Introducing Special Teams S&P+ (beta) ratings

Last year, I redesigned the S&P+ ratings to both incorporate more factors (primarily those related to the Five Factors) and snap more properly onto a bell curve.  The results were pretty good -- the opponent adjustments are more sound, win probability projections were outstanding, and S&P+'s performance against the spread was about as good as always (~52%). As I am a tinkerer, I've already got a couple more ideas to try, so I might be updating the updates soon. At some point, I should probably try to stop doing that.

One of the things I wasn't happy with when it came to this year's S&P+ ratings was that I ran out of time in the offseason and couldn't tease out special teams ratings as I wanted to. As it stands, factors like field position (which obviously draws from kicks and returns) and finishing drives (place-kicking) are incorporated into the offensive and defensive ratings, even though that isn't a perfect fit.

Well, this isn't a perfect fit either, but it's a start: Below you can find what I'll call a beta version of Special Teams S&P+ ratings. They don't actually fit into the overall formulas yet, and it will probably take quite a bit of tinkering to get to that point, but I finally found a moment to go down this road a bit.

What should special teams efficiency ratings measure?

Let's start with that question. We can get a pretty good feel for special teams by using the go-to measures -- punting and kicking averages (and maybe touchback rates), return averages, FG percentages, etc. And if you want to go further than that, you've already got Brian Fremeau's ratings to fall back on; I've referenced them frequently through the years.

I had a vision of my own that I wanted to pursue, however, and it revolves around the same success rate concept that make up such a large portion of my offensive and defensive ratings.

Special teams is the ultimate small-sample exercise.

Kickoffs

We determine good and bad kick or return teams based on just a handful of samples. For instance, the five worst teams in the country by opponent kick return average were Texas State, Arizona State, Georgia State, Hawaii, and Missouri. These five each allowed at least 26.5 yards per return, which is quite bad. But the five also covered an average of just 22.6 returns in 2015, fewer than two per game. The top three rushers in college football averaged more than 22.6 carries per game.

With such a small sample, just one or two big returns can drastically skew your averages. Hawaii, ASU, and Texas State each allowed a kick return touchdown, while eight other teams allowed two and Louisiana Tech allowed three.

Really, though, what happens after about 30 yards is pretty random, just as big plays are to some degree random on offense and defense. Your goal as a return unit is to get your man to about the 30 or 40, then hope he's able to find an angle that allows him to go much further; your goal as a kick coverage unit is to hem the guy in before he gets to that point.

So what happens if we eliminate onside kicks and judge a kickoff or return unit by simply how frequently returns were hemmed in at a certain baseline?

On average, kickoffs netted about 40-41 yards per kick in 2015. Since touchbacks net 40 yards, the median falls in the same range, too. So what if we simply deemed kickoffs that net 40 yards or more a success? And what if we deem returns that create net yards of 39 or fewer yards successes in the opposite direction?

Top 10 kick coverage teams per Kickoff Success Rate
1. UCLA (92.9%)
2. Memphis (91.9%)
3. Ole Miss (91.6%)
4. Georgia Tech (90.3%)
5. New Mexico (90.3%)
6. Georgia Southern (89.9%)
7. PItt (89.9%)
8. Florida State (89.3%)
9. SMU (88.5%)
10. Alabama (88.3%)

The three teams in italics were also in the top 10 for kick return average, but the other seven were not.

Judging kicks in this rather simple way changes how we view kick coverage in general. A healthy 38% of kickoffs are touchbacks on average, and if you're really good at booting the ball through the end zone, you don't have to really worry about how good your coverage unit is -- you're producing good field position regardless, and that's the primary goal here.

UCLA allowed a pretty poor 23.8 yards per return in 2015, 112th in the country. But the Bruins were pinning opponents at or inside the 25 on about 23 of every 25 kicks, so who cares?

