Notre Dame lost to a solid Ole Miss team, subbed in its third-string quarterback, and became the best team in the country. There's your one-sentence summary of 1977.
That QB, of course, was Joe Montana, who apparently must not have cared much about practicing, as he entered his junior season still behind Rusty Lisch and Gary Forystek on the depth chart, even though he had put together a couple of thrilling performances in 1975 (he redshirted in 1976 with a shoulder injury). But when he got another shot after Forystek suffered a major injury, he took total advantage. He led Notre Dame to a comeback win against Purdue, and the Irish outscored their final nine opponents by a margin of 357-86. Only Michigan State (16-6) and Clemson (21-17) stayed relatively close.
The 1977 season was a funny mix of expected and unexpected. The top two teams in the final AP poll were Notre Dame and Alabama, which made sense (both were in the preseason top 6), and five other preseason top tenners finished in the top 13. But Kentucky and Washingtno came out of nowhere, Arkansas and Texas rebounded from down years more quickly than expected, and of the 13 teams ranked below seventh in the preseason poll, only three finished the season ranked. There was a lot of churn beneath the surface.
Meanwhile, we had another cruddy set of bowls. No. 1 Texas got rocked by No. 5 Notre Dame in the Cotton Bowl, allowing the Irish to jump up to the top spot (and juding by the Est. S&P+ ranking, this was somewhat justifiable). Meanwhile, No. 2 Oklahoma played No. 6 Arkansas in the Orange Bowl (and got whooped), No. 3 Alabama played No. 9 Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl, No. 4 Michigan played No. 13 Washington in the Rose Bowl, and No. 8 Penn State played No. 15 Arizona State in the Fiesta Bowl. Alabama crushed Ohio State by 29 points but still got leaped by Notre Dame. I doubt "Well, the numbers liked the Irish, too" was much of a consolation.
Hello, HBCUs
For this one season, HBCUs were considered Division I football programs.
There was an almost total lack of connectivity between their schedules and the rest of Division I, as most continued to play only HBCUs of different divisions. Grambling played Temple in Tokyo at the end of the year but otherwise played fellow HBCUs. Alcorn State played Central Michigan. That was about it. So that makes it hard to truly judge them against the other schools listed here.
That said, it drops a hint. Integration of all major college football teams in the 1970s would eventually take a heavy toll on HBCUs in the 1980s, but there was still some serious quality on the field here. Tennessee State's defense graded out better than anyone else's, Grambling's offense (led by Doug Williams) ranked fifth, and with a limited schedule, Jackson State squeezed into the top 50 as well. Even if they are boosted higher than they should have been because of the lack of effective opponent adjustments, TSU and Grambling were almost certainly top-40 teams, and JSU was almost certainly top-75.
(I don't know about you, but a top 50 that includes MAC, SWAC, and Ivy schools is all sorts of fun for me.)
It would have been interesting to see what would have happened had the SWAC remained in Division I. Obviously integration would have still affected the talent pool, but maybe a few would have been able to establish top-60 levels consistently.
