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We talk a lot about pace in college football, and while simply looking at the number of plays will give you a pretty good idea of how fast a team was moving, I've mentioned before that I like breaking things out by run and pass. Teams that pass a high frequency of the time are going to probably attempt more plays because of clock stoppages et al. But I like to create an "Expected Plays" figure based on a team's run-pass rates, then compare their total plays to that.
(I've also tinkered with making further adjustments by looking at the average number of plays their opponents typically faced -- if you played Baylor, for instance, you probably attempted a lot of plays in that game because THEY attempted a lot of plays -- but I haven't gotten incredibly far with that data. So keep that in mind when looking at this.)
Below are last year's FBS teams ranked by how many more plays they ran compared to the expectation. Expectations were set by simply creating a regression equation from run-pass rates and national averages. Nothing too fancy here, but this is basically where I get the "Adj. Pace" figure for my team previews.
The results are reasonably similar to looking at plays per game. The three most up-tempo teams in the country were Marshall, Louisiana Tech, and Nevada no matter how you gauge it. But run-happy teams like Tulsa, Oregon, Rice, and (especially) Air Force get a bump here. Meanwhile, wow, did Auburn just try to run out the clock from the opening kickoff.
Enjoy.
Offense | Games | Plays | Rushes | Passes | Plays/ Game |
Rk | Rushes/ Game |
Passes/ Game |
% Run | Expected Plays |
Diff | Rk |
Marshall | 12 | 1087 | 452 | 635 | 90.6 | 1 | 37.7 | 52.9 | 0.416 | 72.5 | +18.1 | 1 |
Louisiana Tech | 12 | 1052 | 512 | 540 | 87.7 | 2 | 42.7 | 45.0 | 0.487 | 71.5 | +16.1 | 2 |
Nevada | 13 | 1080 | 656 | 424 | 83.1 | 3 | 50.5 | 32.6 | 0.607 | 69.8 | +13.3 | 3 |
Tulsa | 14 | 1159 | 681 | 478 | 82.8 | 5 | 48.6 | 34.1 | 0.588 | 70.1 | +12.7 | 4 |
Oregon | 13 | 1059 | 669 | 390 | 81.5 | 9 | 51.5 | 30.0 | 0.632 | 69.5 | +12.0 | 5 |
Baylor | 13 | 1072 | 578 | 494 | 82.5 | 6 | 44.5 | 38.0 | 0.539 | 70.8 | +11.7 | 6 |
Arizona | 13 | 1080 | 526 | 554 | 83.1 | 3 | 40.5 | 42.6 | 0.487 | 71.5 | +11.6 | 7 |
Clemson | 13 | 1061 | 557 | 504 | 81.6 | 8 | 42.8 | 38.8 | 0.525 | 71.0 | +10.6 | 8 |
Houston | 12 | 984 | 375 | 609 | 82.0 | 7 | 31.3 | 50.8 | 0.381 | 73.0 | +9.0 | 9 |
Rice | 13 | 1025 | 592 | 433 | 78.8 | 14 | 45.5 | 33.3 | 0.578 | 70.2 | +8.6 | 10 |
Ball State | 13 | 1035 | 529 | 506 | 79.6 | 12 | 40.7 | 38.9 | 0.511 | 71.2 | +8.4 | 11 |