Bottom 10 kick coverage teams per Kickoff Success Rate
128. Old Dominion (26.4%)
127. California (43.5%)
126. South Florida (43.9%)
125. Oregon State (45.8%)
124. Kent State (45.9%)
123. Louisiana Tech (50.0%)
122. Toledo (50.6%)
121. Western Kentucky (50.9%)
120. San Jose State (52.2%)
119. South Alabama (52.4%)

Kent State and SJSU were among the bottom 10 in average return allowed. The other eight were not.

Meanwhile, Old Dominion allowed 'only' 19.8 yards per return, 37th in the country. But only 1.9% of the Monarchs' kickoffs were touchbacks. A 20-yard return gets you pretty far if you're fielding it at the 10.

But looking at net kickoff yardage (instead of just return yards) and focusing more on success rates than averages, we get a better view of the teams that were most consistent.

So what about returns? If we eliminate touchbacks and non-returns and simply deem a successful return as something that results in an unsuccessful kickoff, what do we get?

Top 10 kick return units per Return Success Rate
1. Tennessee (74.1%)
2. Auburn (70.6%)
3. Iowa (68.6%)
4. Kansas State (68.0%)
5. San Diego State (67.6%)
6. Stanford (67.3%)
7. Arkansas State (65.9%)
8. Marshall (65.5%)
9. South Florida (65.0%)
10. Southern Miss (64.3%)

Five of 10 were also in the top 10 in return average. As you would probably assume, there's more continuity there.

Bottom 10 kick return units per Return Success Rate
128. Florida (15.2%)
127. Wake Forest (16.7%)
126. Missouri (21.1%)
125. Buffalo (22.9%)
124. Georgia State (23.1%)
123. Ole Miss (23.5%)
122. Arkansas (23.7%)
121. New Mexico State (24.2%)
120. Virginia (25.6%)
119. Virginia Tech (26.5%)

Again, five of 10 were in the bottom 10 in return average.

Think for a moment, however, about the advantage or disadvantage this can generate. The worst return team (Florida) was getting out past the 25 on only three of 20 returns on average; the best (Tennessee) was doing so on 15 of 20. Even at only two to four returns per game, that can generate a healthy field position margin by itself.

Punting

Punting is a little bit trickier to measure since it doesn't take place from the same spot on the field every time (well, almost every time). The average punt netted about 37.3 yards in 2015, but depending on where you're punting from, that average shifts dramatically.

Here's a look at the average net punting yards in 2015 by yard line (i.e. punting when you're lined up at the 1 or the 28 or the 49 or whatever).

That's a pretty perfect polynomial right there. If you're punting with your feet in the end zone, you might be taking a shorter approach to make sure you get the kick off. If you're punting from the opponent's 40 -- and yes, it is okay to sometimes do that -- then setting the bar at 37.5 net yards is pretty tough (here's your reminder that touchbacks cut 20 yards from your net).

So for determining punt success rates, what if we just set the bar based on the trend line above? If you're punting from the 1, a successful punt nets more than 33.2 yards. If you're punting from your 35, it's 39.5 yards. From the opponent's 45, 31.5. This gives you a moving target and doesn't punish punters who end up taking more snaps from their end zone or from deeper in opponent territory.

So what does this produce?

Top 10 punt units per Punting Success Rate
1. Oklahoma (57.9%)
2. Florida State (55.7%)
3. Florida (53.6%)
4. Arkansas (53.5%)
5. Syracuse (52.2%)
6. UCF (51.5%)
7. UL-Lafayette (49.2%)
8. Idaho (49.0%)
9. San Jose State (47.9%)
10. Hawaii (47.3%)

Only two of these teams -- FSU and SJSU -- were also in the top 10 for punting average. Consider this Cason Beatty's Redemption, as FSU's much maligned punter had one hell of a fall. Meanwhile, everybody's favorite fat punter, Utah's Ray Guy Award winner Tom Hackett, ranked only 20th when it came to meeting this bar with frequency. He had a cannon for a right leg (48.0 yards per punt), but maybe the driver isn't always the best club to use.