| S&P+ Rk | Team | Record | Est S&P+ | Percentile | Off. S&P+ | Rk | Def. S&P+ | Rk |
| 1 | Notre Dame | 11-1 | 27.8 | 99.61% | 37.2 | 1 | 9.4 | 5 |
| 2 | Penn State | 11-1 | 24.6 | 99.09% | 36.4 | 2 | 11.8 | 9 |
| 3 | Alabama | 11-1 | 24.5 | 99.07% | 33.9 | 7 | 9.4 | 4 |
| 4 | Pittsburgh | 9-2-1 | 23.7 | 98.85% | 35.3 | 4 | 11.6 | 8 |
| 5 | Texas | 11-1 | 19.4 | 96.82% | 34.4 | 6 | 15.1 | 27 |
| 6 | Oklahoma | 10-2 | 19.3 | 96.75% | 35.4 | 3 | 16.2 | 39 |
| 7 | Tennessee State | 8-1-1 | 18.3 | 96.04% | 22.9 | 42 | 4.6 | 1 |
| 8 | Arkansas | 11-1 | 17.0 | 94.81% | 28.9 | 16 | 11.9 | 10 |
| 9 | Kentucky | 10-1 | 16.6 | 94.41% | 24.7 | 32 | 8.2 | 2 |
| 10 | USC | 8-4 | 16.2 | 93.92% | 31.8 | 8 | 15.7 | 33 |
| 11 | Nebraska | 9-3 | 16.1 | 93.84% | 29.5 | 14 | 13.4 | 15 |
| 12 | Ohio State | 9-3 | 15.8 | 93.51% | 27.2 | 22 | 11.4 | 7 |
| 13 | Michigan | 10-2 | 15.5 | 93.16% | 27.6 | 19 | 12.1 | 11 |
| 14 | Florida State | 10-2 | 14.8 | 92.25% | 27.6 | 20 | 12.7 | 12 |
| 15 | Washington | 8-4 | 14.3 | 91.44% | 29.6 | 13 | 15.3 | 29 |
| 16 | North Texas | 9-2 | 12.5 | 88.38% | 28.9 | 15 | 16.5 | 42 |
| 17 | Grambling State | 10-1 | 12.4 | 88.28% | 34.9 | 5 | 22.5 | 92 |
| 18 | Fresno State | 9-2 | 12.2 | 87.79% | 31.0 | 10 | 18.8 | 60 |
| 19 | North Carolina | 8-3-1 | 12.2 | 87.79% | 20.7 | 70 | 8.6 | 3 |
| 20 | Clemson | 8-3-1 | 12.0 | 87.56% | 22.3 | 49 | 10.2 | 6 |
| 21 | NC State | 8-4 | 10.7 | 84.78% | 23.7 | 38 | 12.9 | 13 |
| 22 | Mississippi State | 5-6 | 9.4 | 81.64% | 23.8 | 37 | 14.4 | 20 |
| 23 | Colorado | 7-3-1 | 8.9 | 80.38% | 24.5 | 35 | 15.5 | 32 |
| 24 | Colgate | 10-1 | 8.9 | 80.32% | 29.9 | 12 | 21.0 | 80 |
| 25 | Louisiana Tech | 9-1-2 | 8.5 | 79.13% | 22.2 | 51 | 13.7 | 17 |
| S&P+ Rk | Team | Record | Est S&P+ | Percentile | Off. S&P+ | Rk | Def. S&P+ | Rk |
| 26 | San Diego State | 10-1 | 8.3 | 78.58% | 28.0 | 18 | 19.7 | 68 |
| 27 | Iowa State | 8-4 | 7.9 | 77.42% | 21.9 | 57 | 14.1 | 19 |
| 28 | BYU | 9-2 | 7.6 | 76.82% | 31.1 | 9 | 23.4 | 102 |
| 29 | Ole Miss | 5-6 | 7.3 | 75.81% | 22.0 | 55 | 14.7 | 24 |
| 30 | Texas A&M | 8-4 | 7.2 | 75.36% | 30.9 | 11 | 23.7 | 104 |
| 31 | Missouri | 4-7 | 7.0 | 74.78% | 20.5 | 75 | 13.5 | 16 |
| 32 | UCLA | 7-4 | 6.9 | 74.60% | 24.6 | 33 | 17.7 | 50 |
| 33 | Washington State | 6-5 | 6.9 | 74.48% | 25.3 | 27 | 18.4 | 54 |
| 34 | Maryland | 8-4 | 6.8 | 74.29% | 21.4 | 62 | 14.6 | 23 |
| 35 | Yale | 7-2 | 6.5 | 73.34% | 21.0 | 67 | 14.5 | 22 |
