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Introducing Special Teams S&P+ (beta) ratings

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Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Last year, I redesigned the S&P+ ratings to both incorporate more factors (primarily those related to the Five Factors) and snap more properly onto a bell curve.  The results were pretty good -- the opponent adjustments are more sound, win probability projections were outstanding, and S&P+'s performance against the spread was about as good as always (~52%). As I am a tinkerer, I've already got a couple more ideas to try, so I might be updating the updates soon. At some point, I should probably try to stop doing that.

One of the things I wasn't happy with when it came to this year's S&P+ ratings was that I ran out of time in the offseason and couldn't tease out special teams ratings as I wanted to. As it stands, factors like field position (which obviously draws from kicks and returns) and finishing drives (place-kicking) are incorporated into the offensive and defensive ratings, even though that isn't a perfect fit.

Well, this isn't a perfect fit either, but it's a start: Below you can find what I'll call a beta version of Special Teams S&P+ ratings. They don't actually fit into the overall formulas yet, and it will probably take quite a bit of tinkering to get to that point, but I finally found a moment to go down this road a bit.

What should special teams efficiency ratings measure?

Let's start with that question. We can get a pretty good feel for special teams by using the go-to measures -- punting and kicking averages (and maybe touchback rates), return averages, FG percentages, etc. And if you want to go further than that, you've already got Brian Fremeau's ratings to fall back on; I've referenced them frequently through the years.

I had a vision of my own that I wanted to pursue, however, and it revolves around the same success rate concept that make up such a large portion of my offensive and defensive ratings.

Special teams is the ultimate small-sample exercise.

Kickoffs

We determine good and bad kick or return teams based on just a handful of samples. For instance, the five worst teams in the country by opponent kick return average were Texas State, Arizona State, Georgia State, Hawaii, and Missouri. These five each allowed at least 26.5 yards per return, which is quite bad. But the five also covered an average of just 22.6 returns in 2015, fewer than two per game. The top three rushers in college football averaged more than 22.6 carries per game.

With such a small sample, just one or two big returns can drastically skew your averages. Hawaii, ASU, and Texas State each allowed a kick return touchdown, while eight other teams allowed two and Louisiana Tech allowed three.

Really, though, what happens after about 30 yards is pretty random, just as big plays are to some degree random on offense and defense. Your goal as a return unit is to get your man to about the 30 or 40, then hope he's able to find an angle that allows him to go much further; your goal as a kick coverage unit is to hem the guy in before he gets to that point.

So what happens if we eliminate onside kicks and judge a kickoff or return unit by simply how frequently returns were hemmed in at a certain baseline?

On average, kickoffs netted about 40-41 yards per kick in 2015. Since touchbacks net 40 yards, the median falls in the same range, too. So what if we simply deemed kickoffs that net 40 yards or more a success? And what if we deem returns that create net yards of 39 or fewer yards successes in the opposite direction?

Top 10 kick coverage teams per Kickoff Success Rate
1. UCLA (92.9%)
2. Memphis (91.9%)
3. Ole Miss (91.6%)
4. Georgia Tech (90.3%)
5. New Mexico (90.3%)
6. Georgia Southern (89.9%)
7. PItt (89.9%)
8. Florida State (89.3%)
9. SMU (88.5%)
10. Alabama (88.3%)

The three teams in italics were also in the top 10 for kick return average, but the other seven were not.

Judging kicks in this rather simple way changes how we view kick coverage in general. A healthy 38% of kickoffs are touchbacks on average, and if you're really good at booting the ball through the end zone, you don't have to really worry about how good your coverage unit is -- you're producing good field position regardless, and that's the primary goal here.

UCLA allowed a pretty poor 23.8 yards per return in 2015, 112th in the country. But the Bruins were pinning opponents at or inside the 25 on about 23 of every 25 kicks, so who cares?