Bottom 10 punt units per Punting Success Rate
128. Southern Miss (10.2% -- wow)
127. NMSU (14.3%)
126. SMU (14.5%)
125. Middle Tennessee (15.2%)
124. Maryland (16.2%)
122. Bowling Green (16.7%)
122. Western Michigan (16.7%)
121. Ball State (16.9%)
120. Baylor (17.1%)
119. Washington State (18.4%)

So what about returns? Because punters sometimes try to avoid awesome return men, I was tempted to include punts out of bounds in the sample here, but for now, let's just do what we did with kickoffs: look at punt returns that result in unsuccessful punts.

Top 10 punt return units per Return Success Rate
1. Ball State (76.9%)
2. Marshall (73.9%)
3. Fresno State (72.7%)
3. Iowa State (72.7%)
3. Navy (72.7%)
6. UL-Lafayette (72.0%)
7. Georgia Southern (71.4%)
8. Toledo (69.6%)
9. FIU (68.4%)
10. Utah State (68.2%)

And for inclusion's sake...
11. Alabama (67.4%)

And on the other end of the spectrum...

Bottom 10 punt return units per Return Success Rate
128. Georgia State (10.0% -- wow)
127. UConn (20.0%)
126. Clemson (21.1%)
124. Colorado (25.0%)
124. Oregon State (25.0%)
123. Air Force (26.7%)
122. Bowling Green (28.6%)
121. LSU (29.2%)
118. Purdue (30.0%)
118. Ole Miss (30.0%)
118. Oklahoma State (30.0%)

Again, the spread between consistently successful returns and consistently unsuccessful ones is pretty large, especially considering that punts are more frequent than kickoffs for most teams.

Place-kicking

Since you don't get partial credit for field goals -- "well, that was pretty long, and he came pretty close, so it was a successful kick" -- we have to take a different approach for place-kicking, I think.

Luckily, there are direct point expectations based on a given distance. On average, for instance, college kickers made 83.9% of 28-yard field goals in 2015. Multiply that by the three points a field goal is worth, and you have an expected point value of 2.52. Give him a few kicks, keep track of the expected and actual point values, and boom. You've got a Net Point Value kind of FG metric. Divide it by the number of FGs he takes, and there you go.

(It's a little bit more complicated than that, simply because I'm using a regression equation to determine the appropriate percentages, but it's not much more complicated than that.)

Top 10 place-kicking teams per FG Net Value per Kick
1. Western Kentucky (0.61)
2. Utah (0.56)
3. Stanford (0.53)
4. North Carolina (0.49)
5. Duke (0.46)
6. Clemson (0.46)
7. Appalachian State (0.46)
8. Notre Dame (0.45)
9. Oregon (0.45)
10. Kansas State (0.45)

Bottom 10 place-kicking teams per FG Net Value per Kick
128. Wyoming (-1.23)
127. Purdue (-1.06)
126. Florida (-0.88)
125. Boston College (-0.65)
124. New Mexico (-0.64)
123. Bowling Green (-0.60)
122. NC State (-0.59)
121. Rice (-0.54)
120. Kansas (-0.53)
119. Charlotte (-0.51)

Poor Wyoming kicker Tristan Bailey missed six of eight field goals in 2015. There's probably a reason he was only asked to attempt eight. (But hey, he only missed three PATs, so it could have been worse...)

So let's (finally) tie this all together.

Special Teams S&P+, beta version

Using the success rates discussed here for punts, kicks, punt returns, and kick returns, and using the net value method for field goals, we can begin to piece together what might eventually become a Special Teams S&P+ of sorts.

What you'll below are basically two stabs at that. You'll find that five sets of ratings, and you'll find a ST S&P+ and a Weighted ST S&P+. Since not every special teams category carries the same amount of weight -- there are usually more punts than kickoffs, and you don't have a return on every punt or kickoff -- this is an attempt to ascribe more importance to the more important pieces of special teams.

