Tennessee 45, Iowa 28
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|Close Rate (non-garbage time)||37.4%|
|Avg Starting FP||26.6||39.2||30.0|
|Points Per Opportunity||5.60||5.00||4.65|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
|EqPts (what's this?)||Iowa||Tennessee|
|Success Rate (what's this?)||Iowa||Tennessee||Nat'l Avg|
|IsoPPP (what's this?)||Iowa||Tennessee||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Stats||Iowa||Tennessee||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Yards/Carry (what's this?)||1.46||5.20||2.92|
|Std. Downs Sack Rt.||0.0%||0.0%||4.8%|
|Pass. Downs Sack Rt.||0.0%||0.0%||7.6%|
|Turnover Points (what's this?)||9.3||6.4|
|Turnover Margin||Tennessee +1|
|Exp. TO Margin||Tennessee +1.39|
|TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin)||Iowa +0.39|
|TO Points Margin||Tennessee +3.0 points|
|1st Down S&P||0.604||0.650|
|2nd Down S&P||0.472||0.633|
|3rd Down S&P||0.459||0.518|
|Projected Scoring Margin: Tennessee by 10.9|
|Actual Scoring Margin: Tennessee by 17|
With Dobbs, they won three of four to finish the regular season, but even in that stretch they only looked great once, in a 50-14 win over Kentucky. That they came back to win at South Carolina was an excellent sign for a young team, and that they survived a sketchy performance to take down Vanderbilt suggested maturity.
Still, this was a borderline top-40 team that, with quite a bit of returning experience, should expect to approach a top-25 level next year.
But following Friday's dominance, a top-30 2015 might end up a disappointment. The bowl bump, one of the most unfair rewards for a strong bowl performance, could set the bar higher than the Vols can reach. Just ask 2012 West Virginia, which was rewarded for its 2012 Orange Bowl decimation of Clemson with a No. 11 preseason ranking and went 7-6. Or 2014 Oklahoma, which finished 2013 by beating Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, began this season ranked fourth in the country, then fell apart.
Brakes or no, though, this was a dominant performance. Iowa put on a garbage-time performance for the ages, finishing the game on a 21-3 run after everybody had stopped paying attention. But in non-garbage time, the Hawkeyes run success rate was 0%. ZERO. Standard downs success rate: 0%. They were basically starting every drive at second-and-9. Meanwhile, the Vols were starting every drive at second-and-2. If Tennessee had wanted to keep the foot on the accelerator, the Vols could have won by 50.