Ohio State 42, Alabama 35
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|Basics||Alabama||Ohio State||Nat'l Avg|
|Close Rate (non-garbage time)||100.0%|
|Avg Starting FP||32.8||18.2||30.0|
|Points Per Opportunity||5.83||5.67||4.65|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
|EqPts (what's this?)||Alabama||Ohio State|
|Success Rate (what's this?)||Alabama||Ohio State||Nat'l Avg|
|IsoPPP (what's this?)||Alabama||Ohio State||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Stats||Alabama||Ohio State||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Yards/Carry (what's this?)||3.80||2.56||2.92|
|Std. Downs Sack Rt.||6.7%||9.1%||4.8%|
|Pass. Downs Sack Rt.||11.1%||5.9%||7.6%|
|Turnover Points (what's this?)||14.5||10.4|
|Turnover Margin||Ohio State +1|
|Exp. TO Margin||Alabama +1.46|
|TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin)||Ohio State +2.46|
|TO Points Margin||Ohio State +4.0 points|
|1st Down S&P||0.657||0.452|
|2nd Down S&P||0.568||0.487|
|3rd Down S&P||0.239||0.711|
|Projected Scoring Margin: Ohio State by 8.7|
|Actual Scoring Margin: Ohio State by 7|
I would put the odds of Alabama losing a game in which it holds a drastic, 14.6-yard field position advantage at like 1%, maybe 2% if the Tide are playing the Seattle Seahawks. Throw in a pretty significant efficiency advantage as well, and I'd probably cut that in half.
So how did Ohio State actually win? Big plays and third downs, mostly. Alabama had four gains of 20+ yards, and the Buckeyes had eight. And while Bama had plenty of success on standard downs/first downs, third downs and passing downs skewed significantly in Ohio State's favor. That eventually resulted in some quick possessions and a couple of awful interceptions. That'll do it.