I started with the weights I referenced in this piece and started to tinker with them based on what made the ratings correlate more strongly with the overall S&P+ ratings (since that's where I'll be taking this, and since, again, pieces of special teams are already in the ratings).

I ended up with the following weights: 44% place-kicking (that surprised me), 24% punting, 14% kickoffs, 14% kick returns, 3% punt returns. That's what ended up with the best correlations, but that might not be where I end up. At first glance, that feels way too high for field goals and kick returns. For now, though, it works.

Team	Punt Succ. Rt	Rk	Kickoff Succ. Rt	Rk	Punt Ret. Succ. Rt	Rk	Kick Ret. Succ. Rt	Rk	FG Net Value	Rk	Wtd. ST S&P+	Rk	ST S&P+	Rk
Florida State	55.7%	2	89.3%	8	45.5%	77	56.0%	21	0.22	40	97.4%	1	97.1%	3
Duke	43.8%	16	72.8%	60	46.7%	73	52.6%	34	0.46	5	96.7%	2	91.2%	12
Appalachian State	41.2%	30	75.3%	48	33.3%	112	56.8%	17	0.46	7	96.7%	3	85.7%	22
Minnesota	41.3%	29	74.6%	55	33.3%	112	60.0%	12	0.40	16	96.3%	4	85.8%	21
Texas Tech	45.8%	13	80.4%	30	42.9%	88	49.1%	48	0.32	27	95.8%	5	90.3%	13
Memphis	41.1%	31	91.9%	2	60.7%	31	43.2%	73	0.38	19	95.5%	6	96.8%	4
Nevada	42.4%	25	70.1%	65	58.3%	33	50.0%	43	0.44	12	95.2%	7	93.6%	9
Central Florida	51.5%	6	75.6%	45	66.7%	12	60.0%	12	0.16	45	95.1%	8	98.7%	1
Kansas State	36.6%	52	70.7%	63	45.8%	76	68.0%	4	0.45	10	94.7%	9	88.4%	17
Stanford	35.4%	56	69.8%	67	41.2%	93	67.3%	6	0.53	3	94.5%	10	82.9%	23
Hawaii	47.3%	10	78.3%	37	57.7%	37	41.5%	78	0.31	29	93.7%	11	93.2%	10
Boise State	35.3%	57	85.3%	18	40.6%	96	48.3%	54	0.41	14	92.6%	12	82.6%	24
Western Kentucky	40.0%	35	50.9%	121	55.6%	42	51.3%	39	0.61	1	91.9%	13	80.2%	27
Auburn	26.9%	99	81.4%	29	66.7%	12	70.6%	2	0.43	13	91.6%	14	96.7%	5
Oregon	29.6%	88	83.8%	21	66.7%	12	51.7%	37	0.45	9	91.0%	15	95.3%	6
Utah	43.3%	20	65.1%	91	56.7%	39	35.0%	104	0.56	2	89.7%	16	75.0%	36
North Carolina	20.5%	116	86.4%	14	52.2%	52	61.3%	11	0.49	4	88.3%	17	89.2%	16
TCU	30.3%	85	84.0%	20	47.4%	68	48.6%	53	0.39	17	87.1%	18	80.9%	26
South Alabama	38.6%	43	52.4%	119	50.0%	58	52.5%	35	0.41	15	86.8%	19	69.1%	39
Oklahoma	57.9%	1	79.4%	32	40.9%	95	42.4%	75	0.12	50	86.7%	20	77.2%	32
Idaho	49.0%	8	74.0%	58	45.5%	77	28.6%	117	0.29	32	86.2%	21	65.3%	46
Iowa	21.7%	114	81.9%	25	66.7%	12	68.6%	3	0.36	22	85.7%	22	94.4%	8
