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Holiday Bowl Study Hall: USC 45, Nebraska 42

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USC 45, Nebraska 42

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Nebraska USC Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 94 73
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 38.8 23.9 30.0
Possessions 18 17
Scoring Opportunities*
10 6
Points Per Opportunity 4.20 6.33 4.65
Leverage Rate** 68.1% 69.9% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.516 0.552 0.506
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Nebraska USC
Total 36.5 33.5
Rushing 14.3 13.4
Passing 22.3 20.2
Success Rate (what's this?) Nebraska USC Nat'l Avg
All (close) 40.4% 41.1% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 32.5% 46.9% 43.2%
Passing (close) 46.3% 36.6% 40.3%
Standard Downs 43.8% 47.1% 47.0%
Passing Downs 33.3% 27.3% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Nebraska USC Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.96 1.12 0.86
Rushing (close) 1.10 0.89 0.74
Passing (close) 0.89 1.34 0.99
Standard Downs 0.68 1.01 0.77
Passing Downs 1.76 1.56 1.13
Line Stats Nebraska USC Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.09 3.67 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 9.4% 0.0% 4.8%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 14.3% 7.6%
Turnovers Nebraska USC
Turnovers 1 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 5.0 1.1
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin USC +0.15
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Nebraska +0.15
TO Points Margin USC +3.9 points
Situational Nebraska USC
Q1 S&P 0.540 0.360
Q2 S&P 0.331 0.614
Q3 S&P 0.609 0.831
Q4 S&P 0.543 0.216
1st Down S&P 0.493 0.613
2nd Down S&P 0.553 0.571
3rd Down S&P 0.487 0.352
Projected Scoring Margin: USC by 0.9
Actual Scoring Margin: USC by 3

Consider this another ABCD special. Always Be Closing Drives. Nebraska built a drastic field position advantage and matched USC in terms of success rates and, for the most part, big plays. And they created four more scoring opportunities than the Trojans. But their 10 opps generated five touchdowns, two field goals, two turnovers on downs, and a turnover. In six opps, USC scored five touchdowns and kicked a field goal. Toss in a kick return score, and you've got the final margin. Always be closing (drives).