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Georgia 37, Louisville 14
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Georgia | Louisville | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 76 | 71 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 93.9% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 33.8 | 20.2 | 30.0 |
| Possessions | 13 | 13 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
10 | 3 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 3.70 | 4.67 | 4.65 |
| Leverage Rate** | 61.8% | 56.5% | 68.3% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.527 | 0.429 | 0.506 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Georgia | Louisville | |
| Total | 32.2 | 19.1 | |
| Rushing | 20.6 | 5.5 | |
| Passing | 11.6 | 13.6 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Georgia | Louisville | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 38.2% | 33.9% | 41.8% |
| Rushing (close) | 33.3% | 34.8% | 43.2% |
| Passing (close) | 48.0% | 33.3% | 40.3% |
| Standard Downs | 40.4% | 31.4% | 47.0% |
| Passing Downs | 34.5% | 37.0% | 30.6% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Georgia | Louisville | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.11 | 0.79 | 0.86 |
| Rushing (close) | 1.21 | 0.68 | 0.74 |
| Passing (close) | 0.97 | 0.86 | 0.99 |
| Standard Downs | 1.10 | 0.69 | 0.77 |
| Passing Downs | 1.13 | 0.90 | 1.13 |
| Line Stats | Georgia | Louisville | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 2.85 | 3.17 | 2.92 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.8% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 4.6% | 7.6% |
| Turnovers | Georgia | Louisville |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 2 | 3 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 6.7 | 9.9 |
| Turnover Margin | Georgia +1 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Georgia +1.54 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Louisville +0.54 | |
| TO Points Margin | Georgia +3.2 points | |
| Situational | Georgia | Louisville |
| Q1 S&P | 0.526 | 0.612 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.524 | 0.228 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.579 | 0.520 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.504 | 0.408 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.544 | 0.399 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.464 | 0.418 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.684 | 0.542 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Georgia by 16.3 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Georgia by 23 | ||
Strange year even by Dawg standards. A minor dud, a major dud, the requisite injuries, and 6-7 spectacular performances.
— Bill Connelly (@SBN_BillC) January 5, 2026
Georgia lost to South Carolina, lost badly to Florida, lost the best running back in college football midway through the season, lost the SEC East to a team it beat by 34 points on the road ... and finished fifth in the F/+ rankings. And I can totally justify it. Play for play, drive for drive, the Dawgs' brilliant moments outnumbered their mediocre ones. It's just that quite a few of those mediocre moments happened on two specific Saturdays in Jacksonville and Columbia East. Spread out those bad moments, and you go 12-1. Or better.
Regardless, the Dawgs finished the season by throughly demolishing a Louisville team that was 16th before the game and 22nd after it. And Nick Chubb got a million more yards. There are worse ways to end what was either an encouraging season, a thoroughly disappointing season, or both.
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