Air Force	25.4%	105	75.6%	46	26.7%	123	59.4%	14	0.44	11	83.3%	23	57.6%	55
Mississippi State	34.0%	65	77.6%	38	52.6%	51	47.2%	58	0.23	39	80.4%	24	80.0%	28
Connecticut	43.4%	18	64.2%	98	20.0%	127	34.5%	107	0.35	23	79.9%	25	30.3%	89
Team	Punt Succ. Rt	Rk	Kickoff Succ. Rt	Rk	Punt Ret. Succ. Rt	Rk	Kick Ret. Succ. Rt	Rk	FG Net Value	Rk	Wtd. ST S&P+	Rk	ST S&P+	Rk
Marshall	42.9%	23	86.8%	12	73.9%	2	65.5%	8	-0.13	90	79.1%	26	98.1%	2
Clemson	37.3%	49	65.7%	88	21.1%	126	36.1%	100	0.46	6	78.5%	27	27.9%	96
Temple	31.3%	80	66.3%	84	62.1%	26	51.3%	39	0.32	26	77.7%	28	78.6%	30
Miami-FL	37.9%	47	76.6%	42	45.5%	77	26.7%	118	0.31	30	77.0%	29	53.5%	61
Syracuse	52.2%	5	73.3%	59	52.9%	50	43.6%	71	0.02	67	76.5%	30	80.0%	29
Cincinnati	34.8%	61	67.4%	80	46.7%	73	46.2%	63	0.28	35	75.9%	31	57.4%	56
Virginia Tech	31.9%	77	84.2%	19	46.9%	71	26.5%	119	0.37	20	74.4%	32	54.9%	57
UCLA	25.4%	106	92.9%	1	50.0%	58	38.8%	91	0.37	21	73.7%	33	66.2%	43
Georgia Southern	35.0%	60	89.9%	6	71.4%	7	53.7%	25	-0.01	72	73.5%	34	94.9%	7
Louisiana Tech	39.3%	38	50.0%	123	56.3%	40	38.9%	87	0.33	25	73.2%	35	52.7%	62
Michigan	28.3%	93	85.9%	17	61.1%	29	57.1%	16	0.11	53	73.1%	36	90.3%	14
West Virginia	41.4%	28	70.2%	64	41.7%	90	53.1%	28	0.03	64	73.0%	37	65.8%	44
Texas A&M	36.1%	54	86.7%	13	57.9%	34	38.9%	87	0.12	49	72.7%	38	81.5%	25
USC	43.3%	21	74.7%	53	44.4%	83	48.1%	55	-0.01	71	71.2%	39	69.7%	38
Kentucky	35.1%	59	66.1%	85	54.5%	48	40.0%	83	0.28	34	70.8%	40	57.7%	54
Texas	34.2%	63	82.5%	23	65.2%	20	31.9%	113	0.19	42	69.5%	41	77.7%	31
Indiana	32.3%	74	79.1%	33	50.0%	58	29.4%	116	0.31	31	69.4%	42	54.0%	60
Pittsburgh	42.9%	23	89.9%	7	36.8%	106	48.8%	51	-0.11	86	68.3%	43	71.3%	37
Louisville	43.5%	17	80.0%	31	40.0%	97	32.3%	112	0.07	59	68.2%	44	51.6%	64
Tennessee	38.3%	45	78.7%	36	51.5%	57	74.1%	1	-0.14	91	65.8%	45	86.3%	19
Notre Dame	28.1%	95	69.4%	72	44.4%	83	35.9%	103	0.45	8	64.6%	46	31.8%	86
Arkansas State	32.4%	73	81.9%	26	63.9%	23	65.9%	7	-0.06	80	64.4%	47	91.5%	11
Virginia	38.5%	44	79.0%	34	40.0%	97	25.6%	120	0.14	47	63.9%	48	40.7%	77
Georgia Tech	27.7%	97	90.3%	4	55.0%	44	38.7%	92	0.20	41	63.8%	49	68.7%	40
Florida Atlantic	44.6%	14	82.3%	24	55.0%	44	50.0%	43	-0.19	97	62.5%	50	86.1%	20
Team	Punt Succ. Rt	Rk	Kickoff Succ. Rt	Rk	Punt Ret. Succ. Rt	Rk	Kick Ret. Succ. Rt	Rk	FG Net Value	Rk	Wtd. ST S&P+	Rk	ST S&P+	Rk