| 36 | Rutgers | 8-3 | 6.5 | 73.29% | 22.6 | 45 | 16.1 | 37 |
| 37 | Michigan State | 7-3-1 | 6.4 | 72.95% | 22.4 | 48 | 16.0 | 36 |
| 38 | Texas Tech | 7-5 | 6.3 | 72.84% | 25.1 | 29 | 18.7 | 58 |
| 39 | Ball State | 9-2 | 6.2 | 72.40% | 26.6 | 24 | 20.4 | 77 |
| 40 | Duke | 5-6 | 6.1 | 72.08% | 23.6 | 39 | 17.5 | 49 |
| 41 | Central Michigan | 10-1 | 6.1 | 72.00% | 25.0 | 30 | 18.9 | 63 |
| 42 | California | 7-4 | 5.8 | 71.09% | 26.2 | 26 | 20.4 | 75 |
| 43 | Arizona State | 9-3 | 5.4 | 69.87% | 27.6 | 21 | 22.1 | 88 |
| 44 | Temple | 5-5-1 | 5.4 | 69.84% | 28.1 | 17 | 22.6 | 94 |
| 45 | Navy | 5-6 | 5.1 | 68.81% | 23.3 | 41 | 18.1 | 52 |
| 46 | Jackson State | 3-0 | 5.1 | 68.79% | 19.0 | 88 | 13.9 | 18 |
| 47 | Miami-OH | 10-1 | 4.5 | 66.73% | 21.5 | 60 | 17.0 | 46 |
| 48 | East Carolina | 8-3 | 4.5 | 66.70% | 21.4 | 61 | 16.9 | 44 |
| 49 | Southern Miss | 6-6 | 4.4 | 66.20% | 20.5 | 74 | 16.2 | 38 |
| 50 | Memphis | 6-5 | 4.3 | 65.93% | 21.3 | 64 | 17.0 | 45 |
| S&P+ Rk | Team | Record | Est S&P+ | Percentile | Off. S&P+ | Rk | Def. S&P+ | Rk |
| 51 | UL-Lafayette | 6-4-2 | 4.1 | 65.37% | 19.5 | 83 | 15.4 | 31 |
| 52 | William & Mary | 6-5 | 3.8 | 64.26% | 20.3 | 76 | 16.5 | 41 |
| 53 | Auburn | 5-6 | 3.4 | 62.87% | 22.0 | 52 | 18.6 | 57 |
| 54 | Syracuse | 6-5 | 3.4 | 62.78% | 22.2 | 50 | 18.8 | 61 |
| 55 | Houston | 6-5 | 3.3 | 62.29% | 26.3 | 25 | 23.0 | 96 |
| 56 | South Carolina | 5-7 | 3.2 | 62.10% | 18.9 | 91 | 15.7 | 34 |
| 57 | LSU | 8-4 | 3.0 | 61.47% | 26.9 | 23 | 23.9 | 106 |
| 58 | UT-Arlington | 5-6 | 3.0 | 61.46% | 18.4 | 97 | 15.3 | 30 |
| 59 | Colorado State | 9-2-1 | 3.0 | 61.24% | 21.9 | 58 | 18.9 | 62 |
| 60 | West Virginia | 5-6 | 2.9 | 61.11% | 24.6 | 34 | 21.6 | 86 |
| 61 | Stanford | 9-3 | 2.6 | 59.82% | 24.8 | 31 | 22.2 | 89 |
| 62 | Minnesota | 7-5 | 2.3 | 58.77% | 15.7 | 115 | 13.4 | 14 |
| 63 | Georgia Tech | 6-5 | 2.2 | 58.24% | 21.3 | 65 | 19.1 | 65 |
| 64 | Miami-FL | 3-8 | 2.0 | 57.45% | 17.8 | 99 | 15.8 | 35 |
| 65 | Tennessee | 4-7 | 1.7 | 56.32% | 21.7 | 59 | 20.0 | 71 |
| 66 | Army | 7-4 | 1.4 | 55.41% | 25.2 | 28 | 23.8 | 105 |
| 67 | Florida | 6-4-1 | 1.4 | 55.21% | 22.8 | 43 | 21.4 | 83 |
| 68 | Baylor | 5-6 | 1.3 | 54.99% | 21.0 | 68 | 19.7 | 69 |
| 69 | Cincinnati | 5-4-2 | 1.2 | 54.73% | 17.4 | 102 | 16.2 | 40 |
| 70 | Princeton | 3-6 | 0.9 | 53.61% | 16.0 | 114 | 15.1 | 28 |
| 71 | Louisville | 7-4-1 | 0.7 | 52.69% | 21.3 | 63 | 20.6 | 79 |
