College football turnovers luck in 2014

By this point, we've talked a lot about turnovers luck through the years. I reference it each year in my preseason preview series, and I figure most of the concepts are pretty easy to understand.

The concepts are pretty simple: Over time, you're going to recover about 50 percent of all fumbles, but in a given year, you might recover 70 percent, or you might recover 30. The same goes with passes defensed; on average, you can expect to intercept about 22 percent of the passes you defense. (Passes defensed = interceptions + break-ups.) This is a bit mushier a concept ... but over time a particularly butter-fingered year will be balanced by a sticky one.

The way I measure turnovers luck is pretty simple: how far were you from 50% with your fumble recoveries? How far were you from ~21-22% in your interceptions-to-breakups, offensively and defensively? By looking at broader numbers, we can basically create an expected turnover margin (called Adj. TO Margin below) and compare it to the real margin. The difference becomes your Turnovers Luck for the season. On average, a turnover is worth about five points in terms of field position value, so I take the difference between turnovers and expected turnovers, multiply it by five, divide it by games played, and voila: Turnovers Luck Per Game.

In 2013, Houston nearly broke the scale, averaging more than eight points per game in turnovers luck. In 2014, the luck regressed, the results faded, and the head coach got fired.

In 2013, Oklahoma recovered 68.8% of all fumbles in their games and went 7-0 in games decided by 14 or fewer points. In 2014, the Sooners recovered 38.7% of fumbles and went 3-3 in such games. From the post linked above:

The Sooners were quite good (lucky) at falling on the bouncy, pointy ball this past season, and it helped them to win an improbable 11 games. They were 3-0 in one-possession games and 7-0 in games decided by 14 or fewer points. They recovered all three fumbles against Oklahoma State (two of theirs, one of OSU's) in a game in which they trailed until the final 20 seconds, and they recovered all four fumbles against Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, taking one of Bama's back for a touchdown. OU played well in tight games, but the Sooners got help. (You might want to remember that when you're getting ready to put OU in your preseason top 5 this coming year. You know you're going to, and you know you're probably making a mistake.)

In 2013, Utah was waylaid by more than five points per game in bad turnovers luck and lost five games by 12 or fewer points. In 2014, the Utes' turnovers luck went back toward neutral, and they improved from 5-7 to 9-4.

These things don't always matter, but they can sometimes make the difference between an average season and a great/terrible one; they can get coaches raises, or they can get coaches fired. And heading into 2015, they might provide us with a pretty tenuous glimpse at TCU's potential national title hopes. The Horned Frogs are likely to be consensus top-5 picks next year, returning a ton of talent from a 12-1 team. But interceptions, caught by their defense and dropped by opposing defenses, may have gone a little too far in their favor to replicate next fall.

Meanwhile, teams like Washington, Michigan State, and Oregon may have been a little too fortunate in falling on fumbles, just as teams like Oklahoma State and West Virginia may have been a little too unfortunate in that regard.

Here's a look at 2014's turnovers luck, color-coded through each primary category -- fumble recovery percentage (mean = 50%), interception-to-PBU ratio for offense and defense, etc. -- and sorted by 2014 turnovers luck per game.