BYU	28.1%	94	74.1%	57	40.0%	97	41.2%	79	0.28	33	62.4%	51	35.9%	83
Arizona	30.2%	87	69.7%	70	44.4%	83	31.3%	114	0.38	18	61.7%	52	29.2%	93
Navy	23.8%	112	61.4%	102	72.7%	3	50.0%	43	0.31	28	60.3%	53	64.7%	47
Alabama	39.1%	39	88.3%	10	67.4%	11	43.8%	69	-0.12	88	58.1%	54	87.7%	18
South Carolina	35.2%	58	88.1%	11	41.7%	90	38.2%	93	0.04	61	58.0%	55	51.9%	63
Ohio State	46.7%	11	78.8%	35	63.3%	24	52.9%	30	-0.29	111	57.6%	56	90.2%	15
Arizona State	32.4%	72	86.4%	15	51.9%	55	50.0%	43	-0.04	78	56.6%	57	75.2%	35
Nebraska	26.2%	102	68.8%	76	54.5%	48	37.1%	96	0.35	24	56.6%	58	41.5%	75
UTEP	23.4%	113	81.8%	27	44.4%	83	46.3%	62	0.17	43	56.4%	59	49.9%	67
Northern Illinois	24.7%	109	61.9%	100	61.9%	27	50.9%	42	0.25	36	56.3%	60	57.8%	53
Penn State	32.1%	75	68.2%	77	54.8%	47	32.6%	110	0.25	37	56.0%	61	42.2%	72
Houston	40.6%	33	75.0%	49	44.8%	81	39.4%	86	-0.02	74	55.4%	62	50.0%	66
Washington	24.6%	110	74.7%	54	52.2%	52	54.3%	23	0.11	52	55.2%	63	63.0%	48
San Diego State	25.0%	108	61.6%	101	34.6%	111	67.6%	5	0.16	44	53.0%	64	30.3%	88
Iowa State	38.7%	42	67.8%	79	72.7%	3	32.4%	111	0.07	58	52.5%	65	62.5%	49
Oregon State	41.7%	27	45.8%	125	25.0%	124	36.0%	101	0.14	46	52.4%	66	12.3%	112
East Carolina	33.3%	67	69.7%	68	52.2%	52	36.8%	98	0.13	48	50.8%	67	42.4%	71
Ohio	33.8%	66	65.8%	87	50.0%	58	43.2%	72	0.10	54	50.6%	68	41.7%	74
Missouri	42.0%	26	65.9%	86	44.4%	83	21.1%	126	0.07	57	48.9%	69	26.0%	99
South Florida	40.6%	33	43.9%	126	38.1%	103	65.0%	9	-0.11	85	47.1%	70	36.0%	82
UNLV	37.3%	48	64.6%	95	33.3%	112	47.1%	59	-0.01	73	46.0%	71	26.3%	98
Ole Miss	34.6%	62	91.6%	3	30.0%	118	23.5%	123	0.03	65	46.0%	72	27.3%	97
Colorado State	43.4%	19	76.0%	44	56.0%	41	41.2%	79	-0.19	96	45.2%	73	66.8%	41
Florida International	30.6%	83	69.4%	73	68.4%	9	46.9%	60	0.03	66	44.9%	74	65.7%	45
SMU	14.5%	126	88.5%	9	61.5%	28	52.7%	33	0.02	68	44.8%	75	75.5%	34
Team	Punt Succ. Rt	Rk	Kickoff Succ. Rt	Rk	Punt Ret. Succ. Rt	Rk	Kick Ret. Succ. Rt	Rk	FG Net Value	Rk	Wtd. ST S&P+	Rk	ST S&P+	Rk
Fresno State	38.8%	40	81.5%	28	72.7%	3	36.0%	101	-0.13	89	44.2%	76	75.8%	33
Central Michigan	31.7%	78	67.2%	82	41.7%	90	56.8%	17	-0.03	76	43.9%	77	39.9%	78
Troy	36.1%	54	82.8%	22	57.9%	34	30.0%	115	-0.04	79	43.5%	78	59.4%	50
