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Orange Bowl Study Hall: Georgia Tech 49, Mississippi State 34

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Brad Barr-USA TODAY Sports

Georgia Tech 49, Mississippi State 34

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Georgia Tech Mississippi State Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 73 84
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 76.4%
Avg Starting FP 32.8 27.7 30.0
Possessions 12 12
Scoring Opportunities*
9 9
Points Per Opportunity 5.44 3.78 4.65
Leverage Rate** 82.8% 66.1% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.702 0.548 0.506
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Georgia Tech Mississippi State
Total 41.7 37.7
Rushing 33.2 9.8
Passing 8.5 27.9
Success Rate (what's this?) Georgia Tech Mississippi State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 62.5% 46.4% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 66.7% 45.0% 43.2%
Passing (close) 46.2% 47.2% 40.3%
Standard Downs 66.0% 56.8% 47.0%
Passing Downs 45.5% 26.3% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Georgia Tech Mississippi State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.01 0.88 0.86
Rushing (close) 0.94 0.73 0.74
Passing (close) 1.41 0.96 0.99
Standard Downs 0.94 0.87 0.77
Passing Downs 1.50 0.93 1.13
Line Stats Georgia Tech Mississippi State Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 4.04 3.16 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 11.1% 0.0% 4.8%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 7.1% 7.6%
Turnovers Georgia Tech Mississippi State
Turnovers 1 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 3.6 7.7
Turnover Margin Georgia Tech +1
Exp. TO Margin Georgia Tech +0.88
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Georgia Tech +0.12
TO Points Margin Georgia Tech +4.1 points
Situational Georgia Tech Mississippi State
Q1 S&P 0.677 0.321
Q2 S&P 0.589 0.697
Q3 S&P 0.947 0.625
Q4 S&P 0.501 0.662
1st Down S&P 0.655 0.655
2nd Down S&P 0.666 0.563
3rd Down S&P 0.712 0.402
Projected Scoring Margin: Georgia Tech by 8.1
Actual Scoring Margin: Georgia Tech by 15

I'm still not sure people realize how good Georgia Tech was this year. The universal reaction after this game was "I can't believe State couldn't stop them! They had a month!" But the Jackets came into the game with the No. 1 offense in the country according to Off. F/+. In terms of F/+ ratings, they beat No. 5 Georgia, No. 9 Clemson, and No. 12 Mississippi State, and they lost to No. 10 FSU by two. They had down moments, sure, this was a damn strong team, one good enough offensively to overcome a decent but not amazing defense.

MSU was still the higher-ranked team heading into the game, and the Bulldogs losing by 15 points was still obviously disappointing. (And it certainly fit into the "What the hell, SEC West?" narrative.) But let's make sure to pause and give Tech some respect here. The Ramblin' Wreck had a hell of a year.