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Fiesta Bowl Study Hall: Boise State 38, Arizona 30

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Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Boise State 38, Arizona 30

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Arizona Boise State Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 106 69
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 29.4 24.0 30.0
Possessions 17 16
Scoring Opportunities*
9 6
Points Per Opportunity 3.33 5.17 4.65
Leverage Rate** 72.6% 68.1% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.464 0.525 0.506
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Arizona Boise State
Total 29.1 28.1
Rushing 13.7 11.7
Passing 15.5 16.4
Success Rate (what's this?) Arizona Boise State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 41.5% 40.6% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 47.9% 39.4% 43.2%
Passing (close) 36.2% 41.7% 40.3%
Standard Downs 46.8% 53.2% 47.0%
Passing Downs 27.6% 13.6% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Arizona Boise State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.66 1.00 0.86
Rushing (close) 0.59 0.90 0.74
Passing (close) 0.74 1.09 0.99
Standard Downs 0.61 0.94 0.77
Passing Downs 0.91 1.50 1.13
Line Stats Arizona Boise State Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.10 2.67 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 8.8% 0.0% 4.8%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 20.8% 5.9% 7.6%
Turnovers Arizona Boise State
Turnovers 2 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 11.1 10.2
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin Boise State +0.3
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Arizona +0.3
TO Points Margin Boise State +0.8 points
Situational Arizona Boise State
Q1 S&P 0.482 0.798
Q2 S&P 0.540 0.592
Q3 S&P 0.472 N/A
Q4 S&P 0.403 0.389
1st Down S&P 0.456 0.552
2nd Down S&P 0.495 0.446
3rd Down S&P 0.433 0.586
Projected Scoring Margin: Arizona by 0.2
Actual Scoring Margin: Boise State by 8

Such a strange flow to this game. Boise State barely did anything offensively in the last 40 minutes of the game -- see that "N/A" in Q3 S&P for Boise? That means the Broncos didn't have a single successful play in the entire quarter -- and left its defense on the field for 106 snaps. But the Broncos finished their drives in the end zone and avoided drastically negative plays (like, for instance, a 20.8 percent sack rate on passing downs). Arizona did not. The Wildcats did the dirty work but couldn't finish.

Also: pretty sure karma winked at Boise for trying another Statue of Liberty...