Oklahoma State	40.0%	35	57.9%	113	30.0%	118	47.6%	57	-0.06	81	41.5%	79	20.4%	105
Eastern Michigan	29.6%	88	75.0%	49	37.5%	104	45.8%	64	0.02	69	41.0%	80	30.4%	87
Western Michigan	16.7%	122	74.7%	52	50.0%	58	49.0%	49	0.08	55	38.5%	81	42.2%	73
California	27.7%	97	43.5%	127	64.3%	21	37.2%	95	0.24	38	37.9%	82	28.9%	94
LSU	32.8%	71	57.3%	115	29.2%	121	40.0%	83	0.11	51	36.8%	83	9.1%	114
Ball State	16.9%	121	67.2%	81	76.9%	1	52.0%	36	0.07	60	34.9%	84	58.6%	51
UL-Lafayette	49.2%	7	58.7%	110	72.0%	6	38.9%	87	-0.21	100	32.4%	85	54.4%	58
Rutgers	26.2%	102	61.3%	103	66.7%	12	52.9%	30	0.00	70	31.9%	86	51.4%	65
Army	39.6%	37	75.0%	49	45.5%	77	40.5%	82	-0.22	101	31.7%	87	38.7%	80
New Mexico	38.8%	40	90.3%	5	36.4%	108	54.1%	24	-0.64	124	31.5%	88	54.3%	59
NC State	43.1%	22	68.9%	75	50.0%	58	57.5%	15	-0.59	122	29.5%	89	57.9%	52
Wisconsin	31.0%	81	64.8%	94	65.5%	18	42.9%	74	-0.03	75	29.4%	90	45.1%	70
Utah State	37.0%	51	76.4%	43	68.2%	10	42.4%	75	-0.28	109	28.4%	91	66.3%	42
Akron	32.1%	75	60.6%	105	47.4%	68	52.9%	30	-0.11	87	27.8%	92	29.9%	90
Kent State	40.9%	32	45.9%	124	35.7%	110	56.4%	20	-0.26	106	27.6%	93	21.3%	102
Tulane	24.4%	111	74.5%	56	42.9%	88	36.2%	99	0.03	63	24.4%	94	16.1%	109
North Texas	34.2%	63	70.0%	66	55.0%	44	48.1%	55	-0.25	104	23.9%	95	46.0%	69
Wake Forest	46.5%	12	72.7%	61	36.8%	106	16.7%	127	-0.28	110	22.5%	96	16.0%	110
Florida	53.6%	3	86.2%	16	46.9%	71	15.2%	128	-0.88	126	20.2%	97	37.6%	81
Rice	37.9%	46	69.5%	71	46.7%	73	53.7%	25	-0.54	121	20.1%	98	39.7%	79
Massachusetts	30.3%	85	58.2%	112	50.0%	58	46.6%	61	-0.10	84	19.3%	99	19.8%	106
San Jose State	47.9%	9	52.2%	120	37.5%	104	45.2%	65	-0.39	115	19.3%	100	14.6%	111
Team	Punt Succ. Rt	Rk	Kickoff Succ. Rt	Rk	Punt Ret. Succ. Rt	Rk	Kick Ret. Succ. Rt	Rk	FG Net Value	Rk	Wtd. ST S&P+	Rk	ST S&P+	Rk
Boston College	44.1%	15	59.1%	109	44.8%	81	53.1%	28	-0.65	125	19.1%	101	29.8%	92
Washington State	18.4%	119	64.2%	97	41.2%	93	39.5%	85	0.07	56	18.2%	102	7.0%	116
Michigan State	29.0%	90	67.9%	78	38.5%	102	56.5%	19	-0.24	103	18.0%	103	21.1%	103
Georgia	20.9%	115	71.4%	62	63.3%	24	54.8%	22	-0.21	99	16.2%	104	48.6%	68
Illinois	25.4%	107	65.0%	92	55.2%	43	45.2%	65	-0.09	83	16.1%	105	24.3%	100
Miami-OH	26.3%	101	60.0%	107	50.0%	58	32.7%	108	0.03	62	15.6%	106	8.8%	115
Texas State	32.8%	70	77.4%	39	60.0%	32	38.1%	94	-0.32	112	14.7%	107	41.4%	76