Troy | 12 | 963 | 442 | 521 | 80.3 | 10 | 36.8 | 43.4 | 0.459 | 71.9 | +8.3 | 12 |
Syracuse | 13 | 1028 | 540 | 488 | 79.1 | 13 | 41.5 | 37.5 | 0.525 | 71.0 | +8.1 | 13 |
Arizona State | 13 | 1012 | 561 | 451 | 77.8 | 18 | 43.2 | 34.7 | 0.554 | 70.6 | +7.3 | 14 |
NC State | 13 | 1037 | 432 | 605 | 79.8 | 11 | 33.2 | 46.5 | 0.417 | 72.5 | +7.2 | 15 |
Oklahoma State | 13 | 1014 | 507 | 507 | 78.0 | 16 | 39.0 | 39.0 | 0.500 | 71.3 | +6.7 | 16 |
Air Force | 13 | 952 | 795 | 157 | 73.2 | 40 | 61.2 | 12.1 | 0.835 | 66.6 | +6.6 | 17 |
UCLA | 14 | 1090 | 547 | 543 | 77.9 | 17 | 39.1 | 38.8 | 0.502 | 71.3 | +6.5 | 18 |
Ohio | 13 | 996 | 569 | 427 | 76.6 | 24 | 43.8 | 32.8 | 0.571 | 70.3 | +6.3 | 19 |
Penn State | 12 | 930 | 454 | 476 | 77.5 | 20 | 37.8 | 39.7 | 0.488 | 71.5 | +6.0 | 20 |
Akron | 12 | 945 | 342 | 603 | 78.8 | 15 | 28.5 | 50.3 | 0.362 | 73.3 | +5.5 | 21 |
BYU | 13 | 1000 | 475 | 525 | 76.9 | 23 | 36.5 | 40.4 | 0.475 | 71.7 | +5.2 | 22 |
Fresno State | 13 | 1006 | 443 | 563 | 77.4 | 21 | 34.1 | 43.3 | 0.440 | 72.2 | +5.2 | 23 |
Indiana | 12 | 934 | 381 | 553 | 77.8 | 19 | 31.8 | 46.1 | 0.408 | 72.6 | +5.2 | 24 |
West Virginia | 13 | 1001 | 446 | 555 | 77.0 | 22 | 34.3 | 42.7 | 0.446 | 72.1 | +4.9 | 25 |
Offense | Games | Plays | Rushes | Passes | Plays/ Game |
Rk | Rushes/ Game |
Passes/ Game |
% Run | Expected Plays |
Diff | Rk |
Nebraska | 14 | 1040 | 627 | 413 | 74.3 | 31 | 44.8 | 29.5 | 0.603 | 69.9 | +4.4 | 26 |
Army | 12 | 847 | 730 | 117 | 70.6 | 59 | 60.8 | 9.8 | 0.862 | 66.2 | +4.4 | 27 |
Georgia Tech | 14 | 1000 | 794 | 206 | 71.4 | 51 | 56.7 | 14.7 | 0.794 | 67.2 | +4.3 | 28 |
Northwestern | 13 | 964 | 579 | 385 | 74.2 | 34 | 44.5 | 29.6 | 0.601 | 69.9 | +4.2 | 29 |
Western Michigan | 12 | 915 | 384 | 531 | 76.3 | 26 | 32.0 | 44.3 | 0.420 | 72.5 | +3.8 | 30 |
Duke | 13 | 989 | 420 | 569 | 76.1 | 27 | 32.3 | 43.8 | 0.425 | 72.4 | +3.7 | 31 |
UL-Monroe | 13 | 988 | 423 | 565 | 76.0 | 28 | 32.5 | 43.5 | 0.428 | 72.4 | +3.6 | 32 |
North Carolina | 12 | 897 | 446 | 451 | 74.8 | 29 | 37.2 | 37.6 | 0.497 | 71.4 | +3.4 | 33 |
Texas Tech | 13 | 992 | 380 | 612 | 76.3 | 25 | 29.2 | 47.1 | 0.383 | 73.0 | +3.3 | 34 |
Ole Miss | 13 | 961 | 519 | 442 | 73.9 | 35 | 39.9 | 34.0 | 0.540 | 70.8 | +3.2 | 35 |
Northern Illinois | 14 | 1023 | 596 | 427 | 73.1 | 42 | 42.6 | 30.5 | 0.583 | 70.2 | +2.9 | 36 |
Kansas | 12 | 871 | 533 | 338 | 72.6 | 46 | 44.4 | 28.2 | 0.612 | 69.8 | +2.8 | 37 |
Toledo | 13 | 961 | 494 | 467 | 73.9 | 35 | 38.0 | 35.9 | 0.514 | 71.1 | +2.8 | 38 |
Arkansas State | 13 | 951 | 525 | 426 | 73.2 | 41 | 40.4 | 32.8 | 0.552 | 70.6 | +2.6 | 39 |
Texas A&M | 13 | 959 | 479 | 480 | 73.8 | 37 | 36.8 | 36.9 | 0.499 | 71.3 | +2.4 | 40 |