| 72 | Harvard | 4-5 | 0.6 | 52.37% | 19.6 | 81 | 19.0 | 64 |
| 73 | Northwestern State | 6-5 | 0.0 | 49.89% | 17.3 | 104 | 17.4 | 47 |
| 74 | Brown | 7-2 | -0.1 | 49.58% | 14.3 | 126 | 14.4 | 21 |
| 75 | Villanova | 4-7 | -0.2 | 49.33% | 22.4 | 47 | 22.5 | 93 |
| S&P+ Rk | Team | Record | Est S&P+ | Percentile | Off. S&P+ | Rk | Def. S&P+ | Rk |
| 76 | Oklahoma State | 4-7 | -0.5 | 47.99% | 22.6 | 46 | 23.1 | 100 |
| 77 | Arizona | 5-7 | -1.0 | 46.37% | 20.6 | 72 | 21.6 | 84 |
| 78 | VMI | 7-4 | -1.2 | 45.29% | 16.8 | 105 | 18.1 | 51 |
| 79 | Indiana | 5-5-1 | -1.2 | 45.26% | 19.0 | 87 | 20.3 | 74 |
| 80 | Iowa | 4-7 | -1.3 | 45.21% | 17.5 | 100 | 18.8 | 59 |
| 81 | Utah State | 4-7 | -1.4 | 44.79% | 18.6 | 96 | 19.9 | 70 |
| 82 | SMU | 4-7 | -1.5 | 44.33% | 24.1 | 36 | 25.6 | 119 |
| 83 | Texas Southern | 6-4-1 | -1.7 | 43.57% | 19.6 | 82 | 21.3 | 82 |
| 84 | Georgia | 5-6 | -1.9 | 42.68% | 14.8 | 121 | 16.7 | 43 |
| 85 | McNeese State | 5-5-1 | -1.9 | 42.62% | 12.8 | 131 | 14.7 | 25 |
| 86 | Kent | 6-5 | -2.3 | 41.27% | 18.9 | 92 | 21.2 | 81 |
| 87 | Virginia Tech | 3-7-1 | -2.3 | 41.26% | 16.3 | 112 | 18.6 | 56 |
| 88 | Purdue | 5-6 | -2.4 | 40.88% | 20.5 | 73 | 22.9 | 95 |
| 89 | Eastern Michigan | 8-3 | -2.5 | 40.60% | 16.7 | 107 | 19.2 | 66 |
| 90 | San Jose State | 4-7 | -2.5 | 40.51% | 22.0 | 56 | 24.5 | 109 |
| 91 | Hawaii | 5-6 | -2.5 | 40.45% | 19.8 | 79 | 22.3 | 90 |
| 92 | West Texas A&M | 6-4-1 | -2.6 | 40.14% | 19.0 | 90 | 21.6 | 85 |
| 93 | Western Michigan | 4-7 | -2.6 | 40.14% | 20.8 | 69 | 23.4 | 101 |
| 94 | Pacific | 6-5 | -2.6 | 40.07% | 15.6 | 116 | 18.2 | 53 |
| 95 | Oregon State | 2-9 | -2.8 | 39.29% | 20.2 | 77 | 23.1 | 98 |
| 96 | UT-Chattanooga | 6-1-1 | -3.0 | 38.71% | 18.8 | 93 | 21.8 | 87 |
| 97 | Bowling Green | 5-7 | -3.0 | 38.54% | 23.4 | 40 | 26.5 | 126 |
| 98 | Boston College | 6-5 | -3.0 | 38.51% | 22.0 | 53 | 25.1 | 117 |
| 99 | Kansas State | 1-10 | -3.1 | 38.20% | 17.4 | 103 | 20.5 | 78 |
| 100 | Pennsylvania | 5-4 | -4.0 | 35.15% | 14.5 | 124 | 18.4 | 55 |
| S&P+ Rk | Team | Record | Est S&P+ | Percentile | Off. S&P+ | Rk | Def. S&P+ | Rk |
| 101 | Kansas | 3-7-1 | -4.1 | 34.82% | 16.1 | 113 | 20.2 | 72 |
| 102 | New Mexico | 5-7 | -4.2 | 34.42% | 22.6 | 44 | 26.8 | 129 |
| 103 | Long Beach State | 4-6 | -4.7 | 32.72% | 22.0 | 54 | 26.7 | 127 |
| 104 | Dartmouth | 6-3 | -5.0 | 31.75% | 9.9 | 142 | 14.8 | 26 |