Bottom 10 kick coverage teams per Kickoff Success Rate
128. Old Dominion (26.4%)
127. California (43.5%)
126. South Florida (43.9%)
125. Oregon State (45.8%)
124. Kent State (45.9%)
123. Louisiana Tech (50.0%)
122. Toledo (50.6%)
121. Western Kentucky (50.9%)
120. San Jose State (52.2%)
119. South Alabama (52.4%)

Kent State and SJSU were among the bottom 10 in average return allowed. The other eight were not.

Meanwhile, Old Dominion allowed 'only' 19.8 yards per return, 37th in the country. But only 1.9% of the Monarchs' kickoffs were touchbacks. A 20-yard return gets you pretty far if you're fielding it at the 10.

But looking at net kickoff yardage (instead of just return yards) and focusing more on success rates than averages, we get a better view of the teams that were most consistent.

So what about returns? If we eliminate touchbacks and non-returns and simply deem a successful return as something that results in an unsuccessful kickoff, what do we get?

Top 10 kick return units per Return Success Rate
1. Tennessee (74.1%)
2. Auburn (70.6%)
3. Iowa (68.6%)
4. Kansas State (68.0%)
5. San Diego State (67.6%)
6. Stanford (67.3%)
7. Arkansas State (65.9%)
8. Marshall (65.5%)
9. South Florida (65.0%)

10. Southern Miss (64.3%)

Five of 10 were also in the top 10 in return average. As you would probably assume, there's more continuity there.

Bottom 10 kick return units per Return Success Rate
128. Florida (15.2%)
127. Wake Forest (16.7%)
126. Missouri (21.1%)
125. Buffalo (22.9%)

124. Georgia State (23.1%)
123. Ole Miss (23.5%)
122. Arkansas (23.7%)
121. New Mexico State (24.2%)
120. Virginia (25.6%)
119. Virginia Tech (26.5%)

Again, five of 10 were in the bottom 10 in return average.

Think for a moment, however, about the advantage or disadvantage this can generate. The worst return team (Florida) was getting out past the 25 on only three of 20 returns on average; the best (Tennessee) was doing so on 15 of 20. Even at only two to four returns per game, that can generate a healthy field position margin by itself.

Punting

Punting is a little bit trickier to measure since it doesn't take place from the same spot on the field every time (well, almost every time). The average punt netted about 37.3 yards in 2015, but depending on where you're punting from, that average shifts dramatically.

Here's a look at the average net punting yards in 2015 by yard line (i.e. punting when you're lined up at the 1 or the 28 or the 49 or whatever).

That's a pretty perfect polynomial right there. If you're punting with your feet in the end zone, you might be taking a shorter approach to make sure you get the kick off. If you're punting from the opponent's 40 -- and yes, it is okay to sometimes do that -- then setting the bar at 37.5 net yards is pretty tough (here's your reminder that touchbacks cut 20 yards from your net).

So for determining punt success rates, what if we just set the bar based on the trend line above? If you're punting from the 1, a successful punt nets more than 33.2 yards. If you're punting from your 35, it's 39.5 yards. From the opponent's 45, 31.5. This gives you a moving target and doesn't punish punters who end up taking more snaps from their end zone or from deeper in opponent territory.

So what does this produce?

Top 10 punt units per Punting Success Rate
1. Oklahoma (57.9%)
2. Florida State (55.7%)
3. Florida (53.6%)
4. Arkansas (53.5%)
5. Syracuse (52.2%)
6. UCF (51.5%)
7. UL-Lafayette (49.2%)
8. Idaho (49.0%)
9. San Jose State (47.9%)
10. Hawaii (47.3%)

Only two of these teams -- FSU and SJSU -- were also in the top 10 for punting average. Consider this Cason Beatty's Redemption, as FSU's much maligned punter had one hell of a fall. Meanwhile, everybody's favorite fat punter, Utah's Ray Guy Award winner Tom Hackett, ranked only 20th when it came to meeting this bar with frequency. He had a cannon for a right leg (48.0 yards per punt), but maybe the driver isn't always the best club to use.

