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Sun Bowl Study Hall: Arizona State 36, Duke 31

Ivan Pierre Aguirre-USA TODAY Sports

Arizona State 36, Duke 31

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Arizona State Duke Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 69 77
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 34.0 29.1 30.0
Possessions 11 9
Scoring Opportunities*
7 6
Points Per Opportunity 5.29 4.00 4.65
Leverage Rate** 69.6% 64.9% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.532 0.488 0.506
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Arizona State Duke
Total 26.7 24.9
Rushing 12.4 8.2
Passing 14.2 16.8
Success Rate (what's this?) Arizona State Duke Nat'l Avg
All (close) 44.9% 41.6% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 46.9% 45.5% 43.2%
Passing (close) 43.2% 36.4% 40.3%
Standard Downs 47.9% 46.0% 47.0%
Passing Downs 38.1% 33.3% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Arizona State Duke Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.86 0.78 0.86
Rushing (close) 0.83 0.41 0.74
Passing (close) 0.89 1.40 0.99
Standard Downs 0.95 0.68 0.77
Passing Downs 0.61 1.04 1.13
Line Stats Arizona State Duke Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.66 3.23 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 11.5% 0.0% 4.8%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 7.6%
Turnovers Arizona State Duke
Turnovers 0 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 0.0 12.6
Turnover Margin Arizona State +2
Exp. TO Margin Duke +0.29
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Arizona State +2.29
TO Points Margin Arizona State +12.6 points
Situational Arizona State Duke
Q1 S&P 0.657 0.379
Q2 S&P 0.426 0.588
Q3 S&P 0.607 0.575
Q4 S&P 0.468 0.524
1st Down S&P 0.628 0.308
2nd Down S&P 0.486 0.470
3rd Down S&P 0.334 0.596
Projected Scoring Margin: Arizona State by 14.4
Actual Scoring Margin: Arizona State by 5

Both teams make huge special teams plays and explosive runs (ASU) and passes (ASU and Duke). Duke comes back from double digits down to take the lead, and ASU responds. Tension, release, etc. The week between Christmas and New Year's seemed to have more super-fun games than normal, and this was in that collection.

It really was a wonder ASU didn't run away with this, though. The Sun Devils had better field position, finished drives better, and benefited from some pretty severe turnovers luck. They probably should have won by two touchdowns, but Duke emptied the bag of special teams tricks and nearly stole the game.