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Georgia Tech 49, Mississippi State 34
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Georgia Tech | Mississippi State | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 73 | 84 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 76.4% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 32.8 | 27.7 | 30.0 |
| Possessions | 12 | 12 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
9 | 9 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 5.44 | 3.78 | 4.65 |
| Leverage Rate** | 82.8% | 66.1% | 68.3% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.702 | 0.548 | 0.506 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Georgia Tech | Mississippi State | |
| Total | 41.7 | 37.7 | |
| Rushing | 33.2 | 9.8 | |
| Passing | 8.5 | 27.9 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Georgia Tech | Mississippi State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 62.5% | 46.4% | 41.8% |
| Rushing (close) | 66.7% | 45.0% | 43.2% |
| Passing (close) | 46.2% | 47.2% | 40.3% |
| Standard Downs | 66.0% | 56.8% | 47.0% |
| Passing Downs | 45.5% | 26.3% | 30.6% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Georgia Tech | Mississippi State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.01 | 0.88 | 0.86 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.94 | 0.73 | 0.74 |
| Passing (close) | 1.41 | 0.96 | 0.99 |
| Standard Downs | 0.94 | 0.87 | 0.77 |
| Passing Downs | 1.50 | 0.93 | 1.13 |
| Line Stats | Georgia Tech | Mississippi State | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 4.04 | 3.16 | 2.92 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 11.1% | 0.0% | 4.8% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 7.1% | 7.6% |
| Turnovers | Georgia Tech | Mississippi State |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 1 | 2 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 3.6 | 7.7 |
| Turnover Margin | Georgia Tech +1 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Georgia Tech +0.88 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Georgia Tech +0.12 | |
| TO Points Margin | Georgia Tech +4.1 points | |
| Situational | Georgia Tech | Mississippi State |
| Q1 S&P | 0.677 | 0.321 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.589 | 0.697 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.947 | 0.625 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.501 | 0.662 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.655 | 0.655 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.666 | 0.563 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.712 | 0.402 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Georgia Tech by 8.1 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Georgia Tech by 15 | ||
I'm still not sure people realize how good Georgia Tech was this year. The universal reaction after this game was "I can't believe State couldn't stop them! They had a month!" But the Jackets came into the game with the No. 1 offense in the country according to Off. F/+. In terms of F/+ ratings, they beat No. 5 Georgia, No. 9 Clemson, and No. 12 Mississippi State, and they lost to No. 10 FSU by two. They had down moments, sure, this was a damn strong team, one good enough offensively to overcome a decent but not amazing defense.
MSU was still the higher-ranked team heading into the game, and the Bulldogs losing by 15 points was still obviously disappointing. (And it certainly fit into the "What the hell, SEC West?" narrative.) But let's make sure to pause and give Tech some respect here. The Ramblin' Wreck had a hell of a year.
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