Bottom 10 punt units per Punting Success Rate
128. Southern Miss (10.2% -- wow)
127. NMSU (14.3%)
126. SMU (14.5%)
125. Middle Tennessee (15.2%)
124. Maryland (16.2%)
122. Bowling Green (16.7%)
122. Western Michigan (16.7%)
121. Ball State (16.9%)
120. Baylor (17.1%)
119. Washington State (18.4%)

So what about returns? Because punters sometimes try to avoid awesome return men, I was tempted to include punts out of bounds in the sample here, but for now, let's just do what we did with kickoffs: look at punt returns that result in unsuccessful punts.

Top 10 punt return units per Return Success Rate
1. Ball State (76.9%)
2. Marshall (73.9%)
3. Fresno State (72.7%)
3. Iowa State (72.7%)
3. Navy (72.7%)
6. UL-Lafayette (72.0%)
7. Georgia Southern (71.4%)
8. Toledo (69.6%)
9. FIU (68.4%)
10. Utah State (68.2%)

And for inclusion's sake...
11. Alabama (67.4%)

And on the other end of the spectrum...

Bottom 10 punt return units per Return Success Rate
128. Georgia State (10.0% -- wow)
127. UConn (20.0%)
126. Clemson (21.1%)
124. Colorado (25.0%)
124. Oregon State (25.0%)
123. Air Force (26.7%)
122. Bowling Green (28.6%)
121. LSU (29.2%)
118. Purdue (30.0%)
118. Ole Miss (30.0%)
118. Oklahoma State (30.0%)

Again, the spread between consistently successful returns and consistently unsuccessful ones is pretty large, especially considering that punts are more frequent than kickoffs for most teams.

Place-kicking

Since you don't get partial credit for field goals -- "well, that was pretty long, and he came pretty close, so it was a successful kick" -- we have to take a different approach for place-kicking, I think.

Luckily, there are direct point expectations based on a given distance. On average, for instance, college kickers made 83.9% of 28-yard field goals in 2015. Multiply that by the three points a field goal is worth, and you have an expected point value of 2.52. Give him a few kicks, keep track of the expected and actual point values, and boom. You've got a Net Point Value kind of FG metric. Divide it by the number of FGs he takes, and there you go.

(It's a little bit more complicated than that, simply because I'm using a regression equation to determine the appropriate percentages, but it's not much more complicated than that.)

Top 10 place-kicking teams per FG Net Value per Kick
1. Western Kentucky (0.61)
2. Utah (0.56)
3. Stanford (0.53)
4. North Carolina (0.49)
5. Duke (0.46)
6. Clemson (0.46)
7. Appalachian State (0.46)
8. Notre Dame (0.45)
9. Oregon (0.45)
10. Kansas State (0.45)

Bottom 10 place-kicking teams per FG Net Value per Kick
128. Wyoming (-1.23)
127. Purdue (-1.06)
126. Florida (-0.88)
125. Boston College (-0.65)
124. New Mexico (-0.64)
123. Bowling Green (-0.60)
122. NC State (-0.59)
121. Rice (-0.54)
120. Kansas (-0.53)
119. Charlotte (-0.51)

Poor Wyoming kicker Tristan Bailey missed six of eight field goals in 2015. There's probably a reason he was only asked to attempt eight. (But hey, he only missed three PATs, so it could have been worse...)

So let's (finally) tie this all together.

Special Teams S&P+, beta version

Using the success rates discussed here for punts, kicks, punt returns, and kick returns, and using the net value method for field goals, we can begin to piece together what might eventually become a Special Teams S&P+ of sorts.

What you'll below are basically two stabs at that. You'll find that five sets of ratings, and you'll find a ST S&P+ and a Weighted ST S&P+. Since not every special teams category carries the same amount of weight -- there are usually more punts than kickoffs, and you don't have a return on every punt or kickoff -- this is an attempt to ascribe more importance to the more important pieces of special teams.

