Utah |
5 |
7 |
4.364 |
5.200 |
|
Utah St. |
8 |
5 |
4.498 |
4.498 |
|
Vanderbilt (TN) |
8 |
4 |
6.411 |
6.411 |
|
Virginia |
2 |
10 |
1.091 |
1.919 |
|
Virginia Tech |
8 |
4 |
7.519 |
7.519 |
|
Wake Forest (NC) |
4 |
8 |
3.051 |
3.051 |
|
Washington |
8 |
4 |
7.395 |
7.395 |
|
Washington St. |
6 |
6 |
5.455 |
5.839 |
|
West Virginia |
4 |
8 |
2.400 |
2.513 |
|
Western Kentucky |
8 |
4 |
4.513 |
4.513 |
|
Wisconsin |
9 |
3 |
7.854 |
7.854 |
|
Wyoming |
5 |
7 |
1.294 |
1.294 |
Stage #3 is now complete. Next up is the final stage: Stage #4 - Constructing the Playoff Bracket.
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