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Rose Bowl Study Hall: Oregon 59, Florida State 20

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Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Oregon 59, Florida State 20

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Florida State Oregon Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 87 84
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 79.5%
Avg Starting FP 27.9 31.3 30.0
Possessions 15 14
Scoring Opportunities*
7 9
Points Per Opportunity 2.86 5.78 4.65
Leverage Rate** 71.2% 81.0% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.590 0.656 0.506
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Florida State Oregon
Total 28.6 45.9
Rushing 13.1 24.2
Passing 15.6 21.8
Success Rate (what's this?) Florida State Oregon Nat'l Avg
All (close) 57.5% 58.7% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 62.5% 58.6% 43.2%
Passing (close) 53.7% 58.8% 40.3%
Standard Downs 63.5% 60.8% 47.0%
Passing Downs 42.9% 50.0% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Florida State Oregon Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.65 0.93 0.86
Rushing (close) 0.63 0.77 0.74
Passing (close) 0.66 1.07 0.99
Standard Downs 0.66 0.95 0.77
Passing Downs 0.59 0.81 1.13
Line Stats Florida State Oregon Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.45 3.97 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 3.7% 0.0% 4.8%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 7.1% 0.0% 7.6%
Turnovers Florida State Oregon
Turnovers 5 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 26.2 6.2
Turnover Margin Oregon +3
Exp. TO Margin Oregon +3.65
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Florida State +0.65
TO Points Margin Oregon +20.0 points
Situational Florida State Oregon
Q1 S&P 0.454 0.529
Q2 S&P 0.720 0.599
Q3 S&P 0.593 0.963
Q4 S&P 0.320 0.597
1st Down S&P 0.605 0.668
2nd Down S&P 0.550 0.582
3rd Down S&P 0.491 0.606
Projected Scoring Margin: Oregon by 37.3
Actual Scoring Margin: Oregon by 39

So Oregon finished drives much better, avoided passing downs better, produced bigger big plays, avoided sacks, played better in the first, third, and fourth quarters, and dominated the turnover margin despite a little bit of bad turnovers luck. But other than that, the game could have gone either way, I think.

(One red flag for Oregon: if Florida State could manage a 57.5% success rate, Ohio State could hit 67.5%. The Buckeyes are crazy-efficient. So are the Ducks, but you get what I'm saying.)