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Arizona State 36, Duke 31
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Arizona State | Duke | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 69 | 77 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 34.0 | 29.1 | 30.0 |
| Possessions | 11 | 9 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
7 | 6 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 5.29 | 4.00 | 4.65 |
| Leverage Rate** | 69.6% | 64.9% | 68.3% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.532 | 0.488 | 0.506 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Arizona State | Duke | |
| Total | 26.7 | 24.9 | |
| Rushing | 12.4 | 8.2 | |
| Passing | 14.2 | 16.8 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Arizona State | Duke | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 44.9% | 41.6% | 41.8% |
| Rushing (close) | 46.9% | 45.5% | 43.2% |
| Passing (close) | 43.2% | 36.4% | 40.3% |
| Standard Downs | 47.9% | 46.0% | 47.0% |
| Passing Downs | 38.1% | 33.3% | 30.6% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Arizona State | Duke | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 0.86 | 0.78 | 0.86 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.83 | 0.41 | 0.74 |
| Passing (close) | 0.89 | 1.40 | 0.99 |
| Standard Downs | 0.95 | 0.68 | 0.77 |
| Passing Downs | 0.61 | 1.04 | 1.13 |
| Line Stats | Arizona State | Duke | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.66 | 3.23 | 2.92 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 11.5% | 0.0% | 4.8% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.6% |
| Turnovers | Arizona State | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 0 | 2 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 0.0 | 12.6 |
| Turnover Margin | Arizona State +2 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Duke +0.29 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Arizona State +2.29 | |
| TO Points Margin | Arizona State +12.6 points | |
| Situational | Arizona State | Duke |
| Q1 S&P | 0.657 | 0.379 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.426 | 0.588 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.607 | 0.575 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.468 | 0.524 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.628 | 0.308 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.486 | 0.470 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.334 | 0.596 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Arizona State by 14.4 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Arizona State by 5 | ||
Both teams make huge special teams plays and explosive runs (ASU) and passes (ASU and Duke). Duke comes back from double digits down to take the lead, and ASU responds. Tension, release, etc. The week between Christmas and New Year's seemed to have more super-fun games than normal, and this was in that collection.
It really was a wonder ASU didn't run away with this, though. The Sun Devils had better field position, finished drives better, and benefited from some pretty severe turnovers luck. They probably should have won by two touchdowns, but Duke emptied the bag of special teams tricks and nearly stole the game.