I started with the weights I referenced in this piece and started to tinker with them based on what made the ratings correlate more strongly with the overall S&P+ ratings (since that's where I'll be taking this, and since, again, pieces of special teams are already in the ratings).

I ended up with the following weights: 44% place-kicking (that surprised me), 24% punting, 14% kickoffs, 14% kick returns, 3% punt returns. That's what ended up with the best correlations, but that might not be where I end up. At first glance, that feels way too high for field goals and kick returns. For now, though, it works.

Team Punt
Succ. Rt
Rk Kickoff
Succ. Rt
Rk Punt Ret.
Succ. Rt
Rk Kick Ret.
Succ. Rt
Rk FG Net
Value
Rk Wtd. ST S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk
Florida State 55.7% 2 89.3% 8 45.5% 77 56.0% 21 0.22 40 97.4% 1 97.1% 3
Duke 43.8% 16 72.8% 60 46.7% 73 52.6% 34 0.46 5 96.7% 2 91.2% 12
Appalachian State 41.2% 30 75.3% 48 33.3% 112 56.8% 17 0.46 7 96.7% 3 85.7% 22
Minnesota 41.3% 29 74.6% 55 33.3% 112 60.0% 12 0.40 16 96.3% 4 85.8% 21
Texas Tech 45.8% 13 80.4% 30 42.9% 88 49.1% 48 0.32 27 95.8% 5 90.3% 13
Memphis 41.1% 31 91.9% 2 60.7% 31 43.2% 73 0.38 19 95.5% 6 96.8% 4
Nevada 42.4% 25 70.1% 65 58.3% 33 50.0% 43 0.44 12 95.2% 7 93.6% 9
Central Florida 51.5% 6 75.6% 45 66.7% 12 60.0% 12 0.16 45 95.1% 8 98.7% 1
Kansas State 36.6% 52 70.7% 63 45.8% 76 68.0% 4 0.45 10 94.7% 9 88.4% 17
Stanford 35.4% 56 69.8% 67 41.2% 93 67.3% 6 0.53 3 94.5% 10 82.9% 23
Hawaii 47.3% 10 78.3% 37 57.7% 37 41.5% 78 0.31 29 93.7% 11 93.2% 10
Boise State 35.3% 57 85.3% 18 40.6% 96 48.3% 54 0.41 14 92.6% 12 82.6% 24
Western Kentucky 40.0% 35 50.9% 121 55.6% 42 51.3% 39 0.61 1 91.9% 13 80.2% 27
Auburn 26.9% 99 81.4% 29 66.7% 12 70.6% 2 0.43 13 91.6% 14 96.7% 5
Oregon 29.6% 88 83.8% 21 66.7% 12 51.7% 37 0.45 9 91.0% 15 95.3% 6
Utah 43.3% 20 65.1% 91 56.7% 39 35.0% 104 0.56 2 89.7% 16 75.0% 36
North Carolina 20.5% 116 86.4% 14 52.2% 52 61.3% 11 0.49 4 88.3% 17 89.2% 16
TCU 30.3% 85 84.0% 20 47.4% 68 48.6% 53 0.39 17 87.1% 18 80.9% 26
South Alabama 38.6% 43 52.4% 119 50.0% 58 52.5% 35 0.41 15 86.8% 19 69.1% 39
Oklahoma 57.9% 1 79.4% 32 40.9% 95 42.4% 75 0.12 50 86.7% 20 77.2% 32
Idaho 49.0% 8 74.0% 58 45.5% 77 28.6% 117 0.29 32 86.2% 21 65.3% 46
Iowa 21.7% 114 81.9% 25 66.7% 12 68.6% 3 0.36 22 85.7% 22 94.4% 8
