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Study Hall: Louisville 27, Kentucky 13

Andy Lyons

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here. Or just skip to the words. I won't be offended. (Okay, I'll only be a little offended.)

You had to figure Mark Stoops was going to have his guys ready to play, and they were ... defensively, anyway. But it was only a matter of time.

Louisville 27, Kentucky 13

Louisville Kentucky Louisville Kentucky
Close % 87.6% STANDARD DOWNS
Field Position % 43.5% 54.4% Success Rate 54.7% 42.4%
Leverage % 76.8% 64.7% PPP 0.72 0.54
S&P 1.271 0.968
TOTAL
EqPts 44.4 34.5 PASSING DOWNS
Close Success Rate 52.2% 35.3% Success Rate 43.8% 22.2%
Close PPP 0.64 0.47 PPP 0.37 0.33
Close S&P 1.165 0.822 S&P 0.812 0.553
RUSHING TURNOVERS
EqPts 22.9 16.3 Number 1 3
Close Success Rate 52.5% 34.8% Turnover Pts 4.0 12.1
Close PPP 0.57 0.44 Turnover Pts Margin +8.1 -8.1
Close S&P 1.098 0.784
Line Yards/carry 3.76 2.19 Q1 S&P 0.726 0.567
Q2 S&P 0.848 0.753
PASSING Q3 S&P 1.559 1.162
EqPts 21.5 18.2 Q4 S&P 1.537 1.003
Close Success Rate 51.7% 35.7%
Close PPP 0.74 0.50 1st Down S&P 1.212 1.010
Close S&P 1.257 0.853 2nd Down S&P 1.295 1.048
SD/PD Sack Rate 0.0% / 7.7% 0.0% / 7.7% 3rd Down S&P 0.815 0.078
Projected Pt. Margin: Louisville +18.0 | Actual Pt. Margin: Louisville +14

We still don't really know much about Kentucky -- good enough to hang with Louisville for a half, bad enough to lose to a WKU team that hands turnovers to opponents like stripper cards in Vegas -- but we know that Louisville's quality eventually shined through against an iffy opponent. The Cardinals' offense went from okay in the first half to nearly perfect in the second, and for the game Kentucky just couldn't force enough passing downs to get stops. And turnovers turned a potential one-possession game into something worse.