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Belk Bowl Study Hall: Georgia 37, Louisville 14

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Georgia 37, Louisville 14

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Georgia Louisville Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 76 71
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 93.9%
Avg Starting FP 33.8 20.2 30.0
Possessions 13 13
Scoring Opportunities*
10 3
Points Per Opportunity 3.70 4.67 4.65
Leverage Rate** 61.8% 56.5% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.527 0.429 0.506
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Georgia Louisville
Total 32.2 19.1
Rushing 20.6 5.5
Passing 11.6 13.6
Success Rate (what's this?) Georgia Louisville Nat'l Avg
All (close) 38.2% 33.9% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 33.3% 34.8% 43.2%
Passing (close) 48.0% 33.3% 40.3%
Standard Downs 40.4% 31.4% 47.0%
Passing Downs 34.5% 37.0% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Georgia Louisville Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.11 0.79 0.86
Rushing (close) 1.21 0.68 0.74
Passing (close) 0.97 0.86 0.99
Standard Downs 1.10 0.69 0.77
Passing Downs 1.13 0.90 1.13
Line Stats Georgia Louisville Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.85 3.17 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 7.1% 5.9% 4.8%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 4.6% 7.6%
Turnovers Georgia Louisville
Turnovers 2 3
Turnover Points (what's this?) 6.7 9.9
Turnover Margin Georgia +1
Exp. TO Margin Georgia +1.54
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Louisville +0.54
TO Points Margin Georgia +3.2 points
Situational Georgia Louisville
Q1 S&P 0.526 0.612
Q2 S&P 0.524 0.228
Q3 S&P 0.579 0.520
Q4 S&P 0.504 0.408
1st Down S&P 0.544 0.399
2nd Down S&P 0.464 0.418
3rd Down S&P 0.684 0.542
Projected Scoring Margin: Georgia by 16.3
Actual Scoring Margin: Georgia by 23

Georgia lost to South Carolina, lost badly to Florida, lost the best running back in college football midway through the season, lost the SEC East to a team it beat by 34 points on the road ... and finished fifth in the F/+ rankings. And I can totally justify it. Play for play, drive for drive, the Dawgs' brilliant moments outnumbered their mediocre ones. It's just that quite a few of those mediocre moments happened on two specific Saturdays in Jacksonville and Columbia East. Spread out those bad moments, and you go 12-1. Or better.

Regardless, the Dawgs finished the season by throughly demolishing a Louisville team that was 16th before the game and 22nd after it. And Nick Chubb got a million more yards. There are worse ways to end what was either an encouraging season, a thoroughly disappointing season, or both.