Air Force 25.4% 105 75.6% 46 26.7% 123 59.4% 14 0.44 11 83.3% 23 57.6% 55
Mississippi State 34.0% 65 77.6% 38 52.6% 51 47.2% 58 0.23 39 80.4% 24 80.0% 28
Connecticut 43.4% 18 64.2% 98 20.0% 127 34.5% 107 0.35 23 79.9% 25 30.3% 89
Team Punt
Succ. Rt
Rk Kickoff
Succ. Rt
Rk Punt Ret.
Succ. Rt
Rk Kick Ret.
Succ. Rt
Rk FG Net
Value
Rk Wtd. ST S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk
Marshall 42.9% 23 86.8% 12 73.9% 2 65.5% 8 -0.13 90 79.1% 26 98.1% 2
Clemson 37.3% 49 65.7% 88 21.1% 126 36.1% 100 0.46 6 78.5% 27 27.9% 96
Temple 31.3% 80 66.3% 84 62.1% 26 51.3% 39 0.32 26 77.7% 28 78.6% 30
Miami-FL 37.9% 47 76.6% 42 45.5% 77 26.7% 118 0.31 30 77.0% 29 53.5% 61
Syracuse 52.2% 5 73.3% 59 52.9% 50 43.6% 71 0.02 67 76.5% 30 80.0% 29
Cincinnati 34.8% 61 67.4% 80 46.7% 73 46.2% 63 0.28 35 75.9% 31 57.4% 56
Virginia Tech 31.9% 77 84.2% 19 46.9% 71 26.5% 119 0.37 20 74.4% 32 54.9% 57
UCLA 25.4% 106 92.9% 1 50.0% 58 38.8% 91 0.37 21 73.7% 33 66.2% 43
Georgia Southern 35.0% 60 89.9% 6 71.4% 7 53.7% 25 -0.01 72 73.5% 34 94.9% 7
Louisiana Tech 39.3% 38 50.0% 123 56.3% 40 38.9% 87 0.33 25 73.2% 35 52.7% 62
Michigan 28.3% 93 85.9% 17 61.1% 29 57.1% 16 0.11 53 73.1% 36 90.3% 14
West Virginia 41.4% 28 70.2% 64 41.7% 90 53.1% 28 0.03 64 73.0% 37 65.8% 44
Texas A&M 36.1% 54 86.7% 13 57.9% 34 38.9% 87 0.12 49 72.7% 38 81.5% 25
USC 43.3% 21 74.7% 53 44.4% 83 48.1% 55 -0.01 71 71.2% 39 69.7% 38
Kentucky 35.1% 59 66.1% 85 54.5% 48 40.0% 83 0.28 34 70.8% 40 57.7% 54
Texas 34.2% 63 82.5% 23 65.2% 20 31.9% 113 0.19 42 69.5% 41 77.7% 31
Indiana 32.3% 74 79.1% 33 50.0% 58 29.4% 116 0.31 31 69.4% 42 54.0% 60
Pittsburgh 42.9% 23 89.9% 7 36.8% 106 48.8% 51 -0.11 86 68.3% 43 71.3% 37
Louisville 43.5% 17 80.0% 31 40.0% 97 32.3% 112 0.07 59 68.2% 44 51.6% 64
Tennessee 38.3% 45 78.7% 36 51.5% 57 74.1% 1 -0.14 91 65.8% 45 86.3% 19
Notre Dame 28.1% 95 69.4% 72 44.4% 83 35.9% 103 0.45 8 64.6% 46 31.8% 86
Arkansas State 32.4% 73 81.9% 26 63.9% 23 65.9% 7 -0.06 80 64.4% 47 91.5% 11
Virginia 38.5% 44 79.0% 34 40.0% 97 25.6% 120 0.14 47 63.9% 48 40.7% 77
Georgia Tech 27.7% 97 90.3% 4 55.0% 44 38.7% 92 0.20 41 63.8% 49 68.7% 40
Florida Atlantic 44.6% 14 82.3% 24 55.0% 44 50.0% 43 -0.19 97 62.5% 50 86.1% 20
Team Punt
Succ. Rt
Rk Kickoff
Succ. Rt
Rk Punt Ret.
Succ. Rt
