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Study Hall: Michigan 28, Akron 24

Gregory Shamus

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here. Or just skip to the words. I won't be offended. (Okay, I'll only be a little offended.)

Michigan 28, Akron 24

Akron Michigan Akron Michigan
Close % 100.0% STANDARD DOWNS
Field Position % 41.8% 37.1% Success Rate 39.2% 32.4%
Leverage % 64.6% 54.8% PPP 0.30 0.58
S&P 0.689 0.908
TOTAL
EqPts 39.1 39.7 PASSING DOWNS
Close Success Rate 39.2% 33.9% Success Rate 39.3% 35.7%
Close PPP 0.50 0.64 PPP 0.86 0.71
Close S&P 0.888 0.979 S&P 1.250 1.065
RUSHING TURNOVERS
EqPts 9.4 16.0 Number 2 4
Close Success Rate 40.0% 29.0% Turnover Pts 14.2 20.6
Close PPP 0.31 0.52 Turnover Pts Margin +6.4 -6.4
Close S&P 0.715 0.806
Line Yards/carry 2.63 1.81 Q1 S&P 0.422 1.157
Q2 S&P 0.718 0.640
PASSING Q3 S&P 0.991 1.235
EqPts 29.7 23.7 Q4 S&P 1.217 0.883
Close Success Rate 38.8% 38.7%
Close PPP 0.61 0.77 1st Down S&P 0.673 0.636
Close S&P 0.993 1.153 2nd Down S&P 1.102 1.367
SD/PD Sack Rate 0.0% / 0.0% 0.0% / 4.4% 3rd Down S&P 0.985 1.156
Projected Pt. Margin: Akron +5.8 | Actual Pt. Margin: Michigan +4

"Projected Pt. Margin: Akron +5.8." Oof. Akron did enough to win this game but came up two fourth-quarter red zone trips short. Michigan picked off a pass in the end zone and got pressure on Akron QB Kyle Pohl on the final play of the game (forcing an overthrow), and that was the difference.

Other notes:

* Under 2.0 line yards per carry is pretty bad, Michigan. So is a rushing success rate under 30 percent.

* Big plays helped Michigan significantly. The Wolverines were indeed terribly inefficient, falling into passing downs on nearly half of their snaps, but big plays -- a 36-yard run by QB Devin Gardner, a 48-yard pass to Devin Funchess, a 33-yard pass to Jehu Chesson, a 24-yard run (and 27-yard catch) by Fitzgerald Toussaint -- bought them time.

* Woof. You got lucky, Michigan. That was quite the egg you just laid. (And that was quite the effort, Akron.)