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South Carolina 24, Miami 21
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Miami | South Carolina | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 73 | 64 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 24.3 | 35.5 | 30.0 |
| Possessions | 11 | 12 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
6 | 5 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 3.33 | 4.80 | 4.65 |
| Leverage Rate** | 64.4% | 57.8% | 68.3% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.472 | 0.497 | 0.506 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Miami | South Carolina | |
| Total | 23.1 | 23.1 | |
| Rushing | 10.5 | 5.3 | |
| Passing | 12.7 | 17.8 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Miami | South Carolina | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 38.4% | 39.1% | 41.8% |
| Rushing (close) | 36.8% | 35.7% | 43.2% |
| Passing (close) | 40.0% | 41.7% | 40.3% |
| Standard Downs | 38.3% | 40.5% | 47.0% |
| Passing Downs | 38.5% | 37.0% | 30.6% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Miami | South Carolina | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 0.83 | 0.92 | 0.86 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.75 | 0.53 | 0.74 |
| Passing (close) | 0.90 | 1.19 | 0.99 |
| Standard Downs | 0.79 | 0.53 | 0.77 |
| Passing Downs | 0.90 | 1.52 | 1.13 |
| Line Stats | Miami | South Carolina | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.09 | 1.73 | 2.92 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 11.1% | 6.3% | 4.8% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 5.0% | 7.6% |
| Turnovers | Miami | South Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 2 | 0 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 6.7 | 0.0 |
| Turnover Margin | +0 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Miami +0.51 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | South Carolina +0.51 | |
| TO Points Margin | South Carolina +6.7 points | |
| Situational | Miami | South Carolina |
| Q1 S&P | 0.543 | 0.523 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.271 | 0.651 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.574 | 0.377 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.556 | 0.411 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.354 | 0.461 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.540 | 0.557 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.538 | 0.535 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: South Carolina by 6.7 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: South Carolina by 3 | ||
In the LSU-ND Study Hall, I said that most bowl teams seemed to show up and care this year. I really didn't think that was going to be the case in this one -- two disappointed 6-6 teams facing off in Shreveport -- but it was. Despite dreary weather and an iffy crowd, both the 'Cocks and 'Canes seemed to want this one.
Despite a pretty drastic field position advantage, Miami managed to create more scoring chances than South Carolina. But six opportunities resulted in only two touchdowns, three field goal attempts (one missed), and a turnover on downs. South Carolina missed two field goals but scored three times. That was the difference. Well, that and turnovers.
I'm really curious about both of these teams next year. Miami loses Duke Johnson but returns an older, wiser Brad Kaaya and quite a few strong defensive pieces. South Carolina loses its offensive identity (quarterback, running back) but has no choice but to get stronger defensively; it's almost impossible for the 'Cocks to get weaker in that regard. The future isn't looking incredible for either program at the moment, but each might (might) have just enough talent/experience to surprise next year.