Toledo	28.9%	91	50.6%	122	69.6%	8	48.8%	51	-0.16	92	14.3%	108	32.3%	85
Arkansas	53.5%	4	60.3%	106	64.3%	21	23.7%	122	-0.43	118	14.1%	109	29.8%	91
Vanderbilt	36.6%	53	60.0%	107	38.7%	101	35.0%	104	-0.19	95	13.8%	110	6.6%	117
Middle Tennessee	15.2%	125	53.2%	118	57.1%	38	50.0%	43	-0.04	77	13.6%	111	19.0%	107
Tulsa	37.1%	50	57.5%	114	66.7%	12	37.1%	96	-0.26	105	13.1%	112	28.0%	95
Colorado	31.7%	78	69.7%	68	25.0%	124	41.2%	79	-0.27	107	10.9%	113	6.6%	118
Maryland	16.2%	124	64.9%	93	65.4%	19	41.7%	77	-0.08	82	10.3%	114	22.4%	101
Northwestern	31.0%	82	61.0%	104	30.8%	116	43.8%	69	-0.27	108	8.0%	115	4.2%	121
Georgia State	26.5%	100	75.4%	47	10.0%	128	23.1%	124	-0.16	93	7.9%	116	2.9%	125
UTSA	25.8%	104	76.8%	40	57.9%	34	44.9%	67	-0.42	117	7.8%	117	32.5%	84
Buffalo	33.3%	67	58.2%	111	50.0%	58	22.9%	125	-0.20	98	7.2%	118	5.8%	119
Southern Miss	10.2%	128	64.3%	96	51.9%	55	64.3%	10	-0.34	114	6.7%	119	20.8%	104
Wyoming	30.4%	84	65.1%	90	50.0%	58	51.5%	38	-1.23	128	5.7%	120	18.2%	108
Old Dominion	20.0%	117	26.4%	128	31.3%	115	48.9%	50	-0.18	94	5.1%	121	1.9%	126
Kansas	28.4%	92	76.7%	41	30.8%	116	38.9%	87	-0.53	120	4.5%	122	5.3%	120
Purdue	27.7%	96	63.0%	99	30.0%	118	51.2%	41	-1.06	127	3.1%	123	3.7%	122
Baylor	17.1%	120	66.4%	83	40.0%	97	44.8%	68	-0.34	113	3.1%	124	3.6%	123
Charlotte	32.9%	69	57.1%	116	61.1%	29	34.6%	106	-0.51	119	3.1%	125	10.1%	113
UL-Monroe	19.8%	118	56.9%	117	36.4%	108	53.3%	27	-0.40	116	2.9%	126	3.1%	124
New Mexico State	14.3%	127	65.7%	89	47.1%	70	24.2%	121	-0.23	102	1.9%	127	1.7%	127
Bowling Green	16.7%	122	69.2%	74	28.6%	122	32.6%	109	-0.60	123	0.7%	128	0.5%	128

The most interesting part to me here is how different my ratings are than Fremeau's http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feist. Four of our top 10 teams are the same (Duke, Memphis, KSU, Stanford), but three of my top 10 are worse than 60th in Fremeau's ratings (Minnesota is 61st, Texas Tech i64th, Nevada is 73rd). As always, that probably means that a split-the-difference, F/+ type of measure will end up being the best for this, but I haven't finalized mine yet.

The saddest part, by the way? UCF went 0-12 with one of the best special teams unit in the country. That's how bad the actual offense and defense were.