Rk Kick Ret.
Succ. Rt
Rk FG Net
Value
Rk Wtd. ST S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk
BYU 28.1% 94 74.1% 57 40.0% 97 41.2% 79 0.28 33 62.4% 51 35.9% 83
Arizona 30.2% 87 69.7% 70 44.4% 83 31.3% 114 0.38 18 61.7% 52 29.2% 93
Navy 23.8% 112 61.4% 102 72.7% 3 50.0% 43 0.31 28 60.3% 53 64.7% 47
Alabama 39.1% 39 88.3% 10 67.4% 11 43.8% 69 -0.12 88 58.1% 54 87.7% 18
South Carolina 35.2% 58 88.1% 11 41.7% 90 38.2% 93 0.04 61 58.0% 55 51.9% 63
Ohio State 46.7% 11 78.8% 35 63.3% 24 52.9% 30 -0.29 111 57.6% 56 90.2% 15
Arizona State 32.4% 72 86.4% 15 51.9% 55 50.0% 43 -0.04 78 56.6% 57 75.2% 35
Nebraska 26.2% 102 68.8% 76 54.5% 48 37.1% 96 0.35 24 56.6% 58 41.5% 75
UTEP 23.4% 113 81.8% 27 44.4% 83 46.3% 62 0.17 43 56.4% 59 49.9% 67
Northern Illinois 24.7% 109 61.9% 100 61.9% 27 50.9% 42 0.25 36 56.3% 60 57.8% 53
Penn State 32.1% 75 68.2% 77 54.8% 47 32.6% 110 0.25 37 56.0% 61 42.2% 72
Houston 40.6% 33 75.0% 49 44.8% 81 39.4% 86 -0.02 74 55.4% 62 50.0% 66
Washington 24.6% 110 74.7% 54 52.2% 52 54.3% 23 0.11 52 55.2% 63 63.0% 48
San Diego State 25.0% 108 61.6% 101 34.6% 111 67.6% 5 0.16 44 53.0% 64 30.3% 88
Iowa State 38.7% 42 67.8% 79 72.7% 3 32.4% 111 0.07 58 52.5% 65 62.5% 49
Oregon State 41.7% 27 45.8% 125 25.0% 124 36.0% 101 0.14 46 52.4% 66 12.3% 112
East Carolina 33.3% 67 69.7% 68 52.2% 52 36.8% 98 0.13 48 50.8% 67 42.4% 71
Ohio 33.8% 66 65.8% 87 50.0% 58 43.2% 72 0.10 54 50.6% 68 41.7% 74
Missouri 42.0% 26 65.9% 86 44.4% 83 21.1% 126 0.07 57 48.9% 69 26.0% 99
South Florida 40.6% 33 43.9% 126 38.1% 103 65.0% 9 -0.11 85 47.1% 70 36.0% 82
UNLV 37.3% 48 64.6% 95 33.3% 112 47.1% 59 -0.01 73 46.0% 71 26.3% 98
Ole Miss 34.6% 62 91.6% 3 30.0% 118 23.5% 123 0.03 65 46.0% 72 27.3% 97
Colorado State 43.4% 19 76.0% 44 56.0% 41 41.2% 79 -0.19 96 45.2% 73 66.8% 41
Florida International 30.6% 83 69.4% 73 68.4% 9 46.9% 60 0.03 66 44.9% 74 65.7% 45
SMU 14.5% 126 88.5% 9 61.5% 28 52.7% 33 0.02 68 44.8% 75 75.5% 34
Team Punt
Succ. Rt
Rk Kickoff
Succ. Rt
Rk Punt Ret.
Succ. Rt
Rk Kick Ret.
Succ. Rt
Rk FG Net
Value
Rk Wtd. ST S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk
Fresno State 38.8% 40 81.5% 28 72.7% 3 36.0% 101 -0.13 89 44.2% 76 75.8% 33
Central Michigan 31.7% 78 67.2% 82 41.7% 90 56.8% 17 -0.03 76 43.9% 77 39.9% 78
Troy 36.1% 54 82.8% 22 57.9% 34 30.0% 115 -0.04 79 43.5% 78 59.4% 50