| 105 | The Citadel | 5-6 | -5.2 | 30.85% | 12.2 | 133 | 17.4 | 48 |
| 106 | Tulane | 3-8 | -5.6 | 29.61% | 18.6 | 95 | 24.2 | 107 |
| 107 | Illinois State | 3-7-1 | -6.9 | 25.56% | 18.1 | 98 | 25.0 | 116 |
| 108 | Alcorn State | 3-8 | -6.9 | 25.37% | 16.6 | 109 | 23.5 | 103 |
| 109 | Vanderbilt | 2-9 | -8.2 | 21.53% | 14.8 | 120 | 23.0 | 97 |
| 110 | Wisconsin | 5-6 | -8.4 | 20.92% | 10.9 | 138 | 19.3 | 67 |
| 111 | Wichita State | 5-6 | -8.8 | 19.93% | 19.8 | 80 | 28.6 | 132 |
| 112 | Columbia | 2-7 | -8.8 | 19.89% | 16.8 | 106 | 25.7 | 120 |
| 113 | Wyoming | 4-6-1 | -8.9 | 19.73% | 15.5 | 117 | 24.4 | 108 |
| 114 | Cornell | 1-8 | -9.2 | 19.02% | 11.2 | 136 | 20.4 | 76 |
| 115 | Mississippi Valley State | 5-5 | -9.5 | 18.25% | 16.4 | 110 | 25.9 | 122 |
| 116 | New Mexico State | 4-7 | -9.6 | 17.96% | 16.6 | 108 | 26.2 | 123 |
| 117 | Arkansas State | 7-4 | -10.0 | 17.00% | 13.1 | 130 | 23.1 | 99 |
| 118 | Virginia | 1-9-1 | -10.0 | 16.86% | 10.2 | 141 | 20.2 | 73 |
| 119 | Illinois | 3-8 | -10.3 | 16.16% | 14.5 | 123 | 24.8 | 115 |
| 120 | Richmond | 3-8 | -10.7 | 15.36% | 13.8 | 127 | 24.5 | 110 |
| 121 | Southern | 3-7-1 | -10.9 | 14.76% | 15.0 | 119 | 25.9 | 121 |
| 122 | Western Carolina | 6-4-1 | -11.2 | 14.20% | 15.5 | 118 | 26.7 | 128 |
| 123 | Utah | 3-8 | -11.5 | 13.47% | 21.2 | 66 | 32.7 | 137 |
| 124 | Holy Cross | 2-9 | -11.8 | 12.93% | 16.4 | 111 | 28.2 | 131 |
| 125 | Indiana State | 3-7 | -11.9 | 12.70% | 14.4 | 125 | 26.3 | 124 |
| S&P+ Rk | Team | Record | Est S&P+ | Percentile | Off. S&P+ | Rk | Def. S&P+ | Rk |
| 126 | Air Force | 2-8-1 | -12.3 | 11.90% | 12.5 | 132 | 24.8 | 113 |
| 127 | Northwestern | 1-10 | -12.8 | 10.95% | 13.5 | 129 | 26.4 | 125 |
| 128 | Fullerton State | 4-7 | -13.3 | 10.08% | 20.7 | 71 | 34.0 | 139 |
| 129 | Furman | 4-5-2 | -13.5 | 9.82% | 13.7 | 128 | 27.2 | 130 |
| 130 | Northern Illinois | 3-8 | -14.1 | 8.80% | 10.5 | 139 | 24.6 | 112 |
| 131 | Toledo | 2-9 | -14.2 | 8.72% | 11.0 | 137 | 25.2 | 118 |
| 132 | Wake Forest | 1-10 | -14.3 | 8.50% | 10.2 | 140 | 24.5 | 111 |
| 133 | Oregon | 2-9 | -14.4 | 8.43% | 17.5 | 101 | 31.8 | 135 |
| 134 | Lamar | 2-9 | -14.4 | 8.39% | 8.1 | 143 | 22.5 | 91 |
| 135 | Ohio | 1-10 | -14.7 | 7.93% | 20.1 | 78 | 34.8 | 140 |
| 136 | Appalachian State | 2-9 | -16.2 | 6.01% | 14.7 | 122 | 30.9 | 133 |
| 137 | Tulsa | 3-8 | -16.6 | 5.63% | 18.6 | 94 | 35.2 | 141 |
| 138 | UTEP | 1-10 | -17.1 | 5.08% | 19.3 | 85 | 36.4 | 142 |
