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Western Kentucky 49, Central Michigan 48
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Central Michigan | Western Kentucky | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 74 | 74 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 60.8% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 30.6 | 35.4 | 30.0 |
| Possessions | 13 | 13 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
9 | 9 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 5.33 | 5.44 | 4.65 |
| Leverage Rate** | 66.7% | 66.7% | 68.3% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.683 | 0.664 | 0.506 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Central Michigan | Western Kentucky | |
| Total | 44.9 | 43.6 | |
| Rushing | 6.9 | 10.9 | |
| Passing | 38.0 | 32.8 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Central Michigan | Western Kentucky | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 48.7% | 49.0% | 41.8% |
| Rushing (close) | 41.7% | 30.0% | 43.2% |
| Passing (close) | 51.9% | 61.3% | 40.3% |
| Standard Downs | 50.0% | 41.2% | 47.0% |
| Passing Downs | 46.2% | 64.7% | 30.6% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Central Michigan | Western Kentucky | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.46 | 1.36 | 0.86 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.61 | 0.94 | 0.74 |
| Passing (close) | 1.77 | 1.49 | 0.99 |
| Standard Downs | 1.42 | 1.64 | 0.77 |
| Passing Downs | 1.57 | 1.01 | 1.13 |
| Line Stats | Central Michigan | Western Kentucky | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 2.91 | 2.56 | 2.92 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 6.7% | 0.0% | 4.8% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.6% |
| Turnovers | Central Michigan | Western Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 1 | 2 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 4.9 | 11.9 |
| Turnover Margin | Central Michigan +1 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Western Kentucky +0.08 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Central Michigan +1.08 | |
| TO Points Margin | Central Michigan +7.1 points | |
| Situational | Central Michigan | Western Kentucky |
| Q1 S&P | 0.633 | 0.710 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.555 | 0.747 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.209 | 0.624 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.884 | 0.196 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.576 | 0.569 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.681 | 0.692 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.607 | 0.665 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Central Michigan by 8.3 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Western Kentucky by 1 | ||
For some strange reason, it always amuses me to look at a wild, ridiculous game with a sober set of numbers. Both teams created scoring chances in nine of 13 possessions and created nearly matching efficiency and explosiveness numbers. CMU's turnovers luck nearly pushed the Chippewas over the top, but they came up just short.
Oh yeah, and WKU scored 49 of the game's first 63 points, and CMU went on a 34-0 run in the fourth quarter, capped by the wildest Hail Mary you'll ever see. That, too.
And here's where I recall what I said in my day-after Numerical:
I don't want to ever hear someone saying there are too many bowls again. Every bowl is bonus football and a chance to see something you've never seen before. If we wanted to create 64 bowls and let the two worst teams in the country take each other on from an aircraft carrier or from farmland in the middle of Montana, I would watch, just in case.