Oklahoma State 40.0% 35 57.9% 113 30.0% 118 47.6% 57 -0.06 81 41.5% 79 20.4% 105
Eastern Michigan 29.6% 88 75.0% 49 37.5% 104 45.8% 64 0.02 69 41.0% 80 30.4% 87
Western Michigan 16.7% 122 74.7% 52 50.0% 58 49.0% 49 0.08 55 38.5% 81 42.2% 73
California 27.7% 97 43.5% 127 64.3% 21 37.2% 95 0.24 38 37.9% 82 28.9% 94
LSU 32.8% 71 57.3% 115 29.2% 121 40.0% 83 0.11 51 36.8% 83 9.1% 114
Ball State 16.9% 121 67.2% 81 76.9% 1 52.0% 36 0.07 60 34.9% 84 58.6% 51
UL-Lafayette 49.2% 7 58.7% 110 72.0% 6 38.9% 87 -0.21 100 32.4% 85 54.4% 58
Rutgers 26.2% 102 61.3% 103 66.7% 12 52.9% 30 0.00 70 31.9% 86 51.4% 65
Army 39.6% 37 75.0% 49 45.5% 77 40.5% 82 -0.22 101 31.7% 87 38.7% 80
New Mexico 38.8% 40 90.3% 5 36.4% 108 54.1% 24 -0.64 124 31.5% 88 54.3% 59
NC State 43.1% 22 68.9% 75 50.0% 58 57.5% 15 -0.59 122 29.5% 89 57.9% 52
Wisconsin 31.0% 81 64.8% 94 65.5% 18 42.9% 74 -0.03 75 29.4% 90 45.1% 70
Utah State 37.0% 51 76.4% 43 68.2% 10 42.4% 75 -0.28 109 28.4% 91 66.3% 42
Akron 32.1% 75 60.6% 105 47.4% 68 52.9% 30 -0.11 87 27.8% 92 29.9% 90
Kent State 40.9% 32 45.9% 124 35.7% 110 56.4% 20 -0.26 106 27.6% 93 21.3% 102
Tulane 24.4% 111 74.5% 56 42.9% 88 36.2% 99 0.03 63 24.4% 94 16.1% 109
North Texas 34.2% 63 70.0% 66 55.0% 44 48.1% 55 -0.25 104 23.9% 95 46.0% 69
Wake Forest 46.5% 12 72.7% 61 36.8% 106 16.7% 127 -0.28 110 22.5% 96 16.0% 110
Florida 53.6% 3 86.2% 16 46.9% 71 15.2% 128 -0.88 126 20.2% 97 37.6% 81
Rice 37.9% 46 69.5% 71 46.7% 73 53.7% 25 -0.54 121 20.1% 98 39.7% 79
Massachusetts 30.3% 85 58.2% 112 50.0% 58 46.6% 61 -0.10 84 19.3% 99 19.8% 106
San Jose State 47.9% 9 52.2% 120 37.5% 104 45.2% 65 -0.39 115 19.3% 100 14.6% 111
Team Punt
Succ. Rt
Rk Kickoff
Succ. Rt
Rk Punt Ret.
Succ. Rt
Rk Kick Ret.
Succ. Rt
Rk FG Net
Value
Rk Wtd. ST S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk
Boston College 44.1% 15 59.1% 109 44.8% 81 53.1% 28 -0.65 125 19.1% 101 29.8% 92
Washington State 18.4% 119 64.2% 97 41.2% 93 39.5% 85 0.07 56 18.2% 102 7.0% 116
Michigan State 29.0% 90 67.9% 78 38.5% 102 56.5% 19 -0.24 103 18.0% 103 21.1% 103
Georgia 20.9% 115 71.4% 62 63.3% 24 54.8% 22 -0.21 99 16.2% 104 48.6% 68
Illinois 25.4% 107 65.0% 92 55.2% 43 45.2% 65 -0.09 83 16.1% 105 24.3% 100
Miami-OH 26.3% 101 60.0% 107 50.0% 58 32.7% 108 0.03 62 15.6% 106 8.8% 115
