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Peach Bowl Study Hall: TCU 42, Ole Miss 3

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Kevin Liles-USA TODAY Sports

TCU 42, Ole Miss 3

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Ole Miss TCU Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 67 79
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 47.9%
Avg Starting FP 27.3 41.0 30.0
Possessions 16 15
Scoring Opportunities*
4 8
Points Per Opportunity 0.75 4.38 4.65
Leverage Rate** 52.0% 71.1% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.108 0.556 0.506
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Ole Miss TCU
Total 3.8 32.0
Rushing 0.2 11.9
Passing 3.6 20.1
Success Rate (what's this?) Ole Miss TCU Nat'l Avg
All (close) 8.0% 48.9% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 7.7% 50.0% 43.2%
Passing (close) 8.3% 48.0% 40.3%
Standard Downs 15.4% 46.9% 47.0%
Passing Downs 0.0% 53.9% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Ole Miss TCU Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.22 0.82 0.86
Rushing (close) 0.74 0.76 0.74
Passing (close) -0.31 0.88 0.99
Standard Downs 0.26 0.79 0.77
Passing Downs N/A 0.90 1.13
Line Stats Ole Miss TCU Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 0.88 3.37 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 25.0% 6.7% 4.8%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 25.0% 10.0% 7.6%
Turnovers Ole Miss TCU
Turnovers 4 4
Turnover Points (what's this?) 16.7 16.5
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin TCU +0.44
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Ole Miss +0.44
TO Points Margin TCU +0.2 points
Situational Ole Miss TCU
Q1 S&P 0.136 0.563
Q2 S&P 0.251 0.553
Q3 S&P 0.245 0.604
Q4 S&P 0.256 0.447
1st Down S&P 0.295 0.448
2nd Down S&P 0.237 0.604
3rd Down S&P 0.271 0.614
Projected Scoring Margin: TCU by 28.4
Actual Scoring Margin: TCU by 39

In terms of pure scoring opportunities created, this game should have finished somewhere in the neighborhood of TCU 37, Ole Miss 19. It was destined to be an easy TCU no matter what, despite four Horned Frog turnovers, but as bad as Ole Miss' offense was down-for-down, it was even worse when there were points on the line.

It's funny how things correct themselves, though. For much of the season, I was a little bit uneasy about Ole Miss' offensive ratings. They just felt a little too high for my tastes, even when Laquon Treadwell was healthy. This game knocked them out of the Off. F/+ top 30.

Those success rates. Guh.