TCU 42, Ole Miss 3
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|Basics||Ole Miss||TCU||Nat'l Avg|
|Close Rate (non-garbage time)||47.9%|
|Avg Starting FP||27.3||41.0||30.0|
|Points Per Opportunity||0.75||4.38||4.65|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
|EqPts (what's this?)||Ole Miss||TCU|
|Success Rate (what's this?)||Ole Miss||TCU||Nat'l Avg|
|IsoPPP (what's this?)||Ole Miss||TCU||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Stats||Ole Miss||TCU||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Yards/Carry (what's this?)||0.88||3.37||2.92|
|Std. Downs Sack Rt.||25.0%||6.7%||4.8%|
|Pass. Downs Sack Rt.||25.0%||10.0%||7.6%|
|Turnover Points (what's this?)||16.7||16.5|
|Exp. TO Margin||TCU +0.44|
|TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin)||Ole Miss +0.44|
|TO Points Margin||TCU +0.2 points|
|1st Down S&P||0.295||0.448|
|2nd Down S&P||0.237||0.604|
|3rd Down S&P||0.271||0.614|
|Projected Scoring Margin: TCU by 28.4|
|Actual Scoring Margin: TCU by 39|
In terms of pure scoring opportunities created, this game should have finished somewhere in the neighborhood of TCU 37, Ole Miss 19. It was destined to be an easy TCU no matter what, despite four Horned Frog turnovers, but as bad as Ole Miss' offense was down-for-down, it was even worse when there were points on the line.
It's funny how things correct themselves, though. For much of the season, I was a little bit uneasy about Ole Miss' offensive ratings. They just felt a little too high for my tastes, even when Laquon Treadwell was healthy. This game knocked them out of the Off. F/+ top 30.
Those success rates. Guh.