Texas State 32.8% 70 77.4% 39 60.0% 32 38.1% 94 -0.32 112 14.7% 107 41.4% 76
Toledo 28.9% 91 50.6% 122 69.6% 8 48.8% 51 -0.16 92 14.3% 108 32.3% 85
Arkansas 53.5% 4 60.3% 106 64.3% 21 23.7% 122 -0.43 118 14.1% 109 29.8% 91
Vanderbilt 36.6% 53 60.0% 107 38.7% 101 35.0% 104 -0.19 95 13.8% 110 6.6% 117
Middle Tennessee 15.2% 125 53.2% 118 57.1% 38 50.0% 43 -0.04 77 13.6% 111 19.0% 107
Tulsa 37.1% 50 57.5% 114 66.7% 12 37.1% 96 -0.26 105 13.1% 112 28.0% 95
Colorado 31.7% 78 69.7% 68 25.0% 124 41.2% 79 -0.27 107 10.9% 113 6.6% 118
Maryland 16.2% 124 64.9% 93 65.4% 19 41.7% 77 -0.08 82 10.3% 114 22.4% 101
Northwestern 31.0% 82 61.0% 104 30.8% 116 43.8% 69 -0.27 108 8.0% 115 4.2% 121
Georgia State 26.5% 100 75.4% 47 10.0% 128 23.1% 124 -0.16 93 7.9% 116 2.9% 125
UTSA 25.8% 104 76.8% 40 57.9% 34 44.9% 67 -0.42 117 7.8% 117 32.5% 84
Buffalo 33.3% 67 58.2% 111 50.0% 58 22.9% 125 -0.20 98 7.2% 118 5.8% 119
Southern Miss 10.2% 128 64.3% 96 51.9% 55 64.3% 10 -0.34 114 6.7% 119 20.8% 104
Wyoming 30.4% 84 65.1% 90 50.0% 58 51.5% 38 -1.23 128 5.7% 120 18.2% 108
Old Dominion 20.0% 117 26.4% 128 31.3% 115 48.9% 50 -0.18 94 5.1% 121 1.9% 126
Kansas 28.4% 92 76.7% 41 30.8% 116 38.9% 87 -0.53 120 4.5% 122 5.3% 120
Purdue 27.7% 96 63.0% 99 30.0% 118 51.2% 41 -1.06 127 3.1% 123 3.7% 122
Baylor 17.1% 120 66.4% 83 40.0% 97 44.8% 68 -0.34 113 3.1% 124 3.6% 123
Charlotte 32.9% 69 57.1% 116 61.1% 29 34.6% 106 -0.51 119 3.1% 125 10.1% 113
UL-Monroe 19.8% 118 56.9% 117 36.4% 108 53.3% 27 -0.40 116 2.9% 126 3.1% 124
New Mexico State 14.3% 127 65.7% 89 47.1% 70 24.2% 121 -0.23 102 1.9% 127 1.7% 127
Bowling Green 16.7% 122 69.2% 74 28.6% 122 32.6% 109 -0.60 123 0.7% 128 0.5% 128

The most interesting part to me here is how different my ratings are than Fremeau's http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feist. Four of our top 10 teams are the same (Duke, Memphis, KSU, Stanford), but three of my top 10 are worse than 60th in Fremeau's ratings (Minnesota is 61st, Texas Tech i64th, Nevada is 73rd). As always, that probably means that a split-the-difference, F/+ type of measure will end up being the best for this, but I haven't finalized mine yet.

The saddest part, by the way? UCF went 0-12 with one of the best special teams unit in the country. That's how bad the actual offense and defense were.