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Michigan State 42, Baylor 41
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| Basics | Baylor | Michigan State | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 74 | 88 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 96.3% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 29.1 | 32.9 | 30.0 |
| Possessions | 13 | 14 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
9 | 10 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 4.56 | 4.20 | 4.65 |
| Leverage Rate** | 64.4% | 78.3% | 68.3% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.603 | 0.550 | 0.506 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Baylor | Michigan State | |
| Total | 39.4 | 40.4 | |
| Rushing | 2.1 | 20.2 | |
| Passing | 37.3 | 20.2 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Baylor | Michigan State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 48.0% | 45.8% | 41.8% |
| Rushing (close) | 41.2% | 46.5% | 43.2% |
| Passing (close) | 50.0% | 45.0% | 40.3% |
| Standard Downs | 55.3% | 47.7% | 47.0% |
| Passing Downs | 34.6% | 38.9% | 30.6% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Baylor | Michigan State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.10 | 0.92 | 0.86 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.30 | 1.00 | 0.74 |
| Passing (close) | 1.30 | 0.83 | 0.99 |
| Standard Downs | 0.96 | 0.90 | 0.77 |
| Passing Downs | 1.49 | 0.98 | 1.13 |
| Line Stats | Baylor | Michigan State | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 0.79 | 3.35 | 2.92 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 6.1% | 0.0% | 4.8% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 13.0% | 6.7% | 7.6% |
| Turnovers | Baylor | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 1 | 2 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 2.5 | 12.3 |
| Turnover Margin | Baylor +1 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | +0 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Baylor +1 | |
| TO Points Margin | Baylor +9.8 points | |
| Situational | Baylor | Michigan State |
| Q1 S&P | 0.709 | 0.577 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.587 | 0.418 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.715 | 0.612 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.421 | 0.700 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.637 | 0.583 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.670 | 0.454 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.430 | 0.733 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Baylor by 8.8 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Michigan State by 1 | ||
Typically, when the projected (Baylor by 9) and actual scoring margins are so far apart, I look at two things for explanation: special teams and points per scoring opportunity. Special teams are easy enough to explain (the EqPts calculations don't really include them), and if you drive 98 yards, then turn the ball over at the 1, the EqPts calculations are giving you credit for those 98 yards and assuming you got a pretty good point total out of them.
Both teams were pretty close in terms of finishing drives, but not only did Baylor miss two field goals (which is accounted for in Points Per Opportunity), one was also blocked and returned into Baylor territory. Since State's own drive failures were accounted for in the projected total (because they were turnovers) and Baylor's weren't, there you go.
Or maybe it's as simple as State getting one more possession. Regardless, I'll stop thinking. This was a hell of a game.
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