Tennessee | 12 | 890 | 406 | 484 | 74.2 | 32 | 33.8 | 40.3 | 0.456 | 72.0 | +2.2 | 41 |
Michigan State | 13 | 956 | 470 | 486 | 73.5 | 38 | 36.2 | 37.4 | 0.492 | 71.5 | +2.1 | 42 |
UAB | 12 | 894 | 374 | 520 | 74.5 | 30 | 31.2 | 43.3 | 0.418 | 72.5 | +2.0 | 43 |
Virginia | 12 | 890 | 392 | 498 | 74.2 | 32 | 32.7 | 41.5 | 0.440 | 72.2 | +2.0 | 44 |
Purdue | 13 | 956 | 450 | 506 | 73.5 | 38 | 34.6 | 38.9 | 0.471 | 71.8 | +1.8 | 45 |
Virginia Tech | 13 | 943 | 482 | 461 | 72.5 | 47 | 37.1 | 35.5 | 0.511 | 71.2 | +1.4 | 46 |
Buffalo | 12 | 862 | 459 | 403 | 71.8 | 50 | 38.3 | 33.6 | 0.532 | 70.9 | +1.0 | 47 |
East Carolina | 13 | 946 | 430 | 516 | 72.8 | 44 | 33.1 | 39.7 | 0.455 | 72.0 | +0.8 | 48 |
Missouri | 12 | 867 | 424 | 443 | 72.3 | 48 | 35.3 | 36.9 | 0.489 | 71.5 | +0.8 | 49 |
South Alabama | 13 | 936 | 456 | 480 | 72.0 | 49 | 35.1 | 36.9 | 0.487 | 71.5 | +0.5 | 50 |
Offense | Games | Plays | Rushes | Passes | Plays/ Game |
Rk | Rushes/ Game |
Passes/ Game |
% Run | Expected Plays |
Diff | Rk |
Oregon State | 13 | 946 | 408 | 538 | 72.8 | 44 | 31.4 | 41.4 | 0.431 | 72.3 | +0.5 | 51 |
North Texas | 12 | 850 | 473 | 377 | 70.8 | 56 | 39.4 | 31.4 | 0.556 | 70.5 | +0.3 | 52 |
Florida International | 12 | 854 | 452 | 402 | 71.2 | 52 | 37.7 | 33.5 | 0.529 | 70.9 | +0.2 | 53 |
Ohio State | 12 | 836 | 530 | 306 | 69.7 | 64 | 44.2 | 25.5 | 0.634 | 69.4 | +0.2 | 54 |
Iowa State | 13 | 923 | 445 | 478 | 71.0 | 54 | 34.2 | 36.8 | 0.482 | 71.6 | -0.6 | 55 |
Wyoming | 12 | 850 | 415 | 435 | 70.8 | 56 | 34.6 | 36.3 | 0.488 | 71.5 | -0.7 | 56 |
TCU | 13 | 911 | 483 | 428 | 70.1 | 63 | 37.2 | 32.9 | 0.530 | 70.9 | -0.8 | 57 |
Massachusetts | 12 | 854 | 378 | 476 | 71.2 | 52 | 31.5 | 39.7 | 0.443 | 72.2 | -1.0 | 58 |
UNLV | 13 | 918 | 427 | 491 | 70.6 | 58 | 32.8 | 37.8 | 0.465 | 71.8 | -1.2 | 59 |
Louisville | 13 | 915 | 432 | 483 | 70.4 | 61 | 33.2 | 37.2 | 0.472 | 71.7 | -1.3 | 60 |
San Jose State | 13 | 914 | 421 | 493 | 70.3 | 62 | 32.4 | 37.9 | 0.461 | 71.9 | -1.6 | 61 |
Oklahoma | 13 | 921 | 387 | 534 | 70.8 | 55 | 29.8 | 41.1 | 0.420 | 72.5 | -1.6 | 62 |
San Diego State | 13 | 885 | 543 | 342 | 68.1 | 81 | 41.8 | 26.3 | 0.614 | 69.7 | -1.7 | 63 |
South Florida | 12 | 836 | 405 | 431 | 69.7 | 64 | 33.8 | 35.9 | 0.484 | 71.6 | -1.9 | 64 |
UTEP | 12 | 831 | 425 | 406 | 69.3 | 69 | 35.4 | 33.8 | 0.511 | 71.2 | -1.9 | 65 |
Notre Dame | 13 | 893 | 488 | 405 | 68.7 | 75 | 37.5 | 31.2 | 0.546 | 70.7 | -2.0 | 66 |
Hawaii | 12 | 836 | 399 | 437 | 69.7 | 64 | 33.3 | 36.4 | 0.477 | 71.7 | -2.0 | 67 |
Washington | 13 | 904 | 428 | 476 | 69.5 | 67 | 32.9 | 36.6 | 0.473 | 71.7 | -2.2 | 68 |
