Michigan State 42, Baylor 41
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
|Basics||Baylor||Michigan State||Nat'l Avg|
|Close Rate (non-garbage time)||96.3%|
|Avg Starting FP||29.1||32.9||30.0|
|Points Per Opportunity||4.56||4.20||4.65|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
|EqPts (what's this?)||Baylor||Michigan State|
|Success Rate (what's this?)||Baylor||Michigan State||Nat'l Avg|
|IsoPPP (what's this?)||Baylor||Michigan State||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Stats||Baylor||Michigan State||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Yards/Carry (what's this?)||0.79||3.35||2.92|
|Std. Downs Sack Rt.||6.1%||0.0%||4.8%|
|Pass. Downs Sack Rt.||13.0%||6.7%||7.6%|
|Turnover Points (what's this?)||2.5||12.3|
|Turnover Margin||Baylor +1|
|Exp. TO Margin||+0|
|TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin)||Baylor +1|
|TO Points Margin||Baylor +9.8 points|
|1st Down S&P||0.637||0.583|
|2nd Down S&P||0.670||0.454|
|3rd Down S&P||0.430||0.733|
|Projected Scoring Margin: Baylor by 8.8|
|Actual Scoring Margin: Michigan State by 1|
Typically, when the projected (Baylor by 9) and actual scoring margins are so far apart, I look at two things for explanation: special teams and points per scoring opportunity. Special teams are easy enough to explain (the EqPts calculations don't really include them), and if you drive 98 yards, then turn the ball over at the 1, the EqPts calculations are giving you credit for those 98 yards and assuming you got a pretty good point total out of them.
Both teams were pretty close in terms of finishing drives, but not only did Baylor miss two field goals (which is accounted for in Points Per Opportunity), one was also blocked and returned into Baylor territory. Since State's own drive failures were accounted for in the projected total (because they were turnovers) and Baylor's weren't, there you go.
Or maybe it's as simple as State getting one more possession. Regardless, I'll stop thinking. This was a hell of a game.