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Independence Bowl Study Hall: South Carolina 24, Miami 21

Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

South Carolina 24, Miami 21

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Miami South Carolina Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 73 64
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 24.3 35.5 30.0
Possessions 11 12
Scoring Opportunities*
6 5
Points Per Opportunity 3.33 4.80 4.65
Leverage Rate** 64.4% 57.8% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.472 0.497 0.506
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Miami South Carolina
Total 23.1 23.1
Rushing 10.5 5.3
Passing 12.7 17.8
Success Rate (what's this?) Miami South Carolina Nat'l Avg
All (close) 38.4% 39.1% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 36.8% 35.7% 43.2%
Passing (close) 40.0% 41.7% 40.3%
Standard Downs 38.3% 40.5% 47.0%
Passing Downs 38.5% 37.0% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Miami South Carolina Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.83 0.92 0.86
Rushing (close) 0.75 0.53 0.74
Passing (close) 0.90 1.19 0.99
Standard Downs 0.79 0.53 0.77
Passing Downs 0.90 1.52 1.13
Line Stats Miami South Carolina Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.09 1.73 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 11.1% 6.3% 4.8%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 5.0% 7.6%
Turnovers Miami South Carolina
Turnovers 2 0
Turnover Points (what's this?) 6.7 0.0
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin Miami +0.51
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) South Carolina +0.51
TO Points Margin South Carolina +6.7 points
Situational Miami South Carolina
Q1 S&P 0.543 0.523
Q2 S&P 0.271 0.651
Q3 S&P 0.574 0.377
Q4 S&P 0.556 0.411
1st Down S&P 0.354 0.461
2nd Down S&P 0.540 0.557
3rd Down S&P 0.538 0.535
Projected Scoring Margin: South Carolina by 6.7
Actual Scoring Margin: South Carolina by 3

In the LSU-ND Study Hall, I said that most bowl teams seemed to show up and care this year. I really didn't think that was going to be the case in this one -- two disappointed 6-6 teams facing off in Shreveport -- but it was. Despite dreary weather and an iffy crowd, both the 'Cocks and 'Canes seemed to want this one.

Despite a pretty drastic field position advantage, Miami managed to create more scoring chances than South Carolina. But six opportunities resulted in only two touchdowns, three field goal attempts (one missed), and a turnover on downs. South Carolina missed two field goals but scored three times. That was the difference. Well, that and turnovers.

I'm really curious about both of these teams next year. Miami loses Duke Johnson but returns an older, wiser Brad Kaaya and quite a few strong defensive pieces. South Carolina loses its offensive identity (quarterback, running back) but has no choice but to get stronger defensively; it's almost impossible for the 'Cocks to get weaker in that regard. The future isn't looking incredible for either program at the moment, but each might (might) have just enough talent/experience to surprise next year.