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Oregon 59, Florida State 20
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| Basics | Florida State | Oregon | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 87 | 84 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 79.5% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 27.9 | 31.3 | 30.0 |
| Possessions | 15 | 14 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
7 | 9 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 2.86 | 5.78 | 4.65 |
| Leverage Rate** | 71.2% | 81.0% | 68.3% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.590 | 0.656 | 0.506 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Florida State | Oregon | |
| Total | 28.6 | 45.9 | |
| Rushing | 13.1 | 24.2 | |
| Passing | 15.6 | 21.8 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Florida State | Oregon | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 57.5% | 58.7% | 41.8% |
| Rushing (close) | 62.5% | 58.6% | 43.2% |
| Passing (close) | 53.7% | 58.8% | 40.3% |
| Standard Downs | 63.5% | 60.8% | 47.0% |
| Passing Downs | 42.9% | 50.0% | 30.6% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Florida State | Oregon | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 0.65 | 0.93 | 0.86 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.63 | 0.77 | 0.74 |
| Passing (close) | 0.66 | 1.07 | 0.99 |
| Standard Downs | 0.66 | 0.95 | 0.77 |
| Passing Downs | 0.59 | 0.81 | 1.13 |
| Line Stats | Florida State | Oregon | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.45 | 3.97 | 2.92 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 3.7% | 0.0% | 4.8% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 7.1% | 0.0% | 7.6% |
| Turnovers | Florida State | Oregon |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 5 | 2 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 26.2 | 6.2 |
| Turnover Margin | Oregon +3 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Oregon +3.65 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Florida State +0.65 | |
| TO Points Margin | Oregon +20.0 points | |
| Situational | Florida State | Oregon |
| Q1 S&P | 0.454 | 0.529 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.720 | 0.599 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.593 | 0.963 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.320 | 0.597 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.605 | 0.668 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.550 | 0.582 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.491 | 0.606 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Oregon by 37.3 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Oregon by 39 | ||
So Oregon finished drives much better, avoided passing downs better, produced bigger big plays, avoided sacks, played better in the first, third, and fourth quarters, and dominated the turnover margin despite a little bit of bad turnovers luck. But other than that, the game could have gone either way, I think.
(One red flag for Oregon: if Florida State could manage a 57.5% success rate, Ohio State could hit 67.5%. The Buckeyes are crazy-efficient. So are the Ducks, but you get what I'm saying.)
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