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Pinstripe Bowl Study Hall: Penn State 31, Boston College 30

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Penn State 31, Boston College 30

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Boston College Penn State Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 66 79
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 36.6 34.1 30.0
Possessions 14 13
Scoring Opportunities*
7 9
Points Per Opportunity 4.43 3.44 4.65
Leverage Rate** 59.1% 67.1% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.516 0.535 0.506
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Boston College Penn State
Total 27.1 30.7
Rushing 19.0 5.6
Passing 8.1 25.1
Success Rate (what's this?) Boston College Penn State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 28.8% 45.6% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 31.1% 29.6% 43.2%
Passing (close) 23.8% 53.9% 40.3%
Standard Downs 38.5% 47.2% 47.0%
Passing Downs 14.8% 42.3% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Boston College Penn State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.43 0.85 0.86
Rushing (close) 1.36 0.70 0.74
Passing (close) 1.62 0.90 0.99
Standard Downs 1.08 0.55 0.77
Passing Downs 2.74 1.54 1.13
Line Stats Boston College Penn State Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.01 2.14 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 3.1% 4.8%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 7.1% 5.0% 7.6%
Turnovers Boston College Penn State
Turnovers 0 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 0.0 8.6
Turnover Margin Boston College +2
Exp. TO Margin Boston College +1.46
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Boston College +0.54
TO Points Margin Boston College +8.6 points
Situational Boston College Penn State
Q1 S&P 0.871 0.590
Q2 S&P 0.282 0.206
Q3 S&P 0.690 0.524
Q4 S&P 0.401 0.618
1st Down S&P 0.325 0.355
2nd Down S&P 0.641 0.585
3rd Down S&P 0.607 0.743
Projected Scoring Margin: Boston College by 5.0
Actual Scoring Margin: Penn State by 1

If not for some dreadful drive finishing, Penn State would have won this game by 10. And if not for a missed PAT, BC would have at least sent the game to a second OT. Ifs, buts, etc. BC generated some huge plays but couldn't sustain enough of the mundane ones against Bob Shoop's defense, and while PSU couldn't even pretend to run the ball, Christian Hackenberg played wonderfully.

Again, that Christmas-to-New Year's stretch was fantastic.