| 139 | TCU | 2-9 | -17.4 | 4.81% | 19.5 | 84 | 36.9 | 143 |
| 140 | Rice | 1-10 | -18.5 | 3.80% | 19.2 | 86 | 37.7 | 144 |
| 141 | Prairie View A&M | 3-8 | -19.5 | 3.05% | 12.0 | 134 | 31.5 | 134 |
| 142 | Southern Illinois | 3-8 | -19.9 | 2.84% | 4.9 | 145 | 24.8 | 114 |
| 143 | Marshall | 2-9 | -20.4 | 2.53% | 19.0 | 89 | 39.4 | 145 |
| 144 | Drake | 2-9 | -22.0 | 1.76% | 11.8 | 135 | 33.8 | 138 |
| 145 | UL-Monroe | 2-9 | -24.5 | 0.94% | 7.5 | 144 | 32.0 | 136 |
Your hypothetical Playoff race
As always, here's your end-of-regular-season AP poll:
1. Texas (11-0)
2. Oklahoma (10-1)
3. Alabama (10-1)
4. Michigan (10-1)
5. Notre Dame (10-1)
6. Arkansas (10-1)
7. Kentucky (10-1)
8. Penn State (10-1)
Well isn't THAT a complete and total disaster...
Even taking into account that Kentucky was on NCAA probation and therefore ineligible (good timing there, UK ... you play at an elite level when you can't take advantage of it), that's six nearly indistinguishable teams fighting for three spots.
Oklahoma had beaten Ohio State (No. 9 in this poll) and Nebraska (No. 12) and had lost only to Texas. Alabama lost to Nebraska (No. 12) but won at USC (No. 1 at the time, No. 20 at end of regular season) and LSU. Michigan crushed Texas A&M (No. 5 at the time, No. 17 at end of regular season) and Wisconsin (No. 14 at the time) by a combined 97-3 and beat Ohio State. The Wolverines' confusing 16-0 loss at Minnesota was a black mark, though. Notre Dame had crushed USC and Clemson, and the Irish's only loss came pre-Montana. Arkansas had lost only to Texas. Penn State had lost only to Kentucky.
So Texas is obviously in, and I'm guessing OU's two big wins are enough as well. And I believe that, as the AP had it, Alabama, Michigan, and Notre Dame would have been a step ahead of Arkansas and PSU (even though my computer liked PSU a hell of a lot more than UM). But how do you separate those three? Michigan had some incredibly dominant wins but had by far the worst loss. I'm guessing that, plus the "We haven't lost with Montana" thing might have nudged Notre Dame ahead. I'm sure Bo Schembechler would have taken that well.
So I'm guessing we get 1 Texas vs. 4 Notre Dame and 2 Oklahoma vs. 3 Alabama. Going by both bowl performance and the numbers above, that probably gives us an Irish-Tide final that we didn't get that season. So Tide grievances are addressed ... and Wolverine grievances are not.