Texas | 13 | 891 | 477 | 414 | 68.5 | 77 | 36.7 | 31.8 | 0.535 | 70.8 | -2.3 | 69 |
SMU | 13 | 916 | 366 | 550 | 70.5 | 60 | 28.2 | 42.3 | 0.400 | 72.8 | -2.3 | 70 |
New Mexico | 13 | 841 | 677 | 164 | 64.7 | 109 | 52.1 | 12.6 | 0.805 | 67.0 | -2.3 | 71 |
Washington State | 12 | 875 | 195 | 680 | 72.9 | 43 | 16.3 | 56.7 | 0.223 | 75.3 | -2.4 | 72 |
LSU | 13 | 883 | 495 | 388 | 67.9 | 84 | 38.1 | 29.8 | 0.561 | 70.5 | -2.6 | 73 |
Utah State | 13 | 892 | 456 | 436 | 68.6 | 76 | 35.1 | 33.5 | 0.511 | 71.2 | -2.6 | 74 |
Bowling Green | 13 | 895 | 438 | 457 | 68.8 | 72 | 33.7 | 35.2 | 0.489 | 71.5 | -2.6 | 75 |
Offense | Games | Plays | Rushes | Passes | Plays/ Game |
Rk | Rushes/ Game |
Passes/ Game |
% Run | Expected Plays |
Diff | Rk |
Kent State | 14 | 942 | 563 | 379 | 67.3 | 88 | 40.2 | 27.1 | 0.598 | 70.0 | -2.7 | 76 |
Middle Tennessee | 12 | 812 | 461 | 351 | 67.7 | 86 | 38.4 | 29.3 | 0.568 | 70.4 | -2.7 | 77 |
Colorado | 12 | 829 | 376 | 453 | 69.1 | 70 | 31.3 | 37.8 | 0.454 | 72.0 | -2.9 | 78 |
Stanford | 14 | 946 | 529 | 417 | 67.6 | 87 | 37.8 | 29.8 | 0.559 | 70.5 | -2.9 | 79 |
Wake Forest | 12 | 829 | 375 | 454 | 69.1 | 70 | 31.3 | 37.8 | 0.452 | 72.0 | -2.9 | 80 |
Florida Atlantic | 12 | 826 | 384 | 442 | 68.8 | 73 | 32.0 | 36.8 | 0.465 | 71.8 | -3.0 | 81 |
Wisconsin | 14 | 924 | 607 | 317 | 66.0 | 100 | 43.4 | 22.6 | 0.657 | 69.1 | -3.1 | 82 |
Vanderbilt | 13 | 873 | 502 | 371 | 67.2 | 90 | 38.6 | 28.5 | 0.575 | 70.3 | -3.1 | 83 |
California | 12 | 817 | 414 | 403 | 68.1 | 79 | 34.5 | 33.6 | 0.507 | 71.2 | -3.2 | 84 |
Pittsburgh | 13 | 884 | 451 | 433 | 68.0 | 82 | 34.7 | 33.3 | 0.510 | 71.2 | -3.2 | 85 |
UTSA | 10 | 680 | 344 | 336 | 68.0 | 82 | 34.4 | 33.6 | 0.506 | 71.3 | -3.3 | 86 |
Arkansas | 12 | 825 | 349 | 476 | 68.8 | 74 | 29.1 | 39.7 | 0.423 | 72.4 | -3.7 | 87 |
Boise State | 13 | 872 | 469 | 403 | 67.1 | 91 | 36.1 | 31.0 | 0.538 | 70.8 | -3.7 | 88 |
UL-Lafayette | 13 | 872 | 467 | 405 | 67.1 | 91 | 35.9 | 31.2 | 0.536 | 70.8 | -3.8 | 89 |
Miami-OH | 12 | 834 | 302 | 532 | 69.5 | 68 | 25.2 | 44.3 | 0.362 | 73.3 | -3.8 | 90 |
Central Florida | 14 | 937 | 504 | 433 | 66.9 | 94 | 36.0 | 30.9 | 0.538 | 70.8 | -3.9 | 91 |
Florida State | 14 | 938 | 486 | 452 | 67.0 | 93 | 34.7 | 32.3 | 0.518 | 71.1 | -4.1 | 92 |
Miami-FL | 12 | 818 | 354 | 464 | 68.2 | 78 | 29.5 | 38.7 | 0.433 | 72.3 | -4.1 | 93 |
Cincinnati | 13 | 863 | 477 | 386 | 66.4 | 96 | 36.7 | 29.7 | 0.553 | 70.6 | -4.2 | 94 |
Connecticut | 12 | 807 | 386 | 421 | 67.3 | 89 | 32.2 | 35.1 | 0.478 | 71.6 | -4.4 | 95 |
Southern Miss | 12 | 791 | 450 | 341 | 65.9 | 101 | 37.5 | 28.4 | 0.569 | 70.4 | -4.4 | 96 |
Utah | 12 | 796 | 421 | 375 | 66.3 | 97 | 35.1 | 31.3 | 0.529 | 70.9 | -4.6 | 97 |
