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Alamo Bowl Study Hall: UCLA 40, Kansas State 35

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UCLA 40, Kansas State 35

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Kansas State UCLA Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 81 63
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 87.5%
Avg Starting FP 30.2 32.7 30.0
Possessions 13 13
Scoring Opportunities*
8 7
Points Per Opportunity 4.25 5.86 4.65
Leverage Rate** 66.7% 61.9% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.472 0.593 0.506
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Kansas State UCLA
Total 24.4 33.7
Rushing 7.0 25.3
Passing 17.4 8.4
Success Rate (what's this?) Kansas State UCLA Nat'l Avg
All (close) 41.3% 42.9% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 50.0% 43.2% 43.2%
Passing (close) 37.8% 42.3% 40.3%
Standard Downs 50.0% 48.7% 47.0%
Passing Downs 23.8% 33.3% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Kansas State UCLA Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.71 1.25 0.86
Rushing (close) 0.64 1.58 0.74
Passing (close) 0.74 0.77 0.99
Standard Downs 0.66 1.12 0.77
Passing Downs 0.93 1.55 1.13
Line Stats Kansas State UCLA Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.16 3.57 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 12.0% 0.0% 4.8%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 15.0% 20.0% 7.6%
Turnovers Kansas State UCLA
Turnovers 2 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 9.8 5.2
Turnover Margin UCLA +1
Exp. TO Margin Kansas State +0.22
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) UCLA +1.22
TO Points Margin UCLA +4.6 points
Situational Kansas State UCLA
Q1 S&P 0.313 0.665
Q2 S&P 0.303 0.627
Q3 S&P 0.536 0.501
Q4 S&P 0.643 0.531
1st Down S&P 0.505 0.590
2nd Down S&P 0.419 0.535
3rd Down S&P 0.389 0.580
Projected Scoring Margin: UCLA by 13.9
Actual Scoring Margin: UCLA by 5

Looking at full-game stats for this one doesn't feel quite right considering the margins of the first (UCLA 31, KSU 6) and second (KSU 29, UCLA 9) halves. UCLA basically won because the Bruins' big half was bigger, but dialing in a bit, KSU's pass protection was lacking (as was the Wildcats' ability to do anything positive on passing downs), and UCLA's big plays were bigger.

Or, to put it another way, UCLA had Paul Perkins (20 carries, 194 yards) and Deon Hollins (three sacks, two hurries), and KSU did not.