Georgia | 14 | 922 | 499 | 423 | 65.9 | 103 | 35.6 | 30.2 | 0.541 | 70.8 | -4.9 | 98 |
Boston College | 12 | 817 | 312 | 505 | 68.1 | 79 | 26.0 | 42.1 | 0.382 | 73.0 | -4.9 | 99 |
Illinois | 12 | 795 | 404 | 391 | 66.3 | 98 | 33.7 | 32.6 | 0.508 | 71.2 | -5.0 | 100 |
Offense | Games | Plays | Rushes | Passes | Plays/ Game |
Rk | Rushes/ Game |
Passes/ Game |
% Run | Expected Plays |
Diff | Rk |
Minnesota | 13 | 846 | 496 | 350 | 65.1 | 108 | 38.2 | 26.9 | 0.586 | 70.1 | -5.0 | 101 |
South Carolina | 13 | 855 | 453 | 402 | 65.8 | 104 | 34.8 | 30.9 | 0.530 | 70.9 | -5.1 | 102 |
Kansas State | 13 | 840 | 512 | 328 | 64.6 | 110 | 39.4 | 25.2 | 0.610 | 69.8 | -5.2 | 103 |
Navy | 13 | 808 | 631 | 177 | 62.2 | 123 | 48.5 | 13.6 | 0.781 | 67.4 | -5.2 | 104 |
Iowa | 12 | 793 | 382 | 411 | 66.1 | 99 | 31.8 | 34.3 | 0.482 | 71.6 | -5.5 | 105 |
Memphis | 12 | 771 | 466 | 305 | 64.3 | 113 | 38.8 | 25.4 | 0.604 | 69.9 | -5.6 | 106 |
Alabama | 14 | 898 | 547 | 351 | 64.1 | 115 | 39.1 | 25.1 | 0.609 | 69.8 | -5.6 | 107 |
Western Kentucky | 13 | 839 | 481 | 358 | 64.5 | 112 | 37.0 | 27.5 | 0.573 | 70.3 | -5.8 | 108 |
Kentucky | 12 | 789 | 378 | 411 | 65.8 | 105 | 31.5 | 34.3 | 0.479 | 71.6 | -5.9 | 109 |
Maryland | 12 | 775 | 433 | 342 | 64.6 | 111 | 36.1 | 28.5 | 0.559 | 70.5 | -5.9 | 110 |
Tulane | 12 | 815 | 248 | 567 | 67.9 | 85 | 20.7 | 47.3 | 0.304 | 74.1 | -6.2 | 111 |
Idaho | 12 | 797 | 326 | 471 | 66.4 | 95 | 27.2 | 39.3 | 0.409 | 72.6 | -6.2 | 112 |
New Mexico State | 12 | 791 | 348 | 443 | 65.9 | 101 | 29.0 | 36.9 | 0.440 | 72.2 | -6.3 | 113 |
Florida | 13 | 825 | 501 | 324 | 63.5 | 117 | 38.5 | 24.9 | 0.607 | 69.8 | -6.4 | 114 |
Mississippi State | 13 | 848 | 406 | 442 | 65.2 | 107 | 31.2 | 34.0 | 0.479 | 71.6 | -6.4 | 115 |
Temple | 11 | 689 | 448 | 241 | 62.6 | 121 | 40.7 | 21.9 | 0.650 | 69.2 | -6.6 | 116 |
USC | 13 | 851 | 376 | 475 | 65.5 | 106 | 28.9 | 36.5 | 0.442 | 72.2 | -6.7 | 117 |
Texas State | 12 | 771 | 385 | 386 | 64.3 | 113 | 32.1 | 32.2 | 0.499 | 71.3 | -7.1 | 118 |
Michigan | 13 | 818 | 484 | 334 | 62.9 | 120 | 37.2 | 25.7 | 0.592 | 70.0 | -7.1 | 119 |
Eastern Michigan | 12 | 756 | 426 | 330 | 63.0 | 119 | 35.5 | 27.5 | 0.563 | 70.4 | -7.4 | 120 |
Rutgers | 13 | 823 | 420 | 403 | 63.3 | 118 | 32.3 | 31.0 | 0.510 | 71.2 | -7.9 | 121 |
Central Michigan | 13 | 826 | 400 | 426 | 63.5 | 116 | 30.8 | 32.8 | 0.484 | 71.6 | -8.0 | 122 |
Colorado State | 12 | 750 | 369 | 381 | 62.5 | 122 | 30.8 | 31.8 | 0.492 | 71.5 | -9.0 | 123 |
Auburn | 12 | 695 | 401 | 294 | 57.9 | 124 | 33.4 | 24.5 | 0.577 | 70.2 | -12.3 | 124 |
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